Nashville's population

[chris holman]

I know we have 3 more years before the population stats are updated. Does anyone think that the city will hit 600,000 people in 3 years? I know the city is growing very rapidly but how fast are people moving in, and what is the percentage of the population growth.

[urbanbna]

Another thing to take in is, how fast is it actually "growing?"

Are the new condos creating a new population, or are they just relocating the current population, like some of the new office buildings do with the office population.

[Hankster]

I know we have 3 more years before the population stats are updated. Does anyone think that the city will hit 600,000 people in 3 years? I know the city is growing very rapidly but how fast are people moving in, and what is the percentage of the population growth.

[smeagolsfree]

I would agree with Hank. I think we are already well passed the 600,000 mark. A lot of development has taken place in SE Davidson County and more homes being built there every day. By the time we have all of the condo units that are on the boards now for DT, you can add at least 4 or 5 thousand more people in. New subdivisions going in north and west as well.

[nowensone]

Been wondering about Nashville, since seemingly the city, and therefore county, has a relatively low growth rate lately, while of course the metro is exploding. This happens often in center cities, but not ones that are really counties, or otherwise very large in land area. Clearly there is great growth based on visible construction in the center itself, are the census numbers and other estimates really to blame for the discrepancy?

[FromParkAveToTN]

Do they count the thousands of students who move here to attend the colleges and universities in Davidson County into these figures?

[Rardy]

Do they count the thousands of students who move here to attend the colleges and universities in Davidson County into these figures?

[MidTenn1]

No, students are counted wherever their "permanent address" is.

[Rardy]

Actually, my Daughter who was living on MTSU's campus at the time (2000) was required to report as a Murfreesboro (MTSU location) resident on the census reports and not her real home (Cheatham County).

So I suspect, City populations include resident students.

[ATLBrain]

Been wondering about Nashville, since seemingly the city, and therefore county, has a relatively low growth rate lately, while of course the metro is exploding. This happens often in center cities, but not ones that are really counties, or otherwise very large in land area. Clearly there is great growth based on visible construction in the center itself, are the census numbers and other estimates really to blame for the discrepancy?

[nowensone]

OK, I'm posting this one, have tried 3 different times to better make my point which seems difficult to explain for some reason.

Nashville/Davidson county growth has been relatively flat since the city county merger back in the 50's, relative to other growing metros. Which makes sense up until the 90's (sort of): In typical cities, the suburban flight which began in the 50's would decrease the city population and increase the county population (as well as surrounding counties). In Nash/Davidson, you might expect these two forces to balance out, which you can observe that they did. However, the trend had died down by the 90's, and yet the 1990 to 2000 growth was still flat. I have observed a lot of construction in Nashville, not just DT, for years, and would expect the growth to be much higher than the numbers say, even higher than the projection of 620K. I am a traveller, and not a resident, so maybe I am missing the whole picture, but the numbers don't seem to gel with observation.

[Rardy]

I definitely think Nashville will top 600,000 by 2010. In fact, if the city experiences the same growth rate it did between 1990 and 2000, it will hit 618,000. That's conservative since growth seems to have only accelerated since the '90's.

Couple of things, though, when calculating population. First, don't confuse job growth with population growth. They're just not the same, and a lot of the construction in Nashville proper right now represents jobs more than rooftops. And second, don't count on all the condo construction to boom the population that much. Condos will have a lower resident average than other types of housing - probably 1.7 or 1.8 people per unit - and they often represent a net population loss from a different part of the metro.

But yeah...I'd venture to say it'll be at least 600,000 in 2010.

[Hankster]

OK, I'm posting this one, have tried 3 different times to better make my point which seems difficult to explain for some reason.

Nashville/Davidson county growth has been relatively flat since the city county merger back in the 50's, relative to other growing metros. Which makes sense up until the 90's (sort of): In typical cities, the suburban flight which began in the 50's would decrease the city population and increase the county population (as well as surrounding counties). In Nash/Davidson, you might expect these two forces to balance out, which you can observe that they did. However, the trend had died down by the 90's, and yet the 1990 to 2000 growth was still flat. I have observed a lot of construction in Nashville, not just DT, for years, and would expect the growth to be much higher than the numbers say, even higher than the projection of 620K. I am a traveller, and not a resident, so maybe I am missing the whole picture, but the numbers don't seem to gel with observation.

[nowensone]

^ No, I agree with you that they seem low, just wondering how so, it is not quite like Texas or California in the extreme number of uncounted illegal citizens, not yet anyway. As far as flat growth, didn't mean actually flat, but relatively flat, as in compared to other cities and metros that are fast growing, which I believe Nashville is a member of from first hand experience, but not backed up by census numbers. Typically wouldn't place much stock in city population numbers, except that Nashville of course includes areas normally separate due to the county consolidation, and should make population increases even more dramatic as you get suburban growth and city growth combined.

