Memphis International Airport

[northernbizzkit1]

I totally agree. Losing direct international service would be the worst long-term affect of losing the hub.

MEM-AMS has been an unquestioned success. The flight has averaged load factors of 80-90% since its inception in 1995, and the recent switch to A330 equipment has only increased its popularity. Also not widely discussed is that about half of the daily passengers on that flight are going to/from Memphis, rather than connecting. Unfortunately, the 150 or so local passengers on the flight wouldn't be enough to keep it going - we still need the connecting passengers that the hub provides.

well, here's what is interesting...i got on the "questionable" airliners.net a few minutes ago, and someone posted that he had heard MEM would remain a hub due to a NW/DL partnership with FX...this may not be a bad thing after all...I'd like to hear his source, tho. I've kinda heard the same, tho...

Rather, I simply heard FX would help keep MEM a hub because of partnerships it has with AirFrance, which is obviously tied to NW/DL through SkyTeam and KLM. I really think that if it remains a hub, you'll see more growth at MEM by it relieving ATL.

[crossroad]

I totally agree. Losing direct international service would be the worst long-term affect of losing the hub.

MEM-AMS has been an unquestioned success. The flight has averaged load factors of 80-90% since its inception in 1995, and the recent switch to A330 equipment has only increased its popularity. Also not widely discussed is that about half of the daily passengers on that flight are going to/from Memphis, rather than connecting. Unfortunately, the 150 or so local passengers on the flight wouldn't be enough to keep it going - we still need the connecting passengers that the hub provides.

The MEM AMS flight is a success story... Is local pax as high as 50%?? I'm surprised.

If NWA promote Elvis/MEM in Japan and if the market was good, why did it stop that international route then?

It seems a consensus that we want a hub city status and welcome more competition and less monopoly.

Southwest is big in Dallas Love Field; it grows so big that it started to threaten City of Dallas that it would move its HDQ somewhere else if the Wright Amendment were not removed. I hope Memphis/MEM play a wise game in those deals.

[northernbizzkit1]

If NWA promote Elvis/MEM in Japan and if the market was good, why did it stop that international route then?

There never was a MEM-NRT non-stop route. Should NW remain at MEM, it has been frequently mentioned that the 787 will be used to beef up MEM international service (largely in the tropics, tho) and a MEM-NRT would be a part of this.

[Lexy]

I make a nice living in the airline industry, for whatever that's worth.

Lexy, I did not make your comments into something they were not. You were cleary dumbfounded that I could think a carrier would fly something as big as a 757 into MEM post-NW. As I tried to demonstrate in my follow-up, it is not only possible but in fact is happening in other mid-sized markets.

I never said MEM would have larger aircraft because of higher O&D...I said it was possible because MEM-to-hub passenger loads would go up. This is absolutely true because, without all the NW hub non-stops, MEM-to-hub flights would be about the only way to get anywhere! If you're flying MEM-JAX, MEM-IND, MEM-AUS or any number of other routes today via a NW nonstop, you will have to fly through ATL, DFW, DTW etc. if/when the NW hub goes away.

Your earlier message attempted to compare BNA's current situation (i.e. no AA 757s) to MEM's situation immediately post-NW hub. My argument was that you cannot use the current BNA situation to refute the possibility of larger-gauged aircraft flying into MEM. The availability of SWA direct flights to multiple destinations certainly diminishes the need for BNA passengers to go through legacy hubs. MEM will not have that benefit immediately after de-hubbing.

Well, I make a living in the music industry, but that doesn't make me an expert in it. Eitherway, you have to have ample loads to support an aircraft of that size, and there is no proof that that is the case, post NWA in MEM. Especially to those markets you suggested. Until you can dig up substantial facts that would suggest 150 or more PAX a flight is travelling to those destinations more than once a day, it is just unrealistic to suggest such a thing. You will also see that those mid-sized markets you spoke about are rather good vacation spots. Spots that would generate a larger than normal O&D.

And trying to read, and comprehend, your train of thought about the needs of BNA passengers is like me trying to figure out why FedEx still does things the hard way sometimes. It's a waste because I haven't got a clue as to why they do what they do. Fact is, American, Delta, US, and even Continental are all doing well here. I can show you the pictures of US 737's and Continentals a/c that are full for exapmle. Now if every one was flying SW from here, the scenarios I just spoke of wouldn't be taking place.

