Election Prediction Game

[Captain Worley]

There was an interesting editorial on how the media is trying to winnow down the field for the primaries to two candidate for each party, like Obama vs Clinton and McCain vs Romney. The gist of the article was that such an approach hurts other candidates, and I can kinda see the point. What I'm undecided on is whether or not there is some agenda to this, or if they do it because it makes better copy (I think this is the real reason).

The point is, both Edwards and Guiliani, among others, are being hurt by this.

Will this have any effect on the upcoming primaries?

Oops! Forgot the link:

http://www.thestate.com/mld/state/news/opinion/16423369.htm

[rnc]

as far as realistic chance for the democrats, Edwards is the best option. John Edwards is just more electible than Hillary Clinton, Obama and the rest of the pack. Hes not an unknown anymore. The mid western states and the south would never vote for Hillary and democrats need to pick up some of those states. John Edwards would get traditionally republican states such as Oklahoma, Montanta and New Mexico, especially if Edwards is running against Gulliani who is seen as a big city slicker. My gut feeling is that America still has a problem with a woman or a minority being president. of course I think that is very wrong but its the facts weither we like it or not. its a "white man's" job. John Edwards is the best candidate for the democrats and Rudolph Gulliani is the best candidate for Republicans.

[cinco]

^ interesting... i can kinda see that. (referring to cap. worleys last post)

i think a good dem ticket would be john edwards and wesley clark. i think general clark, with his military background and southern roots could help the ticket pick up a state or two... especially against a guiliani lead ticket.

as a southerner, i long for the day when the south will snap out of it's republican held hypnosis... of course, if it doesn't happen after king bush II... i fear it may never happen. unless the republicans decide to run a northener, with a strange last name, whose been married 3 times. of course, 1 of those was to his 2nd cousin and to some in the south - that could be a plus.

[cinco]

we are still a ways away from the election and anything can happen... but, i have a theory. obama and hillary will cancel each other out and guess who should appear in the smoke.... albert gore.

think about it - he could potentially be coming off a high in which he pockets an oscar and possible noble peace prize. i'm tellin' you... stranger things have happened.

[Pillsbury]

^I didn't think he got re-elected in 2004.

No it isn't a smear tactic. I don'tlike trial lawyers. It is my opinion. I don;''t dislike lawyers as a group, but don't care much for that subset.

[snoogit]

An Edwards ticket with Obama as his running mate would be solid.

[Spartan]

I think that at this point in the game its way too early to say anything for certain. I don't think that Edwards would make a good president. VP maybe... but even thats a stretch. The democrats have the overcelebrated clinton/obama factor to deal with too, so people like Edwards will have a long uphill battle. The republicans don't vany any real strong candidates, at least none that the media have latched onto, which may be a good thing in the long run from the republican perspective.

[cityboi]

realistically Edwards has the best odds despite all the publicity on Hillary and Obama. John Edwards is obviously the best white male candidate thats running for the democrats. I wish race and gender didnt play a role in politics but you know this country is not going to elect a woman or black president, at least not anytime soon. Suddenly John Edwards stands out once people realize the odds of a woman or an African-American becoming president in 2008. Like I said, I wish that wasnt a factor because I believe a person of any gender or race can be qualified for president. But its a question of electibility and people have this perception of how our president should look. yea its wrong but thats just the way it is. I think in about 1 or 2 more generations things will dramatically change though. But John Edwards is already position to secure the nomination with his leads in Iowa, New Mexico and South Carolina which are the early caucus states.

[JDC]

Speaking of elections, someone on the other side of the fence just committed election suicide: McCain: Roe V. Wade Should Be Overturned (Washington Post)

[rnc]

Why not the other way around? Although I hate hate hate the idea that a northern candidate must have a southern VP.

[JDC]

I'd support that ticket as well. I'm just afraid that Obama's lack of experience will cripple his campaign eventually. I realize that Edwards isn't exactly a seasoned old veteran, but he has been through this presidential election process once already.

[Gusterfell]

Speaking of elections, someone on the other side of the fence just committed election suicide: McCain: Roe V. Wade Should Be Overturned (Washington Post)

[Spartan]

The hard-line conservatives didnt like McCain in 2000, which is why he didn't win the primary. He isn't electable because he's too controversial. Making grandiose statements like the one from a few posts up is a perfect example of that. He is no longer a moderate even though he tries to be... and if anyone needs a moderate candidate, its the Republican Party.

[kayman]

realistically Edwards has the best odds despite all the publicity on Hillary and Obama. John Edwards is obviously the best white male candidate thats running for the democrats. I wish race and gender didnt play a role in politics but you know this country is not going to elect a woman or black president, at least not anytime soon. Suddenly John Edwards stands out once people realize the odds of a woman or an African-American becoming president in 2008. Like I said, I wish that wasnt a factor because I believe a person of any gender or race can be qualified for president. But its a question of electibility and people have this perception of how our president should look. yea its wrong but thats just the way it is. I think in about 1 or 2 more generations things will dramatically change though. But John Edwards is already position to secure the nomination with his leads in Iowa, New Mexico and South Carolina which are the early caucus states.

[kayman]

Speaking of elections, someone on the other side of the fence just committed election suicide: McCain: Roe V. Wade Should Be Overturned (Washington Post)

[cityboi]

You and I are >>>here<<< on this whole topic. Unfortunately, race and gender is what is going to hurt both Obama and Clinton's campaigns. Outside of the Northeast, California, and urban areas in the South (like Atlanta, Miami, New Orleans, ect.) they don't stand a real chance because there are still those diehard individuals that don't believe a woman should lead due to what they heard in church or still have racial bias that are hidden behind the curtain of the voting booth. That's why I said John Edwards will be likely be the front runner by this time next year.

