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Phizzy

US Population to Hit 300 Million Soon

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US Population Clock

Based on my calculations, the US will hit 300 million next Tuesday, October 17th, at 4:49 AM EST.

EDIT: New calculations, Tuesday, October 17th, at 5:35 AM EST.

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Woo hoo! 300 million...

Will we see 400 million? Maybe, but I highly doubt we'll ever see 500 million. I think we'll peak somewhere around 450 million or so sometime mid-Century before we begin to slowly decline in population.

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I read a cool article in the Wall Street Journal the other day that discussed us hitting the 300 million mark. It was a very optimistic article, the gist being that, in other words, there is more than enough room for everybody. It really made me feel good, in contrast to most news articles I read.....

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I just hope we start to infill our cities better as we march towards 400 million. I'd hate to see suburbia from sea to polluted sea!

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Woo hoo! 300 million...

Will we see 400 million? Maybe, but I highly doubt we'll ever see 500 million. I think we'll peak somewhere around 450 million or so sometime mid-Century before we begin to slowly decline in population.

Assuming a major disaster does not occur (natural, war, etc.), I can see no reason for a slow down to occur, I doubt the US will be in a situation like aged and settled Europe for centuries to come. We have the capacity to feed (produce) at least three times as many people as we have now, what will be nice to see is federal subsidies (and the inevitable waste they cause, sometimes purposefully) for farmers shrink as their excess capacity is needed and they can be more successful.

Also, I don't see birth rates for immigrants, particularly hispanics, slowing in only a generation or two, it may just increase, so I think we glide into 500 million in two generations. I was reading that article on Yahoo earlier, I believe it said we hit the 200 million mark in 1967, so in 39 years we have reached 300M, an addition of 100M. We can assume that the next 100M will take a shorter amount of time given the increase of rate from a higher base population, and so on until we hit some critical mass. But the US is large and can accomodate billions in all likelyhood. Sobering thought - this place will be unimaginably different then, I hope I live to see some of it.

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The fertility rate is a strong indicator of future growth. Right now, in the U.S, it's around 2.08, just about enough to replace the population. This is from lows of around 1.7 children per woman in the mid 1980s.

I think fertility and birth rates will continue to fall and that if immigration declines, the nation will begin to level off in population.

As far as cutting immigration back to what it was before LBJ, I don't see that happening any time soon.

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I hope they cut immigration back down to what it was before LBJ. Then this talk of 400mill won't come to pass.
Relative to total population, immigration now is nowhere near what it was in the late 19th-early 20th century. I have no idea of your ethnic background, but you can rest assured that past generations of conservatives made the same sort of statements against your ancestors coming here. There has always been resistance to immigration, and likewise there will always be immigration. This country would stagnate without it.

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I guess my shtick is.. if you're going to be anti-immigration, then you should also be anti-free trade...

Because if we're going to have a global economy than we have to have a globally mobile economy. We cannot let jobs move all over the world and expect that everyone stays in the same spot...

It's a very odd thing about "conservatives" now days.. opening free trade, which is actually a liberal idea, but opposing immigration.. how does that work?

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Relative to total population, immigration now is nowhere near what it was in the late 19th-early 20th century. I have no idea of your ethnic background, but you can rest assured that past generations of conservatives made the same sort of statements against your ancestors coming here. There has always been resistance to immigration, and likewise there will always be immigration. This country would stagnate without it.

English. Ancestor came over in the 1700s.

---

And Snowguy, bringing in these unskilled laborers from the third-world isn't going to help us compete. If we were only importing smart, and educated people, there would be no problems. These poor, unskilled, people contribute little, if not nothing, to the country and strain the resources to a breaking point.

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I wonder if that includes the illegals? There are supposed to be 60 million of them in the USA now.

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And Snowguy, bringing in these unskilled laborers from the third-world isn't going to help us compete. If we were only importing smart, and educated people, there would be no problems. These poor, unskilled, people contribute little, if not nothing, to the country and strain the resources to a breaking point.

