Will NWA ever be largest metro in state?

[tim2462]

Yes, but OKC is the capitol and Tulsa is the other big city in Oklahoma. OKC's metro is around 1,053,000 and Tulsa's is about 793,000. LR's is about 600,000 while NWA's is about 400,000. So in a way, when you break it down percetage wise they are acurate representations. One could even make the analogy between Lawton and Ft. Smith.

[mcheiss]

Actually, last estimate...Little Rock Metro was up to 686,000. With all of the new census counts that

has taken place in the last several months, the number is probably well over 700,000 now.

[Aporkalypse]

It was a brief estimate, don't take it to the exact number.

[mcheiss]

Come on, you don't have the latest Metroplan Dec 2006 estimates?

[Mith242]

I think NWA may end up choking themselves out of growth eventually if growth trends and development patterns remain the same. NWA regional planning commission has not done a good job of planning for future infrastructure (roads) and its pretty late in the game to be playing catch up. I think LR has definite leg up in that area.

[Aporkalypse]

Yeah that's a big reason why I have my doubts. It's also probably going to end up with part of the metro's population across state lines in the future. Of course for our metro I think most of the population will stay in Arkansas boundaries but then do you include all the growth that will take place say in McDonald County? It's not much now but I think it has potential. For that matter it's possible one of the Oklahoma counties could end up as part of out metro as well.

[Rardy]

This topic fascinated me so I decided to research it some.

Here's what I found, if 2000-2005 growth rates for Little Rock and NWA hold steady, and if no counties are added or subtracted from the MSA's:

2010

LR: 677,783

NWA: 472,869

2020

LR: 752,460

NWA: 644,312

2030

LR: 835,364

NWA: 877,912

And FYI, 2035 is when NWA would surpass 1,000,000.

Arkansas is very fortunate to have two economic powerhouses! The growth rates for both cities are very impressive.

[Mith242]

I'm dubious about adding OK counties (they wouldn't add many people anyway) but I would expect McDonald to become part of the metro during the next census. It still isn't growing much (surprisingly), actually only 200 people per year but one would expect it to grow substantially if the current job growth in Benton Co continues.

I'm actually surprised McDonald didn't enter the metro before Madison and Carroll. I actually wouldn't be surprised if one of these counties drops off of the metro at some point.

Still, it's pretty sparsely populated with 23,000 compared to the counties ringing LR that aren't part of the metro - Garland (93,500), White (71,322), Jefferson (81,700). It's actually very similar to Conway Co (21,300) or Hot Spring (31,200) which I would expect to join the LR MSA before these do.

[mcheiss]

I expect Barry County to be added within the next 10 years as well.

[Mith242]

This topic fascinated me so I decided to research it some.

Here's what I found, if 2000-2005 growth rates for Little Rock and NWA hold steady, and if no counties are added or subtracted from the MSA's:

2010

LR: 677,783

NWA: 472,869

2020

LR: 752,460

NWA: 644,312

2030

LR: 835,364

NWA: 877,912

And FYI, 2035 is when NWA would surpass 1,000,000.

Arkansas is very fortunate to have two economic powerhouses! The growth rates for both cities are very impressive.

[tim2462]

Well if we want to get technical I could have said that NWA is 411,000 or 412,000.

But seriously, the point of my previous post was to make a brief analogy, not provide exact estimates.

[tim2462]

This topic fascinated me so I decided to research it some.

Here's what I found, if 2000-2005 growth rates for Little Rock and NWA hold steady, and if no counties are added or subtracted from the MSA's:

2010

LR: 677,783

NWA: 472,869

2020

LR: 752,460

NWA: 644,312

2030

LR: 835,364

NWA: 877,912

And FYI, 2035 is when NWA would surpass 1,000,000.

Arkansas is very fortunate to have two economic powerhouses! The growth rates for both cities are very impressive.

[mcheiss]

mc, calm down...i've noticed that you've had a lot of attitude lately. lighten up. :-)

I wasn't being technical...but when you're talking about growth, there's a huge difference

in 600,000 and 686,000....HUGE DIFFERENCE.

[Rardy]

Those numbers are off by quite a bit...Little Rock MSA is already at 686,000 with latest estimates...over 700,000 with the special census counts that have been done in many central arkansas cities.

[masons_dad1]

Numbers and statistics are great, but Little Rock is still the urban epicentre of Arkansas and always will be. You won't find a greater concentration of skyscrapers and "urbanity" anywhere else in Arkansas or most of the US for that matter. Even if NWA could beat LR's numbers it still wouldn't be as urban or as "big city".

