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Snowguy716

Is there a democratic wave coming this fall?

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I can't help but notice that things are just getting brighter and brighter for democrats, even as Bush exploits terrorism and fear to pull people back to his side.

His approval rating has been in the 30s for quite some time now, and a clear majority of surveyed voters have indicated leaning democrat this fall for the elections.

While Republicans have painted this as an "anti-incumbment" and not "anti-Republican" election, I think people are associating "incumbent" with "Republican" pretty regularly.

In my state, it's looking like this:

District 1: Leans Republican to Toss-up

Gil Gutknecht against Tim Walz (DFL)

While Walz was the clear underdog, things are getting ever more clousterphobic for Gutknecht as he has completely changed his stance toward Iraq and is bungled with broken promises (like serving only 6 terms, a promise that got him in back in 1994).

District 2: Leans Republican

John Kline against Coleen Rowley (DFL)

John Kline is your typical Bush republican, supporting him unwaveringly in the past 5 years. His challenger is whistleblower Coleen Rowley who is mainly running her campaign by riding her bike around with her name taped on her back and knocking on doors. Considering the poor campaign so far (which will get better after the primary), she is inching up on John Kline. John Kline has resorted to publishing articles that blast her campaign workers for their policy views, and not Rowley.

District 3: Solid Republican

Jim Ramstad will easily get re-elected as being the only moderate Republican from Minnesota.

Disctrict 4: Solid Democrat

Betty McCollum (DFL) will easily get reelected in this liberal district (St. Paul/northern Suburbs).

District 5: Solid democrat

The jury is still out on who will get the nomination. Keith Ellison looks like the favorite, as he is the DFL endorsed candidate in this very liberal district.

District 6: Toss-up

Patty Wetterling(DFL) is enjoying majority support thanks to name recognition. She has been integral on fighting for childrens' rights after her son was kidnapped 15 years ago. Her opponent, Michele Bachmann is running on a campaign on cultural issues and has had the president, Karl Rove, and Dick Cheney all to the state for fundraisers.

District 7: Solid Democrat

Collin Peterson (DFL) will probably get re-elected with 70% of the vote. His opponent is running a campaign on cultural issues, because, let's face it: Peterson is a very conservative democrat.

District 8: Solid Democrat

The day a Republican gets elected to congress in district 8 will be a woeful day for the country. James Oberstar will easily get in for another term despite the strongest opposition in some time from former senator Rod Grahms. I predict Oberstar will get at least 65% of the vote.

U.S Senate seat: Leans Democratic

Mark Kennedy hasn't come closer than within 7% of Amy Klobuchar. While she will not have a 7 point lead over Kennedy come election time, her victory is almost guaranteed, barring anything major happening.

How are thigns looking in other states? I know many election prediction sites are giving the dems a 15-20 seat pickup in the house, which would give them a majority.

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A Dem majority in the House or Senate would be almost too good to be true. Imagine having a liberal San Francisco Dem as Speaker of the House---and a woman too! YAY!

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Frankly I am surprised that the margin isn't more. Just right now Alberto Gonzales is trying to explain why the United States is so much safer under Bush yet at the same time explain the "grave nightmare" of the threat that terrorists post to the USA. It's pandering at its worst. There either isn't a threat from terrorists, or they have to explain why, after 5 years they haven't made the USA safer.

Where are the sensible American's that see through this BS?

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I think Americans are seeing through the BS... but many Americans are thinking "Well, I want the dems to have control, but I like my Republican lawmaker"

That's the problem.

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If that is the case it's gonna take a few more years until the pain gets so great for the average american, it will force them to change. That, or their grandchildren are going to find it necessary to learn Chinese or Spanish to get by in this country.

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It would be a miracle if Virginia voted for Webb and he won. Virginians love Allen and their macacas.

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Sad to say, but despite all the media coverage, I think a lot of Virginians would have said the same thing and other probably still think that was that guy's name. There are a lot of people in this state that blindly follow Republicans just because they're Republican. if they make a mistake, it's quickly forgiven and/or overlooked and excused.

There's an ad from George Allen running now about protecting the children... well if I had kids, I'd vote to protect my children from George Allen.