Somebody has to work for subdivision contractors and low-cost car detailers (for example.) If only "smart and educationed people" came in, nobody would want to work those types of service jobs. In a weird way, it's like the food chain: somebody has to maintain the trains so people can get to work at hospitals, law firms, banks, etc. Every job has an effect on another job, making it easier. In this right, there is no job at the low end, regardless of pay. Every person works to serve others really, just in different ways. Even the CEO's of banks serve to make their customers and stockholders happy so their company doesn't go down the drain. Thus, if everybody works in the service industry in some form or another, there are different tiers of these jobs. If everybody was smart and educated to the same level, who's to say which people work those lower paying jobs if the level of skill should be equal?

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^We've got enough natives who can fill the majority of those low-end jobs, but many do not for a plethora of reasons.

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The fertility rate is a strong indicator of future growth. Right now, in the U.S, it's around 2.08, just about enough to replace the population. This is from lows of around 1.7 children per woman in the mid 1980s.

I think fertility and birth rates will continue to fall and that if immigration declines, the nation will begin to level off in population.

As far as cutting immigration back to what it was before LBJ, I don't see that happening any time soon.

It may be meaningful to look at the birth rates by their breakdowns (race, income, etc.), in which case the fastest growing groups also have the highest birth rates and so introduces the real element of explosive growth here, in addition to immigration itself. Also people living to be older is an increase, though that may decrease as the groups that live to be older decrease as a % of total pop.

Regarding clamping down on immigration, I find that to be an odd policy. One, the obvious - that's how almost all of us got here. Now that that is out of the way, the real reason - restrictive laws in these areas actually hurt us more than help. They make it difficult for the more "qualified" immigrants to get here than the ones who are going to come here illegally at any cost. The ones applying to do so legally are more educated, have more access to wealth and other "better" subjective qualities you hear people mention. For example, it takes the average Russian, who is better educated than the average American, more than 10 years to get to the US, if they are able to at all.

Another harmful aspect of restrictive immigration laws is that we miss a huge opportunity to document (and tax) a chunk of the illegals that would otherwise be inclined to officially register if it were easier to become a citizen. I don't think it is possible to over-estimate that factor - how many people would no longer risk week long journeys through deserts or slave-ship like ocean voyages to sneak into the country?

Yes, there is some harm that comes from high immigration, but we have to be realistic here - it is going to happen one way or the other, we might as well take measures that make it best for current residents. Otherwise we're being kind of foolish. We can police the borders all we want, it will only cost more of our tax dollars, and change practically nothing around immigration, except that we won't benefit from it when we could be.

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English. Ancestor came over in the 1700s.

So you're 100 percent English? No Irish, French or Italian in you at all?

I think America has always been a place that excepted the world's poor. I remember reading an archived article (from the NYT I think in the early 20th Century) in which the author complained that Italy was deliberately sending its poorest citizens to America.

Having said that, I don't necessarily appreciate how many of illegal immigrants still have allegience to their old countries (mostly Mexico); how they march in our streets carrying Mexican flags to prove their Americans; and how they demand as though it's a right that they be made citizens. It just doesn't make sense to me. If I moved to Italy, I would do what I could to preserve my American culture, but I would assimilate to Italy's culture......

And I don't really look for this to get solved soon. The Democrats like illegal immigrants because they see potential voters and Republicans like illegal immigrants because they're good for business.

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So you're 100 percent English? No Irish, French or Italian in you at all?

I think America has always been a place that excepted the world's poor. I remember reading an archived article (from the NYT I think in the early 20th Century) in which the author complained that Italy was deliberately sending its poorest citizens to America.

Having said that, I don't necessarily appreciate how many of illegal immigrants still have allegience to their old countries (mostly Mexico); how they march in our streets carrying Mexican flags to prove their Americans; and how they demand as though it's a right that they be made citizens. It just doesn't make sense to me. If I moved to Italy, I would do what I could to preserve my American culture, but I would assimilate to Italy's culture......

And I don't really look for this to get solved soon. The Democrats like illegal immigrants because they see potential voters and Republicans like illegal immigrants because they're good for business.

Well to be fair, you still see Italian and Irish (to name a few) public celebrations in certain parts of the country, and it was much more common for the "traditional" American immigrant groups celebrating their homelands a century ago.

