SkyHouse Charlotte, Publix and 10Tryon Tower in 4th Ward

[Guest]

I'm very familiar with both a downtown Publix (in Greenville, SC) and urban Whole Foods in NYC; I shop at both regularly. I don't think that so many grocery stores uptown can make it.

We shall see... 100k people work downtown, and they'd be more inclined to shop at a Publix with considerable structured parking on North Tryon than a Harris teeter that is a neighborhood market to those living downtown. I think It can survive. It's the third grocery I'd worry about. But it'll be a completely different type of store than Publix and Harris Teeter.

[js4life]

Are you sure? I'm pretty sure Reid's could no longer afford the space, and they actually were losing money towards the end, that's why they had to move to a tiny space in Myers park with that was more of a specialty shop. They have since recovered and are expanding to multiple stores :-).

That space sat for a while until the city was like hey, let's make this a market, since the one at center city green never materializes. They then partnered with CMC and made it happen.

yes. They might not have been able to survive much longer either way but CCCP has always wanted a public market downtown & had that location at the top of their wish list.

[CLTProductions]

We shall see... 100k people work downtown, and they'd be more inclined to shop at a Publix with considerable structured parking on North Tryon than a Harris teeter that is a neighborhood market to those living downtown. I think It can survive. It's the third grocery I'd worry about. But it'll be a completely different type of store than Publix and Harris Teeter.

I agree, I think a larger grocery store, with easy parking will have no problems surviving.

[atlrvr]

^  I disagree....I think the Crescent property at Stonewall/South works well for a full-size grocer, because people go home that general direction from the dense office cluster on South Tryon, plus its near the higher income residential areas.

 

I think a full service grocer at the Skyhouse site would be a disaster that would struggle itself and kill the Harris Teeter. 

 

There is no way if I worked down on South Tryon that I would drive up Tryon or College St during rush hour to park in a deck, and then drive back south down Church of Tryon...that's just frustrating.Tryon

 

There is very little office activity in N Tryon...I mean, beside 525 N Tryon and Transamerica square, I can't imagine any other office workers interested at all in this site....it would be much easier just to stop at a suburban location near their home.

 

The residential density in close proximity to the site isn't enough to support a full-size store alone, at least not with canabalizing 100% of the Teeter customers.

 

I much rather see an smaller urban concept Publix here, and something full size at Crescent's parcel.

[mallguy]

We shall see... 100k people work downtown, and they'd be more inclined to shop at a Publix with considerable structured parking on North Tryon than a Harris teeter that is a neighborhood market to those living downtown. I think It can survive. It's the third grocery I'd worry about. But it'll be a completely different type of store than Publix and Harris Teeter.

The only people who will shop at a grocery store on N. Tryon are people who live at Lake Norman and drive north from uptown and Third/Fourth Ward residents-the same people who already shop at Harris Teeter. There isn't enough business for both.

I don't think that the uptown employment numbers have hit 100k yet.

Edited December 21, 2014 by mallguy

[AuLukey]

I HIGHLY doubt that people shop at that Teeter and then drive to their homes at Lake Norman.  That doesn't even sort of make sense. 

 

There is plenty of residential in uptown (and growing) to sustain a grocer.  I'm not saying uptown needs a full-size grocer on N Tryon, but an urban concept store is more than fitting at the rate uptown is adding residences.  Think of all the suburban neighborhoods in and around Charlotte that have a cluster of four or five full size grocery stores all within a mile or less of one another.  Example: The northern end of Prosperity Church Rd in northeast Charlotte has a 201 Central, Aldi, BiLo, and Harris Teeter within a 1.25 mile span AND Publix is building a store within that same span (that's not including 2 Walmarts and another HT within a couple miles.)  There can be a critical mass of grocery stores that can survive, and Publix doesn't appear to be afraid of squeazing in. 

 

Landing a Publix in uptown is critical for securing more residential down the road.  Even if it wouldn't be an immediate success, having a Publix and another full-size grocery store would be enough draw for residents that the desirability for more residential will only increase.

Edited December 21, 2014 by AuLukey

[15895]

The only people who will shop at a grocery store on N. Tryon are people who live at Lake Norman and drive north from uptown and Third/Fourth Ward residents-the same people who already shop at Harris Teeter. There isn't enough business for both.

