Little Rock Population Estimates

[ndark]

Wow. Nice increases both. Additional comments and updates:

MSA - 696,746

If this is accurate, the MSA will most certainly break the 700K barrier for the '10 census, reflecting an increase of 86,000 over 2,000 - a 12.4% increase (over 9 years).

Pulaski County - 388,487

A new record, and solid growth of 27,000 above the 2000 Census...very nice trend. Doubt this will break 400K before the census. For the record, this is a larger increase than Faulkner County...just to put this in perspective.

Little Rock - 193,482

This is a new record for Little Rock, and frankly, the growth bucks the trend of peer cities in our region...doubt we'll break 200K before the '10 Census, but who knows. It's a 10,000 increase since 2000.

North Little Rock - 61,788

I believe this is also a reversal in trends for NLR, no? I'm pretty sure that at some point in the last 5-6 years, it had dipped below 60K.

Conway - 58,927

Will most certainly break 60K by 2010, and may likely pass NLR officially for the first time.

***Note: both Saline and Faulkner counties will exceed 100,000

Cool info. I love looking at demographic trends.

The percentage change in the areas just outside of LR are huge (Bryant, Sherwood, and Maumelle). Here is the full report for those that are interested.

http://www.metroplan.org/files/53/2009DemR...be4e7d6df50a5f9

Architect, I assume you meant Faulkner instead of Lonoke County?

[Architect]

Architect, I assume you meant Faulkner instead of Lonoke County?

Oops! Sorry...corrected.

[Mith242]

Anyone have any predictions when Conway pass up North Little Rock in population?

[adman0468]

The Census has released their 2009 population estimates. It shows growth in most of the state with total population in Arkansas increasing from 2,673,400 in 2000 to 2,889,459 in 2009. Pulaski County went from 361,474 to 381,904. Ranking the largest cities looks like this:

2009

1. LR 191,930

2. FS 85,544

3. Fayetteville 77,142

4. Jonesboro 66,194

5. Springdale 62,610

6. NLR 60,139

7. Conway 59,511

8. Rogers 59,014

9. Pine Bluff 50,386

10. Hot Springs 39,673

It's interesting to compare it to the 10 largest in 2000. Same cities, just a different order. Looks like everyone's increased except PB and NLR.

2000

1. LR 183,133

2. FS 80,268

3. NLR 60,433

4. Fayetteville 58,047

5. Jonesboro 55,515

6. Pine Bluff 55,085

7. Springdale 43,787

8. Conway 43,107

9. Rogers 38,829

10. Hot Springs 35,750

You can peruse the numbers yourself here:

http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/SUB-EST2009-states.html

[Architect]

The Census has released their 2009 population estimates. It shows growth in most of the state with total population in Arkansas increasing from 2,673,400 in 2000 to 2,889,459 in 2009. Pulaski County went from 361,474 to 381,904. Ranking the largest cities looks like this:

2009

1. LR 191,930

2. FS 85,544

3. Fayetteville 77,142

4. Jonesboro 66,194

5. Springdale 62,610

6. NLR 60,139

7. Conway 59,511

8. Rogers 59,014

9. Pine Bluff 50,386

10. Hot Springs 39,673

It's interesting to compare it to the 10 largest in 2000. Same cities, just a different order. Looks like everyone's increased except PB and NLR.

2000

1. LR 183,133

2. FS 80,268

3. NLR 60,433

4. Fayetteville 58,047

5. Jonesboro 55,515

6. Pine Bluff 55,085

7. Springdale 43,787

8. Conway 43,107

9. Rogers 38,829

10. Hot Springs 35,750

You can peruse the numbers yourself here:

http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/SUB-EST2009-states.html

Interesting. There's also an updated report on metroplan.org's website about their estimated 2010 population estimates. Specifically, they note that their estimates are larger than the U.S. Census Bureau's projections for the 2010 census, and their data has historically been more accurate. Specifically, they are predicting the LR MSA to exceed 700,000 for 2010.

[skirby]

The Census has released their 2009 population estimates. It shows growth in most of the state with total population in Arkansas increasing from 2,673,400 in 2000 to 2,889,459 in 2009. Pulaski County went from 361,474 to 381,904. Ranking the largest cities looks like this:

2009

1. LR 191,930

2. FS 85,544

3. Fayetteville 77,142

4. Jonesboro 66,194

5. Springdale 62,610

6. NLR 60,139

7. Conway 59,511

8. Rogers 59,014

9. Pine Bluff 50,386

10. Hot Springs 39,673

It's interesting to compare it to the 10 largest in 2000. Same cities, just a different order. Looks like everyone's increased except PB and NLR.

