The population boom in the Triangle

[DCMetroRaleigh]

You are right about Durham's undeserved reputation as being a factor in its slower growth. But I think Orange County is indeed anti-growth, although they usually couch it in terms of being anti-sprawl or in favor of smarth growth. At any rate, a lot of what is justified as smart growth, ends us driving people out of Orange County to areas that are more favorable to building more homes and businesses. The hoops that one has to go through to build something in Orange County means that it is just not affordable to live there for many, including many who work for UNC. The scarcity of large amounts of new housing only drives up home prices, ensuring that only the few can afford to own a home in Orange. A recent article in the News and Observer, chronicled how Orange County's anti-growth policies have driven residents and developers elsewhere:

"Roger Perry says the mere words "Chapel Hill" are enough to turn off most developers.

"You mention a piece of property here, and most people will just walk away," said Perry, a developer who nonetheless has made a good living atop Chapel Hill soil with such large projects as the Meadowmont community.

It's a common complaint among business people in Chapel Hill: The town's development-review process takes too long and costs too much.

Perry, whose Meadowmont mixed-use development off N.C. 54 will include about 1,000 housing units when finished in two years, might tweak Nelson's slogan to say: Chapel Hill: Where Masochism Makes Money.

"The process is laborious, and it's cumbersome, and it's difficult, and it's expensive," said Perry, who spent six years pushing Meadowmont through Town Hall.

"And I love it because most people won't fool with it," Perry said. "Therefore, once you get something approved, there's more demand [for your product] than there is supply. Most people aren't dumb enough to go through the process like I am."

Carter Meiselman might offer yet another slogan, one that would never make the brochures: Chapel Hill: Where Development Goes to Die.

Meiselman, the CEO of Eastern Federal Corp., a Charlotte-based real estate developer that until last fall owned and operated a chain of movie theaters, blames town officials for killing a theater project on Elliott Road.

"In its 70-year history, Eastern Federal Corporation developed movie theaters in dozens of municipalities in the Southeast, and Chapel Hill's development process is the longest, most cumbersome, most expensive and most subjective that I can recall," Meiselman wrote in an e-mail message."

http://www.newsobserver.com/161/story/413203.html

[JDC]

I think Johnston county is growing faster, (% wise), than Orange county and probably Durham county as well. It's just cheaper/more land out there than in the western Triangle and still has direct access to Raleigh. Or at least that is what my friends say who live in Johnston county.

I have trouble understanding the logic a lot of these people in Johnston County follow.

They move out there to Benson or Clayton buy a 5-bedroom house for $100k for what? To spend 2 - 3 hours each day commuting to and from Raleigh or RTP? Insane.

[JDC]

Well, to be fair, Orange County & Chapel Hill/Carrboro aren't "opposed to development"...but opposed to sprawl (which produces stuff like Cary)...and do encourage Smart Growth.

Durham too, but to a lesser degree---their slower growth is more due to having a bad reputation, to be honest. I've read on many online forums that give advice to people who are transplanting to NC from other states...every time someone asks about Durham, a ton of people rush in "You don't want to live there! It's horrible!!". It's usually from people who live in Cary or North Raleigh, no surprise.

My realtor told me the same thing. He said other realtors in the region expected he'd have a tough time making a living specializing in Durham properties.

Then again, there are twice as many people in Durham than there are in Cary. And twice as much character.

[dmccall]

Okay, then I take it back for Durham. Durham has still done a much better job of conserving the area around Falls lake, while in Raleigh, they build skyscrapers in the floodplain.

Plenty of Falls Lake lies in Wake County and I don't see a lot of waterside building there. Did you mean Durham County? Yeah, Durham's other option of strip shopping centers and culdesac neighborhoods around the new mall, which created the destruction of a perfectly good mall, should be lauded.

The Soleil Center and Falls Lake are two totally separate issues.

For those of you complaining about "sprawl", lets be specific and not confuse it with growth. The census said that approx 34,767 people moved to the Raleigh MSA in the last year. Keeping in mind that ITBers don't like teardowns and fight every single large density replacement project, where should those 34,767 people live? I'm not trying to be tricky, just want to have a discussion about how to manage where these people live so that it doesn't mess us up in 20-30 years. Keep in mind that nearly all of them moved here to not live in a high-rise condo.

[IBruton]

I have trouble understanding the logic a lot of these people in Johnston County follow.

They move out there to Benson or Clayton buy a 5-bedroom house for $100k for what? To spend 2 - 3 hours each day commuting to and from Raleigh or RTP? Insane.

Listen, there are lots of reasons why people choose to live in suburban, outlying counties.

The people in Johnston County are not insane (I live in Johnston County).

The land is cheaper, the taxes are lower, and the amenities are present.

