Memphis International Airport

[northernbizzkit1]

The Embraer 175 on Northwest subsidiary Compass began flights from Memphis and Detroit this week. I flew the MEM-BOS flight tonight, and it certainly is a beautiful plane! Nice to see the B concourse atrium is very nice...though, it was extremely tight with the evening bank and the narrow corridors.

[jmduke]

Those of you reading the CA this morning probably took notice of Jane Roberts' article on the potential de-hubbing of Memphis should NWA merge with Delta: http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2008/.../departure-tba/

I think we wore this topic out on this thread back in late '06 during the dual bankruptcies, but as long as NWA stays a potential dancing partner for another airline, Memphis' hub status will remain uncertain.

Also uncertain is the effectiveness of the merger. AmWest/USAirways is still a work in progress and parts of that merger have been disastrous; the two pilot groups are still at odds with each other and a job action still looms. NWA and Delta are very different cultures with very different fleet types and integrating these two will be far more difficult than the aforemention merger. Everyone at NWA is unionized while only the Delta pilots are and NWA has historically worse labor relations than Delta. Airline management now looks more closely at employee/equipment/route integration than they used to and aren't nearly as quick to make a move. My gut feeling is some consolidation may happen, but less than the analysts expect and at a far slower pace. Expect to see red tails in Memphis for quite some time.

[sleepy]

Thanks jimduke for posting that. I'd read it myself, and the rumors had been flying (pun) around a little more thickly the past few weeks.

There was an aviation expert quoted towards the end of the article who said something along the lines of what you do, that MEM may not see that much of a flight reduction assuming the DL/NWA talks pan out.

I have some questions which perhaps you can answer---

Can ATL handle the increased traffic if major NWA activity is shifted from MEM to ATL? Would there be any cost savings in making the shift?

Also, is it conceivable that there could be a small shift in the opposite direction due to ATL's congestion? Southern did it 35 yr. ago. DL is a much larger domestic carrier than NWA and, in a sense, while MEM would lose some NWA presence, perhaps it would gain more of a DL presence.

I'm thinking along the lines of the North Central merger with Southern when Memphis acquired the presence of both airlines via Republic and, subsequently, the acquisition of Republic by NWA when Memphis acquired the greater presence of NWA.

Each time, Memphis was the hub for the airline being acquired. See my point?

[jmduke]

If MEM were scrapped as a hub altogether and a merged NWA/Delta wanted to put all that additional traffic through ATL, they would have to do it on bigger aircraft as that airport, while it does have a 3rd parallel runway, just doesn't have much more airspace capacity during pushes. Running more RJs in there won't work, they have to upgrade the mid-size markets to 737s/A319s/A320s to reduce the ATC crush.

If management discovers during due diligence and traffic modeling for the merged airline at pushing an additional 20-25% more pax through ATL isn't feasible, then MEM has a decent chance of staying a hub or at least a focus city.

This new merger is different from the NC/Southern and Republic/NWA mergers as those deals did not involve fortress hubs near MEM; in those cases MEM served a region not served by the acquiring carrier (NWA had almost no Southern presence pre-1986).

I think the presence of 50-60 gate slots (NWA's current presence here), a central location, a customs processing facility, an upgraded terminal and road system, an upcoming new ATC tower, the latest ground radar and GPS local-area enhancement technology, and Cat III autoland capability to most of the runways make MEM an attractive place to maintain a significant passenger airline operation.

[highriser]

If MEM were scrapped as a hub altogether and a merged NWA/Delta wanted to put all that additional traffic through ATL, they would have to do it on bigger aircraft as that airport, while it does have a 3rd parallel runway, just doesn't have much more airspace capacity during pushes. Running more RJs in there won't work, they have to upgrade the mid-size markets to 737s/A319s/A320s to reduce the ATC crush.

If management discovers during due diligence and traffic modeling for the merged airline at pushing an additional 20-25% more pax through ATL isn't feasible, then MEM has a decent chance of staying a hub or at least a focus city.

This new merger is different from the NC/Southern and Republic/NWA mergers as those deals did not involve fortress hubs near MEM; in those cases MEM served a region not served by the acquiring carrier (NWA had almost no Southern presence pre-1986).

I think the presence of 50-60 gate slots (NWA's current presence here), a central location, a customs processing facility, an upgraded terminal and road system, an upcoming new ATC tower, the latest ground radar and GPS local-area enhancement technology, and Cat III autoland capability to most of the runways make MEM an attractive place to maintain a significant passenger airline operation.

I really do not think that you in Memphis have anything to worry about. If anything, a potential merger with Delta could be a great thing for your city. If the passengers are there then they are there, you can't just shut down a hub and throw more passengers through Atlanta. I'm actually in Atlanta as we speak, and was in the airport yesterday. It is elbow to elbow there and they do not have capacity to cut every Memphis flight and just run them through Atlanta.