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I'm not sure how things are going this year. This feels just like 2004, when the winds were supposed to have changed and then......I can't talk about it. :( But there have been some signs of optimism. Ralph Reed was voted down by Georgia Republicans in the primaries in favor of a more moderate candidate from metro Atlanta. Reed, if you remember was/is the darling of the Christian right (his interests in casino gambling notwithstanding). Plus, it appeared that more people voted in the Democratic primary than in the Republican primary here in Georgia---which is odd given that most people thought that a lot of Democrats crossed over to keep Reed from winning (Georgia is a closed ballot state---you either pick one or other at the primary).

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In Washington State, Senator Maria Cantwell (D) has a comfortable lead in the polls over her Rep opposition. Six years ago she won by a hair.

Sen. Rick Santorium (Pa.), one of the most odeous of recent Reps, is behind in the polls.

Wasn't it fun seeing Ralph Reed get his silly little butt kicked by Georgia Republican voters?

Without a doubt this is going to be one hell of an interesting midterm election!

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Primary day for us is September 12th, but no big surprises are expected (except the close race in district 5).

2004 was a democratic revolution of sorts on a local level. Republicans went from a 26 seat lead in the state house to a 1 seat lead while the democrats increased their margin in the senate by 5.

An example of a state house race in my state (my district):

Republican says:

Pro-life

Pro-gun

Pro-marriage

Pro-family

= A+

Then he has several letters to the editor blasting him for his stance on abortion and gay marriage from local citizens and he claims "My message is getting out there." The man is scary.

The incumbent DFLer not only touts a record of a big increase in funding for schools, road funding, and property tax relief for small business owners, but proposes:

Reducing property taxes even further while making up for it by closing business tax loopholes (means all businesses based in Minnesota that put their HQ in other countries to avoid tax to pay tax anyway). Increasing school funding to reduce class sizes and provide relief for rising energy/gas prices.

Proposes to restore funding on state healthcare programs to extend covereage to all working poor who don't have the possibility of private insurance through their workplace. Also proposes to increase local government aid so that cities can reduce their property taxes.

He is also "pro-gun".. he is an avid sportsman. He supports funding dedication to the DNR for better natural resource management. He also supports keeping our forests free of Bush's "thinning" friends. Hell.. we don't even allow lumber companies to clear cut much anymore... let alone Bush trying to come in and tell us how to "protect" our forests, waters, and air. If there's anything Minnesotans are better at than most of this country, it's knowing that the environment doesn't benefit from the axe, the pick, the skidder, or the chemical plant.

Frank Moe talks to anyone and everyone when he's around. (My grandparents got to meet him while they were out for 7am coffee in town. They're supporting him this fall, despite strong Republican roots)...

A Republican's worst nightmare: A pro-life, pro-gun democrat that also cares about the poor!

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Sure, the mainstream media is conveying an upswing for democrats, but I don't believe the election results will show it because voting systems are largely controlled by republican interests.

Call it conspiracy theory if you want. Our democracy has been hijacked. Unfortunately the Bush White House was able to distract us with a war making us all forget how he got to office in the first place (and how he did it again four years later).

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^I agree, JDC. In 2004, the powers that be didn't even make much effort to conceal their manipulation of the results. They counted on the fact that too few people would bother looking to be a threat, and to this day there has been no investigation of the numerous " voting errors" and "software glitches" in Ohio and elsewhere, virtually all of which benefited the Republicans.

You can bet that the fix is in for the '06 elections as well. My hope is that the Democratic upswing will be so strong by election day that any attempts to rig the results will be insufficient. Otherwise, if they do succeed, the results will be so out of sync with public opinion that there will be no way to avoid a real, independent investigation.

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... or revolution... what am i talking about? We're too lazy and indifferent to pull something off these days... the old American spirit is DOA.

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It has become increasingly obvious that Republicans are being abandoned except by the far right. For example, on issues like Iraq, Independents are almost in sync with Democrats on the issue while Republicans fill a completely different zone.

58% of Republicans in a recent Zogby poll said that the deaths in Iraq of American Soldiers has been worth it for the cause compared to 20% of democrats and 28% of independents. Republicans paint a rosy picture for Bush on pretty much every issue while indepedents and democrats are the opposite.