[cdarr]

well, here's what is interesting...i got on the "questionable" airliners.net a few minutes ago, and someone posted that he had heard MEM would remain a hub due to a NW/DL partnership with FX...this may not be a bad thing after all...I'd like to hear his source, tho. I've kinda heard the same, tho...

Rather, I simply heard FX would help keep MEM a hub because of partnerships it has with AirFrance, which is obviously tied to NW/DL through SkyTeam and KLM. I really think that if it remains a hub, you'll see more growth at MEM by it relieving ATL.

Yeah, I'd like to hear his source too. I can't imagine what kind of partnership FX would have with NW/DL or Air France that would motivate them to keep the hub around.

If MEM had any chance of keeping its hub in the event of a merger, it would be (as you said) in relieving ATL. Certainly there would be overall capacity reductions, but I just can't see how that airline could realistically expect to cram all the additional connecting traffic from MEM (and some from CVG if they closed it) through an already slot-constrained Hartsfield. There are financial penalties for running their connecting traffic through a congested hub - especially higher fuel burn due to longer taxi/hold times. Passengers don't like all the crowds, delays and long walking distances inherent in mega-hubs either.

[northernbizzkit1]

And trying to read, and comprehend, your train of thought about the needs of BNA passengers is like me trying to figure out why FedEx still does things the hard way sometimes. It's a waste because I haven't got a clue as to why they do what they do. Fact is, American, Delta, US, and even Continental are all doing well here. I can show you the pictures of US 737's and Continentals a/c that are full for exapmle. Now if every one was flying SW from here, the scenarios I just spoke of wouldn't be taking place.

I don't quite get Continental...I have info stating MEM and BNA both frequently have overbooked Continental flights, but they have yet to upgrade either city to mainline status...I know MEM gets a 737 for the first flight to Houston every now and then, but other than that...it's an RJ shuttle. US Airways is actually getting ready to upgrade to mainline here...they already have mainline on the MEM-PHX flights, and MEM-CLT is giving way to that simply because we outgrew the E145, went to 732s...those were needed, so we went to a E190s...outgrew those...we're going back to 737s in a few months.

[cdarr]

Well, I make a living in the music industry, but that doesn't make me an expert in it.

I guess you and I are dissimilar in that regard.

[Lexy]

I guess you and I are dissimilar in that regard.

Yeah, not all of us are perfect you know. I don't recall saying you were an expert though. Correct me if I am wrong. But by your quoted post above, you certainly sound full of it. LOL!!

NB, I don't understand either. I do know that they are taking delivery on some aircraft soon that should replace some of the RJ routes. One or two, perhaps more, flights from BNA is suppose to go mainline to Houston and Newark, but as of right now nothing is concrete. The same could be said for United here as well. I think it just boils down to a lack of equipment. Which is, coincidently, the reason why SWA hasn't announced any new flights here in the last couple of months.

[jmduke]

I think this is getting contentious because we are trying to foresee the actions of many moving targets and it's next to impossible to do so. Let me weigh in with some possibilities:

1) NWA stays a stand-alone carrier. They will eventually phase out the DC9s and replace that flying with a combination of CRJ900s and ERJ175s (70-85 seats) flown by a combination of Pinnacle, Mesaba, and Compass. Pinnacle is receiving 17 more CRJ200s this year and Mesaba is continuing to fly their SF340s. This means some regional markets will get larger equipment (SF340 to CRJ200, or CRJ200 to CRJ900) and this regional flying will funnel more passengers into the hubs and larger markets can be upgraded from DC9s to Airbuses. If NWA finds they have sufficient business in the Southeast, they can add one or more banks of flights at MEM. With more aircraft and more frequencies, then NWA might add a MEM-CDG flight. MEM is still small potatoes compared with the MSP and DTW hubs, but the potential for growth here is greater.

