Downtown Raleigh's Future

[carolina1792]

3 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Found this building Highwoods is marketing in downtown Raleigh.  Does this project have another name I don't recall this tower proposal.

Edge | Highwoods

It's called Never-Going-To-Be-Built. Raleigh-based Highwoods does not want to invest in Raleigh, they're going hard on Nashville. If anything, their next downtown project--if at all, will be the 40-story zoned Hargett St property by the Dillon. Again, they have zero real tower proposals in Raleigh. 

[KJHburg]

Highwoods has some leadership changes in the last few years and I do think they are serious about this tower.  Of course they may want an anchor tenant and this is indeed on a vacant lot next to the Skyhouse.  Their new leadership is committing to more urban type buildings and that seems to be their strategy.  Just because they built mostly suburban in the past does not mean things don't change.  This building is not huge in square footage and maybe something they want to do before builder even bigger.  What purpose does it serve to market an office tower in downtown Raleigh  if they never have any plans to build?  They are pulling out of some smaller markets like Memphis and Greensboro and doing more work in the Charlotte, Nashville and yes Raleigh areas.  and they have stated they prefer the best in class and sought after areas.  I would think downtown Raleigh fits that bill.   And Raleigh is growing faster than Nashville by the way. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by KJHburg

[KJHburg]

9 hours ago, eagle rock said:

This is actually the gravel beside Skyhouse 

 

Correct and yes it does look similar to the proposal at 121 Fayetteville but this is a whole new project. 

[RALNATIVE]

1 hour ago, KJHburg said:

Highwoods has some leadership changes in the last few years and I do think they are serious about this tower.  Of course they may want an anchor tenant and this is indeed on a vacant lot next to the Skyhouse.  Their new leadership is committing to more urban type buildings and that seems to be their strategy.  Just because they built mostly suburban in the past does not mean things don't change.  This building is not huge in square footage and maybe something they want to do before builder even bigger.  What purpose does it serve to market an office tower in downtown Raleigh  if they never have any plans to build?  They are pulling out of some smaller markets like Memphis and Greensboro and doing more work in the Charlotte, Nashville and yes Raleigh areas.  and they have stated they prefer the best in class and sought after areas.  I would think downtown Raleigh fits that bill.   And Raleigh is growing faster than Nashville by the way. 

I agree with you. Highwoods is moving aggressively with get the land that they owned in the warehouse district rezoned. They would not be making these moves if they were not planning something substantial in DT Raleigh.

[carolina1792]

Holiday Inn in Downtown Raleigh has been purchased for redevelopment by Tidal Real Estate. This is there second downtown site they have purchased recently. Expect a tower project. 

[KJHburg]

I sure hope the Holiday Inn stays it is a landmark.  Maybe redone as another brand or upgrade but it is a landmark on the skyline. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by KJHburg

[carolina1792]

Northpond Partners of Chicago purchased two lots, 401 Hillsborough St. and 17 S. West St., currently zoned for 20 stories and occupied by several business and a school. They will seek to upzoning to 40 stories eventually. This is across the street from the 400H project currently being constructed. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2021 by carolina1792

[NcSc74]

Raleigh has momentum.  If only PNC arena was downtown.  Oh the possibilities that would come with national exposure.  As a side note.  I have family in Northern New Jersey and they all acknowledge Raleigh as an "it" city.  Deveoplers should take note and build now.

On 12/11/2021 at 8:56 AM, KJHburg said:

Highwoods has some leadership changes in the last few years and I do think they are serious about this tower.  Of course they may want an anchor tenant and this is indeed on a vacant lot next to the Skyhouse.  Their new leadership is committing to more urban type buildings and that seems to be their strategy.  Just because they built mostly suburban in the past does not mean things don't change.  This building is not huge in square footage and maybe something they want to do before builder even bigger.  What purpose does it serve to market an office tower in downtown Raleigh  if they never have any plans to build?  They are pulling out of some smaller markets like Memphis and Greensboro and doing more work in the Charlotte, Nashville and yes Raleigh areas.  and they have stated they prefer the best in class and sought after areas.  I would think downtown Raleigh fits that bill.   And Raleigh is growing faster than Nashville by the way. 

Isnt the Raleigh/Cary MSA close to Nashville MSA in residents.  Also, no one in the know considers the Raleigh area as seperate from Durhan anyway. Somebody put in a good bribe to the folks in DC.

