The Sick Man of the Midwest

[Sunlover38]

What is the demographics of those "fleeing" Michigan? And what are the demographics of growth in a state like Arizona? First guess is retirees looking to get away from the harsh winters of Michigan . . .retirement communities in warm climates such as Arizona, Florida, etc. are booming . . . .that'd be the reason I would leave . . . .to get away from the god-awful way too long winters . . .

[GRDadof3]

What is the demographics of those "fleeing" Michigan? And what are the demographics of growth in a state like Arizona? First guess is retirees looking to get away from the harsh winters of Michigan . . .retirement communities in warm climates such as Arizona, Florida, etc. are booming . . . .that'd be the reason I would leave . . . .to get away from the god-awful way too long winters . . .

Au contraire, perhaps you haven't heard, but Southern Florida and Arizona are not booming, they are BUSTING big time right now. This has just begun to happen over the past 6 months and is expected to get much worse. Many national homebuilders are looking to or have pulled the plugs on these markets.

Also, the Baby Boomers are not going to be around forever, and their demand for condos is soon going to switch to nursing homes, or they will move in with their grown kids who most likely did not make the move with them to Southern states.

[Ka3kab]

And I suppose those liberal states of New York, Massachusetts and California and reeling in their liberal ideology right now also. Oh, right, their not. Michigan is going to continue to suffer as long as idiots like Granholm and Engler continue to give large, wealty companies huge tax breaks to build here. Sure it creates a few hundred jobs for the area where they are built, but the loss of tax money to the communities they are built in will destroy these areas in the long run. Look at Flint, hardly any tax money from GM and Delphi anymore and those companies still shut down factories and move them down south or to Mexico or some other place they can get the poor indegent population to sweat it out for 75 cents an hour. No money for the Police and Fire Departments, roads are crumbling, garbage doesnt get picked up and people are making a mass exodus from the city.

Another point, Michigan is not that liberal (for the record, neither am I) only 15 counties voted for Kerry in 04. It just happens that most of those counties are large and can beat out the rest of the state with their populations. And this includes West Michigan as well, don't forget Grand Rapidians, you have Muskegon and Kalamazoo Counties in your neck of the woods and can probebly count Ingham as well.

One last point about Kent County, I hardly think that it's a Republican stronghold when 116,000 voted Democrat in the last presidential election to the Republicans 170,000. I would call Wayne Counties 600,000 dem. votes to 271,000 rep. votes a stonghold.

[CK1]

I have no fancy articles to quote or government statistics to post on this one...seems others have that very well covered on this thread. What I can say is what I hear when I am out at night in Grand Rapids, and when I am working all day with my co-workers and clients (many of whom are in the 25-35 age bracket) - people WANT to be in Michigan (especially West Michigan). I have many friends in the GR area that have moved here knowing virtually no one, and having no other reason to move here other than having a job, which was obtained due to the desire to live in GR.

A good measuring stick of where things are going...go to any of the many area colleges / universities, and see how many of the students from out-of-state plan on staying in the Grand Rapids area...you'd be surprised at the high number, and with Grand Valley attracting significantly more out-of-state students, I can only imagine that this number will increase. Granted, Michigan students go to out-of-state schools and stay away for some years after graduating, but again, more times than not, when it comes time to start a family, guess where they want to move

[Snowguy716]

[url= Sick Man of the Midwest Michigan

[MJLO]

Ok, so I was already to make this long counter arguement, but I got tired of all the hot air I was exuding. I think we can all agree, the article in question is one giant hyperbole. Michigans economic situation is not perfect. However is far from dire. Most Michigan residents don't even feel the "pinch" if you will.

Michigan is going thru an inevitable economic cycle, as its economy adjusts itself to a changing world.

The American Auto industry is suffering and faltering simply because it's building vehicles that the public isn't buying. Don't talk to me about unions and legacy costs. While they are not helping anything. GM is still reporting quarterly profits. The indicator, is every month business news reports that they are losing MARKET SHARE. If GM were still 50 percent of the domestic auto industry, and they were struggling to stay afloat then you could start talking about the unions tanking them.

There are plenty of jobs to be found in the state, the bottom line is this. You can no longer make twice the average national wage in the Michigan without a secular education. As is the case with the rest of the country. I'd imagine this mass exudos that has been talked about, has something to do with residents who haven't fully been able to adjust to this.

