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Richmond: Economy/Business/Real Estate


wrldcoupe4

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1 hour ago, asies said:

Pretty interesting data from Apartment List for the first quarter of 2022 showing migration trends.  Almost half of apartment searches (47 percent) came from outside the metro area. In comparison, 41 percent of searches in Charlotte were from outside the metro, Atlanta just 28.1 percent of searches were from outside its metro, Austin's outbound search rate was 45.4 percent, while Nashville's was 49. 3 percent.  Raleigh had a slighter higher ratio than Richmond with 52 percent of searches coming from outside its metro. RVA's profile is increasing,  and is attracting a higher rate of outside interest than  Charlotte, Atlanta, and Austin.  This study isn't perfect (it measures interest, not leases signed etc.) but it reflects RVA's rising profile, at least regionally. Apartment List Renter Migration Report: 2022 Q1

Good to hear this! And here's another "rule of thumb" - leases don't get signed without there first being interest in the area. If RVA is moving up the food chain in terms of interest - and it's landing squarely in the middle of peoples' radar screens as relocation possiblities, we're finally on the path. We have to ramp this up though - any and everything that the city's powers that be can do from the "boosterism" standpoint will go a long way to moving the needle forward on this.

49 minutes ago, Icetera said:

Totally anecdotal, but I met a guy from Austin a few weeks ago that was here visiting as an option to move as he was tired of Austin.  Richmond really made an impression on him as he explored many different areas and activities.  I think I made the sale but we will see.

EXCELLENT!! And this is exactly where we can be the grass-roots ambassadors for the city/metro at large. The more we can collectively push, the better.

Ice, a story like this is very heartening to me! :tw_thumbsup::tw_smile:

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2 hours ago, asies said:

Pretty interesting data from Apartment List for the first quarter of 2022 showing migration trends.  Almost half of apartment searches (47 percent) came from outside the metro area. In comparison, 41 percent of searches in Charlotte were from outside the metro, Atlanta just 28.1 percent of searches were from outside its metro, Austin's outbound search rate was 45.4 percent, while Nashville's was 49. 3 percent.  Raleigh had a slighter higher ratio than Richmond with 52 percent of searches coming from outside its metro. RVA's profile is increasing,  and is attracting a higher rate of outside interest than  Charlotte, Atlanta, and Austin.  This study isn't perfect (it measures interest, not leases signed etc.) but it reflects RVA's rising profile, at least regionally. Apartment List Renter Migration Report: 2022 Q1

I’ve seen and heard a bunch of similar data and anecdotes, feels like it is a trend building. 

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2 hours ago, Icetera said:

Totally anecdotal, but I met a guy from Austin a few weeks ago that was here visiting as an option to move as he was tired of Austin.  Richmond really made an impression on him as he explored many different areas and activities.  I think I made the sale but we will see.

I know of a handful of people who have already moved here from Austin, one down the street from me. They said Austin got too crowded and expensive, RVA reminds them of Austin 15-20 years ago.

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12 minutes ago, 123fakestreet said:

I know of a handful of people who have already moved here from Austin, one down the street from me. They said Austin got too crowded and expensive, RVA reminds them of Austin 15-20 years ago.

WOW! THAT to me is VERY encouraging!

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Ditto. I have several friends who've visited or moved from Austin and Portland and both said that RVA reminds them of both of those cities about 20 years ago. There's a real there there, and an urbanism that belies RVA's relatively smaller size. Several NYC friends see it as a mini-Brooklyn.

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39 minutes ago, flaneur said:

Ditto. I have several friends who've visited or moved from Austin and Portland and both said that RVA reminds them of both of those cities about 20 years ago.

There's a real there there, and an urbanism that belies RVA's relatively smaller size.

Several NYC friends see it as a mini-Brooklyn.

This is SO good to hear! A few specific thoughts:

1.) Portland/Austin 20 years ago: This is particularly encouraging. Mind you, it's up to US to light a fire under the tuchuses of those who can really push this city forward. Portland and, in particular, Austin really took off - Austin exploded - and they did it primarily through huge over-the-top boosterism (the likes of which we see only in places like Charlotte and maybe Raleigh nowadays - and 50-60 years ago in Atlanta) and through UBER-AGGRESSIVE business recruitment, which is something that RVA ABSOLUTELY MUST MUST MUST MUST emulate at all costs!!! NO amount of effort should be spared in this initiative - because the ROI for the time and money (depending on who is doing the recruiting) put into this has proven to be astronomical for the cities that have committed to this!! 