[KJHburg]

23 minutes ago, NcSc74 said:

Isnt the Raleigh/Cary MSA close to Nashville MSA in residents.  Also, no one in the know considers the Raleigh area as seperate from Durhan anyway. Somebody put in a good bribe to the folks in DC.

Yes if Raleigh Durham Cary were one metro area like they had been in the past it would be bigger than metro Nashville.  It needs to be one metro as the rest of the country knows it that way and there is even more cross commuting now.  Part of Cary town limits are in Chatham County the Durham metro.  Raleigh city limits extend a bit into Durham county another metro area.  

[Raleigh Walker]

19 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Yes if Raleigh Durham Cary were one metro area like they had been in the past it would be bigger than metro Nashville.  It needs to be one metro as the rest of the country knows it that way and there is even more cross commuting now.  Part of Cary town limits are in Chatham County the Durham metro.  Raleigh city limits extend a bit into Durham county another metro area.  

Yep and parts of Raleigh are closer to downtown Durham than DTR, like Brier Creek for example. 12 miles from downtown Durham, 22 miles from DTR. Super goofy. 

[Reverie39]

On 12/21/2021 at 3:39 PM, KJHburg said:

Yes if Raleigh Durham Cary were one metro area like they had been in the past it would be bigger than metro Nashville.  It needs to be one metro as the rest of the country knows it that way and there is even more cross commuting now.  Part of Cary town limits are in Chatham County the Durham metro.  Raleigh city limits extend a bit into Durham county another metro area.  

What is the actual reason that Durham and Chapel Hill are not considered part of the same metro area as Raleigh? Does the Census Bureau use some sort of statistic to distinguish MSAs? It seems really wonky to me given that Raleigh literally borders Durham and tens of thousands of people live in Raleigh/Cary/Morrisville/elsewhere and commute to RTP/Durham/Chapel/etc. and vice-versa. It's definitely one big interconnected region, literally has its own nationally-recognized name that by definition includes the three cities lol.

[KJHburg]

4 hours ago, Reverie39 said:

What is the actual reason that Durham and Chapel Hill are not considered part of the same metro area as Raleigh? Does the Census Bureau use some sort of statistic to distinguish MSAs? It seems really wonky to me given that Raleigh literally borders Durham and tens of thousands of people live in Raleigh/Cary/Morrisville/elsewhere and commute to RTP/Durham/Chapel/etc. and vice-versa. It's definitely one big interconnected region, literally has its own nationally-recognized name that by definition includes the three cities lol.

they base it supposedly on commuting patterns but it was one metro area before in the early 2000s then changed in 2010 and hopefully goes back to one metro area.  I think they do it the reclassifications this coming year and will realign if necessary.  But to me it is one metro.  People in Chatham in Durham metro commute to Wake County and Durham residents commute into Wake for sure.  To me it is important that they are combined to show the real size of the metro which is over 2 million.  

[Raleigh Walker]

20 hours ago, Reverie39 said:

What is the actual reason that Durham and Chapel Hill are not considered part of the same metro area as Raleigh? Does the Census Bureau use some sort of statistic to distinguish MSAs? It seems really wonky to me given that Raleigh literally borders Durham and tens of thousands of people live in Raleigh/Cary/Morrisville/elsewhere and commute to RTP/Durham/Chapel/etc. and vice-versa. It's definitely one big interconnected region, literally has its own nationally-recognized name that by definition includes the three cities lol.

My wife and I are two of them! We live in Midtown Raleigh and I commute to Durham (RTP) for work, and my wife commutes to downtown Durham. I know SEVERAL of my coworkers also live in Raleigh.  I too hope that they realign. I wonder what the pops of a Raleigh-Durham-Cary-Chapel Hill MSA would actually be? And how it would affect the CSA?

[Reverie39]

21 hours ago, KJHburg said:

they base it supposedly on commuting patterns but it was one metro area before in the early 2000s then changed in 2010 and hopefully goes back to one metro area.  I think they do it the reclassifications this coming year and will realign if necessary.  But to me it is one metro.  People in Chatham in Durham metro commute to Wake County and Durham residents commute into Wake for sure.  To me it is important that they are combined to show the real size of the metro which is over 2 million.  

