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smeagolsfree

DT population may hit 10,000 by 2010

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An article from the Tennessean today saying the DT population could be at 10,000 by the end of the decade. I wouldn't be surprised if it surpassed that by then with all of the proposed projects and others that have not been announced yet get going. Either way great news for DT and Nashville. I also have to wonder what this will do to the Nashville population estimates for 2010.

Here's the article.

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ar...0/1197/COUNTY01

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I'm convinced that this will have no effect whatsoever on the estimates merely b/c the source of this info to the USCB are lax as hell. It's impossible to believe that the population of Nashville has declined/stayed the same for five years. This forum has taken those figures to task now for a long time. One only need to look at the building permits from 2000-2005 to see that (even a conservative estimate) an estimated 35K increase occurred over that time frame. Furthermore, in the latest 2.5 years (est. for 2006) there have been apx. 7000 additional residents of Davidson County (of course which is mostly Metro Nashville). This also stands up to analysis of the previous four decades when the total number (not percent) actually increased over each previous decade. There is too much evidence to suggest that this will continue.

I'll follow several experts' estimates that say Davidson will gain 65K-70K in the 2000-2010 period. That would result in a population of 640K. And still (IMO) that's conservative.

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Does anyone think that the city of Nashville will one day become the largest in TN?

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Does anyone think that the city of Nashville will one day become the largest in TN?

Nope. Given Memphis' substantial, current lead over Nashville, and their ability to annex suburban neighborhoods, it'll be a while - a long while - before Nashville overttakes Memphis. Conservative estimates place Memphis' downtown with 13-14k residents, and that number too is rapidly growing.

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Just remember...the Nashville Metro area is still alot larger than Memphis, whether the actual city is or not. That trend will continue, along with Nashville hopefully growing as well.

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Nope. Given Memphis' substantial, current lead over Nashville, and their ability to annex suburban neighborhoods, it'll be a while - a long while - before Nashville overttakes Memphis. Conservative estimates place Memphis' downtown with 13-14k residents, and that number too is rapidly growing.

I agree. Memphis will continue to annex and will probably end up annexing all of Shelby County less incorporated cities such as Germantown or Collierville. The city could easily grow to a million population one day. Still, Nashville is growing faster, and I see it slowly closing that gap.

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Just remember...the Nashville Metro area is still alot larger than Memphis, whether the actual city is or not. That trend will continue, along with Nashville hopefully growing as well.

I don't know if i'd say it is alot larger. Take out Rutherford County and they'd be about the same.

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I don't know if i'd say it is alot larger. Take out Rutherford County and they'd be about the same.

I think it's possible, the Nashville metro is a lot larger and will only continue to grow. Unless Memphis annexes like crazy or goes metro, the gap will continue to close in.

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I think it's slightly possible because Nashville/Nashville Metro is growing far faster than Memphis city and Memphis Metro currently. If the rate continues there is a slight possibility that it will happen. But really, does it mean anything to be the "biggest" anyways?? Not really. Most corporations look at Metro numbers before individual cities numbers. Had they not, Memphis would have the upper hand over Nashville which truthfully, isn't the case anymore.

And Rardy..... LOL!! Memphis hasn't got a "substantial" lead over Nashville my friend. Especially given current growth rates for both the city, metro, and the downtown of Nashville. A "substantial" lead would be well over what the current gap is.

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I agree. Memphis will continue to annex and will probably end up annexing all of Shelby County less incorporated cities such as Germantown or Collierville. The city could easily grow to a million population one day. Still, Nashville is growing faster, and I see it slowly closing that gap.

Memphis population is 641,000 while Shelby Co is 923,000 and the Memphis MSA is about 1.2 mil.

Nashville population is 545,000 while Davidson Co is 575,000 and the Nashville MSA is 1.45 mil.

Shelby County is the state's largest county in land mass with 784 square miles. Davidson has only 526 square miles.

If Davidson were 50% larger in land mass we'd be about equal to Shelby Co. If you add 50% more to the population, Davidson would be at about 860,000, but I'm sure Nashville's population would be at least 700k to nearly 800k, larger than Memphis proper. This is oranges to oranges.

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I don't know if i'd say it is alot larger. Take out Rutherford County and they'd be about the same.