I don't think that the uptown employment numbers have hit 100k yet.

We surpassed 100K a year or more ago. I remember reading that in the CCP report

[cltbwimob]

The only people who will shop at a grocery store on N. Tryon are people who live at Lake Norman and drive north from uptown and Third/Fourth Ward residents-the same people who already shop at Harris Teeter. There isn't enough business for both.

I don't think that the uptown employment numbers have hit 100k yet.

People drive from Lake Norman to downtown Charlotte, a 20-30 mile journey one way, to shop at a downtown grocery store when there are four Harris Teeters, one Publix, one Whole Foods, and a Fresh Market in the Lake area????? That makes absolutely zero sense...

 

As far as there being a market for two grocery stores, I believe there is.  You can go multiple places in metro Charlotte and find grocery stores that exist across the street from each other in areas that do not have a population even remotely as large as downtown Charlotte-there is plenty of business for those stores (plus those stores will never have the luxury of having two 20+ story apartment buildings towering over them).  For that matter, I've seen a city much smaller than Charlotte have four grocery stores at a single intersection.  Whether or not the profit margins will be high enough to support such a store may be a completely different matter, but there is certainly a market for it in the sense that there are plenty of people in downtown to patronize two stores.

 

http://www.charlottecentercity.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/2014-Annual-Sm.pdf

 

100k employees work in uptown according to the report contained in the above link along with a plethora of other fast facts.

Edited December 21, 2014 by cltbwimob

[mallguy]

People drive from Lake Norman to downtown Charlotte, a 20-30 mile journey one way, to shop at a downtown grocery store when there are four Harris Teeters, one Publix, one Whole Foods, and a Fresh Market in the Lake area????? That makes absolutely zero sense...

 

As far as there being a market for two grocery stores, I believe there is.  You can go multiple places in metro Charlotte and find grocery stores that exist across the street from each other in areas that do not have a population even remotely as large as downtown Charlotte-there is plenty of business for those stores (plus those stores will never have the luxury of having two 20+ story apartment buildings towering over them).  For that matter, I've seen a city much smaller than Charlotte have four grocery stores at a single intersection.  Whether or not the profit margins will be high enough to support such a store may be a completely different matter, but there is certainly a market for it in the sense that there are plenty of people in downtown to patronize two stores.

My post makes 100% sense; you just completely misread it. My post is part of a discussion about people who work uptown and shop at a grocery store uptown. I think that people who work uptown and live at Lake Norman (and whose end-of-day commutes take them north) would shop at a grocery store on N. Tryon. Of course almost nobody would drive from Lake Norman to uptown to shop at a grocery store uptown.

One thing that the developer needs to consider, though, is that N. Church St. heads south, not north, and a trip north on Tryon would require a left turn into the SkyHouse site. Those facts are both very disadvantageous to a site that would otherwise attract people heading home from work; they need to be able to turn right into the store. People also prefer parking lots rather than parking decks, and so if someone has a choice of a grocery store with a parking lot, accessible via a right turn (in suburbia), versus an uptown store with a left turn and a parking deck, s/he'll choose the first.

At least a few years ago, the Harris Teeter store was unprofitable (as per the Charlotte Business Journal), and that was before Target and Trader Joe's moved into Midtown. I don't think that profits are there to support all of those stores.

Edited December 21, 2014 by mallguy

[CLTProductions]

[dubone]

I think I already mentioned it, but in case I didn't, I heard from a HT manager that the uptown store makes 50% more revenue than a particular suburban full-sized store, meaning 4x the revenue per sf.   There is clearly room in the market for a second competitor.  

 

With the uptown HT being a such a profitable store, competitors are bound to try to chip away at that.   It may be that Publix ends up not wanting to compete at this location, but this site does have a number of very good factors and the market is clearly there.  

 

For consumers, we would get choice and price competition and the selection that comes with different brands and a full size store.   

Harris Teeter clearly won't keep their flush profits for long.  It is clear that a full size Publix could even potentially put HT out of business if they provide the selection, lower prices, and higher quality.   

[cltbwimob]

My post makes 100% sense; you just completely misread it. My post is part of a discussion about people who work uptown and shop at a grocery store uptown. I think that people who work uptown and live at Lake Norman (and whose end-of-day commutes take them north) would shop at a grocery store on N. Tryon. Of course almost nobody would drive from Lake Norman to uptown to shop at a grocery store uptown.

