With or without the Siggy tower........

[Jeeper12]

Folks, the Signature Tower is dead--you can debate this topic ad nausem, but the units just aren't selling. Kiss it goodbye.

[Jeeper12]

You make a very good point. There are plenty of opportunities left to stir up interest in this project.

In regards to subject of this topic and how it might proceed, I would say that anything could be possible given there are a lot of strategies for marketing a skyscraper project. As an example of this, below is a photo of a hole in downtown Charlotte that is being dug by Wachovia bank. The rumor is this is where they plan to put their new office tower yet there are no renderings beyond a spy shot caught by one of the Urban Planeteers here. In fact there isn't really any official confirmation from the bank as to what they are doing, but it has certainly generated a lot of intense interest. You can't purchase this kind of free advertising. The point of bringing this up here is that the Signature Tower developer may try similar tactics. I think it is way too late to write off this project.

Photo credit mobuchu

[franktown]

Here's my theory: What can digging hurt? If it falls apart and we get no tower or hotel, he covers it up, takes is losses and we have a surface lot again...so an even move. I hate to be one of the naysayers...but I really don't see this project moving forward, and I think we may see it die sadly.

[monsoon]

With a market cap in the billions Wachovia can pretty much do whatever they want on one building irrespective of market forces. I think Mr. Giarantanna's situation is quite different.

[Jeeper12]

They really can't. They are responsible to the shareholders for what they do with their money and can't drop $700M on a project that isn't viable.

[tistic]

Folks, the Signature Tower is dead--you can debate this topic ad nausem, but the units just aren't selling. Kiss it goodbye.

[Jeeper12]

Tony's project, as far as I can tell, has three core elements--and to me, moving ahead on the first two elements makes perfect sense.

1. Parking. If Tony goes ahead and digs the hole & invests the money to build out a ten story underground parking garage, then future parking revenue makes that a safe call. He can probably plan on recovering his investment without much risk (if any--for all I know there's a huge profit awaiting him on that, since much of the hole has already been blasted).

2. Hotel. The hotel group is committed, so having their share of the building begin asap makes sense, for the same reason. With their hotel management background, the hotel is likely a very safe investment. It's not like Nashville has an oversupply of boutique hotels--and even if it did, this group may be able to outdo the rest.

This leaves the third element, the condos, which would be ridiculous to call "dead" for one reason that seems quite obvious to me: Tony has well over 100 willing condo buyers who've asked to be included in the project. Any bank will lend money to this developer for this project if its scale matches what the market is demanding. So the project is hardly dead, provided Tony would not lose his mind and walk away from willing buyers--his task would be to convince them that a 60 or 45 or 30 story tower meets their expectations well enough. Most buyers would probably be glad to trade the height-related prestige--in the event the building had to be scaled down for market reasons--in exchange for getting their home or investment property months earlier and for faster elevator service.

Chronology demands that the garage & hotel specs be finished first, so moving ahead with those now that those plans are finished makes sense, as far as I can tell. The first two elements will have to be built to accommodate the tallest (more to the point, the heaviest) anticipated structure above the hotel, but that's limited to the expense of what would potentially be extra concrete to support everything at the first condo level and above.

My guess is that expense of going ahead before the condo tower has reached the point of no return is to Tony's mind substantially offset by the costs and risks of delaying the garage & hotel until every last detail with the condo tower can be known.

So common sense economics says we can plan on seeing another parking facility where one is greatly needed, a great hotel for our city in an excellent location (right on top of the parking garage), and (at a minimum) a scaled down version of the tower. But for the reason stated in the previous paragraph, I don't find any reason in this thread to believe the project won't reach the height promised at the Signature website--if anything, I would think a project of this scale must be done in phases in order avoid materials-related cost increases.

Does anyone think Tony would not simply scale down the project to meet demand, if he had trouble gaining the rest of the buyers he needs? Is there something I'm not seeing that means he should walk away from over 100 piles of money on the table?? Even the somewhat skeptical article referenced earlier admits Tony's connections to the banking community are solid enough that he might have landed his financing before the article got published...

[tistic]

I think there are several flaws in your logic.

First, the notion that the 10 level parking garage would support itself (or even come close) in a worst case where nothing materialized (hotel or condo) above is really unrealistic especially considering the $10 million plus land cost that would be a drag on the stand alone garage. There are other reasons as well. Frankly, the concept of going 10 stories down with parking for the entire project is a bit risky in and of itself. Would you pay $500/ft to park in the last few levels at the bottom ? If so, ask you wife, sister or mother their opinion. If the whole project were to be built I

[monsoon]

......

It's interesting to think about and debate stuff like this on UP, but at the end of the day Tony Giarratana and his team are closer to all these decisions and far better informed about what affects the outcomes than anyone who spends much time reading & posting here. And they've got a lot more riding on it than anyone else, so they've got an enormous incentive to not only seem right, but to be right. .....

[Jeeper12]

I may be uninformed on some things, but I'm pretty sure my logic is okay.

I probably could have phrased my comment better...no offense intended.