2) NWA and Delta merge and MEM is downraded to a focus city. With ATL a fortress hub, it would make little sense for the combined airline which will be in a cost-cutting mode to retain a large MEM hub. The new airline will want to reduce capacity and sell un-needed assets, the latter being gate space in MEM for a tidy sum of cash. The $64 question then is would the new airline reduce MEM completely to a regular outstation or to a focus city. Considering the large assets NWA has here, they could downsize from 50+ to 10-15 gates (focus city), make good money in the asset sale, and still run a decent schedule out of here to most of the large markets to which the Mid-South needs connectivity. If MEM were to be a focus city, most markets the new airline were to serve from here would be connected by regional jets with larger aircraft going to MSP, DTW, and ATL.

3) NWA and Delta merge and MEM is downgraded completely to a regular outstation. If MEM were downgraded completely to a regular outstation, there would be enough traffic from MEM connecting through those hubs above to justify 757s or maybe even 767s. For example, United runs 757s between DSM-ORD and Delta runs 767s between JAX-ATL because those airlines have significant market share in those outstations. Considering the large market share the new airline would have in MEM, larger aircraft are possible, even likely.

If MEM were totally downgraded, I'd expect the other airlines to consolidate in the B-concourse and there would probably be few, if any, empty gates in B. There would be good incentive for other carriers such as Midwest, JetBlue, Frontier, and Southwest to be in MEM as the combined NWA-Delta, while larger, probably wouldn't be over 50% market share anymore and wouldn't have pricing power to dissuade market entry of those other airlines. While MEM would lose direct flights to smaller markets, we'd still be connected to most of the largest 30-40 markets within the US and there might even be enough local traffic to support an Air Canada Jazz flight to Toronto.

Other cities such as Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Raleigh, and Austin thrive despite not being hubs. A combination of low-cost carriers and regional jet point-to-point flying ensure those cities are well-connected for business. The ideal situation is NWA staying solo and retaining its hub in MEM, but losing it is not the end of the world.

[cdarr]

Great post, jmduke. Always like to hear your take on this stuff.

Lexy...if you can't carry on an intelligent debate here without disparaging somebody, stay over on the Nashville board. You don't seem able to argue back and forth on an issue without getting personal. Who cares whether you or I am an expert at this stuff? If expert status was required here, few of us would be able to post about anything.

[Lexy]

Lexy...if you can't carry on an intelligent debate here without disparaging somebody, stay over on the Nashville board. You don't seem able to argue back and forth on an issue without getting personal. Who cares whether you or I am an expert at this stuff? If expert status was required here, few of us would be able to post about anything.

Listen buddy, you made the comment about being an "expert" not me. If you honestly wrote that thinking I would let that slip by without a rebuttal, then you are more *fill in the blank* than I thought.

Once again, if you could read, you would see that outside of me having to address you, I have carried on a mature conversation on here. So if you want to keep running off at the mouth about how grand it is to be screwed up the tailend by having a hub, then be my guest. But get used to this already, NWA is an airline that is more than likely going to get bought out by someone soon. And given how small MEM is in their network, it will most likely get dissolved in the merger. The time has come to quit looking at things through your Beale Street Colored Glasses and look a things realistically. Most, if not all outside of you, on here have done that and my hats off to them for it. It's those types of thinkers that will move this airport out of any merger and help position itself to be successfull post-NWA. But i'm not going to sit here and let you be the least bit condescending in your post towards me or other "airports" in the state. That just isn't going to fly on here. Sorry, but that is just the way it is. Now I ask you, is it possible for you, "cdarr", to carry on a conversation without having to throw out biased remarks about other certain locales in the state?

For the record I hope you guys come out of this on top, but common sense to me says it won't happen. I agree with "jmduke" in that not having a hub is not the end of the world. In many, if not most, cases it's a blessing more than it is a curse. At the very least you guys will be downgraded to a Focus City, granted you keep good numbers on certain flights. IND will be closed down and returned to regular outstation designation. Most, if not all, International flights will be gone from MEM, but you still may be able to support a couple of flights on AC Jazz. You will basically look identical to Nashville post-AA.