One thing that the developer needs to consider, though, is that N. Church St. heads south, not north, and a trip north on Tryon would require a left turn into the SkyHouse site. Those facts are both very disadvantageous to a site that would otherwise attract people heading home from work; they need to be able to turn right into the store. People also prefer parking lots rather than parking decks, and so if someone has a choice of a grocery store with a parking lot, accessible via a right turn (in suburbia), versus an uptown store with a left turn and a parking deck, s/he'll choose the first.

At least a few years ago, the Harris Teeter store was unprofitable (as per the Charlotte Business Journal), and that was before Target and Trader Joe's moved into Midtown. I don't think that profits are there to support all of those stores.

I guess I did misread your post, although I really could not find much context in the discussion regarding uptown's commuting population. However, I suppose you do know what you are trying to convey, even if the post seemed a little out of the blue to me. Still, I do not think those who commute North to the lake are a big market for Harris Teeter or any other potential grocery store in downtown for that matter. Commuting pattern analysis suggests that less than 6% of uptown's workforce commutes from the lake areas of Mecklenburg and Iredell Counties. As such, if there are shoppers from the Lake areas, it is likely not a significant amount.

One thing for which I think you failed to account is the more densely populated areas of First Ward which would have a grocer convenient to their neighborhood if Publix did indeed place a store at the base of Skyhouse 1&2. If you look at a GIS/demographic overlay, you will see that between the Fourth Ward and First Ward neighborhoods, there are nearly 10,000 people who reside there. Although some people seem to think that the population base in uptown is closer to John Belk, the areas of First and Fourth Ward actually have a significantly larger population. The proposed Publix would be right in between these two neighborhoods. Adding in an estimated 800-1000 residents in the Skyhouse towers will only serve to make the statistics more favorable for a grocery store to locate along North Tryon. Furthermore, the Harris Teeter may have been unprofitable for a time before the Trader Joes and Target were built, but you must also remember, the demographics have changed significantly since. The CBD has a population significantly higher than the population was when those stores opened and those stores have a somewhat different business model, different set of customers, and different geographical base from which they are more likely to draw customers. As such, I do not believe the Midtown stores have oversaturated the downtown grocery market.

Edited December 21, 2014 by cltbwimob

[Niner National]

I live just on the other side of 277 across from First Ward. If a Publix opened, I'd absolutely shop there. I never go to the Harris Teeter uptown because the one on Central is more convenient.

[mallguy]

..Still, I do not think those who commute North to the lake are a big market for Harris Teeter or any other potential grocery store in downtown for that matter. Commuting pattern analysis suggests that less than 6% of uptown's workforce commutes from the lake areas of Mecklenburg and Iredell Counties. As such, if there are shoppers from the Lake areas, it is likely not a significant amount.

...Furthermore, the Harris Teeter may have been unprofitable for a time before the Trader Joes and Target were built, but you must also remember, the demographics have changed significantly since. The CBD has a population significantly higher than the population was when those stores opened and those stores have a somewhat different business model, different set of customers, and different geographical base from which they are more likely to draw customers. As such, I do not believe the Midtown stores have oversaturated the downtown grocery market.

I appreciate your facts (and thoroughness), but I read the outcome differently: that there is not enough profitability available to support both a Harris Teeter and a Publix uptown.

If only 6% of uptown's labor force commutes to Lake Norman, then Publix would also have to thrive off of uptown residents (and uptown office workers who come for lunch). Uptown's residential base has grown since the "Harris Teeter isn't profitable" report came out, but it hasn't doubled to support 2 stores.

Further, Harris Teeter and Publix generally target the same customer base and have similar business models, focusing on service and customer experience rather than rock-bottom prices.

I could see having Harris Teeter and Publix on opposite ends of uptown, and a Publix on S. Church would probably not carve up the same market with Harris Teeter, but 2 similar grocery stores in Fourth Ward just doesn't work. Even one of the developers of the site says that it's tough to make it work: http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/print-edition/2014/10/17/skyhouse-developers-shopping-for-grocery-store-in.html

[Niner National]

I appreciate your facts (and thoroughness), but I read the outcome differently: that there is not enough profitability available to support both a Harris Teeter and a Publix uptown.

