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2030 Transit Plan


monsoon

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According to the Observer both the North line and the Northeast line are still in the plan to be built. If they take Alternative-A they may consider a delay in the construction of the stations on the NE line mainly in University City. This will allow them to line make up the short fall of funds to build the North line and they can proceed with it's construction. In addition they may drop or delay construction of one or more of the 3 stations on the North Line which are located inside the CLT city limits. (something that I suggested they do earlier).

This approach may be the most palatable for all concerned and it only hurts TOD in University City. (an area that is so far gone that I doubt it will make much difference anyway). It may also improve the chances of federal funding as it will reduce the cost of this line. This would seem to be the prudent course of action. I can see the MTC voting for this option as it gives everyone something in the plan and stops a complete meltdown of the agreement.

I recommend that anyone who reports on these meetings try to be objective and provide all the information.

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From that article

"An expected $70 million shortfall in funding for the proposed North Corridor rail line could lead transportation planners to delay construction of stations in University City. But they said it's too soon to say for sure.."

The North line does not go anywhere near University city. I do admit this could be bad reporting from the Observer. I do think the station Harris and probably Derita are unnecessary and should be eliminated since the city does not seem to think that a transit corridor up N. Graham is desired. (though it makes more sense than the one up N. Tryon)

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I have heard the area along Harris, even over as far as Northlake refered to as the "University area" before. In any case this article was about the North Line and the possibility of Station cuts on that line, not about cutting stations on the Northeast line. I stand by what I reported happening at the MTC meeting.

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I have heard the area along Harris, even over as far as Northlake refered to as the "University area" before. In any case this article was about the North Line and the possibility of Station cuts on that line, not about cutting stations on the Northeast line. I stand by what I reported happening at the MTC meeting.
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CATS has dithered for quite a while about the number of stations to put on the NE line. If anything, it sounds like they may be backtracking, and removing a station that was added during the planning phase.

The Harris station strikes me as far enough out on the N line that it could be well used as a Park and Ride.

The Derita station has always been questionable. It's not really near any of the employers of *true* University City, so disembarkers would need to rise a shuttle bus. And I don't think the area has the density or demographics to attract many boarders to uptown.

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I see almost the entire MTC voting to have the North line the next one completed. This line has hit hurdle after hurdle in regards to funding and both the MTC and CATS have shown commitment in trying to overcome each of those hurdles. No one has given up on the North Line.

I would not be surprised to see Huntersville and Cornelious float Plan A-2 for approval at next weeks MTC meeting, but I predict that if they bring it up for a vote it will get voted down, and then the MTC will vote for Plan A-1.

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To be honest, I don't think anybody is 100% sure of what criteria FTA uses for doling out New Starts money.

They say it's all by the numbers.

But remember, the FTA is in Washington, and in Washington there's always room for political favors.

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That is true as I always felt that McCroy cashed in some chips with the national GOP to get the South LRT approved. They owed him for being one of Bush's attack dogs during the 2004 campaign. He did mention the political situation in regards to the election several times during the last MTC meeting on the subject.

Aside from that, one wonders what the complete and absolute sundering of the GOP and presumably their anti-transit policies will have on these plans.

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Washington Politics was talked about at the MTC meeting yesterday as well. The law that funds FTA projects doesn't expire till 2009. Also the FTA is run by the Bush Administration, which will be around till early 2009 as well. The Bush Administration has decided to prioritize projects mainly on Cost Effectiveness even though they are supposed to also take into other considerations such as Land Use and Economic Development. They felt that the only way the Democratic majority will affect transit projects in the near future is through Congressional Earmarks.

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Its fascinating, interesting and very disappointing that at this late date that it has come out that CATS ridership numbers for the North commuter line are based on the insane assumption that I-77 has been expanded to 6 lanes all the way to Mooresville. As we already know, the 6 lanes end in the middle or no where just North of Harris Blvd, 16 miles from Mooresville, and the highway is a congested between there an Mooresville today. I believe that commuters would do anything to avoid this trip including riding the train. The NCDOT does not have a schedule for expanding this highway nor is any funding allotted for it.

This tells me that either the officials at CATS are completely incompetent (not hard to believe) or there is a concerted effort to stack the deck against the North line.

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I don't think that ist new information, or at least I've known about that for quite a while.

My understanding is that it is required by the Feds. I believe it is the same unfair rule that required TTA to count a widened I-40 in their ridership projects, although Orulz will need to verify that. But that is at least how I remember it.

EDIT: Actually, I looked back through the North line thread, as I thought I had mentioned in an older post, but actually you mentioned it here:

http://www.urbanplanet.org/forums/index.ph...st&p=427870

Their ridership models aside from not taking gasoline prices into account, also assume that I-77 is 4 laned all the way to Statesville and there is no traffic congestion. LOL.
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I did mention it then as they said way back then they said they were going to adjust the model to take those items into account. Why have a model for an expanded I-77 when there is no hope of it happening. It did not happen.

What has come out is that they have not done this because CATS planner David McDonald said he didn't do it because he didn't think it would add many riders. What planet is he living on anyway. If you were faced with an hour plus bumper to bumper drive into Charlotte or a 30 minute train ride which would you take? This is a decision made by a single person not having anything to do with the FTA. On top of that David McDonald is basing his ridership models using predictions for growth coming from the Charlotte Planning Commission which has consistently under predicted growth in North Mecklenburg for the last 20 years. One look at the overburdened schools in the Lake Norman area is a testimate to that since CMS uses the same figures for their planning.

It's an example of the botched planning process that CATS has been using and mostly likely the reason there are so many issues on the South LRT.

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I would like to see the North line get built as much as the next person but if the North Line wants any chance of getting federal funds, then the modeling they use has to be approved by the FTA, and currently the modeling used for the North line is approved by the FTA.

At the MTC meeting earlier this week David McDonald stated that they used population projections provided by CDOT, as well as the planners from Huntersville, Cornelious, Davidson, and Mooresville.

CATS certainly could use modeling that would not show any improvements to I-77 for the next 20 years....the TTA did this with their model concerning I-40 in the Triangle, and the FTA never approved their model, and well we all know what happened there.

I would hate to see CATS use numbers that would please the local residents to only later be turned down by the FTA. That being said it is common knowledge that the models the FTA requires are not good at showing ridership projections for Commuter Rail. That is why they came up with the Small Starts program, to allow projects that normally would not get funded under New Starts.

All of this modeling discussion might be a moot point anyways as it now appears that the North Line won't get any federal money except for Congressional Earmarks, or if the Hydrogen Train ever takes off...could be used as a demonstration program for that technology.

I feel confident that with the commitment of the MTC and CATS that something will be built for the North Line sooner rather than later. What exactly will get built we will have to stay tuned to find out.

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The South LRT would have failed under the same rules that where changed that failed the TTA system. They had already resolved the issues to the FTAs satisfaction concerning the delays on I-40.

No matter how it is spun, it is unrealistic to model a ridership on a highway project that doesn't exist. It's incompetance at the best and underhanded at the worst. CATS has not done much to inspire much confidence.

And by the way, the mayor of Cornelius is raising the same issues that I have made here.

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