Oh really, I didn't know they were doing reclassifications in 2022. I figured they happened automatically when Census info was published (so this past year). I think they should realign into one metro - it's a minor point that's mostly about image, but image can matter when convincing people and companies to move to an area. 

 

5 hours ago, Raleigh Walker said:

My wife and I are two of them! We live in Midtown Raleigh and I commute to Durham (RTP) for work, and my wife commutes to downtown Durham. I know SEVERAL of my coworkers also live in Raleigh.  I too hope that they realign. I wonder what the pops of a Raleigh-Durham-Cary-Chapel Hill MSA would actually be? And how it would affect the CSA?

We'd probably end up in a Charlotte situation where the CSA is barely larger than the MSA. So I'd expect the MSA to have around 1.9 million maybe, and the CSA at 2.1 million (maybe 2.2 by now) as measured for the 2020 census. For comparison Charlotte's MSA is 2.6 million and CSA is just under 2.8 million.

[Raleigh Walker]

17 hours ago, Reverie39 said:

Oh really, I didn't know they were doing reclassifications in 2022. I figured they happened automatically when Census info was published (so this past year). I think they should realign into one metro - it's a minor point that's mostly about image, but image can matter when convincing people and companies to move to an area. 

 

We'd probably end up in a Charlotte situation where the CSA is barely larger than the MSA. So I'd expect the MSA to have around 1.9 million maybe, and the CSA at 2.1 million (maybe 2.2 by now) as measured for the 2020 census. For comparison Charlotte's MSA is 2.6 million and CSA is just under 2.8 million.

I agree with both of your points. It is a point that's mostly about image, but also realistic expectations for newcomers (residents and businesses alike). People see that Raleigh only has 1.1M and Durham has 650k they think it's pretty small. For comparison's sake Little Rock AR MSA is almost 750k, so bigger than Durham. LRAR is smaller than Durham in both city population and realistic MSA population. Someone who doesn't know what's what around here will get the wrong impression. We all here on this forum and other urban/city forums know that the 2 cities and their residents interact on a daily basis....so it's high time. I agree with you that I think the MSA would be around that, surely a range of 1.9-2.1M with a CSA of 2.1-2.3M.  

[Richhamleigh, DC]

We don't have any leadership in DC to fight for NC.  NC is the redheaded stepchild of the South.  How Brunswick County is NOT part of Wilmington's MSA as it always had been is only political.  When corporations look at locations, the size of the MSA is a big factor.  Fight back, NC

[Raleigh Walker]

Is there anything we can actually do? A petition, person to contact, etc.?

[KJHburg]

33 minutes ago, Raleigh Walker said:

Is there anything we can actually do? A petition, person to contact, etc.?

Maybe...   seems like folks over in Chapel Hill were upset the Raleigh Durham Chapel Hill MSA was being broken into 2.  

read this 

https://townhall.townofchapelhill.org/archives/agendas/ca000925/4f-MSA Change-FINAL.htm

and if the Triangle is brought back together as one metro it will likely be called Raleigh Durham Cary !  (and even Apex has more people than Chapel Hill but I would argue CH has more of an employment base than Apex but certainly  not more than Cary)   

[QCxpat]

4 hours ago, KJHburg said:

Maybe...   seems like folks over in Chapel Hill were upset the Raleigh Durham Chapel Hill MSA was being broken into 2.  

read this 

https://townhall.townofchapelhill.org/archives/agendas/ca000925/4f-MSA Change-FINAL.htm

and if the Triangle is brought back together as one metro it will likely be called Raleigh Durham Cary !  (and even Apex has more people than Chapel Hill but I would argue CH has more of an employment base than Apex but certainly  not more than Cary)   

On January 19, 2021, The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) requested pubic comments on recommendations it received from the Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Area Standards Review Committee for changes to OMB's metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area standards.  Comments had to be received within 60 days from publication of the notice.  (More than 60 days have elapsed since the publication date.)  Comments could be sent electronically via www.regulations.gov.