We ABSOLUTELY CANNOT under ANY circumstances fall into the VERY "Richmond" mode of sitting on our hands and doing nothing while we patiently wait for things to happen organically - because if we do that, nothing will happen. There could have VERY easily been a Style-Weekly-esqe bumper sticker about the city and her approach to growth, development and progress some 15-20-30 years ago -- "You're VERY Richmond if you're willing to sit and wait and do nothing while nothing happens."  And still another one - "You're also VERY Richmond if you're willing to CELEBRATE nothing happening -- even as you kvetch about it."

2.) Real "there" there - RVA urbanism: Fully agreed. We see this playing out in a lot of different ways - perhaps none better than by the kind of developments that have been happening in Scott's, Manchester and Rockett's. Add to that mix the awesome potential of both the Diamond District and City Center to be REAL - LEGITIMATE GAME-CHANGERS for RVA. Add to that CoStar doing what THEY have done over the past handful of years - first from (THANKFULLY) eschewing Charlotte and coming to Richmond and doing here what they clearly would have done there. CoStar (IMNSHO) is fast approaching VCU as one of RVA's businesses that deserves to be considered the MVP of the city from a progress, growth and development standpoint. They are doing for RVA what (pick a bank) did 30 years ago in Charlotte or 3M did decades ago in Minneapolis or (pick a company) did in Atlanta. That gorgeous tower that's slated to rise on the downtown riverfront - even if it IS a few floors shorter than it might have been absent Covid -- will be EPIC - and combined with the relatively new addition of the Dominion Tower actually WILL give RVA some recognizeable "signature" buildings to our skyline! Visually, those two towers will play off each other BEAUTIFULLY from all vantage points south of downtown. And from a people perspective, that's gonna be a LOT of workforce commuting to downtown just between those two buildings once CoStar's HQ opens.

We're also seeing it in the amazing, wonderfully changed mindset that the city has adopted - aggressively pushing for density - and now - FINALLY - going so far as to OPENLY remove height restrictions in the Diamond District and City Center, to actively encourage developers to build as tall as money will allow. Because of current economic realities and market size - height may still lag for a while - but at least the city planners have FINALLY gotten out in front of this now. These are BIG steps in the right direction -- perhaps far too long in coming - but at least they're part of the equation now, wereas before, they weren't.

3.) Mini-Brooklyn: VERY cool to hear that being said out loud. I keep pointing to this - but recall that it was just a couple of years ago that one of the RBS forums - the one on "The Future of Manchester" included several mentions by CRE industry professionals and leaders, and some developers who favorably compared Manchester to the NYC borough - referring to it at "Richmond's version of Brooklyn" - particularly with the kind of development that had been going on (and that continues), the emphasis on density, and the proxmity across the river to downtown. Nice comparisons to hear - and when it's from the mouths of out-of-towners, I put a lot more stock in it as something more reliable than merely the hopeful 'fancy' of some of us Richmonders (I'm talking to myself here!) who would liken ourselves to being part of a "big" city.

It really does feel like there's "a whole lot of shakin' goin' on" to coin a phrase when it comes to RVA moving the needle, growing bigger, progressing and developing. I can't wait to see what she does in the coming years.

 

Edited by I miss RVA
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I hope RVA does indeed grow and achieve her potential, but not unchecked or so explosively that she loses her soul. Change, churn, and dynamism are positive and inevitable in a healthy economy. But rapid growth comes with tradeoffs. The people describing RVA as a Portland or Austin from 20 years ago did so with a lament of what's been lost in those cities and how they'd like to leave them or are happy to have left. I doubt there's ever a perfect sweet spot balancing not losing the special sauce with growth, but I hope we hit it. 

