Ernesto

[TSmith]

Just keep an eye on it. Right now, we're in the bullseye. But the trend is to the east, so I expect this to change. Models have a hard time with developing systems. Here's the official NHC track...

[NCB]

This is not what I wanted to wake up and see earlier this morning. But you're right, Travis, the track has been shifting east, so hopefully it will continue to do so. We're still a few days out from serious precautions as it is still way down there and there are many too many variables to have a confident set track right now. But we should certainly keep a very close eye on Ernesto right now.

I'm hoping SlidellWX will be able to drop in soon and give us an update from his point of view, as well. Though I know he's probably very busy right now.

[TBurban]

Im afraid I bear the same bad news.

Courtesy of Wikipedia. The storm is predicted to maintain its WNW course. If this is accurate and the shift of winds stop going east, New Orleans could see another major hurricane impact.

As of 2 p.m. AST (1800 UTC) August 26, Tropical Storm Ernesto is located near 15.5

[NCB]

Well, the new advisory is out, and it brings us some better news:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...html?5day?large

I know it's still WAY to early to be sure, but at least the easterly trend seems to be continuing.

[nola17]

If this makes landfall in New Orleans it is not going to be good for struggling businesses and homeowners or even those still debating if they want to come back. Hopefully this gets sheard apart.

[TSmith]

Looks like N.O. will be ok at this point. I really hope these models are right. If so, looks like another FL 'cane.

[NCB]

The models have shifted even further east, and at this point we're completely out of the cone of uncertaincy. Right now the NHC seems to be thinking that Ernesto will make landfall somewhere around Tampa as a Cat. 2 hurricane. We still need to be watching this, but it seems like we'll be ok at this point.

[SlidellWX]

No worries...the ridge is breaking down and the storm will definitely be an East Coast event.

[TSmith]

I've never seen a more humbling storm. The NHC was off by some 700 miles on this one. Ernesto will go down in history as perhaps the most difficult storm to forecast in NHC history. Looks like they may have a good handle on it now, however.

[UptownNewOrleans]

My folk in South Florida better get out of there.

[NCB]

Hey Tommy, it looks like Ernesto will be affecting you more than it did us down here. It's forecast to head over the Richmond area as a tropical depression friday night. And to think that last friday it was forecast to head south of Houston.

[TBurban]

Hey Tommy, it looks like Ernesto will be affecting you more than it did us down here. It's forecast to head over the Richmond area as a tropical depression friday night. And to think that last friday it was forecast to head south of Houston.

Haha, I was just looking at that. 8"+ across Central Virginia. 10-12" locally. We do need the rain, but ever since Wednesday, its been raining nonstop. If we get that much just on Saturday, plus what we get and have gotten so far, we could be dealing with some major flooding. The extended forecast calls for heavy rain, wind, and severe thunderstorms through Saturday. Then scattered for the remaining week.