Take out Davidson and it would be a lot smaller. :lol:

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I agree. Memphis will continue to annex and will probably end up annexing all of Shelby County less incorporated cities such as Germantown or Collierville. The city could easily grow to a million population one day. Still, Nashville is growing faster, and I see it slowly closing that gap.

Memphis cant annext Germantown, Collierville, Lakeland, millington, or bartlett because they are incorperated cities with their own mayors

places like Cordova are not incorpated... hence the ability of memphis to annex them.

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Memphis population is 641,000 while Shelby Co is 923,000 and the Memphis MSA is about 1.2 mil.

Nashville population is 545,000 while Davidson Co is 575,000 and the Nashville MSA is 1.45 mil.

Shelby County is the state's largest county in land mass with 784 square miles. Davidson has only 526 square miles.

Nashville's metro is around 1.5 million while Memphis' metro is closing in on 1.3 million, not a huge difference. And where did you get 641,000? The latest estimates place Memphis around 672,000 in an area of approx. 300 sq miles.

But despite that, Memphis continues to lose population when recent annexations aren't taken into account. Meanwhile, Nashville has a steady, moderate growth rate. That's why it's not out of the question for Nashville to eventually become the largest city in Tennessee. It will just take awhile, maybe 20 or 30 years. Then again, that's alot of time for growth patterns in Memphis to come around, too.

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Nashville's metro is around 1.5 million while Memphis' metro is closing in on 1.3 million, not a huge difference. And where did you get 641,000? The latest estimates place Memphis around 672,000 in an area of approx. 300 sq miles.

But despite that, Memphis continues to lose population when recent annexations aren't taken into account. Meanwhile, Nashville has a steady, moderate growth rate. That's why it's not out of the question for Nashville to eventually become the largest city in Tennessee. It will just take awhile, maybe 20 or 30 years. Then again, that's alot of time for growth patterns in Memphis to come around, too.

There's tons of websites that give numbers. The numbers I provided were from 2005 and were the numbers that appeared most often on those sites.

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I think it's slightly possible because Nashville/Nashville Metro is growing far faster than Memphis city and Memphis Metro currently. If the rate continues there is a slight possibility that it will happen. But really, does it mean anything to be the "biggest" anyways?? Not really. Most corporations look at Metro numbers before individual cities numbers. Had they not, Memphis would have the upper hand over Nashville which truthfully, isn't the case anymore.

And Rardy..... LOL!! Memphis hasn't got a "substantial" lead over Nashville my friend. Especially given current growth rates for both the city, metro, and the downtown of Nashville. A "substantial" lead would be well over what the current gap is.

Sorry if I offended you Lexy, but the numbers for the 2000-2005 numerical change for the cities of Memphis and Nashville are kinda black and white:

Memphis

2000: 650,100

2005: 672,277

Nashville:

2000: 545,524

2005: 549,110

The city of Memphis does have a substantial lead over the city Nashville, a margin of 123,167 people, or 22.4% of Nashville's population. Granted, there are extenuating factors, like metropolitan growth and annexation, but as far as actual city population is concerned, Memphis' numbers are far larger and are increasing at a faster rate.

Also, Nashville only gained 3,500 people in the five year period. If you factor out the rate births exceed deaths, the city of Nashville saw a substantial decrease in population (as did Memphis if you factor out their ability to annex).

Regardless, at this rate, the city of Nashville will never overttake the city of Memphis in population.

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^Having seen the enormous goof the Census Bureau made with its pre-2000 estimates for Nashville's population (underestimating by 40k or so), the similar estimates that we've only grown by less than 3,600 people since 2000 simply doesn't pass the smell test. I wouldn't make an audacious claim that Nashville proper is overtaking the city of Memphis, but we're not nearly as far behind as these estimates would lead you to believe.

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What does any of this have to do with the topic at hand, i.e. the population of downtown Nashville?

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If anyone has statistics, I would love to see a comparison of DT populations in cities about the same size as Nashville. We are not in a contest here with any one city. I think its great to compare similarities at times, but for some reason civic pride gets in the way.

Just remember we have a long way to go here as compared to cities a lot smaller than Nashville. As for potential , yes we have have a lot of potential, but bring that potential to fruition is going to be a major undertaking with respect to the nations housing market right now.

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First of all Rardy...you prefer to believe that your numbers are correct and others' are wrong. There are differing views on growth rates and some have Memphis going backwards, not forwards.

