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100,000 Uptown Residents By 2026...

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"In Charlotte, the trend has revived neighborhoods such as NoDa and Plaza-Midwood and added to a flurry of construction uptown. About 11,000 people now live inside the Interstate 277 loop. That figure could rise to 100,000 by 2026, says the Charlotte Chamber. "

http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/business/16259436.htm

In reading the "O" this morning I came accorss a miscillaneous article referring to some young real estate goers making it BIG in the local scene. While I am happy for their success, I found the most startling piece in the article referring to the Center City residential boom. According to the article, The Chamber is anticipating upwards of 100,000 people living in Uptown in less than 20 years!!!

What do you guys think? I know Furman and other developers have come up with some large numbers, but 100,000 being touted by the Chamber?! :wacko:

Is this just another number being tossed around by an overly optomistic Chamber, or do any of you guys think it possible that Uptown will boast an Uptown Population of 100,000??? (or an increase of nearly 1000%)

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It would be interesting to know what American cities boast 100,000 center city residents these days. That's a lot of folks!

The last I heard downtown Seattle has ~30,000 residents.

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100,000 is pure hogwash. Of course, the Chamber has to pick a ridiculously high number to generate enthusiasm. That would assume that about 8% (?) of the metro population would want to live uptown- and current trends and polling data do not support that at all.

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I think the # the developers like Furman were using is 1-2% of the metro pop. could support living uptown. Anyone care to take a stab at what the metro population will be in 2026? 100k seems a bit much to me, but I could see 50k if we continue the infill.

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I think the # the developers like Furman were using is 1-2% of the metro pop. could support living uptown. Anyone care to take a stab at what the metro population will be in 2026? 100k seems a bit much to me, but I could see 50k if we continue the infill.

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The most agressive estimate I have would put the Charlotte metro at 4.4 million by then. So, conceivably, based on those numbers, it could occur, BUT, I don't think pysically inside the loop, that there is enough room for that many residential units. My personal guess is that unless something unexpected like all of Government Center or Elmood Cemetary gets removed, that the Uptown population (inside 277)will top out somewhere in the 40k range.

EDIT. Metro, your historic metro growth number is low. The Charlotte MSA grew over 40k between 2004 and 2005, and the CSA grew over 50k. It would also be reasonable to assume that larger places grow at a larger absolute number, using Atlanta as an example. While its growth rate has remained similar for the last 20 years, it now adds many more people a year than it did in the late 80s.

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You are correct. I was only looking at domestic migration.

The correct numbers for the Charlotte MSA are:

2000 - 2005 +181,377

2005 population = 1,521,278

So assuming that rate holds, then we will see 725,508 people move into the 6,000 sq/mile area that makes up our MSA. Total population will be 2.3M. There is no way this MSA will be anywhere close to 4.4M in 20 years.

Will 4.4% of them live in the center city. (instead of 5%) Probably not, for the same reasons that I gave above.

I would not put much stock in the CSA growth because if you balance out the counties that are losing people vs those that are gaining, they pretty much cancel each other out except for Iredell. In other words look at Iredell if you want to see the additional growth in the CSA.

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I think the Chamber is obviously overstating what is coming and probably what is possible INSIDE the 277 loop. I do think their number could be realistic if they are really meaning what will be considered downtown in a few years to come. Jump over 277 for just a half mile or maybe more and that is what many are now seeing as "downtown". They have already merged the police district of 28202/uptown with the SouthEnd and Wilmore area and the Piedmont Courts former site (I still can't call it what they named it), Alpha Mill, Metropolitan, Grubb's Elizabeth project, Morehead projects, and many others are very urban in their feel and are close enough to our very center city to be considered part of it were the 277 barrier not there. Many developers and business leaders are already viewing "uptown" as more than just what is inside 277.

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Dougie and the Chamber is really undermining their credibility here. They should say 100k in the best case possible, but not in the expected case. It wasn't that long ago when everyone was saying it would be a stretch goal of getting 100k employees downtown in 2025. Now they are pretending there will be this many residents, and presumably many more employees.

I agree with the others that I would only buy that if they expanded the boundaries. Otherwise, I don't even believe there is enough space within 277 to fit buildings enough for 100k residents. If they truly expect there to be a market for that, they should ban any more lowrise development, such as what is happening in the Coffee Cup area, Third Ward, First Ward, and Second Ward. I doubt that by 2025, there would be an appetite to tear down the 20 year old projects for high rises, but maybe.

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I doubt that by 2025, there would be an appetite to tear down the 20 year old projects for high rises, but maybe.

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It isn't even a question of appetite but whether it is even possible. To tear down a condo building you would have to buy each and every condo. Assembling various lots or multiple parcels of homes is hard enough, much less every unit is a multi-unit building. Imagine how expensive the last few units would be.

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For those reasons, C_N, if there is absolutely any validity to what the Chamber is saying, the zoning should be changed immediately, requiring a certain density per acre. 3/4 of uptown is still in the mode of lowrise and midrise buildings, which would create quite an impediment to such future density.

But methinks dem is on da crack.

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If you look at an overhead view of downtown, it's notible that at least 50% of it, if not more is still just vacant lots. I think there will need to be a lot more development before we get to the point of having to tear down stuff because population demands warrant it.