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3 hours ago, flaneur said:

I hope RVA does indeed grow and achieve her potential, but not unchecked or so explosively that she loses her soul. Change, churn, and dynamism are positive and inevitable in a healthy economy. But rapid growth comes with tradeoffs. The people describing RVA as a Portland or Austin from 20 years ago did so with a lament of what's been lost in those cities and how they'd like to leave them or are happy to have left. I doubt there's ever a perfect sweet spot balancing not losing the special sauce with growth, but I hope we hit it. 

I hear you -- but my friend, we can't lock the city away under a glass dome and keep her "at this size" forever just because it may appear "nice"  to some. Don't get me wrong -  I get where these folks are coming from - but the natural progression for cities is to either grow (and hopefully do so dynamically) or to stagnate and die. The more dynamic the growth, the less likely the city will stagnate. Slow, steady, organic growth is nice in small towns - but RVA is well beyond that point. Even if she were to swallow a gallon or two of "Urban Miracle Grow" I don't foresee her EVER losing her soul. Places like Portland (to a lesser extent) and Austin (to a much greater extent) perhaps can lose what soul they may have at a given point in time because they might not have had their essenses established & entrenched for decades as have the older cities of the Eastern Seaboard or the upper Midwest. RVA is fortunate in that she is akin to her bigger sisters in the Northeast. Her soul is firmly entrenched - and, as I've said on here before, she could grow to be a city of 1 million and a metro of 6 million - and she will ALWAYS be RVA. That soul won't be diminished simply because she blew up and got super big.

Okay - perhaps I can (very grudgingly) concede perhaps RVA not going full-on super blow-torch and going from 230,000 to 900,000 in 20 years. But let's get to, say, at least 340,000 sooner rather than later - as the planners have projected could happen by the tricentennial. TBTH - I would love to see her above 400K by 2037 - but I realize that's bloody ambitious. Even if -- by Divine intervention -- she pulled that off, she would STILL be RVA -- even at 400,000 or 450,000  residents in the next 15-20 years - because NOTHING WILL EVER TAKE THAT SOUL AWAY FROM HER! IF ANYTHING - RVA's old soul will simply "filter" her larger size - and allow it to exist through very "Richmond" lenses - giving the bigger version of the city a sense of beauty that she has now - only there would be a lot more of it.

Can't say it enough - I don't see RVA being "changed" so deleteriously by rapid growth as many on here fear she will be. This is where the fact that RVA "isn't Charlotte" or "isn't Atlanta" or "isn't Austin" will shine through the most - because I think she has what it takes to handle explosive growth and existing as a much larger city FAR better than big cities that blew up overnight from nothing.

How I wish we had some kind of futuristic time capsule to scope it out - because I'll bet the house I'm right on this one:tw_thumbsup:

Edited by I miss RVA
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16 hours ago, flaneur said:

I hope RVA does indeed grow and achieve her potential, but not unchecked or so explosively that she loses her soul. Change, churn, and dynamism are positive and inevitable in a healthy economy. But rapid growth comes with tradeoffs. The people describing RVA as a Portland or Austin from 20 years ago did so with a lament of what's been lost in those cities and how they'd like to leave them or are happy to have left. I doubt there's ever a perfect sweet spot balancing not losing the special sauce with growth, but I hope we hit it. 

A lot of people feel this way, it's largely what drives all the NIMBYism here.  And I understand liking something the way it is and not wanting to get too crowded, too expensive.  Here the thing - the city used to be bigger than it is now.  Look around at all the empty lots and vacant buildings that we still have.  People really want a bunch of surface lots around town?  Are they a fan of the property crime they attract?  They liked it better when the houses in Church Hill were abandoned and falling apart over the fixed up ones there now with families living in them?

Fill in the empty city blocks and rotting vacant buildings, then I'll be willing to hear the arguments on containing growth.

Edited by 123fakestreet
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1 hour ago, 123fakestreet said:

1.) A lot of people feel this way, it's largely what drives all the NIMBYism here

2.) Here the thing - the city used to be bigger than it is now.  Look around at all the empty lots and vacant buildings that we still have.  People really want a bunch of surface lots around town? 
 

1.) NIMBYism - That makes sense.

2.) City was bigger/empty lots: EXACTLY!!! The city WAS bigger. And good point - are they (these NIMBYs) totally BLIND to the vacant surface lots and crumbling vacant buildings?