[northernbizzkit1]

Once again, if you could read, you would see that outside of me having to address you, I have carried on a mature conversation on here. So if you want to keep running off at the mouth about how grand it is to be screwed up the tailend by having a hub, then be my guest. But get used to this already, NWA is an airline that is more than likely going to get bought out by someone soon. And given how small MEM is in their network, it will most likely get dissolved in the merger. The time has come to quit looking at things through your Beale Street Colored Glasses and look a things realistically. Most, if not all outside of you, on here have done that and my hats off to them for it. It's those types of thinkers that will move this airport out of any merger and help position itself to be successfull post-NWA. But i'm not going to sit here and let you be the least bit condescending in your post towards me or other "airports" in the state. That just isn't going to fly on here. Sorry, but that is just the way it is. Now I ask you, is it possible for you, "cdarr", to carry on a conversation without having to throw out biased remarks about other certain locales in the state?

For the record I hope you guys come out of this on top, but common sense to me says it won't happen. I agree with "jmduke" in that not having a hub is not the end of the world. In many, if not most, cases it's a blessing more than it is a curse. At the very least you guys will be downgraded to a Focus City, granted you keep good numbers on certain flights. IND will be closed down and returned to regular outstation designation. Most, if not all, International flights will be gone from MEM, but you still may be able to support a couple of flights on AC Jazz. You will basically look identical to Nashville post-AA.

OK...this is getting rather heated...

A) Northwest is most likely going to be the buyer in the event of a NW/DL merger rather than the other way around.

B) We need to stop with the "expert" spat and then turning it into even more condescending lines a la Beale Street glasses.

C) Nobody on here is being condescending to other airports in the state. That argument is REALLY getting old. The only time that seems to happen is when you wander over, and I'm not trying to start anything, but really...stop saying we are condescending to BNA when you appear to do the same towards MEM.

D) Thanks for your positive concern with MEM at this time!

[Lexy]

NB, fair enough. My apologies if this was carried off course.

[memville]

I was wondering if it was possible in any way that pinnacle might become independent and turn into a low cost airline. They already have the planes, gates, and pilots. I think this could really work if they get some good investors.

[Bears]

Wasn't NWA launching a low-cost carrier COMPASS? I thought Memphis could become a new hub for that. And what about Victory Airlines?

[tennreb]

I was wondering if it was possible in any way that pinnacle might become independent and turn into a low cost airline. They already have the planes, gates, and pilots. I think this could really work if they get some good investors.

Pinnacle doesn't own the planes. They lease them from Northwest.

[jmduke]

Pinnacle will not go independent because 1) Independence Air proved you cannot operate a low-cost carrier with 50-seat aircraft and 2) Pinnacle owns very few assets and does not have the cash flow to finance an aircraft purchase. Pinnacle does not own the aircraft it flies for NWA and it leases just about everything from the building in which it operates in to the ramp equipment. Pinnacle is a pretty strong company when flying for other carriers (NWA's new agreement now allows Pinnacle to become partners with other majors and Pinnacle management is trying to work out deals with other carriers) but it just isn't in a position to go solo, and I don't think Pinnacle management wants to try it anyway after the Independence Air fiasco.

As for Compass, NWA has had a hard time calling back furloughed mainline pilots to fly regional aircraft for lesser pay rates at this new subsidiary. ALPA pilots who once flew mainline aircraft generally don't want to be "downgraded" into regional aircraft for a variety of reasons from work rules to lower pay rates. Compass is proposing captain pay rates for 76-seat RJs not significantly higher than what Pinnacle captains make. NWA may just choose to keep that Compass operating certificate in their back pocket and continue to work with Pinnacle and Mesaba for regional flying.

[cdarr]

Today's Wall Street Journal reports "talks about a possible merger between Delta and Northwest Airlines Corp. have been put on hold, without a framework for a deal and without specific plans for further negotiations, according to people familiar with the thinking of both sides." The same article also says "A combination of Delta and Northwest remains 'a very viable option,' according to one person close to the situation, but isn't likely to be pursued until both airlines emerge from bankruptcy protection this year, if ever."

While a NW/DL merger might still happen, it doesn't appear to be imminent. And once the two carriers emerge from bankruptcy, I think the liklihood of them merging with anybody will decrease significantly...especially if they are able to quickly return to profitability. Consider that the two most recent mergers/acquisitions of large U.S. airlines (American/TWA and America West/US Airways) involved one carrier in bankruptcy.