It does not take 2-3 hours a day in commuting time. I live in Selma (26 miles from downtown) and can make it to downtown in 30 minutes (40 in rush hour).

Also, if you find a 5 bedroom house for $100K, please let me know as I am interested.

Homes in my neighborhood alone range from $125K to $400K. Besides these homes, there a numerous "starter homes" for new college graduates, newlyweds, and young families. Johnston County, despite its redneck mentality, is an OK place to live. It truly is suburban Raleigh, and people like it here. Perhaps you should try it.

[sax184]

Plenty of Falls Lake lies in Wake County and I don't see a lot of waterside building there. Did you mean Durham County? Yeah, Durham's other option of strip shopping centers and culdesac neighborhoods around the new mall, which created the destruction of a perfectly good mall, should be lauded.

The Soleil Center and Falls Lake are two totally separate issues.

For those of you complaining about "sprawl", lets be specific and not confuse it with growth. The census said that approx 34,767 people moved to the Raleigh MSA in the last year. Keeping in mind that ITBers don't like teardowns and fight every single large density replacement project, where should those 34,767 people live? I'm not trying to be tricky, just want to have a discussion about how to manage where these people live so that it doesn't mess us up in 20-30 years. Keep in mind that nearly all of them moved here to not live in a high-rise condo.

I understand your point about political pressure against infill from existing neighborhoods but watching Wake County and Raleigh govern is like a case study in problem avoidance. If 34,000 people keep moving to the Raleigh/Cary MSA each year, and the development pattern remains the same, traffic will be unbearable, flooding due to stormwater because of increasing impervious surfaces will be on the rise, and all those people trying to keep their suburban lawns green in the summer is going to continue to brush up against the logical limits of the water supply.

I think that Orange County could permit more housing construction, but Wake County is not the model to emulate.

[ChiefJoJo]

Plenty of Falls Lake lies in Wake County and I don't see a lot of waterside building there.

For those of you complaining about "sprawl", lets be specific and not confuse it with growth. The census said that approx 34,767 people moved to the Raleigh MSA in the last year. Keeping in mind that ITBers don't like teardowns and fight every single large density replacement project, where should those 34,767 people live? I'm not trying to be tricky, just want to have a discussion about how to manage where these people live so that it doesn't mess us up in 20-30 years. Keep in mind that nearly all of them moved here to not live in a high-rise condo.

Zoning in the Falls Lake floodplain is 1DU/acre, but it makes no specification to impervious surface limits. As a result, developers have built McMansions in the Falls Lake floodplain that often pave 1/2 of the total 1 acre allowed for a home. The land use policies in Wake Co are rediculous, whereas Orange the LU codes specifies only 1 DU/ 3 acres. It's much harder to develop in Orange. I don't think Chapel Hill's policies are the answer either, perhaps a balance between the extremes.

Of course sprawl does not equal growth, but let's not be foolish here. Wake County is growing almost exclusively due to sprawl. The homebuilders are raping this county left and right with no turning back. Again, see this link showing Raleigh's growth.

Where should 35k people live? If they want to live here in Wake Co, we have to make some tough choices about how we want to grow. I believe we should have more infill--NIMBYs be damned. They'll learn to live with it or move somewhere else. We need transit (hello TTA and CAT!) to focus growth. We need sound land use policies that focus growth and provide open space. We can leverage the popularity of this place by actually making demands on developers, so that growth is smart, controlled, and pays for itself (hello impact fees!).

[RaleighRob]

My realtor told me the same thing. He said other realtors in the region expected he'd have a tough time making a living specializing in Durham properties.

Then again, there are twice as many people in Durham than there are in Cary. And twice as much character.

Totally agreed. It'd probably help a good deal if more of those companies in RTP who get transplants in didn't always automatically refer their transplanting employees to Cary and North Raleigh-based realtors....and their anti-Durham bias.

Since 3/4ths of RTP is in Durham County, one would think it'd be in these companies' best interests to encourage more of the workers to live IN Durham, where they'll have like HALF of the commute time to work.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

34,000 last year? If roughly 150,000 people moved in 2000-2005, 34,000 would be a significant decline from the previous years.

[RaleighRob]

For those of you complaining about "sprawl", lets be specific and not confuse it with growth. The census said that approx 34,767 people moved to the Raleigh MSA in the last year. Keeping in mind that ITBers don't like teardowns and fight every single large density replacement project, where should those 34,767 people live?

Well, that is true to a point. But "ITBers" aren't against all teardowns and high density projects...look at Halifax Court and the new development that took its place...it's spectacular. Look at Gateway Park...a great addition.

In fact, there are other places that NEED a teardown and people are just waiting for it to happen...like that empty rotted old beige warehouse at the corner of Morgan and Hillsborough! If somebody knocked that down and put some decent townhomes there I'd be very interested for sure.

