NC: No Longer a Southern State?

[MR-2]

I contend that there is more than one type of social conservatism.

Religions conservatism, and secular conservatism. Secular conservatism would deal with things like national security, censorship, the war on drugs, and so forth. These break down more, but one thing I've noticed is that NC tends to be more of the latter, when it is conservative, than the former. The large military presence probably has something to do with that. This is a bit different than the other southern states, I think. I also think the state is becoming more polarized. There seems to be a growing amount of social liberalism, particularly in the major city centers. This is being offset by the continual growth of the military sector.

[monsoon]

You say 'conservative' as if it were a bad thing.

[nowensone]

"Pretty conservative" is relative. North Carolina may be right of center for the entire nation, but it has a long history of being progressive for the South. Whether you are talking about civil rights, women's rights, electing blacks to office, or even gay rights, North Carolina is along the most liberal of all southern states. For example, North Carolina, Maryland, and West Virginia are the southern states without an anti-gay marriage clause in their state constitutions. Florida is working on it and is the only state to ban gay people from adopting. NC is one of the few southern states to move toward restricting abortion. In fact, Survey USA showed that opposition to abortion in NC was about at the same level as PA :

http://www.surveyusa.com/50State2005/50Sta...byProChoice.htm

Legendary political scientist V.O Key's thesis about North Carolina in his legendary 1949 book "Southern Politics," argued the state was a "progressive plutocracy" -- tolerant on social issues like race relations, and conservative and subservient to business interests when it came to economics.

Earlier this year, the News and Observer put it like this:

Most North Carolinians go to church and believe in the Bible, polls show. But North Carolina has always been a more nuanced state on social issues than many imagine. Take abortion.

In 1968, North Carolina became the second state to legalize abortions. Until the mid-'90s, North Carolina was the only state in the South -- and one of just 13 in the country -- to fund abortions for poor women.

Even Helms has acknowledged that his strong anti-abortion stance was the position that he had the most difficulty explaining to his constituents.

North Carolina has some history of defying conventional wisdom on social issues.

During the great evolution controversy in the 1920s, there was a mass movement in churches to outlaw the teaching of Charles Darwin's theory of evolution in public schools. In 1924, North Carolina Gov. Cameron Morrison banned a biology textbook that discussed evolution from public high schools.

Evolution opponents were victorious in Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee, site of the famous Scopes trial. But anti-evolution bills died in the North Carolina legislature after strong lobbying by university officials, newspapers and others.

One of the leading opponents was state Rep. Sam Ervin Jr., a future U.S. senator and a conservative Democrat who delivered in 1925 one of the more memorable speeches in legislative history. Ervin used both humor and reason to undercut the anti-evolution bill, calling it "an attempt to limit freedom of speech."

[monsoon]

The 2004 election had as much to do with people just not liking Kerry. Limousine liberals like Kerry are not popular in the South, especially after they proclaim they don't need the South to win. This wasn't a conservative or liberal decision. It was a GW Bush vs Kerry thing and I think people had to hold their nose when voting for either one. (except for the extremists) I know I almost sat out the 2004 election because Kerry was such an undesirable candidate, but I finally went down there and stood in the line for an hour to push the button for the idiot.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Remember, CLinton came without a few thousand votes of winning NC in 1992. Also, I think outside of MD and Florida, North Carolina has the most cities in towns with gay rights policies protecting gay employees than any other state. Also, NC had a gay city councilman (Chapel Hill) way back in the mid 80's, before many Northern states did.

[triadcat]

The 2004 election had as much to do with people just not liking Kerry. Limousine liberals like Kerry are not popular in the South, especially after they proclaim they don't need the South to win. This wasn't a conservative or liberal decision. It was a GW Bush vs Kerry thing and I think people had to hold their nose when voting for either one. (except for the extremists) I know I almost sat out the 2004 election because Kerry was such an undesirable candidate, but I finally went down there and stood in the line for an hour to push the button for the idiot.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Lieberman was for Bush's war, but the people of CT realized he was otherwise pretty liberal. Lieberman is a pro-gay, pro-choice Democrat. If he would have been a social conservative, he would have loss. Darn, Lincoln Chafee couldn't save his seat, and he is a bona fide social liberal, but evidently not liberal enough for Rhode Island.