Well said, @123fakestreet:tw_thumbsup:

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1 hour ago, flaneur said:

1.) I think RVA frankly should already have an MSA population of 2-2.5 million had she not fumbled so many times.

2.) I'm just saying you can try to strike a sweet spot between strategic, inclusive growth vs. fervid, rampant growth for growth's sake. Be aggressive trying to grow while being intentional about how to accommodate the growth. Note I did not say contain.

3.) I hate that frame and I loathe NIMBYs  and BANANAs (build absolutely nothing near anybody).

4.) The Austin of the early 2000s was fun and still growing and robust economically, but I now hear that the Austin of today is leaving a lot of folks behind while attracting a lot of...forgive me for tacking to overly simplistic, negative/perhaps offensive language..."tech bro d-bags."

5.) Change is inevitable if indeed a city is dynamic, and that's much better than the alternative, stagnation or decline. I will choose the former any day over being stuck in a bypassed time capsule. But my main point here is it doesn't have to be an either or zero sum game when it comes to growth. 

Just a few thoughts:

1.) AMEN AMEN - and AYYY-FREAKIN-MEN!!! We have SO badly fumbled this one it's ridiculous. Ugh... 

2.) Sweet spot/aggressive growth/not contained: Agreed 100% on this. The biggest problem re: RVA is that the city spent TOO many decades NOT doing this, either by listening to the NIMBYs and BANANAs, re-fighting the Civil War/re-litigating annexation, corrupt politicians corrupting and bringing acrimony to the city government, and basically frittering away opportunity after opportunity to make positive changes that would FUEL growth. The good news, of course, is that the city FINALLY appears to have "seen the light" so to speak - and is actually now an active participant in pumping the gas pedal and steering the bus in the right direction.

3.) Hate the frame (contain growth) and loathe NIMBYs and BANANAs: you and me both, brother! :tw_thumbsup:

4.) Austin of the 2000s vs now: I'd like to get RVA to the place that Austin was 20 years ago. We have a long ways to go yet - but we're getting there. Some fun facts: In 2000 Austin had a city population of 656,000 - and she added another 140,000 people during the decade of the oughts.

5.) Change is inevitable: Yes it is. Just like Thanos. Cities don't "stand pat" as if they've been locked away under a geodesic crystal dome, the modern-day version akin to becoming fossilized in amber. Either cities grow or they decline. Either they are dynamic, or they are dying. That is a very simple rule of thumb (urban planning 101, folks). 

Regarding the bypassed time capsule: unfortunately, far too many denizens of our fair burg WANT RVA to be exactly that - a bypassed time capsule, whether a "replica" of how the city was in the 19th century - or how it is now. I agree with you - it needn't be a zero-sum game. Unfortunately, there are many who view it as such - and have done so for as long as I can remember. Even an economically robust, aggressively (but controlled/guided -- and NOT constrained/contained) growing city of Richmond is too much for them to bear. The only example needed is the north-side of Broad zoning fracas -- where they were "this is the hill I'm going to die on" opposed to B-4 zoning - but were "willing" to "accomodate" TOD-1 zoning so as not to come across as the total (pardon my Italian) d-bag a-h0les that they are. For them - zero IS the only number that matters. And for those of us who want even a "reasonable" rate of aggressive growth, they are who we are up against. The white-knuckling and pearl-clutching when it comes to opposition to any form of growth is disgusting. And as a result, I personally want the city to ramp down even HARDER on the growth gas pedal and light a blow-torch under our growth pods. I mean, 230K to 900K in 10 years? HELLLLL YEAH!!! Not even remotely realistic, I realize - but I think folks can understand why I am such a hard-liner to the point that when it comes to RVA's growth - "more more more" - is almost never enough. :tw_wink::tw_joy:

Anyway - you made excellent points, and I agree with you. .You hit 'em all out of the park, my friend.

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1 hour ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Re: #5

1.) Richmond is dynamic and far from dying.

2.) It just isn’t growing as quickly as some here would like.

3.) The question should be what do other cities with higher growth possess that Richmond lacks? And then, how can Richmond create an environment that fosters this growth in a way that doesn’t screw up our quality of life?
 