The Committee made the following recommendations in their report to OMB for changes to the 2010 metropolitan and micropolitan statistical area standards: 

(1) The minimum urban area population to qualify as a metropolitan statistical area should be increased from 50,000 to 100,000,

(2) The delineation of New England city and town areas (NECTAs), NECTA divisions, and combined NECTAs should be discontinued,

(3) Research should be undertaken on an additional, territorially exhaustive classification that covers all of the US and Puerto Rico,

(4) The first annual delineation update of the coming decade should be combined with the decennial-based delineations,

(5) OMB should make publicly available a schedule for updates to the core based statistical areas,  and

(6) OMB should continue use of the American Community Survey commuting data in measurement of intercounty connectivity, though changing societal and economic trends may warrant considering changes in the 2030 standards.   

 

Under the proposed standards, OMB would release three different type of updates.

Annual updates would address the qualification of new metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas. 

The Five-Year (mid-decade) Update would include, without limitation:

• (1) qualifications of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas,
• (2) merging of adjacent metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas, and
• (3) titling of metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas. 

The Decennial Delineation would include the initial re-delineations following adoption of the revised standards. 

 

The release dates for the Decennial Delineation, Annual Updates, and Five-Year Update are as follows:

Update type	Release date
Decennial Delineation	June 2023.
Annual Update	December 2024.
Annual Update	December 2025.
Annual Update	December 2026.
Annual Update	December 2027.
Five-Year Update	December 2028.
Annual Update	December 2029.

 

Please note that OMB uses the following criteria / definitions -

MSAs are composed of "entire counties".

For Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), the employment interchange measure between counties must be 25% or greater.   

For Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs), the employment interchange measure between counties must be at least 15% but less than 25%.

Where the employment interchange measure is at least 15% but less than 25%, combination of MSAs should occur only if local opinion in both areas is in favor, and that combination should occur automatically if the employment interchange measure equals or exceeds 25%.

OMB rules also allow for the consideration of local opinion in the titling of CSAs.

 

Links: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2021/01/19/2021-00988/recommendations-from-the-metropolitan-and-micropolitan-statistical-area-standards-review-committee

https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/metro-micro/about/glossary.html

https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2000/12/27/00-32997/standards-for-defining-metropolitan-and-micropolitan-statistical-areas

Edited December 30, 2021 by QCxpat

[rancenc]

Nice short video from Our State magazine.

https://www.ourstate.com/a-locals-guide-to-raleigh/

 

[carolina1792]

BizJournal reports that Post Road Group of Connecticut has purchased the Marbles Museum parking lot that is zoned for up to 30 stories and plans to build a high rise mix-use tower as soon as this year. That's quite the aggressive timeline. 

 

 

[KJHburg]

2 hours ago, carolina1792 said:

BizJournal reports that Post Road Group of Connecticut has purchased the Marbles Museum parking lot that is zoned for up to 30 stories and plans to build a high rise mix-use tower as soon as this year. That's quite the aggressive timeline. 

 

 

I saw that too 4Q start which means they have plans for the tower that seems like it would be 20-30 stories tall and they must have financing lined up IF 4th quarter this year is true.

I think downtown Raleigh is going to see more cranes this year than any year in its history.  

[RALNATIVE]

On 1/6/2022 at 8:04 PM, KJHburg said:

I saw that too 4Q start which means they have plans for the tower that seems like it would be 20-30 stories tall and they must have financing lined up IF 4th quarter this year is true.

I think downtown Raleigh is going to see more cranes this year than any year in its history.  

To take it a bit further, if they have such an aggressive timeline and most likely financing already lined up, they must also have a major tenant already identified.

2022 should be an interesting year for announcements in Raleigh and the Triangle, as well as erection of cranes.

[nicholas]

2 hours ago, RALNATIVE said:

To take it a bit further, if they have such an aggressive timeline and most likely financing already lined up, they must also have a major tenant already identified.

2022 should be an interesting year for announcements in Raleigh and the Triangle, as well as erection of cranes.

If at least a decent number of proposals actually work out, Raleigh (and especially Durham) is going to look pretty different in a few years.  The number of proposed towers in Raleigh is getting hard to keep track of, and Durham has at least three 25+ story downtown towers planned which will definitely make a huge impact on the skyline there.

[RALNATIVE]

8 hours ago, nicholas said:

If at least a decent number of proposals actually work out, Raleigh (and especially Durham) is going to look pretty different in a few years.  The number of proposed towers in Raleigh is getting hard to keep track of, and Durham has at least three 25+ story downtown towers planned which will definitely make a huge impact on the skyline there.

Three? I was only aware of 1 or 2 proposed for Durham.