If anything, that CA artilce showed just how anti Memphis your local newspapaer is. Don't you all call it the Communist Appeal?? Memphis needs a second paper...

Memphis is far enough away from Atlanta that the City of Atlanta has nothing to worry about as far as losing business. Memphis will keep its hub. If Delta does not see an opportunity there, another air line will. Besides, might we see a FedEx Passenger in the near future?? (That's a joke of course.)

[Memphis Love]

I'm hoping for Southwest to come to Memphis, Northwest is far too expensive.

[northernbizzkit1]

I'm hoping for Southwest to come to Memphis, Northwest is far too expensive.

It may be far too expensive, but it is a bit more advantageous to have a legacy hub here than be a Southwest station. Business class, international flights, and more non-stop flights are better for attracting businesses to the city. Also, to echo what others have said on here, I'm certainly not going to fully support a NW/DL merger, but at the same time, don't completely go against it or listen to what other folks from the TN forums may have stated on threads. I have a feeling CVG would close before MEM due to the fact that it will conflict with the DTW and MSP hubs that can easily take more capacity as well as an IND focus city (though I can imagine it closing in a merger). MEM simply has overlap with ATL, which doesn't exactly have space for all of the MEM capacity. Plus, it's still debatable over whether DL will pursue NW or UA.

[sleepy]

I think the presence of 50-60 gate slots (NWA's current presence here), a central location, a customs processing facility, an upgraded terminal and road system, an upcoming new ATC tower, the latest ground radar and GPS local-area enhancement technology, and Cat III autoland capability to most of the runways make MEM an attractive place to maintain a significant passenger airline operation.

I agree that MEM certainly has certain advantages that lend itself to continuing if not as a hub, then certainly as you say, as a "significant passenger airline operation."

Hopefully, I'm not just blinded by some ill-advised boosterism, but historically Memphis has been a hub for one airline or another since the early seventies, and it seems that everyone has been predicting its demise since then.

I'm probably not totally accurate on this, but most likely there are very few cities in the US which have been a hub for thirty-five years--ORD, DFW, DEN, ATL, LAX, and some more perhaps.

[tennreb]

Is it possible that the DOJ may require DL to sell the MEM hub to another airline since NW and DL are the only two airlines that serve many markets in the South? Many more will just have DL and CO. A lot of markets in the South will lose competition if DL absorbs NW, and that may be a problem with the DOJ.

[Rural King]

Is it possible that the DOJ may require DL to sell the MEM hub to another airline since NW and DL are the only two airlines that serve many markets in the South? Many more will just have DL and CO. A lot of markets in the South will lose competition if DL absorbs NW, and that may be a problem with the DOJ.

Thats a good point. There is a potential anti-trust aspect to this that could come into play and prevent a potential merger between DL and NW....on the other hand I can't think of too many high profile mergers the Feds have prevented recently. I say that and they will announce they are nixing the Sirius-XM merger tomorrow. LOL

[Clobber]

Thats a good point. There is a potential anti-trust aspect to this that could come into play and prevent a potential merger between DL and NW....on the other hand I can't think of too many high profile mergers the Feds have prevented recently. I say that and they will announce they are nixing the Sirius-XM merger tomorrow. LOL

But that's b/c they have demanded concessions of the sort tennreb is speculating about, isn't it? The Feds demand that the merged companies divest themselves of certain assets (i.e. Autozone's divestment of certain stores when they merged with [insert name of second-tier competitor here that I forgot]).

[sleepy]

Thats a good point. There is a potential anti-trust aspect to this that could come into play and prevent a potential merger between DL and NW....on the other hand I can't think of too many high profile mergers the Feds have prevented recently. I say that and they will announce they are nixing the Sirius-XM merger tomorrow. LOL

I read earlier in the week that some of the impetus for doing a merger quickly, by the third quarter, is the belief that a potential democratic administration would be more likely to nix it on antitrust grounds.

[111wall]

I'm hoping for Southwest to come to Memphis, Northwest is far too expensive.

An great example of the "Southwest Effect"........When American Airlines closed their hub in Nashville, Southwest Airlines stepped in an significantly increased its service. Today, Southwest offers more nonstop flights to major cities than American ever did at BNA and took over most of the AA Concourse at BNA. Nashville today has much better service and cheaper air fares. Southwest took over most of the AA Concourse and uses BNA has a focus city, with nonstops to most of its entire network. Many people today will drive to Little Rock (far fewer flights) or Nashville to fly Southwest.

Memphis travelers will certainly benefit if NW exits and Southwest enters the market although it is unlikely MEM will have the amount of SW service offered at BNA. Maybe MEM would finally get a nonstop flight to San Diego.