If there aren't major victories for democrats this fall, it will be a sad day for our democracy.. not just because of our corrupt government, but because of its apathetic voters. This is not a vote to slap republicans.. it's a vote for a real, tangible change in the path of our country.. one that respects religious beliefs but does not force them upon others, one that cherishes environmental stewardship, fair trade, a fair tax system..

In my mind, after 1996, it was clear the Republicans weren't about change and making Washington a positive role model.. they have disgraced our government.. and if you aren't angry about it.. you should be.

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... or revolution... what am i talking about? We're too lazy and indifferent to pull something off these days... the old American spirit is DOA.

It's a Brave New World.....

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I haven't read that book yet. I've heard great things.. but I'm paranoid enough already :)

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^I agree, JDC. In 2004, the powers that be didn't even make much effort to conceal their manipulation of the results. They counted on the fact that too few people would bother looking to be a threat, and to this day there has been no investigation of the numerous " voting errors" and "software glitches" in Ohio and elsewhere, virtually all of which benefited the Republicans.

You can bet that the fix is in for the '06 elections as well. My hope is that the Democratic upswing will be so strong by election day that any attempts to rig the results will be insufficient. Otherwise, if they do succeed, the results will be so out of sync with public opinion that there will be no way to avoid a real, independent investigation.

Glad I ain't alone :thumbsup: .

I think with enough change in the senate and house, we could be looking at some good momentum into 2008. In an ideal world, we'll also be looking at an impeachment in 2007.

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I think Americans are seeing through the BS... but many Americans are thinking "Well, I want the dems to have control, but I like my Republican lawmaker"

That's the problem.

i want the sensible ones to have control... and that includes my republican senator, lincoln chafee. but yes... most republicans need to go. however, i disagree with the either or mentality...

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The only chance the Republicans have is to take an exceptionally strong position against illegal immigration. Republican incumbents that have done so are sitting well in the initial estimates.

Otherwise, they're cooked.

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The only chance the Republicans have is to take an exceptionally strong position against illegal immigration. Republican incumbents that have done so are sitting well in the initial estimates.

Otherwise, they're cooked.

A lot of people are pissed off about this and the illegal's didn't do themselves any favors by holding marches in major cities waving the Mexican flag. It's amazing how much this had come off the radar in the last few weeks as the media, I think, is part of the problem. In any case I don't think the Republican leadership has the balls to take a definate stand on this issue because they have all sold out to big business which are happy to exploit cheap illegal labor to fatten the bottom line.

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Republicans are running from their records like crazy. Mark Kennedy's ads right now are all about depicting him as some warm and fuzzy rural Minnesota farmboy that wears plaid shirts and likes to hunt.. who worked at a gas station out of high school...

But there's a lot of anger behind this man. It's not the explosive I'm gonna say something stupid.. no.. it's a seething, cold anger. Just look him in the eyes sometime. He's nasty. He put ads out blasting his most recent opponent, a childrens' advocate after her son was abducted and never found, and a school teacher, as a person who supports Osama bin Laden and Al Queda...

He has come out with a list of like 50 things he will propose to change Washington that will cost $1.8 TRILLION... and he hasn't offered ONE way to pay for them. He repeatedly offers support to make Bush's tax cuts permanent...

He also accused his opponent in a debate of criticizing oil companies while having Exxon-Mobile as the single largest part of her mutual fund. She responded by saying, for one, she didn't know it was in her mutual fund because they change all the time.. and that recent ads put out by Kennedy were a bit hypocritical because he called for repealing tax breaks to the oil companies that he helped give... while accepting campaign contributions from oil PACs... she ended it with "Congressman Kennedy, the oil companies are paying for the ads that are saying you will take their tax breaks away. This isn't the question you should have asked of me."

I'm sorry.. I hope he falls on his face and never steps foot in Washington, DC again.

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A lot of people are pissed off about this and the illegal's didn't do themselves any favors by holding marches in major cities waving the Mexican flag. It's amazing how much this had come off the radar in the last few weeks as the media, I think, is part of the problem. In any case I don't think the Republican leadership has the balls to take a definate stand on this issue because they have all sold out to big business which are happy to exploit cheap illegal labor to fatten the bottom line.

The funny thing is that more poor immigrants would mean the death of the republican party - a party that makes its living from middle-upper class whites. By allowing more to come in, they are effectivily limiting their base's power.

A strange strategy.

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