"And, if it were possible to simply scale down the project he

[tistic]

I went back & looked at the article again. It's always difficult to discern inflection and attitude from black & white, but to me really seems like Waldrop is solidly behind the project rather than doubting it:

"[Tony] does know Nashvillians very, very well. It showed with the Viridian, but Signature Tower is truly a different market.

[tistic]

But isn't that stating the obvious of any proposal out there? It does not necessarily mean it will get built.

[GRDadof3]

Just stumbled on this discussion and it's quite interesting. One thing to point out, as I have had past experience working with marketing companies that specialize in high-rise condos, you can probably assume that at least a 1/3 of the "reservations" are "friends of the developer", business associates, maybe even partners on the project, just to help it get to the 50% sold mark. The key is converting reservations to purchase agreements, which I've seen conversion ratios as high as 75% to as low as 25% (or less). They may be going through the reservation list and really only seeing 50 or so "hard" reservations that they feel would stick. Just a thought.

And just because a product is missing in a market (I think I read these will be the most expensive condos/sf ever available in Nashville?) does not at all mean that it's an "untapped market" that can be filled. There could be very good reasons why this hasn't been done before (not at all slighting Nashville).

[Jeeper12]

I've tried some complicated, difficult things before, and such challenges are always made far more complicated and far more difficult when there is even one person (let alone a cadre of people) talking down about your judgment, knowledge, skills and abilities, and doubting to anyone listening whether you will succeed. Actually, some people are motivated by it--Tony may actually not notice at all--but it is the type of thing that other people notice and remember for the rest of their lives, especially if they end up short of their goals.

UP is successful enough that industry insiders read what's posted here, so at a minimum for someone like Tony it might be dispiriting. (Again, he may not notice or care, or even be motivated by it.) At worst, though, to the extent certain folks don't check at the door their images of themselves as having size 13 brains, then the entertainment value of places like UP could conceivably creep into such cynicism beyond these threads that other media outlets pick up on the negative buzz and actually diminish the outcome of a project someone staked their careers on.

Constructive criticism? Great. Bring it on. Ask tough questions? Fun to learn from each other. But "Give it up, it's dead" is the level of dark cynicism that IMO calls for what I posted earlier and for that Roosevelt quote just now. Someone can say it's dead if they want to, and probably no one would ever come back and call them on it at a later date even if they could be proved wrong. But as things are unfolding and lots of positive things are still happening with a project, I have to wonder what motivates someone to slam a very nice guy like Tony who is clearly putting a lot on the line to raise the profile of one of America's great cities.

[Jeeper12]

"[Tony] does know Nashvillians very, very well. It showed with the Viridian, but Signature Tower is truly a different market.

[tistic]

I respectfully disagree. I think the guy was pointing out that Tony had obvious success selling the Viridian but he seemed to be making a distinction between the nature of a Viridian buyer and the profile of a prospect for Signature. I don't think even Tony has ever suggested that any significant % of his Viridian buyers came from Belle Meade or Williamson Cty.

Girantanna isn't at all tied in to to the Belle Meade crowd. I don't know what, if any, Willimason Cty connections he has. It's worth noting that the only condo experience he has had in Belle Meade was a failed attempt to launch a project called Mayfair a few years ago. I have no idea why that project didn't go but he was the sole developer behind it working with the May family (who own the land).

[reednavy05]

Lord jesus, people, just quite doubting this. HE HAS YET TO OPEN A SALES OFFICE, just landing 20% reservation before a sales office is rare, even in markets like Atlanta and Miami. Like Iv'e said, time is what this project will take, I talked to a sales associate employed by T.G. at the Viridian, and she said it is likely 2010 will be the done year of Signature Tower, and that seems very likely, considering a 100 foot deep hole has to be dug and blasted out.

[doormanpoet]

I never believe anyything until I see actual work. Lets be thankful that the city we live in is growing for the better! At last count I think there are 15 or so cranes in the sky now. Whether Tony builds this thing or not remains to be seen. (We all know what has happened with West End Summit over the past 5 or 6 years now...nothing!)

Instead of constant debate and worry about something we have no control over, I have chosen to involve myself in bowling, reading, hiking, fine dining, and hobbies where I actually have control of the participation and outcome. (I even quit watching most sports because the teams I like are a constant disappointment.)

Whether all these projects get built or not is no longer a concern of mine or even an interest. I bid you all farewell and I hope to enjoy these architectual additions and achievements if they actually happen. Until that time comes, I am going to try to get that 300 game!

Merry Christmas and a Happy New year to all!

John

[reednavy05]

geez, ok, yeah just give up on this post like you did your sports teams if you only believe it when you see it. some of us actually give a damn about some of this stuff and love just the thought or proposal of something. BTW, how much knowledge do you have in real estate? My family is full of very successful agents that are experts in condos in Miami and Atlanta, and homes in the Boro. and i have been told by them that just the fact that a project of this calliber put out there is very bold, and garnered much not just national, but international attention. I have been to many conferences(when I can take military leave) in Atlanta on condominiums, and one HUGE spotlight was drawn on the Signature Tower. You will not believe the utter, in frank terms, SHOCK that many condo realtors in ATL experienced when the heard about this. The dinner afterwards, there was actually more talk of Nashville and the Signature Tower than the projects in Atlanta. Many realtors have faith in this project being done. thats my 2 cents