2000

1. LR 183,133

2. FS 80,268

3. NLR 60,433

4. Fayetteville 58,047

5. Jonesboro 55,515

6. Pine Bluff 55,085

7. Springdale 43,787

8. Conway 43,107

9. Rogers 38,829

10. Hot Springs 35,750

You can peruse the numbers yourself here:

http://www.census.gov/popest/cities/SUB-EST2009-states.html

The interesting thing about NLR is that it lost population until 2006 and then has started to rebuild.

[Mith242]

There is about to be a change on the Top Ten list. I think soon Bentonville passes Hot Springs as Arkansas' tenth biggest city. Bentonville is listed at 36,855 on that link. As fast as they're growing and as slowly as Hot Springs is growing, it shouldn't take too long. Guess we'll have to wait a bit longer before another city passes up Pine Bluff. So it looks like despite all of it's problems, it's stay on the top ten will last a while longer.

[adman0468]

There is about to be a change on the Top Ten list. I think soon Bentonville passes Hot Springs as Arkansas' tenth biggest city. Bentonville is listed at 36,855 on that link. As fast as they're growing and as slowly as Hot Springs is growing, it shouldn't take too long. Guess we'll have to wait a bit longer before another city passes up Pine Bluff. So it looks like despite all of it's problems, it's stay on the top ten will last a while longer.

Benton and Sherwood are about to pass 30,000 as well, although I don't know how long it will take them to pass up Hot Springs.

[Architect]

There is about to be a change on the Top Ten list. I think soon Bentonville passes Hot Springs as Arkansas' tenth biggest city. Bentonville is listed at 36,855 on that link. As fast as they're growing and as slowly as Hot Springs is growing, it shouldn't take too long. Guess we'll have to wait a bit longer before another city passes up Pine Bluff. So it looks like despite all of it's problems, it's stay on the top ten will last a while longer.

Mith - no doubt the trend is and will continue for Bentonville to surpass Hot Springs, but in Hot Springs defense, their city boundaries are WOEFULLY disconnected to the actual growth. They've been trying to (appropriately) annex the growth for more than 15 years, and have run into too much resistance from voters. They way I understand it, the core urban area is closer to 50,000.

[Mith242]

Mith - no doubt the trend is and will continue for Bentonville to surpass Hot Springs, but in Hot Springs defense, their city boundaries are WOEFULLY disconnected to the actual growth. They've been trying to (appropriately) annex the growth for more than 15 years, and have run into too much resistance from voters. They way I understand it, the core urban area is closer to 50,000.

Oh yeah, I think we all know there's growth going on around the Hot Springs area. Just not inside the city limits. But unless things change Bentonville is going to pass them up rather quickly. I don't see Bentonville's growth slowing down too much. Yeah Walmart isn't bringing in as many vendors around their HQ anymore. But with Crystal Bridges and other things being built, I don't think population growth is going to slow down too much for Bentonville.

[Architect]

Oh yeah, I think we all know there's growth going on around the Hot Springs area. Just not inside the city limits. But unless things change Bentonville is going to pass them up rather quickly. I don't see Bentonville's growth slowing down too much. Yeah Walmart isn't bringing in as many vendors around their HQ anymore. But with Crystal Bridges and other things being built, I don't think population growth is going to slow down too much for Bentonville.

Exactly. I wasn't questioning Beontonville's phenomenal (and continuing growth), nor the fact that it will quickly pass Hot Springs. I was just pointing out that Hot Spring's ±35,000 population is misleading.

[theman]

An interesting article on the metros that will have a population of 1 million by 2050.  The Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro would hit a million in August 2037 and the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers would hit a million in January 2045.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/on-numbers/scott-thomas/2013/01/28-metros-have-a-shot-at-joining-the.html

[Architect]

An interesting article on the metros that will have a population of 1 million by 2050.  The Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro would hit a million in August 2037 and the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers would hit a million in January 2045.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/on-numbers/scott-thomas/2013/01/28-metros-have-a-shot-at-joining-the.html

 

Wow!  Nice find...very interesting.  It would be compelling if they listed the average annual growth rate per metro in that list since it's clear some are tracking faster than others (NWA for instance).  For instance, and this is completely anecdotal without the data, but LR is currently ranked 72 but if you assume the list will play out in order (which it won't, but it could go either way), LR would be the 70th metro to hit 1,000,000 in the U.S.  NWA would be the 75th 7 years later.

 

p.s.  I took the liberty of posting this in the NWA forum (crediting you with the find!)

[Mith242]

An interesting article on the metros that will have a population of 1 million by 2050.  The Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway metro would hit a million in August 2037 and the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers would hit a million in January 2045.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/on-numbers/scott-thomas/2013/01/28-metros-have-a-shot-at-joining-the.html

Nice find.  