[kayman]

you are correct, there is a perception that woman cant lead even though there are women presidents around the world. Those sterotypes will hurt Hillary especially in a time of war. With Obama, there are those who think that only white men are intelligent enough and can handle the job. They believe that Obama may only really focus on African-American issue instead of issues that affect all of America. To be painfully honest, there are people out there that arrogantly think America is a white man's world and it should be run by a white man. Differences scare people for some reason. its sad that this mentality still exist, epecially since less sophisticated countries have gone beyond that. But every new generation are becoming more accepting of people that are culturally and physically different from them. Thats why I said in a few more generations we will have minority preisdents and women presidents.

[Charlotteman]

Can ya'll believe McCain's pandering in Spartanburg??????

John Kerry was called a flip-flopper, but it is McCain who truly deserves to be referred to as that. McCain is but a political hack. Someone who shamelessly cozies up to phoney-baloney factions by promising to implement their goofball agendas.......

If the Reps nominate him, they will truly have an uphill struggle. His only true "base" are independents. Reagan appealed to lots of independents and won both times he ran for president. But alas, John McCain is no Ronald Reagan.

I feel the Reps are much better off with Guiliani as their nominee.

[michaelskis]

I don't think that Hillary will get it because she is never consistent on her issues and only does what the polls say, and has done less than Obama as a senator, in twice as long. Her candidacy will be seen down the road as a combination of a joke and a spoof. She also reminds me of a little brat who has a fit because she does not get her way.

I don't think that Obama would win because people do not know enough about what he truly stands for. I think down the road it will be seen as a reason to wait to get some experience on a national level before jumping in. I also think that he will be a major contender for future elections, and I would say it is safe to say that he will someday be president... just not right now.

I think that Edwards would have a shot, but too many people feel that he does not have the same respect caliber as other presidents had, and would not be a great leader. Besides, he can't raise nearly as much money as the other candidates.

I don't think McCain would get it because, well, it's McCain! He has turned his back on is party more than a few times and sways like a pendulum between conservative and centrist. He might end up being the VP.

I think that Gingrich would have had a shot if he jumped in the race now, but he won't decide until later on. While two have had less campaigning time and won, I don't think that he has the same charisma as Regan or JFK. He might end up being the VP.

Brownback does not have a chance in hell for any state in the north.

That leaves Rudy... If he can get the Republican nomination, he might as well move in. He has said that what worked in NYC, might not work in the rest of the county. He thinks that people are people and should be respected as such, but still should be held accountable for their own actions. Overall, I think that this is a candidate who will make a lot of people mad because he might not be willing to do the popular thing, but he is willing do to the right thing.

[Gusterfell]

I don't know about that. 95% of Americans know nothing about Rudy except that he was able to keep his composure for the cameras on 9/11. He has plenty of skeletons in his closet, with the result that New Yorkers vastly prefer a certain senator of theirs over their former mayor (53% vs. 32%). In the primaries, the Republican right will have a field day exposing his troubled personal life, along with his support for legal abortion and gay rights. If that somehow doesn't keep him from getting the nomination, the Democrats can be expected to expose the fact that Rudy's 'leadership' actually made 9/11 worse, among many other issues with the competency and fairness of his mayoral administration. Once the voting public gets the full story of 'America's mayor,' he won't be a safe candidate at all. In fact, polls show that if a Hillary/Rudy election were held today, Hillary would (barely) win. This despite the fact that America already knows her baggage, while most have yet to learn about his.

[michaelskis]

I don't know about that. 95% of Americans know nothing about Rudy except that he was able to keep his composure for the cameras on 9/11. He has plenty of skeletons in his closet, with the result that New Yorkers vastly prefer a certain senator of theirs over their former mayor (53% vs. 32%). In the primaries, the Republican right will have a field day exposing his troubled personal life, along with his support for legal abortion and gay rights. If that somehow doesn't keep him from getting the nomination, the Democrats can be expected to expose the fact that Rudy's 'leadership' actually made 9/11 worse, among many other issues with the competency and fairness of his mayoral administration. Once the voting public gets the full story of 'America's mayor,' he won't be a safe candidate at all. In fact, polls show that if a Hillary/Rudy election were held today, Hillary would (barely) win. This despite the fact that America already knows her baggage, while most have yet to learn about his.

[Charlotteman]

I agree Gullianni is a leader. And I also agree he was a hero on 9/11.

He appears to totally outclass his Republican opponents.

[monsoon]

I think the election is going to boil down to what people think of Iraq in 2008. Vietnam destroyed the Democratic party in 1968 and I think Iraq is going to finishing destroying the GOP in 2008. The only ones that don't care about this are the religious nuts, and that lot will choose the GOP candidate for 2008. Except for guilani, every other GOP candidate has been doing everything they can to crawl into Pat Robertson and Jerry Fallwell's bed.

I also think the Hillary is going to continue to have problems with her decisions leading up to this war and her failures to address them. She ought to just stand up and say that she voted that way because she thought it was the politically popular thing to do, she is sorry and lets move on. Edwards needs to do this too.

[cityboi]

Clinton and Obama are eventually going to knock each other out as they attack one another and Edwards will stand up as the only viable candidate for the democrats. I think the early publicity is going to hurt Clinton and Obama in the long run. Howard Dean was in the spotlight as the front runner before the 2004 election and look what happened.

[Charlotteman]

I agree cityboi. And I think Edwards already has an edge. When he speaks, it's real speech, no garbage, no blathering, just plain talk.

In my humble opinion, if Edwards manages to win the Iowa and S.C. primaries, he will be mighty hard to beat. I predict Hillary will sink pretty early on. Democratic voters (hopefully) will realize nominating her will lead to defeat.