[monsoon]

Having read that article I think it is a bunch of nonsense as well.

The big issue isn't labor unions or tax policy. The issue is that much of Michigan has tied its fortunes to the American based car industry which means the decisions of just 3 CEO's are responsible for a huge segment of the state's economy, and one of these guys is really located in Germany now. These people are not elected and only answer to the share holders which are mostly large institutionalized investors that have no vested interest in the local population of the state. Guess who is going to lose out when they screw up?

These guys are more than happy to blame the demise on the car industry on Michigan's laws and unionized labor, as it takes the focus off of their own failings as they continue to fatten their own wallets. I was looking at a Chrysler 300 that was sitting in a local mall a couple of weeks ago. I was surprised to find the famous Hemi engine was built in Mexico, the transmission came from highly unionized Germany, and the rest of the car was assembled in Canada where they more liberal than the bluest state in the USA. Michigan laws and unions had nothing to do with this ponderous, ugly vehicle that even the ridiculous "Dr. Z" adverts can't get people to take notice of. Somehow the national review, in its "in depth analysis" has completely missed these facts.

[AlexPKeaton]

There are very few American cars I would consider buying. Building crap is half the issue. For some reason I don't get the impression that the Big 3 are run by people that are actually passionate about cars and the driving experience. I'm sure some of it's changed lately if you look at the new Chevy Corvette and the Pontiac Solstice, and I think build quality has increased as well. They still have to get over the negative perception, but that's certainly doable if they stay on the right track and produce good cars.

But I have to disagree with those of you discounting the effect of unions. Hourly workers at Delphi were making something like $60/hour after the costs of benefits were factored in. That's ridiculous. That's far more than I make, and my job requires a college degree and is technical in nature. The US may not be able to compete in small manufacturing, but there's no reason we can't compete in the auto industry. The reason Toyota, BMW, and Hyundai build plants in the US is because they can build cars here and make a profit. Labor cost is small relative to the entire cost of building a car, so we don't need to build them in China to compete. But $60/hour? Get real. I could see $20-25 as being realistic, but not $60.

-nb

[HolidayInnExpress]

I think Michigan, likely more than any other state, represents the true fate and state of the nation. There is an economic concept called

[RustTown]

I'd never thought of it that way. It seems like what shot us to stardom is on track to take us down.

[gvsusean]

I think Michigan, likely more than any other state, represents the true fate and state of the nation. There is an economic concept called

[HolidayInnExpress]

first of all prove the bold statements, there is no truth to them.

second, I italisized 3 things: 1) We are switching to an economy where our tradeable goods are no longer shelvable i.e. ideas, innovations, creativity. 2) We sell more goods now (manufatured) than at any other time in our nations history. You want to know whats better than cheap labor??? no labor i.e. automation thats whats happening to jobs. 3) America IS shifting to a service economy we are already there, this is the natural progression of an economy, you know the farmers said the same stuff you do when manufacturing was taking away farmers

finally the underline, since when does value equal cheaper.... value is getting the most bang for your buck and last i checked its worth buying Bells over Bud.

I don

[gvsusean]

I don

[HolidayInnExpress]

I guess I was hoping you could prove your statements say they have value. If they are unprovable then why would you believe them??? As far as no one can stay on top, I agree, but that is not what your post was about, it ws about us going down downhill economically, look at England, France, and Italy.

Well, hypothetically, if you received a cut in pay in over the last two years, yet, your credit limit was extended to compensate for it, you would not notice a reduction in your standard of living. Things would still apparently look good for you to your neighbors. However, this model is unsustainable. One cannot continue to borrow faster than their real income growth to maintain. At some point in time spending has to fall in line with income. Borrowing simply makes it worse and sets one up for a greater fall.

America today is borrowing the maintenance of its life style and not earning it. The personal savings rate of Americans is ZERO. The nation is running a tremendous federal budget deficit and the nation balance of accounts (trade) is in huge deficit. Foreigners are financing our consumption. If the nation retracted its spending back in line with its real income today, the nation would go into a depression due to the cut back in consumption.