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The area bounded by 77 and 277 is roughly 3 square miles, correct? So while 33K per square mile would at least assume the removal of both cemetaries, this is not out of the realm of possibility for such an area, even given the fact it is shared by office buildings, government, civic and retail facilities. I believe Manhattan has a density somewhere close to 100K pre square mile, and of course is the office captial of the world, as well as having numerous retail, govt. and civic structures.

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Couldn't the city simply use eminant domain per the recent supreme court decision.

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The densest neighborhood in Chicago, the near North Side, had a population density of about 48,541 per square mile in 2000, over an area of 1.5 square miles. And it's not a nice area -- it's famous for some of America's worst housing projects, including Cabrini-Green.

Manhattan's population density in 2000 was about 69,873 per square mile. The historical peak came in 1910, at 106,000 per square mile -- thanks to the Lower East Side, then the most densely populated place on Earth.

So for Uptown to hit 100,000, assuming no expansion of present boundaries, it wouldn't have to be Manhattan, but it would have to be denser than almost all of Chicago.

I'll take the under on that bet.

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You're right, I was off a little, Manhattan is currently at 75K (21.5 square miles & 1.6 million pop) per square mile, but is not as significant because we only have to be dense in a very small area, so should not be a great issue, 75K is Manhattan's average density, with much greater spikes. Manhattan itself has plenty of room for growth, actually, so could easily reach 2 million once again, which can be related to CLT's removal of the lowrises already in DT if it comes down to that. As to Chicago's greatest dense area, don't think density has a direct correlation to how good or bad an area is.

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My guess is the CBD population will be somewhere around 20K-25K in 2026 without some serious changes in how Charlotte manages land use. Right now it is anything goes.

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Yeah, not holding the breath on a subway system, and it looks like the full 5 spoke LYNX system will not be completed by 2026 at this pace of funding issues, infighting and mismanagement. Just curious, is there any kind of long term plan for a subway system in say 50 years? Not that CLT is actively planning on it, but just in terms of placing certain restrictions on construction and reserving space for this eventuality (thinking mainly of the towers and the fact their bases are usually quite deep).

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There are no plans for a subway at the current time. 50 years is too far off for this kind of planning. If global warming continues, everyone might have moved back north by then to avoid the summer heat and Charlotte could be a ghost city.

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100,000 is ever so slightly out of reach within 20 years:) heehee You can't fault them for being optimistic though~~

On the thread "Novare's 3rd Ward Massive Projects" I just addressed a problem that I feel will hold Uptown back from it's lofty population goals. I see the #1 problem holding back extensive Uptown residential growth to be the lack of apartments, particularly highrise apartments.

All the condos under construction Uptown are wonderful. I'm sure there's not one of us who isn't excited by this upcoming Uptown residential era. BUT when all the new residents will be upper middle classed or wealthy, a lively and diverse center city can't possibly develop. Most artists, young musicians, creative types and social innovators can't afford a $250,000+ condo.

As I said in my other post, Seattle recognized this problem a long time ago, and has built many many highrise apartment towers downtown (out of city coffers) The rents are on a sliding scale, and the buildings' residents are from all walks of life. I trace Seattle's wildly successful downtown energy to this policy. Diversity is what makes cities great. Condos that cost $250,000+ won't bring in very much diversity.

Affordable high rise apartments are Charlotte's best hope to create a lively and desireable center city, in my most humble opinion:) Then maybe 25,000 people within 20 years?

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^ Saw your other post and agree with you, was just thinking of the logistics - it must take much longer to pay off an apt. high-rise, whereas a condo tower can be paid off by the time construction is complete. Not sure if that is a factor keeping this from happening, it is interesting as you mentioned in the other thread that Seattle itself built the apt. towers, so not a private enterprise, but don't think CLT has the money left to do that. Someone might argue that a certain $265M might have been better spent. :whistling: At any rate I am curious to the speculative power of such an idea, clearly any downtown that is encapsulated (all necessary services and amenities) will need to have a significant percentage of transient housing.

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"In Charlotte, the trend has revived neighborhoods such as NoDa and Plaza-Midwood and added to a flurry of construction uptown. About 11,000 people now live inside the Interstate 277 loop. That figure could rise to 100,000 by 2026, says the Charlotte Chamber. "

http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/business/16259436.htm

In reading the "O" this morning I came accorss a miscillaneous article referring to some young real estate goers making it BIG in the local scene. While I am happy for their success, I found the most startling piece in the article referring to the Center City residential boom. According to the article, The Chamber is anticipating upwards of 100,000 people living in Uptown in less than 20 years!!!

What do you guys think? I know Furman and other developers have come up with some large numbers, but 100,000 being touted by the Chamber?! :wacko:

Is this just another number being tossed around by an overly optomistic Chamber, or do any of you guys think it possible that Uptown will boast an Uptown Population of 100,000??? (or an increase of nearly 1000%)

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Is it possible this was a mistake since the employment forecast for 2025 is 100,000 (there are currently 56,000)? All the studies and forecasts I have seen estimate 20 - 25,000 center city residents by 2025.

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