I agree it would be quite rare indeed for anyone, even someone who grew up in England, to say they are "English" and end the statement there. Even to say you are English is to say you are more Briton(Celtic), but that the term "English" is the distortion of "Angle-ish", from the Germanic Angle conquerors, which also make up part of your ethnicity. Or the Welsh, Irish and Scots inclusion in "English" lines. Anyway, that is all secondary to the incredible amount of breeding between any number of ethnic groups that generations of being American will do to you unless your family has been insanely "careful" in the 1000+ ancestors you have had if your namesake came to America in the 1700's.

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^ Exactly. I'm English, French, Native American, and Irish. Not too many people in America can say their 100 percent of anything.

Yeah, it's cool with me if different groups hold parades and parties and such. That's what makes this country interesting. I'm going to our annual Greek Festival tonight as a matter of fact and I'm going to overeat like I always do. And I'll probably go to the Hispanic Festival in a few weeks. And I'll overeat like I always do. (And why do all of these festivals have to be in October? They're killing my diet!!! ) Even the English are throwing a festival I think (I'll eat afterwards for that one).

And I know the Irish throw flags up on my street on St. Pat's Day and that there is an Irish bar across from my house that keeps an Irish flag (along with an American flag) flying outside, and on St. Pat's Day you better believe I'll be somewhere drinking Guiness pretending to be 100 percent Irish for the day.

There is nothing wrong with showing pride in your culture.

It's just that the immigrant ancestors of the last 100 years never whined and complained about not being accepted into society. I know it was a different time then (and not as tolerant) but for the most part they came here, they worked hard, and they excelled. They did not march in the streets demanding stuff. That's the difference. Quick suggestion: When you move to a country and you want to convince the natives that you want to be a good citizen, marching down their street, wearing and waving the flag of your old country is probably not the best way to do it.

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"poor, uneducated, low-skilled"... I don't understand. Many immigrants come to this country and do crap-jobs that no middle class American or even lower class American would want to do.

They often have opportunities to become more educated and be more productive. Their children also have the opportunities to go to college and advance themselves. All something they would not have in their home country.

I find it a very extreme position to say "shut the border" and expect people to just pull themselves up by the bootstraps when they have no boots.

You don't keep a global economy healthy by allowing small numbers of people to amass great amounts of wealth, keeping people in their own countries, and keeping the poor uneducated and unskilled... yet that is what so many anti-immigration people want.

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^ Exactly. I'm English, French, Native American, and Irish. Not too many people in America can say their 100 percent of anything.

Yeah, it's cool with me if different groups hold parades and parties and such. That's what makes this country interesting. I'm going to our annual Greek Festival tonight as a matter of fact and I'm going to overeat like I always do. And I'll probably go to the Hispanic Festival in a few weeks. And I'll overeat like I always do. (And why do all of these festivals have to be in October? They're killing my diet!!! ) Even the English are throwing a festival I think (I'll eat afterwards for that one).

And I know the Irish throw flags up on my street on St. Pat's Day and that there is an Irish bar across from my house that keeps an Irish flag (along with an American flag) flying outside, and on St. Pat's Day you better believe I'll be somewhere drinking Guiness pretending to be 100 percent Irish for the day.

There is nothing wrong with showing pride in your culture.

It's just that the immigrant ancestors of the last 100 years never whined and complained about not being accepted into society. I know it was a different time then (and not as tolerant) but for the most part they came here, they worked hard, and they excelled. They did not march in the streets demanding stuff. That's the difference. Quick suggestion: When you move to a country and you want to convince the natives that you want to be a good citizen, marching down their street, wearing and waving the flag of your old country is probably not the best way to do it.

Man I love the Greek festivals, funny how they seem to have them everywhere, places small and large, I guess the Greeks have infiltrated the U.S. to the farthest reaches. ;) Now if only you could easily find some Jewish festivals, don't recall ever being around one of those..

Personally I am proud to be of every "race" in my ethnic makeup, though it is more like some form of nostalgia for lack of a better term. I assume most people are too, perhaps the "new" Americans just need a few more generations for certain people to be comfortable with them, and themselves with being an American first and foremost. The Irish were hated when they first came to this country, Germans were hated around WW! and WWII, so on and so on. I am only a 16th Cherokee, but I still consider it fantastically dumb for any pol to talk about 'immigration' as a negative...