[Rural King]

But that's b/c they have demanded concessions of the sort tennreb is speculating about, isn't it? The Feds demand that the merged companies divest themselves of certain assets (i.e. Autozone's divestment of certain stores when they merged with [insert name of second-tier competitor here that I forgot]).

I'm sure you are correct that the Feds have demanded concessions and set conditions on mergers, but it seems (to me at least) the last two administrations have probably been more inclined towards allowing mergers and allowing considerable consolidation in various markets than past ones.

Hopefully whether they merge or don't Memphis will keep its hub status along with the prestige and benefits that come with it. This is certianly personal bias on my part, but I like the direct flight to Amsterdam and would hope with any luck a new direct international flight or two could be added over the coming years if we do retain the hub.

[northernbizzkit1]

Cohen Hearing on Possible DL/NW Merger

This should be interesting...

[Rural King]

^ Two House Chairs and along another majority member (Cohen) with political stakes in keeping those hubs in their districts will definitely slow down the merger process if they chose to apply the pressure to do so. Lots of political clout happen to be in the right positions to slow and/or kill this potential deal if they can't be satisfied with its outcome for their districts.

[northernbizzkit1]

Starting May 2, Northwest will be adding a long-awaited MEM-San Diego flight. It will be operated on the Embraer 175...it's a REALLY nice plane. Flew on one back here to Boston from MEM.

[111wall]

Starting May 2, Northwest will be adding a long-awaited MEM-San Diego flight. It will be operated on the Embraer 175...it's a REALLY nice plane. Flew on one back here to Boston from MEM.

Finally, a non-stop to San Diego...but, only one non-stop flight per day! I've always found it shocking that NWA did not offer non-stop service from MEM to San Diego..... it makes no sense to fly to San Diego via Minneapolis.

Also lacking is non-stop service to Salt Lake City and Hartford -- all are important destinations. Currently one has to travel to Salt Lake City via Minneapolis, and to Hartford via Indianapolis.

Anyway you look at it, MEM is not a strong hub for Northwest.

Memphis will likely have more service, and lower fares, when NWA vanishes and other carriers like Southwest finally begin some flights to MEM.

[sleepy]

Finally, a non-stop to San Diego...but, only one non-stop flight per day! I've always found it shocking that NWA did not offer non-stop service from MEM to San Diego..... it makes no sense to fly to San Diego via Minneapolis.

Also lacking is non-stop service to Salt Lake City and Hartford -- all are important destinations. Currently one has to travel to Salt Lake City via Minneapolis, and to Hartford via Indianapolis.

Anyway you look at it, MEM is not a strong hub for Northwest.

Memphis will likely have more service, and lower fares, when NWA vanishes and other carriers like Southwest finally begin some flights to MEM.

I thought Delta Connection, perhaps some other airline, had started nonstop Memphis-SLC flights awhile back?

I don't know whether Memphis is a "strong" hub or not. I think that would be defined by how much money it makes for NWA. For all I know--and NWA ain't tellin'--it could make a ton or very little.

I would say that MEM is a right-sized hub for NWA, and the San Diego nonstop reflects that. That's certainly not a route that would make it on O&D alone.

If NWA leaves, Memphis will surely have lower fares, but it will not have imho have anywhere near more service.

[sleepy]

Regarding my above-post about what constitutes a strong hub, and my saying it was how much dough it took in, I just read the article posted by highriser in the Delta-NWA merger thread.

A comment in the article by some airport rep said that Memphis has a greater profit margin than Detroit, and that in any competition between CVG and MEM as to what hub gets closed, MEM would be the clear winner.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2008/...taking-off-not/

[111wall]

I thought Delta Connection, perhaps some other airline, had started nonstop Memphis-SLC flights awhile back?

I don't know whether Memphis is a "strong" hub or not. I think that would be defined by how much money it makes for NWA. For all I know--and NWA ain't tellin'--it could make a ton or very little.

I would say that MEM is a right-sized hub for NWA, and the San Diego nonstop reflects that. That's certainly not a route that would make it on O&D alone.

If NWA leaves, Memphis will surely have lower fares, but it will not have imho have anywhere near more service.

What I meant about MEM not being a 'strong' hub for NWA are the gaps in their service offering from MEM. Major hubs are supposed to have frequent non-stop, or at least 1-stop service, to most all markets, especially by the hub airline. Does not seem to be the case in Memphis. I understand MEM does not have the sufficient origination and destination (O&D) traffic, but is the connecting traffic thru MEM not strong enough to support more flights to more destinations?

I checked again and see that Delta serves MEM-SLC via connections in Atlanta or Cincinnati. No non-stops on any airline at this time.