1.) Quite true - thank God! A huge turnaround from the '70s, '80s and '90s (and even the early 2000s).

2.) VERY true. For me, anyway, I think that's the biggest fly in the ointment - that RVA ISN'T growing as quickly as I want her to. I admit - SELFISHLY - that I probably wouldn't be so over the top about this were I maybe 25 years old with (supposedly) half a century or so ahead of me. But I'm turing 60 in a few months - which says to me, I'm on the clock, folks. I don't know how many years I have left - I pray 30-sh, so long as they're in good enough health and my mind and body are still reasonably functional. But how realistic is that, all things considered?  I'm not in perfect health. So a LOT of what RVA will do is gonna happen after I'm long gone and laying in the ground. And frankly, I kinda want to be around for the good stuff she's got in her future - and tbh I feel cheated that the city F'd around for SO many years - decades even - and only now is starting to do what I had hoped she would start doing in the late '70s. So there's urgency for me that I realize isn't realistic - (and I also realize it doesn't exist for most if not almost all of the folks on here) but it doesn't make that urgency abate any less for me. Understand where I'm coming from?

3.) So you have, in essense, asked THE questions that need to be asked. What are your thoughts as to answers to these questions? Because I agree - they ARE the two most pressing questions that need to be asked. What are your thoughts?

My only slight pushback is -- define "screw up our quality of life" - because growth is going to cause change. Things WON'T be the same. And that notion of not screwing up the quality of life very readily lends itself to a mindset of "we need to soft-pedal this growth thing so that things don't change TOO much or TOO fast. 

Dunno - maybe because I went from living in RVA to living for more than two decades in a city of 2.7 million and in a metro of just shy of 10 million -- and I've seen "both" sides. I know - personally - I could quite easily handle living in a significantly larger version of RVA were I to come home in my late-inning years. Of course, that's a bit unfair of me to say - and probably quite skewed because I've spent 21 years in a MUCH bigger city and tbh had no problems with it whatsoever. In a weird way, it really doesn't "feel" any different to me than RVA did - but that's just me. I was never overawed or overwhelmed by the size difference between RVA and Chicago. The only time I've ever felt any kind of "difference" is during times in my life when I've spent stretches in New York. And I loved it there, too. If it weren't so bloody expensive, I'd have been living in the Big Apple a LONG time ago. I just flat don't have the resources to pull it.

But whatever. It is what it is.

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14 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

1.) Quite true - thank God! A huge turnaround from the '70s, '80s and '90s (and even the early 2000s).

2.) VERY true. For me, anyway, I think that's the biggest fly in the ointment - that RVA ISN'T growing as quickly as I want her to. I admit - SELFISHLY - that I probably wouldn't be so over the top about this were I maybe 25 years old with (supposedly) half a century or so ahead of me. But I'm turing 60 in a few months - which says to me, I'm on the clock, folks. I don't know how many years I have left - I pray 30-sh, so long as they're in good enough health and my mind and body are still reasonably functional. But how realistic is that, all things considered?  I'm not in perfect health. So a LOT of what RVA will do is gonna happen after I'm long gone and laying in the ground. And frankly, I kinda want to be around for the good stuff she's got in her future - and tbh I feel cheated that the city F'd around for SO many years - decades even - and only now is starting to do what I had hoped she would start doing in the late '70s. So there's urgency for me that I realize isn't realistic - (and I also realize it doesn't exist for most if not almost all of the folks on here) but it doesn't make that urgency abate any less for me. Understand where I'm coming from?

3.) So you have, in essense, asked THE questions that need to be asked. What are your thoughts as to answers to these questions? Because I agree - they ARE the two most pressing questions that need to be asked. What are your thoughts?

My only slight pushback is -- define "screw up our quality of life" - because growth is going to cause change. Things WON'T be the same. And that notion of not screwing up the quality of life very readily lends itself to a mindset of "we need to soft-pedal this growth thing so that things don't change TOO much or TOO fast. 

