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Phillydog

NC Population Projections

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This is a slippery slope; this thread IS NOT A "versus" thread but an academic question. Please DO NOT turn this into a "Raleigh is better than Charlotte" or vice versa. Let's have a conversation about whether or not planning practices and trends will affect the population totals of our largest counties.

Have you seen the state's population estimate numbers? Note, especially, Wake County and Mecklenburg County. Population projections are largely based on trends. So, while Wake County is growing at fast clip and the projections say Wake will pass Mecklenburg could Mecklenburg's planning policies actually "derail" those estimates?

Here's the source of the numbers,

http://demog.state.nc.us/

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There are a few things that took me by surprise. One is Brunswick county is really starting to take off. I was also surprised by Jacksonville numbers at present. Also the spill over is not going to Gaston county at all. I wish someone can explain that one. The triangle counties and cities are really exploding. Now I really see what the big fuss is about the TTA. Guilford county is growing well and it wont be to long before that growth goes eastward in to Alamance if it hasn't already. High Point and Harnet county have larger populations than I expected. Is it feasible that the Triangle may grow to be the more populated metro? Finally NC added over 600,000 residents in 5 years. So the state should hit the 9mil mark by say...2008-early 09. Incredible what the little state of NC has fought to become.

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There are a few things that took me by surprise. One is Brunswick county is really starting to take off. I was also surprised by Jacksonville numbers at present. Also the spill over is not going to Gaston county at all. I wish someone can explain that one. The triangle counties and cities are really exploding. Now I really see what the big fuss is about the TTA. Guilford county is growing well and it wont be to long before that growth goes eastward in to Alamance if it hasn't already. High Point and Harnet county have larger populations than I expected. Is it feasible that the Triangle may grow to be the more populated metro? Finally NC added over 600,000 residents in 5 years. So the state should hit the 9mil mark by say...2008-early 09. Incredible what the little state of NC has fought to become.

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Also the spill over is not going to Gaston county at all. I wish someone can explain that one.

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It looks like several counties will be getting quite crowded. Mecklenburg having a density of 2-5K per sq mile and Forsyth, Durham, Wake, and New Hanover Co. having densities of 1-2K per sq mile. Hopefully it will be dense urban developments for Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Durham, Raleigh, and Wilmington.

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I don't know if it is a good or bad thing that Wilmington is growing at a fast clip. On one hand the growth will bring more opportunities to the region but will the citys history be put on the back burner in order to achieve more and more growth. In my mind I would like to see a separate CBD for new towers and HQs. I say leave "old" Wilmingtons CBD the way it is. I know there are some projects trying to get off the ground on the other side of the river.

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I don't know if it is a good or bad thing that Wilmington is growing at a fast clip. On one hand the growth will bring more opportunities to the region but will the citys history be put on the back burner in order to achieve more and more growth. In my mind I would like to see a separate CBD for new towers and HQs. I say leave "old" Wilmingtons CBD the way it is. I know there are some projects trying to get off the ground on the other side of the river.

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^ & ^^ Totally agree that ILM has great potential for a great downtown that both preserves it's awesome old buildings and can accomodate new ones via the open lot blocks. It would really be ahead of our other cities in this regard with the great old architecture and open DT fill that has not been demolished, complimented by a few new DT scrapers. I'm very excited, though they first need to clean up DT a little.

Thank you Phillydog for the link, more comprehensive than any I've seen, though as usual I'm left wondering what the hell an "estimate" is exactly and how they determined these on some factual basis. For example, CLT here is listed as 640K, Charmeck listed it as 650K, CLT CofC 632K, and Wiki at 610K (don't know their source), all 2005 numbers. There are some smaller towns with a scary amount of growth, it's too bad these numbers are not also listed with area figures for 2000 & 2005 so you can see if the growth is annexation related or people added.

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^ & ^^ Totally agree that ILM has great potential for a great downtown that both preserves it's awesome old buildings and can accomodate new ones via the open lot blocks. It would really be ahead of our other cities in this regard with the great old architecture and open DT fill that has not been demolished, complimented by a few new DT scrapers. I'm very excited, though they first need to clean up DT a little.

Thank you Phillydog for the link, more comprehensive than any I've seen, though as usual I'm left wondering what the hell an "estimate" is exactly and how they determined these on some factual basis. For example, CLT here is listed as 640K, Charmeck listed it as 650K, CLT CofC 632K, and Wiki at 610K (don't know their source), all 2005 numbers. There are some smaller towns with a scary amount of growth, it's too bad these numbers are not also listed with area figures for 2000 & 2005 so you can see if the growth is annexation related or people added.

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^No, I get you, if I am using the Wiki site for something I follow the citations to see the source, which upon a recent update is now missing from the CLT pop. figure (and the # has changed as well). At any rate, while some of the NC entries in it are disorganized, they are still more fleshed out than most other city entries, interestingly enough. Someone writing these has a lot of pride obviously. :thumbsup:

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Metro added a thread about "Charlotte 2026" that was in yesterday's Observer. It's an interesting read but the numbers are a little amazing - the city of Charlotte is projected to be over 1 million in 20 years...the Charlotte metro = 4.2 million. I walked away from the article shaking my head over the critics (like the Observer's dedicated transit reporter) over fixed transit. Do they think this project will be easier to build in 20 years? Do they want the kind of automobile-only development that eschewing fixed transit corridors will lead us to? :wacko:

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Metro added a thread about "Charlotte 2026" that was in yesterday's Observer. It's an interesting read but the numbers are a little amazing - the city of Charlotte is projected to be over 1 million in 20 years...the Charlotte metro = 4.2 million. I walked away from the article shaking my head over the critics (like the Observer's dedicated transit reporter) over fixed transit. Do they think this project will be easier to build in 20 years? Do they want the kind of automobile-only development that eschewing fixed transit corridors will lead us to? :wacko:

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Yeah charlotte is expected to be over 1 million but the freakin city limits are pretty much all of mecklenburg county. In 20 years Rock hill will probably be in charlottes city limits....

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I've heard it said on here that Charlotte doesn't have a ton of land left to annex, so the strategy will definitely favor infill over annexation by that point.

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Yeah charlotte is expected to be over 1 million but the freakin city limits are pretty much all of mecklenburg county. In 20 years Rock hill will probably be in charlottes city limits....

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Yeah charlotte is expected to be over 1 million but the freakin city limits are pretty much all of mecklenburg county. In 20 years Rock hill will probably be in charlottes city limits....

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