How is it that Nashville can have more service to all of Southern California than Memphis? BNA has two daily non-stops to San Diego on Southwest, and has more daily non-stops to the Los Angeles area than is available from Memphis. Southwest has 3 daily non-stops from BNA-LAX; American Airlines has a daily non-stop from BNA-LAX; a Southwest flies a daily non-stop from Nashville to Ontario; plus Southwest has two daily non-stops to San Diego.

Hopefully, Southwest will come into the Memphis market and take advantage of some of these gaps. Otherwise, many of will continue to drive to Little Rock or Nashville to take advantage of Southwest's service and lower fares.

[northernbizzkit1]

Finally, a non-stop to San Diego...but, only one non-stop flight per day! I've always found it shocking that NWA did not offer non-stop service from MEM to San Diego..... it makes no sense to fly to San Diego via Minneapolis.

Also lacking is non-stop service to Salt Lake City and Hartford -- all are important destinations. Currently one has to travel to Salt Lake City via Minneapolis, and to Hartford via Indianapolis.

Anyway you look at it, MEM is not a strong hub for Northwest.

Memphis will likely have more service, and lower fares, when NWA vanishes and other carriers like Southwest finally begin some flights to MEM.

I actually just checked it out and the San Diego flight is a returning destination, so it was offered at one point, but due to slot restriction/crowding (both have been mentioned) the flight went away...very odd b/c apparently it was an excellent performer. As far as SLC and Hartford...um, neither is really all that important. MEM actually just lost its SLC flights on Delta, but that was due to a reduction in capacity at the airport from Delta. MEM was one of many cities that were cut. However, with those cuts came additions on MEM-ATL flights (nothing special, but it compensates for the void to the SLC hub). Yeah, Hartford is part of the Boswash megalopolis, is a fairly important business destination, and provides an alternative to flying to NYC...however, not having service to Hartford is not an indicator of MEM being a weak hub. We have ample service on three airlines to the NYC airports, so I don't think MEM has anything to be worried about.

I'm not trying to be rude, but I think you need to reevaluate the MEM hub. It is a very strong hub for Northwest. Articles in the past week show that it has a higher profit margin that the DTW hub, without it Northwest wouldn't have nearly the presence in the South that it currently has, and it serves a purpose as the growing Caribbean hub for NW. Even going into merger talks, Steenland recently announced basing some of the 787 fleet here for MEM-NRT flights. I don't think that would be mentioned for a place where "anyway you look at it, it isn't a strong hub."

I wouldn't be so quick to write off the MEM opps for NW.

[tennreb]

I actually just checked it out and the San Diego flight is a returning destination, so it was offered at one point, but due to slot restriction/crowding (both have been mentioned) the flight went away...very odd b/c apparently it was an excellent performer. As far as SLC and Hartford...um, neither is really all that important. MEM actually just lost its SLC flights on Delta, but that was due to a reduction in capacity at the airport from Delta. MEM was one of many cities that were cut. However, with those cuts came additions on MEM-ATL flights (nothing special, but it compensates for the void to the SLC hub). Yeah, Hartford is part of the Boswash megalopolis, is a fairly important business destination, and provides an alternative to flying to NYC...however, not having service to Hartford is not an indicator of MEM being a weak hub. We have ample service on three airlines to the NYC airports, so I don't think MEM has anything to be worried about.

I'm not trying to be rude, but I think you need to reevaluate the MEM hub. It is a very strong hub for Northwest. Articles in the past week show that it has a higher profit margin that the DTW hub, without it Northwest wouldn't have nearly the presence in the South that it currently has, and it serves a purpose as the growing Caribbean hub for NW. Even going into merger talks, Steenland recently announced basing some of the 787 fleet here for MEM-NRT flights. I don't think that would be mentioned for a place where "anyway you look at it, it isn't a strong hub."

I wouldn't be so quick to write off the MEM opps for NW.

The new Embraer 170 with its 70 seats is the perfect plane for MEM and is supposed to fuel growth of the hub here. I haven't flown on one, but an Airbus pilot told me he likes it just as much as the Airbus, both the cockpit and the cabin.

[northernbizzkit1]

The new Embraer 170 with its 70 seats is the perfect plane for MEM and is supposed to fuel growth of the hub here. I haven't flown on one, but an Airbus pilot told me he likes it just as much as the Airbus, both the cockpit and the cabin.

What's great about it is how it's not your typical RJ...it's very roomy. I flew on it from Memphis to Boston (a 2.5 hour flight), and I was quite comfortable. 6-8 of them will be based in MEM, so it should fuel some growth and add capacity to some routes. It'd be a nice way to expand MEM Caribbean service.

[northernbizzkit1]

Cohen Ready to Defend Hub

It's nice that some leadership in Memphis knows how to handle an issue pertaining to the city (sorry...still reeling from Bass Pro). Cohen makes a good argument against all the naysayers who are for closing the hub and allowing Southwest to come in.