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^ Very true and don't think I'm trying to sugarcoat prior immigration waves. Almost every ethnic group that has ever entered this country has been viewed in a negative way (except for the good upper European Protestants), and then over time they were accepted into the culture. I don't really think anyone is against immigration per se (at least I'm not), it's just the illegal immigration that upsets so many people, and I can understand that very well.

I agree, the Greeks seem to be everywhere and man that's some good food. Though the Hispanic festival is coming up and I'm looking forward to getting some good authentic Mexican food. There must be 500 Mexican restaurants in this town and they all serve the same food off the same menu!!!! :angry:

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No one is against immigration. Its just the NUMBER of immigrants that are coming in!

We don't need millions coming in each year, we need maybe 100,000 a year. And those 100,000 should be educated and skilled. Many of the problems that the left complains about, poverty, crime, are concentrated in these areas where immigrants come in! If there were fewer new immigrants, few parts of the US would look like third-world countries.

We have enough unskilled and uneducated labor as it is. It is not the United State's reponsibility to take in the unskilled people.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=40...rsusa&hl=en

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There must be 500 Mexican restaurants in this town and they all serve the same food off the same menu!!!! :angry:

Go to the Hispanic district in your town (if the hispanic pop is big enough to support one) and go the local Tacquerias. Especially the ones with the old women who make the tortillas fresh. Talk about some GOOD authentic Mexican food! You'll have to know a lil' bit of Spanish, not many there speak English.

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We have enough unskilled and uneducated labor as it is. It is not the United State's reponsibility to take in the unskilled people.

Whose responsibility is it? You seem to have this "king of the hill" way of thinking... it's not our fault that they're poor and stupid and unskilled... well, what if it is. Should be allowing every Iraqi that wants to, to come to the U.S to find a better life? I mean.. we did invade their country and abolish their government. Do we now have a moral responsibility to let the Iraqis in?

We have enough unskilled and uneducated labor as it is? Yet from past posts, you seem to be of the opinion that we shouldn't be educating these people either.

You can't yank the rug out from under somebody and then punish them for falling.

I recently went to an Al Franken event, and what he said was very important. His wife's family grew up very poor because her father died young. There were 5 children in the family and they survived entirely on social security survivor benefits until she was able to get a GI loan from the government when her children were all old enough, so that she could go to college. She became a teacher and taught for many years. She repaid back that GI loan and her S.S. many times over not only in the taxes she paid from her income, but also in educating a new generation so they could be future workers.

Her children were all able to go to college, because back then, Pell grants paid up to 90% of college costs for poor students. Pell grants pay at maximum about 1/3 of tuition today. And our gracious Republican congress cut financial aid by $12bn last year to reduce the budget deficit. Oh wait, that deficit reduction was erased the next week by extending tax cuts to the rich.

I'm glad the rich forumers here got some of their hard earned money back so my college tuition was harder to pay for. You deserve it, you poor ravished soul.

And I'm glad we're building a giant, expensive fence to stop the Mexicans from coming in. That will stop illegal immigration... or wait.. maybe it'll just buy votes for Republicans from all the insecure, whacko xenophobes out there (my father included).

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^ I have to agree, limiting immigration to educated people doesn't do anthing, and that is not how the determination process works (effectively). Unless educated = rich, but for most it does not. What you are missing, Moonshield, is that people are going to immigrate to the US whether we want them to or not. Lets stop arguing over this point, and go ahead and document and tax them, no matter what income they make from their initial menial job once they get here. Also, you must kid yourself that your own ancestors were educated skilled labor. Maybe they were by some coincidence of great rarity, but nearly all immigrants to this country have been outcasts, famished, poor or escaping persecution in their own lands. But again, that is not really the point, immigration will happen no matter what we do, building the big fence will do nothing but suck more tax money away from things that could be improving our country truly, and net nothing in the end, except greater dislike for the US, less taxed income and just as many immigrants.

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