If only 6% of uptown's labor force commutes to Lake Norman, then Publix would also have to thrive off of uptown residents (and uptown office workers who come for lunch). Uptown's residential base has grown since the "Harris Teeter isn't profitable" report came out, but it hasn't doubled to support 2 stores.

Further, Harris Teeter and Publix generally target the same customer base and have similar business models, focusing on service and customer experience rather than rock-bottom prices.

I could see having Harris Teeter and Publix on opposite ends of uptown, and a Publix on S. Church would probably not carve up the same market with Harris Teeter, but 2 similar grocery stores in Fourth Ward just doesn't work. Even one of the developers of the site says that it's tough to make it work: http://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/print-edition/2014/10/17/skyhouse-developers-shopping-for-grocery-store-in.html

This guy obviously don't know about the city within a city that Levine will build in the next few years just a couple blocks away.

 

[mallguy]

This guy obviously don't know about the city within a city that Levine will build in the next few years just a couple blocks away.

 

I keep hearing rumors!

I certainly may be totally wrong/off-base here; just calling it like I see it though.

cltbwimob, your posts are very well thought and thorough.

[CLTProductions]

So guys, about that skyhouse building!! Pretty fancy huh!?

Edited December 22, 2014 by Jayvee

[15895]

I have a hard time imagining most of us in LKN shopping at an uptown Publix vs. all of our options here plus Earth Fare & Whole Foods. There are Harris Teeters everywhere.

I think Publix is actually on topic and a huge, huge game changer for uptown .

[cltbwimob]

So guys, about that skyhouse building!! Pretty fancy huh!?

I hope that the two towers are identical twins.  I've been wanting to see a set of identical "twin towers" in downtown for a little while...I don't know why

[go_vertical]

I'm sure they will be. I mean, their only real option would be to have the curved roof on # 2 right? Highly doubt they'll do that. I'm with you though, I want matching towers.

[15895]

I hope that the two towers are identical twins. I've been wanting to see a set of identical "twin towers" in downtown for a little while...I don't know why

Yeah. Makes me wish Citadin was built. I hope Skyhouse II doesn't have the round top personally, I think it's ugly

Edited December 22, 2014 by AirNostrumMAD

[dubone]

This thread is really for this whole development and not just the Skyhouse towers, so the Publix discussion is absolutely on topic.

 

 

 

 

Mallguy, I heard from an insider a few months ago that despite being 1/2 the sf, the revenue was almost double that of his suburban store, which was of typical revenue/profitability.  I am sure there absolutely was a time when it was unprofitable, but that is not the case anymore.   I almost never go when it is not filled with people waiting in lines to pay and all registers open.  

 

I still say that Publix would not be concerned whether the neighborhood can support 2 grocers, just whether they can out compete the HT that is there.    It would not be hard to out-compete because it isn't actually that great of a HT.   The lack of square footage, the lines I just mentioned, the high prices, certain cases of low selection.   While I personally would want them to just compete and both survive, Publix would be preferring to come in and be superior and take the market completely.   

 

 

I do know anecdotally that SOME of the shoppers are suburban uptown workers on their way out, but I think that is not a major factor in the success of the store.   There are also a lot of shoppers that come in from 'food desert' neighborhoods north of uptown so the market for this potential Publix and the current HT are beyond uptown.  2010 census had about 5k residents on the neighborhoods just northeast of town that are not near another grocery store.  

 

The 2010 census had 12400 uptown residents, likely growing to 15000+ soon with announced and under construction projects.   I don't know the retail world to know if that is technically enough for these stores, but even a period of storming and norming competition might go back to one store, but if it is a bigger better store, then that is a good outcome.   

[15895]

 

 

Maybe it could even spur Harry Teeter to build on Sou Tryon. Regardless, a retail spot would be freed up which also would be a net positive

[DMann]

Maybe it could even spur Harry Teeter to build on Sou Tryon. Regardless, a retail spot would be freed up which also would be a net positive

That is what I see happening.  Kroger-Teeter goes to Stonewall with Publix on 9th.  Current Teeter spot becomes a restaurant.

[kermit]

Current Teeter spot becomes a restaurant.

 

or, ironically, Reids.