And yes, Coker Towers was "over the top" for most ITBers, but they compromised and are getting Oberlin Court and the new associated developments with that...and I'm sure it's gonna turn out swell. (Although they need an architect with a little more creativity, but that's another thread entirely.)

Honestly, if some developer came in today and said s/he was going to build a big high density, mixed use apartment tower (with units priced for the Middle class) right in the heart of downtown, we all know the majority of ITBers would jump for joy. It probably won't happen any time soon, but we would support it if it happened.

[Transplant]

Zoning in the Falls Lake floodplain is 1DU/acre, but it makes no specification to impervious surface limits. As a result, developers have built McMansions in the Falls Lake floodplain that often pave 1/2 of the total 1 acre allowed for a home. The land use policies in Wake Co are rediculous, whereas Orange the LU codes specifies only 1 DU/ 3 acres. It's much harder to develop in Orange. I don't think Chapel Hill's policies are the answer either, perhaps a balance between the extremes.

Of course sprawl does not equal growth, but let's not be foolish here. Wake County is growing almost exclusively due to sprawl. The homebuilders are raping this county left and right with no turning back. Again, see this link showing Raleigh's growth.

Where should 35k people live? If they want to live here in Wake Co, we have to make some tough choices about how we want to grow. I believe we should have more infill--NIMBYs be damned. They'll learn to live with it or move somewhere else. We need transit (hello TTA and CAT!) to focus growth. We need sound land use policies that focus growth and provide open space. We can leverage the popularity of this place by actually making demands on developers, so that growth is smart, controlled, and pays for itself (hello impact fees!).

Lets be careful. Developers will build what every they can to get the most money the fastest. If they can build sprawl, they will -- and have. I believe the blame has to be with the leaders that have created the current zoning rules that allow sprawl.

[Transplant]

Totally agreed. It'd probably help a good deal if more of those companies in RTP who get transplants in didn't always automatically refer their transplanting employees to Cary and North Raleigh-based realtors....and their anti-Durham bias.

Since 3/4ths of RTP is in Durham County, one would think it'd be in these companies' best interests to encourage more of the workers to live IN Durham, where they'll have like HALF of the commute time to work.

When i was looking for a house, I wanted one with good schools. Sorry Durham, your schools simply are not as good as those in other areas in the area. My wife student-taught in Durham while we were living in an apartment. Her experience in a high school there totally turned her off to teaching there. Kids were very disrepectful, parents were not helpful, and the regular teachers were punching their ticket (All of which can occur anywhere, but at this school to a much greater degree). So when I'm asked where someone should live, Durham is not recommeded. Now, I think young folks buying lofts/condos DT it is a great place, but not for families.

I also have a bias against Durham based on the frequency of issues such as bus shootings. Yes, this probably a localized area that doesn't represent the entire city, but the stain is there none the less.

Sorry.

[JDC]

Listen, there are lots of reasons why people choose to live in suburban, outlying counties.

The people in Johnston County are not insane (I live in Johnston County).

The land is cheaper, the taxes are lower, and the amenities are present.

It does not take 2-3 hours a day in commuting time. I live in Selma (26 miles from downtown) and can make it to downtown in 30 minutes (40 in rush hour).

Also, if you find a 5 bedroom house for $100K, please let me know as I am interested.

Homes in my neighborhood alone range from $125K to $400K. Besides these homes, there a numerous "starter homes" for new college graduates, newlyweds, and young families. Johnston County, despite its redneck mentality, is an OK place to live. It truly is suburban Raleigh, and people like it here. Perhaps you should try it.

Though I'm sure these outlying communities might work for you and your neighbors, I have trouble understanding why people are okay with living so far from wherever it is their jobs are, especially when you consider the price of gas, global warming, a dwindling, unrenewable energy supply, dependence on foreign oil, and so on. Is it only about cheaper land and lower taxes? Personally, I prefer not to live in the sticks, and not to rely on a car to get me to where I'm going. And I'd rather pay higher taxes for a better location than throw that money in oil companies coffers.

I guess that would make me the insane one.

[JDC]

When i was looking for a house, I wanted one with good schools. Sorry Durham, your schools simply are not as good as those in other areas in the area. My wife student-taught in Durham while we were living in an apartment. Her experience in a high school there totally turned her off to teaching there. Kids were very disrepectful, parents were not helpful, and the regular teachers were punching their ticket (All of which can occur anywhere, but at this school to a much greater degree). So when I'm asked where someone should live, Durham is not recommeded. Now, I think young folks buying lofts/condos DT it is a great place, but not for families.

I also have a bias against Durham based on the frequency of issues such as bus shootings. Yes, this probably a localized area that doesn't represent the entire city, but the stain is there none the less.