[RaleighLover]

NC is the South and as a North Carolinian I am damn proud to call the South home.

[serapis]

NC is the South and as a North Carolinian I am damn proud to call the South home.

[CSP]

NC is the South and as a North Carolinian I am damn proud to call the South home.

[redjeep77]

NC is the South and as a North Carolinian I am damn proud to call the South home.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

North Carolina is also a Mid-Atlantic state, and as a North Carolinian, I can say that I am proud to call NC home. I am a Mid-Atlanticer, or whatever.

[davidals]

I don't know what it is - I've noticed (either on simultaneous threads here or news articles appearing elsewhere during the past week) that several other places: Louisville (South or not?), Virginia (In the wake of the senate race, Southern or not?), Missouri (Was it ever Southern?), and the Midwest (Just like the South: Where does it start, and where does it stop?). It never occurred to me that many places in the country - states, cities and regions are all undergoing some great shifts in their identities...

[nowensone]

Just now noticed the by-line for this thread , so to address it, I think we will be considered a mid Atlantic state [culturally] by the media when we become a real swing state or pass on into the blue completely. This wouldn't necessarily be a good/meaningful reason, or an accurate one, but will probably be what does it, as at that point we will be identified as having more of a connection with the Northeast due to politics, and possibly from citizens, and so warranting a "Mid Atlantic" distinction.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Speaking of which, North Carolina Democrats not only significantly increased their dominance of both houses of the state legislature, BUT actually did this while the Democratic Speaker of the House was caught in a bevy of scandals. Apparently, he has been re-elected too despite his public ethical lapses. The defeat of social conservative James Capps in the NC House is a huge victory for social progressives. AND, North Carolina will be sending a majority Democratic congressional delegation to Washington, DC in January.

In stark contrast to North Carolina and the nation, South Carolina voters increased Republican dominance of that state.

[nowensone]

^ Just as with the last pres. election in which NC voted for Bush more so because of a weak Dem candidate, the same can be said of the recent mid term in which it was more so because of the GOP weaknesses. I do think there is a real, overall gain here, but I don't think we'll really know until 2008, and only then if both candidates are somewhat equal in terms of desirability.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Yeah, we won't know if there has been a real realignment in NC when it comes to federal elections until at least 2008, but the Democratic dominance of NC state politics is pretty well established already.

[nowensone]

You know, that is something I find confusing, are there that many people who vote both Democratic and Republican, or are different people voting at local and national elections, staying home for one while getting out there for the other? Subjectively I can say it seems most people I know vote party lines, even if they give lip service to voting either way, with even the IND's voting Democratic.

[davidals]

Just now noticed the by-line for this thread , so to address it, I think we will be considered a mid Atlantic state [culturally] by the media when we become a real swing state or pass on into the blue completely. This wouldn't necessarily be a good/meaningful reason, or an accurate one, but will probably be what does it, as at that point we will be identified as having more of a connection with the Northeast due to politics, and possibly from citizens, and so warranting a "Mid Atlantic" distinction.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Notice that in 2004, Mecklenburg County went for Kerry, whereas in 2000 they voted for Bush. I think they voted for Dole in 1996, but am not absolutely certain. This represents the gradual Northern Virginanization of Mecklenburg County. As time goes on, I think you will see the inner suburban Charlotte area counties become bluer, although it will take time. Mecklenburg plus Durham, Orange, and eventually Wake could eventually make NC a purple state, although it will take time for the population of these counties to outweigh the rest of the state.

[DCMetroRaleigh]

A poster named Thisguy from another forum researched NC's 2004 presidential vote:

North Carolina went 56% Bush/44% Kerry, so overall more conservative of a state at that time. For comparison I pulled up some other states which I thought would be more conservative... South Carolina was 58/41 Bush, Alabama 63/37 Bush, Tennessee 57/43 Bush, Georgia 58/41. So NC is the "least' conservative in the local southern states. (exluding Virginia) Virginia was 54/46 Bush so not far off really.