Dunno - maybe because I went from living in RVA to living for more than two decades in a city of 2.7 million and in a metro of just shy of 10 million -- and I've seen "both" sides. I know - personally - I could quite easily handle living in a significantly larger version of RVA were I to come home in my late-inning years. Of course, that's a bit unfair of me to say - and probably quite skewed because I've spent 21 years in a MUCH bigger city and tbh had no problems with it whatsoever. In a weird way, it really doesn't "feel" any different to me than RVA did - but that's just me. I was never overawed or overwhelmed by the size difference between RVA and Chicago. The only time I've ever felt any kind of "difference" is during times in my life when I've spent stretches in New York. And I loved it there, too. If it weren't so bloody expensive, I'd have been living in the Big Apple a LONG time ago. I just flat don't have the resources to pull it.

But whatever. It is what it is.

I think you should personally come spend a couple of weeks in RVA exploring and catching up with the vibe here first hand.  I think it will alleviate a lot of your fears.  The NIMBY crowd, I agree, is given way too much credit.  There’s a great energy here now that feels exciting and like we’re on the cusp of really hitting a new stride.  I feel the sentiment is generally very optimistic and Excited about change.  The growth here feels healthy and sustainable, but certainly capable of hitting some new levels soon.  I’ve only lived here for 5-10 years, and it feels much different today than it did even 6-7 years ago, despite the pandemic 

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25 minutes ago, Virginian11 said:

I think you should personally come spend a couple of weeks in RVA exploring and catching up with the vibe here first hand.  I think it will alleviate a lot of your fears.  The NIMBY crowd, I agree, is given way too much credit.  There’s a great energy here now that feels exciting and like we’re on the cusp of really hitting a new stride.  I feel the sentiment is generally very optimistic and Excited about change.  The growth here feels healthy and sustainable, but certainly capable of hitting some new levels soon.  I’ve only lived here for 5-10 years, and it feels much different today than it did even 6-7 years ago, despite the pandemic 

I want very much to do that. Hang out for a couple of weeks and explore and see everything that's changed in the 21 years I've been away. My brother and SIL went back for a visit maybe five years ago - and my brother said things were SO different that it didn't 'feel' ANYTHING like the same RVA he left in 1999. (He moved up this way two years before I did.) So I can imagine that five years hense - with even MORE growth and even GREATER energy, things are different all the more today.

Okay - I'm going to start looking into how to make this happen. Maybe after the summer -- I'm so used to the weather up this way anymore that the classic Virginia heat and humidity of the summer and early fall will ruin any trip for me. Early winter would probably be the best time for me to travel.

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2 hours ago, I miss RVA said:

I want very much to do that. Hang out for a couple of weeks and explore and see everything that's changed in the 21 years I've been away. My brother and SIL went back for a visit maybe five years ago - and my brother said things were SO different that it didn't 'feel' ANYTHING like the same RVA he left in 1999. (He moved up this way two years before I did.) So I can imagine that five years hense - with even MORE growth and even GREATER energy, things are different all the more today.

Okay - I'm going to start looking into how to make this happen. Maybe after the summer -- I'm so used to the weather up this way anymore that the classic Virginia heat and humidity of the summer and early fall will ruin any trip for me. Early winter would probably be the best time for me to travel.

Absolutely - you would have a blast.  Wait until the Autumn.  Nothing like RVA when the leaves are changing and the air gets crisper.   Think of all the projects you can check in on by that point too!  Easy flight!

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2 hours ago, wrldcoupe4 said:

Folk festival weekend isn’t the worst although last few years it feels like it has taken over the state fair’s reputation for rain in the forecast. 

And I thought the State Fair had the monopoly on rain! :tw_joy:

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16 hours ago, Virginian11 said:

1.) Absolutely - you would have a blast.  Wait until the Autumn.

2.)  Nothing like RVA when the leaves are changing and the air gets crisper.

3.) Think of all the projects you can check in on by that point too!  Easy flight!

1.) Fully agreed. I'm getting excited just thinking about the prospects of coming home for a visit.

2.) AMEN TO THAT!!

3.) This is true! CoStar should be well underway by then. Pinecrest/Parc View will be rolling along - and hopefully more projects in the pipeline will have started, not to mention the progress on stuff in Manchester and Scott's. Wow...

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