[theman]

Wow!  Nice find...very interesting.  It would be compelling if they listed the average annual growth rate per metro in that list since it's clear some are tracking faster than others (NWA for instance).  For instance, and this is completely anecdotal without the data, but LR is currently ranked 72 but if you assume the list will play out in order (which it won't, but it could go either way), LR would be the 70th metro to hit 1,000,000 in the U.S.  NWA would be the 75th 7 years later.

 

p.s.  I took the liberty of posting this in the NWA forum (crediting you with the find!)

Boise, ID; Provo, UT and Charleston, SC are currently ranked behind Little Rock now but will hit one million before LR so their growth rate is definitely better.  Like you said it would be interesting to see what those rates are and what is driving them.  I know that Boise is attracting people from the tech arena.  It's good to be in a metro that is growing and who knows something may spur the rate to increase and LR gets to a million a little sooner.

[bchris02]

You really can't predict future population by looking at past growth trends. Circumstances change which can cause a metro area to either boom, stagnate, or even decline. I doubt anybody in the 1960s could have foreseen the collapse of Detroit. I doubt anybody in the 1980s could have foreseen Austin's transformation from sleepy college town to media and hipster darling. Nobody really knows what the future holds for any of America's major metro areas. That said, I think the future looks good for Central Arkansas. NW Arkansas is too reliant on Wal-Mart so its difficult to say. Wal-Mart isn't growing near as fast as it was ten years ago during the peak of NWA's boom, so I am a bit skeptical that they will reach 1 million without another major growth driver coming to the area.

[wmr]

I'm curious if there is anything out there demonstrating the population of the downtown core in Little Rock.  I feel like for a medium sized southern city, it has a high number of residents downtown, but I'm wondering if there is any data out there supporting this.

[Architect]

I'm curious if there is anything out there demonstrating the population of the downtown core in Little Rock.  I feel like for a medium sized southern city, it has a high number of residents downtown, but I'm wondering if there is any data out there supporting this.

 

I would peruse the Metroplan website…they certainly have that data, it would just be a matter of ferreting it out of a current or past publication/report, most all of which are published online.  Also, check out the Downtown Partnership website.

[wmr]

I would peruse the Metroplan website…they certainly have that data, it would just be a matter of ferreting it out of a current or past publication/report, most all of which are published online.  Also, check out the Downtown Partnership website.

 

Thanks.  Good answer.  Here's what I found:

 

http://www.metroplan.org/files/53//PulaskiTract2010.pdf

 

http://www.metroplan.org/files/53/PulaskiTracts2000-2010.pdf

 

It appears that the population of what we call "downtown Little Rock" was over 1,600 residents in 2010.  I used census tract 44 from the first link map, which includes everything north of I-630, west of I-30, east of the state capitol, and south of the river.

 

The growth was great percentage-wise last decade but rather modest numerically.  Still, Little Rock is leaps and bounds ahead of places like Jackson, MS in having life and activity downtown.

 

I didn't come here to make a comparison to anything upstate, but what struck me about this information initially was that it is a smaller residential population than most four-year public universities in this state.  And also that downtown Fayetteville (where I live) has approved over 1,000 new residential units which are either under construction, open, or about to begin construction, over the past two years.  I just thought of that as a means of calibrating what this influx of population will mean to my city, as Little Rock has done well in attracting residents to and improving its downtown.  I realize the population bases are different, and that Fayetteville's will be almost entirely college students, but they are still walkers, shoppers, drinkers and diners, with disposable income.  

[skirby]

Population estimate for Little Rock as of  July 2013 is 197,357.

[Architect]

Population estimate for Little Rock as of  July 2013 is 197,357.

 

What is the source?  I'm also interested in the MSA population update.

[skirby]

What is the source?  I'm also interested in the MSA population update.

The MSA population estimate for Little Rock as of July 1, 2013 is 724,385.

 

These are the latest Census estimates.

[burnz34]

Cool

[Architect]

The MSA population estimate for Little Rock as of July 1, 2013 is 724,385.

 

These are the latest Census estimates.

 

I think the big question is whether we'll hit 800,000 in the 2020 census...it will be very close.  Of course, one additional possibility is that another county could conceivably be added to the MSA (which is what happened after the 2000 census when demographic data showed that two additionally counties should be added, totaling six).

[skirby]

I think the big question is whether we'll hit 800,000 in the 2020 census...it will be very close.  Of course, one additional possibility is that another county could conceivably be added to the MSA (which is what happened after the 2000 census when demographic data showed that two additionally counties should be added, totaling six).

If growth continues LR should be over 200,000, NLR and Conway should both be over 70,000. 

NLR 2010: 62,304   2013: 66,025

Conway 2010: 58,906   2013: 63,816