[northernbizzkit1]

Today's Wall Street Journal reports "talks about a possible merger between Delta and Northwest Airlines Corp. have been put on hold, without a framework for a deal and without specific plans for further negotiations, according to people familiar with the thinking of both sides." The same article also says "A combination of Delta and Northwest remains 'a very viable option,' according to one person close to the situation, but isn't likely to be pursued until both airlines emerge from bankruptcy protection this year, if ever."

While a NW/DL merger might still happen, it doesn't appear to be imminent. And once the two carriers emerge from bankruptcy, I think the liklihood of them merging with anybody will decrease significantly...especially if they are able to quickly return to profitability. Consider that the two most recent mergers/acquisitions of large U.S. airlines (American/TWA and America West/US Airways) involved one carrier in bankruptcy.

Thanks for the news! This is good...gives Memphis a chance to grow into more mainline fitting with NW once the 787 comes into service next year.

[idlewild]

well i guess this is good news.

[tnse]

The Memphis International Airport is the hub of the Memphis economy. As such, the Memphis and Shelby county government should be investing more in it and in the surrounding community to keep this hub growing, adding fuel to the local econimy, and building on the potential of the airport to become an aerotropolis by taking advantage of FedEx. Please see this site on SmartCity. It is an interesting discussion and one we should be having here as we talk about the airport. And we need to encourage those in urban planning and government to take the bold steps needed. Memphis has a wonderful opportunity and a head start. The question is if it will move to do what it takes. Or will Asian cities like Hong Kong or middle eastern cities like Dubai overtake Memphis.

http://smartcitymemphis.blogspot.com/2007/...project_18.html

[northernbizzkit1]

Apparently Continental has upgraded one of the MEM-EWR flights to a 737 because my parents just got back and said they flew on a 737 from here to New York. Interesting. I wonder if it's permanent.

[cdarr]

The Memphis International Airport is the hub of the Memphis economy. As such, the Memphis and Shelby county government should be investing more in it and in the surrounding community to keep this hub growing, adding fuel to the local econimy, and building on the potential of the airport to become an aerotropolis by taking advantage of FedEx. Please see this site on SmartCity. It is an interesting discussion and one we should be having here as we talk about the airport. And we need to encourage those in urban planning and government to take the bold steps needed. Memphis has a wonderful opportunity and a head start. The question is if it will move to do what it takes. Or will Asian cities like Hong Kong or middle eastern cities like Dubai overtake Memphis.

http://smartcitymemphis.blogspot.com/2007/...project_18.html

Yes, interesting discussion. Thanks for bringing it to our attention.

It is probably wise for the community to wait at least a year before making any serious commitments to airport improvements. Until we know the future of the NW hub, we don't really know what to invest in. If NW or a merged airline is willing to maintain its commitment to MEM through a long-term lease renewal, a commitment should be made to fund major enhancements for connecting traffic - for example: widening the corridors of the B Concourse and raising the ceilings; a diagonal extension of the C Concourse to the south (as was done 6-7 years ago with Concourse A); possibly a new satellite terminal and people-mover system.

If, on the other hand, MEM loses its hub status, the majority of terminal-related investments needs to go towards landside improvements that will improve the overall experience of arriving/departing passengers. Structural improvements would need to be of a different nature. Gates would need to be fewer, but larger and more comfortable. A larger waiting area is needed for people meeting arriving passengers (instead of forcing them to congregate at the end of the security area). Perhaps the A and C terminals could be enlarged to provide additional ticketing space.

[Bears]

What do you guys think about providing a grand enterance/exit to MEM? Why don't they build something like those lights on the way to LAX right outside the airport and welcoming people into the aerotropolis? Would anyone support changing the name of the Airport Area to Aerotropolis? I think rebranding the area would be the second step after rezoning.

The question is if it will move to do what it takes. Or will Asian cities like Hong Kong or middle eastern cities like Dubai overtake Memphis.

The UAE has so much money they're running out of things to spend it on If they want to build the infrastructure for a cargo airport that'll overtake or compete with Memphis, they can and probably will. They have a central location for the entire Eastren Hemisphere (Africa, Europe, Asia, Australia) so Memphis should be ok as the hub for the West (North and South America, Western Europe, West Africa, and East Asia).

[crossroad]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6...179&q=fedex

An FAA Radar track sequence of a bank of FedEx aircraft getting into Memphis as thunderstorms pass over the airport.

What music was it? I liked the music.