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First of all Rardy...you prefer to believe that your numbers are correct and others' are wrong. There are differing views on growth rates and some have Memphis going backwards, not forwards.

Those numbers aren't taking into account Memphis' annexations since 2000. And I definitely agree that Memphis' population has been dropping substantially, and would be reflected in its population statistics were it not for their ability to annex.

And I definitely also agree that this is far off the topic of this post...

So, anyway...yay for Nashville for potentially having 10,000 downtown residents by 2010. :thumbsup:

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If anyone has statistics, I would love to see a comparison of DT populations in cities about the same size as Nashville. We are not in a contest here with any one city. I think its great to compare similarities at times, but for some reason civic pride gets in the way.

Just remember we have a long way to go here as compared to cities a lot smaller than Nashville. As for potential , yes we have have a lot of potential, but bring that potential to fruition is going to be a major undertaking with respect to the nations housing market right now.

I was told by people at the Nashville Downtown Partnership that cities that are considered "peer cities" like Charlotte and Memphis have an average downtown ratio of 9:1 office workers to downtown residents. Factoring in all of the new residents of proposed projects for 2005, they said Nashville is estimated to have a 19:1 office worker to resident ration. We have a long way to go, which is why I think the oversaturation fears are pretty ridiculous.

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I was told by people at the Nashville Downtown Partnership that cities that are considered "peer cities" like Charlotte and Memphis have an average downtown ratio of 9:1 office workers to downtown residents. Factoring in all of the new residents of proposed projects for 2005, they said Nashville is estimated to have a 19:1 office worker to resident ration. We have a long way to go, which is why I think the oversaturation fears are pretty ridiculous.

Thanks for the input! I agree with your assertion as well. The area with in a mile of the DT core probably has a 1000 acres of redevelopment land and we have a long way to go before the saturation point. I look at each condo tower going up as a subdivision adn there are dozens of subdivisions going up on the outskirts of the city. With more people living DT there will be more job opportunities. The next ten years will be the renaissance of the East bank of the river, so there will be a lot of development there.

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Thanks for the input! I agree with your assertion as well. The area with in a mile of the DT core probably has a 1000 acres of redevelopment land and we have a long way to go before the saturation point. I look at each condo tower going up as a subdivision adn there are dozens of subdivisions going up on the outskirts of the city. With more people living DT there will be more job opportunities. The next ten years will be the renaissance of the East bank of the river, so there will be a lot of development there.

I agree as well.....as long as prices don't continue skyrocketing. My biggest fear is that downtown living becomes unreachable except for the exceptionally well off. There needs to always be a supply of housing affordable to moderate income people.

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I agree as well.....as long as prices don't continue skyrocketing. My biggest fear is that downtown living becomes unreachable except for the exceptionally well off. There needs to always be a supply of housing affordable to moderate income people.

I think that you're right. A whole bunch of middle-class people living near downtown mixed in with the high-end condo dwellers will actually support a wider range of grocery stores and retail than will a strictly wealthy lot who are more "exclusive" in their purchasing and entertainment choices and will probably run down to Cool Springs anyway. The term, "affordable," does not necessarily mean "projects" or subsidized housing, just housing that working people can actually afford and would want to live in. This will truly boost a vibrant downtown.

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I think that you're right. A whole bunch of middle-class people living near downtown mixed in with the high-end condo dwellers will actually support a wider range of grocery stores and retail than will a strictly wealthy lot who are more "exclusive" in their purchasing and entertainment choices and will probably run down to Cool Springs anyway. The term, "affordable," does not necessarily mean "projects" or subsidized housing, just housing that working people can actually afford and would want to live in. This will truly boost a vibrant downtown.

Exactly. It always confuses me when I see middle and working class people rally against "affordable housing". They'll usually give excuses like bringing down property value or bringing crime or too much density without fully understanding what the reasons behind something like a high crime rate are. They do this because they think, as you said, that affordable housing means government projects or something similar when in reality it just means that someone wants to build dwellings so people like them can afford to live in a certain spot. It's like they are fighting against themselves. The LAST thing Nashville needs to become is an exclusive hideaway for rich yuppies just looking for the next trend. If Nashville wants its urbanity to last and be more than just a trend it's got to appeal to regular people who want to live in the city because it is smarter, and not because it is trendier.

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