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Winter on the way


Snowguy716

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A frost advisory has been issued by the NWS with temperatures around northern MN expected to be near or just below freezing tonight. It has been chilly today.. and temperatures have not broken 51*F in Duluth. It is clearing up though and with very dry air, high pressure, clear skies, and no wind, temperatures will be on a downward spiral.

This is pretty early for a first frost. Average is about September 15th-20th for my city. This will definitely shock the trees further into color, and we will likely have a very early fall color season this year, as trees are already turning due to drought stress.

Winter is on its way, though. The Farmer's Almanac (not always accurate, but fun to look at) is calling for a much colder winter than average across the plains and upper midwest with above normal snowfall... we need it! Of course, the climate prediction center predicts a warm winter with equal chances on precip....

I'll just hope for normal. (As an avid downhill skier, I always hope for a snowy winter... and 2003/04 and 04/05 were snowier than normal. 05/06 ended very snowy, but I was gone)...can we continue the trend?

You got your first frost, and it's still over 90 degrees here. *sigh*

I don't want a frost or a freeze, but I'm really tired of 90+ degree weather. I'll gladly take the 70-75 range. :D

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The weather forecast for the next week is becoming very interesting with a major cold area of low pressure coming out of the plains.

They're saying some snow could mix in with the rain on Monday.. that's September 18th, folks. That'd be the earliest snow in my life time... and could be a foreboding sign of the winter to come.

If September is significantly colder than normal, the following winter is usually quite cold and snowy. Most recently 1993/94 and 1995/96 come to mind. Both were quite brutal in terms of cold weather.

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The forecast as of today for Monday is for a high of 41*F with a low of 34*F... despite being above freezing the whole time, snow can mix in at this temperature with such cold temperatures in the atmosphere. These were the types of temperatures that produced snow on September 21st, 1995 at noon.

Keep in mind that the average for September 18th is 67*F with a low of 44*F... so this is significant. Temperatures are except to remain below 50 Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

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The weather system is expected to roll in Saturday bringing rain/thunder all day. Temperatures will bein the upper 60s. Sunday temperatures are expected to top out near 50*F with rain showers before falling into the low 30s on Monday and not getting much above 40*F or so on Monday.

Then it begins to moderate again, but in true fall fashion, each step down is larger than the following step up.

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  • 4 weeks later...

It looks like this is going to be the big kahuna, with temperatures falling from a balmy 73*F yesterday to a brisk high of 55*F with high winds today. The temperatures in the low 50s will stay through Tuesday and then a strong storm system will drop down from Canada bringing near record cold and snowfall. Depending on how strong the system is will determine any accumulations, but they will likely be small. (less than 2-3 inches).

Temperatures will drop into the low 20s on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday before moderating again, but staying below normal:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND

551 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-

026>030-038-039-049-052>054-091215-

WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-

WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-

EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-

SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-

WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-

PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-

GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-

RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-

551 AM CDT SUN OCT 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH

DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 40 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID

MORNING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTHCENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO THE

MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS THIS FRONT MOVES

AWAY FROM THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A MORE INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA FROM CENTTRAL

CANADA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 20 TO 25 DEGREES

BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY WITH ABNORMALLY COLD CONDITIONS PERSISTING

INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IS

POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE

TEENS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$

GUST

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Freeze warnings have been issued for most of central and northern Minnesota as the front is approaching and has dropped temperatures in Winnipeg, Manitoba below freezing (quite a feat at 3:30pm in early/mid October).

1-3 inch snow accumulations are possible for northwestern and north central Minnesota with temperatures dropping into the mid 20s and remaining below freezing tomorrow and ultimately dropping into the upper 10s and low 20s on Thursday morning.

In Northeastern MN in the Arrowhead, a winter storm watch has been issued with snow accumulations of 8+" expected with NW winds of 35mph or more, which could cause blizzard conditions.

Certainly a rude awakening!

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We've had a bit of snow... but only enough to leave a trace. Parts of northern MN got more with an inch of two on the ground.

Buffalo got hit by a pretty nasty storm though, setting records for snowfall in October.

This reminds me of the great Halloween blizzard of 1991. That year, forecasters had called for mostly a rain event with maybe a couple inches of snow to finish off the storm. Boy, were they wrong! The temperatures dropped faster than expected as the storm strengthened. It began snowing in Minneapolis on Halloween day and there were already several inches of snow on the ground by evening.

People went out trick-or-treating with costumes over their snow suits.

By blizzard covered the entire state with anywhere from 12-40 inches of snow, burying Duluth and hte north shore with snow that didn't melt until spring. Once the storm had dumped about 18" of snow on Bemidji, temperatures dropped down below 0*F and the lakes froze, about 2 weeks early, catching many off guard that still had docks in the water for late season anglers.

No blizzard quite like it has affected us since. In January 2004, 28" of snow did fall in Duluth in a 24 hour period, but the wind was lower, and it was in January. In January 2005, about 30" fell on the north shore in a 2 day period... right before and during our ski vacation there. It was so amazing to wake up at 8 in the morning to 2 feet of fresh powder on the slopes and temperatures around 10*F, making the snow perfect.

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We had our first frost last night/this morning here in parts of the Columbia area. This is a little early for the first frost, but I'm not complaining. We should have our first light freeze in the next 2-3 weeks and our first hard freeze by mid-November. Winter is on its way; yea!

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We had our first frost last night/this morning here in parts of the Columbia area. This is a little early for the first frost, but I'm not complaining. We should have our first light freeze in the next 2-3 weeks and our first hard freeze by mid-November. Winter is on its way; yea!
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