[tim2462]

Numbers and statistics are great, but Little Rock is still the urban epicentre of Arkansas and always will be. You won't find a greater concentration of skyscrapers and "urbanity" anywhere else in Arkansas or most of the US for that matter. Even if NWA could beat LR's numbers it still wouldn't be as urban or as "big city".

[Aporkalypse]

This topic fascinated me so I decided to research it some.

Here's what I found, if 2000-2005 growth rates for Little Rock and NWA hold steady, and if no counties are added or subtracted from the MSA's:

2010

LR: 677,783

NWA: 472,869

2020

LR: 752,460

NWA: 644,312

2030

LR: 835,364

NWA: 877,912

And FYI, 2035 is when NWA would surpass 1,000,000.

Arkansas is very fortunate to have two economic powerhouses! The growth rates for both cities are very impressive.

[Aporkalypse]

Exactly my thoughts. NWA is very nice and becoming more urban...but it won't have the urban

feel and look that LR has for a very long time, if ever. Little Rock has so much more infrastructure

in place that can handle much more growth and urbanization. Little Rock Metro has a lot of potential

that is being realized now...and I think the area will become more of a major city in the coming years. More and more skyscrapers are being built. All freeways are being upgraded to 6 lanes. Downtown is bustling. Other areas adjacent to downtown are developing their own urbanization. Housing is going up everywhere. New retail developments happening everywhere. All suburbs are growing, most are booming. There's just so much happening that is urbanizing the area even more and it's going to be a major city before you know it.

[hogwash]

A little side note on population, the combined MSA of Little Rock-Pine Bluff is right around 820,000 and if you add the adjacent Hot Springs MSA that population jumps to over 900,000. I thought that was interesting.

[Aporkalypse]

A little side note on population, the combined MSA of Little Rock-Pine Bluff is right around 820,000 and if you add the adjacent Hot Springs MSA that population jumps to over 900,000. I thought that was interesting.

[tim2462]

Along the same lines, 1.1 million people live within 50 miles of Little Rock.

[Aporkalypse]

Yes, more people live within our metro area than what is defined in the MSA.

In coming years, as more jobs are added to Little Rock and more people commute

from a little further away...those counties will most likely be added to the official MSA.

People start complaining about the number of counties...well as a city grows, it draws

commuters from further away. Atlanta has 20 counties in its MSA...so Little Rock having

10 is certainly not out of the question.

[Architect]

Very interesting topic here that I just found...so sorry for the late participation. Lots of good comments here, so let me offer two observations that I don't believe were mentioned:

1 - I think the assumption (per the UA study from a few years ago) that the 50% (10 year) growth rate of NWA continuing unabated for 30 years is tenuous at best. I'm not sure solid statistics were used in backing this up versus an elementary assumption that the trend would simply continue at that rate. Certainly, its possible (and we could all name some examples like DFW, Atlanta, etc.), but no convincing evidence was ever really given for their methods (that I heard).

2 - The very reasons why people move to NWA (or other growing metros), such as good schools, low crime, low traffic, etc. by nature begin to be compromised as a small area becomes a sizable city. So in essence, the initial "draw" or catalyst for the growth begins to disappear (example for NWA, traffic - need I say more). While regrettably Little Rock - like any mid-sized metro - began to struggle with crime, education (perceived), traffic, etc. in the past 35 years, I can ASSURE you that this was not always the case. In fact, history would show that Little Rock - perhaps like a lot of places - was nothing short of utopia in the late 40's early 50's - rapid growth, low crime, excellent, excellent schools, etc. [it is widely held by many that the Central High integration debacle set LR back 30 years - it was on the verge of major growth.] I hope NWA can escape what many cities seem to deal with as they grow, but I doubt it.

Based upon these two points (and others), I think NWA's growth rate will wane to some extent. But I hope I'm wrong...its a great area and it is GREAT for the state that there is now a legitimate second metro area in Arkansas!

[Mith242]

I do agree that I can't see the growth continuing at the current pace. For one I just don't see infrastructure keeping up. It's already behind and as it lags more and more behind it's going to hamper growth. I also think you have a point about this area changing as we experience more growth. Many people that moved here wanted a few amenities of a larger city but overall wanted a smaller city feel. I think that's also one of the things keeping NWA from feeling like a larger city. That and of course it being fragmented into numerous separate cities. But as you said as this area become bigger and bigger it will become more of a challenge to keep crime down. I think we'll just have to see how much it increases with the growth.

[hogwash]

If it means anything from speaking folks at Metroplan in Little Rock they don't believe growth will keep up either.