[MJLO]

Holidayinnexpress,

You are neither a prophet nor a visionary. All of your arguements given can be found in any entry level economics textbook. You have succeeded in showing us all how much you love hearing yourself talk however. I'd suggest showing a little personality when posting, it gets a little tedius when I read one of your posts. Which are always negative, wordy, and with little substance. (What I'm trying to say is lighten up. PLEASE, we all know you're smart. And have a wide ranging vocabulary. Now show us the people skills you know you have.)

The only thing I can agree with you on is the point about deficit. But more than anything that's attributed to the liberal application of Keynesian Economic Theory over the past 70 years. The government has been financing the economy to get people to spend for decades and at this point if it were to stop. It would throw the entire worlds economy into a depression. What scares me more is that noone in power seems to be doing anything about it. At some point it will correct itself when the deficit is so huge the economy collapses.

Things are not always as black and white as one makes them.

[WOT]

Holidayinnexpress,

You are neither a prophet nor a visionary. All of your arguements given can be found in any entry level economics textbook. You have succeeded in showing us all how much you love hearing yourself talk however. I'd suggest showing a little personality when posting, it gets a little tedius when I read one of your posts. Which are always negative, wordy, and with little substance. (What I'm trying to say is lighten up. PLEASE, we all know you're smart. And have a wide ranging vocabulary. Now show us the people skills you know you have.)

The only thing I can agree with you on is the point about deficit. But more than anything that's attributed to the liberal application of Keynesian Economic Theory over the past 70 years. The government has been financing the economy to get people to spend for decades and at this point if it were to stop. It would throw the entire worlds economy into a depression. What scares me more is that noone in power seems to be doing anything about it. At some point it will correct itself when the deficit is so huge the economy collapses.

Things are not always as black and white as one makes them.

Wasn't it Keynes who said "in the long-run we are all dead"

HIE's line about the continuation of current trends unless WAR is introduced hit home the hardest for me because unfortunately I am scared to death that is exactly where we are headed. I'm not just speaking of the situation in IRAQ, but a much, much BIGGER war. I am frightened to death at what I see happening in the Middle East and aroud the world.

I am not a very "politically' minded person but for the last 2 months I have just been thinking that someone needs to sit down in a private room and talk Colin Powell into running for the White House. One of the things that scares me the most about 2008 is that if Hillary is elected -she will again polarize the Republicans into an immediate hate/block/demonizing and we will get another 4 years of what Bush is experiencing - > which leaves the populus as the losers, i.e. we make no real substantial gains in moving our states and nation forward. Liberal or Conservative - the next President of the United States needs to be a great leader in vision, motivation, diplomacy and in my opinion HUMILITY. I believe humility does not have to equal weakness in our present worldwide situation.

Finally, it weirds me out sometimes that I think no one else is paying attention to what is going on in the world around us and just how tense I perceive them to be. I hope I am wrong and that the majority of people are paying attention - I just don't know

[MJLO]

very well put

[HolidayInnExpress]

Holidayinnexpress,

You are neither a prophet nor a visionary. All of your arguements given can be found in any entry level economics textbook. You have succeeded in showing us all how much you love hearing yourself talk however. I'd suggest showing a little personality when posting, it gets a little tedius when I read one of your posts. Which are always negative, wordy, and with little substance. (What I'm trying to say is lighten up. PLEASE, we all know you're smart. And have a wide ranging vocabulary. Now show us the people skills you know you have.)

The only thing I can agree with you on is the point about deficit. But more than anything that's attributed to the liberal application of Keynesian Economic Theory over the past 70 years. The government has been financing the economy to get people to spend for decades and at this point if it were to stop. It would throw the entire worlds economy into a depression. What scares me more is that noone in power seems to be doing anything about it. At some point it will correct itself when the deficit is so huge the economy collapses.

Things are not always as black and white as one makes them.

Your opinion of my commentary is noted. I am glad that you see me as I see myself in that neither you nor I see me as a prophet or visionary. The level of college economics that one could find my explanation is irrelevant to their validity or invalidity. Are you suggesting that all freshman level economic theory is invalid due to it being elementary? Moreover, I believe that personality is for person-to-person interchanges, not intellectual interchanges of ideas.

If you find fault in anything that I have to say you are certainly free to refute it. However, I find it annoying that you feel the need to attack my person. If I lack personality...that