Now for the county data... there were actually a lot of counties Kerry won, or it was a split... I consider a split anything 50/50, 51/49, 52/48, 53/47.

The MOST liberal (or at least MOST democratic) counties were:

Anson 59% Kerry

Bertie 62% Kerry

Durham 68% Kerry (college town no surprise)

Edgecombe 61% Kerry

Halifax 59% Kerry

Hertford 63% Kerry

Northampton 64% Kerry

Orange 67% Kerry

Warren 65% Kerry

Without knowing much about NC, most of these are small counties, with Halifax and Edgecombe (20K voters each) being decent sized and Orange being the 2nd biggest (60K voters) and Durham the largest (110K voters total)

There are another 25 counties that fell into the 50/50 range, I will list the biggest (I don't know where these are yet or what cities are inside most of them but will look at that next just since I am curious i.e. are any of them coastal etc)

Buncombe 50/49% Bush (105K voters)

Cumberland 52/48% Bush (95K voters)

Forsyth 54/46% Bush (140K voters)

Guilford 50/49% Kerry (200K voters)

Mecklenburg (where Charlotte is) 52/48% Kerry (320K voters)

Wake (Raleigh) 51/49% Bush (350K voters)

Where Bush won, and won big was a lot of the 40-60K size (voting size, not size of the counties) counties where he won 65/35% or 70/30% (I assume these are more 'rural areas' or where small/mid sized towns are)

Examples: Almance, Brunswick, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Catawba, Craven, Davidson, Gaston, Henderson, Iredell, Johnston, Randolph, Rockingham, Rowan, Union, Wayne

[DCMetroRaleigh]

2000

Gore/Lieberman (Dem.) 1,257,692 (43.20)

Bush/Cheney (Rep.) 1,631,163 (56.03)

Browne/Olivier (Lib.) 12,307 (0.42)

Buchanan/Foster (Ref.) 8,874 (0.30)

McReynolds/Hollis 1,226 (0.04)

Total........2,911,262

1996

Dole (Rep.)...........1,225,938 (48.73)

Clinton (Dem.).......1,107,849 (44.04)

Perot (Ref.)..............168,059 (6.68)

Others (2+w/ins)........13,961 (0.55)

Total........2,515,807

1992

Bush (Rep.)..........1,134,661 (43.34)

Clinton (Dem.).......1,114,042 (42.65)

Perot (Unaff.)...........357,864 (13.70)

Others (Marrou+w/ins).5,283 (0.21)

Total........2,611,850

[DCMetroRaleigh]

Mecklenburg County (Charlotte city and its exurban and suburban environs): 2004: Kerry 51.85%, Bush 47.85, 2000: Gore 48.2%, Bush 51.0% (again, this is a very solid gain for Kerry at Bush's expense)

Wake County (Raleigh city and some suburbs, typically the most conservative part of the "research triangle area): 2004: Kerry 48.35%, Bush 51.26%, 2000: Gore 46.0%, Bush 53.1% (another decent gain for Kerry on Gore's 2000 total, if not as big as in Charlotte - but definitely worth noting nonetheless)

Durham County (Durham city and some suburbs): 2004: Kerry 67.90%, Bush 31.75%, 2000: Gore 63.7%, Bush 35.6% (yet another substantial gain for Kerry on Gore's 2000 totals in a "red state" city)

Orange County (Chapel Hill - home of UNC's flag ship campus - and environs): 2004: Kerry 67.03%, Bush 32.46%, 2000: Gore 62.7%, Bush 36.3%

[nowensone]

Buncombe 50/49% Bush (105K voters)

Cumberland 52/48% Bush (95K voters)

Forsyth 54/46% Bush (140K voters)

Guilford 50/49% Kerry (200K voters)

Mecklenburg (where Charlotte is) 52/48% Kerry (320K voters)

Wake (Raleigh) 51/49% Bush (350K voters)

[krazeeboi]

In stark contrast to North Carolina and the nation, South Carolina voters increased Republican dominance of that state.