Sorry.

Though most everyone here knows I'm pretty slanted towards Durham, I wouldn't necessarily recommend it for families with children going to public schools either. On the other hand, for someone who believes a child's education doesn't solely take place in the classroom, I think Durham would be an excellent place to raise children - better than the subdivisions and stripmalls anyway.

[Cary NC]

I believe that the Triangle will reach 2 million+ before 2017/2018 based on the fact that the Census re-examines each MSA/CSA every 10 years. And as in past Census they are adding/subtracting counties. And I think in the 2010 Census we will be adding at least several more counties to the Triangle CSA.

Certianly agree on that judgement. I imagine that Durham MSA and Raleigh MSA might be combined. at some point. I think in 10 years 2M is definitely a possibilty.

[DanRNC]

To go back to the approval process in Chapel Hill, yes it may be tedious and expensive but at least you don't end up with the schlock you see all over Raleigh, Cary, Clayton, Wake Forest, etc. North Raleigh is one of the biggest disgraces I have ever seen.

[RaleighRob]

Though most everyone here knows I'm pretty slanted towards Durham, I wouldn't necessarily recommend it for families with children going to public schools either. On the other hand, for someone who believes a child's education doesn't solely take place in the classroom, I think Durham would be an excellent place to raise children - better than the subdivisions and stripmalls anyway.

Very good point. I can still remember my youth quite vividly--being raised in a suburban area on the northwest side of Winston-Salem, that for locals here, is very much similar to Garner or Clayton, if you know what I mean.

I was so bored out of my freaking mind there!!!

What I wouldn't have given for my parents to have raised me someplace more interesting, like ITB Raleigh, west Durham, or ChapelHill/Carrboro. Sigh.

[DwnTwnRaleighGuy]

Certianly agree on that judgement. I imagine that Durham MSA and Raleigh MSA might be combined. at some point. I think in 10 years 2M is definitely a possibilty.

Durham and Raleigh each have, and should always have there own MSA's which is the new standard in 2000. Now what you might be thinking of is CMA's? Consolidated Metro- Areas. CMA's are few and far between. But it helps explain the new suburban/urban areas of this country better than just the same old MSA's.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Aren't MSAs solely based on commuting patterns? If so, why shouldn't Raleigh-Durham be in the same MSA if one day there is sufficient cross-commuting? Minneapolis-St Paul are in the same MSA.

[DwnTwnRaleighGuy]

Aren't MSAs solely based on commuting patterns? If so, why shouldn't Raleigh-Durham be in the same MSA if one day there is sufficient cross-commuting? Minneapolis-St Paul are in the same MSA.

Check this out:

http://www.census.gov/popest/metro.html

You can view the current metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area definitions. As well as the Combined Metropoloitan Statistical areas. Hopefully this will help!

[Tayfromcarolina]

I suspect they will merge Raleigh and Durham once again into the same areas in the not so distant future.

[Transplant]

I suspect they will merge Raleigh and Durham once again into the same areas in the not so distant future.

Does this really matter? The population is growing in Raleigh and Durham (and beyond)...GREAT!

[kayman]

Though I'm sure these outlying communities might work for you and your neighbors, I have trouble understanding why people are okay with living so far from wherever it is their jobs are, especially when you consider the price of gas, global warming, a dwindling, unrenewable energy supply, dependence on foreign oil, and so on. Is it only about cheaper land and lower taxes? Personally, I prefer not to live in the sticks, and not to rely on a car to get me to where I'm going. And I'd rather pay higher taxes for a better location than throw that money in oil companies coffers.

I guess that would make me the insane one.

I must agree. When I was at Duke for their secondary student scholars program back in '99, I saw that Durham had a lot more character than Raleigh (or Sprawleigh as I call it). I love Durham because it is more dense, urbanized/city-like, and its atmosphere. I'm sorry Raleigh people but your city is a basically a giant suburb growing out of control (outside of the Beltline) like Virginia Beach, VA. That within itself is dangerous b/c that leads to people not wanting to more to The Triangle in general. Raleigh is usually the first thing what most of us outsiders think of The Triangle, and if that is what represents the city then count me out. You guys don't want to fall in the category of Atlanta and Charlotte.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Raleigh needs to develop a culture. Durham and Chapel Hill have character, culture, a progressive vibe that permeates everything. Raleigh feels sterile, whitebread to outsiders. When I lived there, I would go to Chapel Hill and Durham just to feel some urban vibe, some hipness. Hopefully that is changing now, but the city needs to stoke up some hip urbanity.

[Justin6882]

Am I the only one that doesn't feel this great "vibe" in durham?? It has the same sprawl Raleigh has, but its just smaller. I mean, it has its nice points, I guess...maybe I need to go over there more or something.