[ATLBrain]

I am a traveller, and not a resident, so maybe I am missing the whole picture, but the numbers don't seem to gel with observation.

[nowensone]

Where do you live?

[ATLBrain]

Just curious... never heard of Nihilty's Kitchen LOL... I wouldn't think being from Gboro would shade your perspective. I have sis/bro in laws there and I used to live in Durham so I'm quite familiar with the area. I think Greensboro has grown similarly to Nashville in recent years.

The only thing you're saying that I'd disagree with is your choice of the word "flat"... obviously Davidson is not growing at a rate nearly as fast as its surrounding counties. Nor has it grown at the same rate as the core counties of say Atlanta or Orlando in recent decades. However, 15% to 12% per decade for any large county is not flat. It is relatively lower than other peer metros.

Also, since the Nashville went Metro in 1964, the population has grown 62%, hardly flat.

[nowensone]

Really from several places, CLT first, then briefly northern Georgia and then NE New Jersey, just spent 5 and 6 years in Austin and Houston, respectively, and recently moved back to GSO. A few other places I visit often.

My take on Nashville is that it is clearly a fast growing place, and why I say it's growth rate is relatively flat, not statically so, compared to your other exploding city/metros like CLT, Jacksonville, etc. Which I find more odd since the consolidation with the county should have pushed it's rate even higher since some of the metro growth should still lie within Davidson county. It's 1970 pop. was 450K, so there has not been a huge increase according to the census numbers, however it seems that it is growing at a similar pace to other places that have at a minimum doubled in the same period.

[ATLBrain]

Just be careful that you're not paying too much to the recent Census estimates for NSH. I think (as has been acknowledged on this board)... that the latest estimates are grossly undercounted. This is just a pattern that has been seen in the last couple of decades (midcensus). Just as some cities grossly overestimate their populations between the decennial counts, others let their estimates slide. Nashville does not pay too much attention to the details of its own growth (unfortunately to many).

I have a friend who is a retired actuary who used to run a division of Provident Life in Chattanooga. He now lives near Sewanee in his "cabin". He's in his late 60s, and works as a consultant to local governments to estimate regions' populations. I paid him a visit last summer and this topic came up. Anyway, he showed me his table on several of the cities he'd followed, and Nashville was one. That's where I got the numbers I passed on above.

[nowensone]

The main reason I was posting here was the speculation that actual census numbers were inaccurate, not the estimates, as I've often wondered just how accurately it is possible to gauge population given the census techniques we employ...

Even the current estimates you posted of 620K seem to indicate a smaller rate of growth than other cities with a similar metro growth rate, which again seems even more odd given that Nashville includes some of it's own metro by virtue of being consolidated with it's county. Thats the gist of my point I think...

[ATLBrain]

OK, I think I got the gist. I'll leave it with you.

[franktown]

This is going to sound awful, and I may be criticised for it, but I'm just calling it how some people (not myself or my family) see it. I think that when Nashville (city) and Davidson Cty consolidated, they ran off some people, because some people don't want their kids going to city schools and the diversity that comes along with that, and I think that may have hurt some areas. I know I've heard some people say that they didn't want to live in Bellevue because it didn't have a High School, and they didn't want their kids going into the city. I do think that growth for the city of Nashville doesn't show the growth of the overall area, because much of the growth is in the surrounding cities.

[ATLBrain]

No doubt about it... however, I wouldn't necessarily say that they were fleeing the diversity per-se (in most cases). I'd say it was the breakup of the community high school system brought as a settlement to the desegregation suit in the 1970s. The very same thing happened in Atlanta. People actually fled Fulton and Dekalb for Gwinnett and Cobb b/c of the dual whammy of forced busing and elimination of community (mostly high) schools.

Also, there's no doubt that the property tax rates in the unurbanized parts of Davidson went up compared to the rates in adjacent counties. Don't understimate the powerful effect that property taxes can have on migration of an area's population.

Of course, the Interstates (new at the time) made it much easier to live outside of Davidson.

[Hankster]

^ No, I agree with you that they seem low, just wondering how so, it is not quite like Texas or California in the extreme number of uncounted illegal citizens, not yet anyway. As far as flat growth, didn't mean actually flat, but relatively flat, as in compared to other cities and metros that are fast growing, which I believe Nashville is a member of from first hand experience, but not backed up by census numbers. Typically wouldn't place much stock in city population numbers, except that Nashville of course includes areas normally separate due to the county consolidation, and should make population increases even more dramatic as you get suburban growth and city growth combined.

[smeagolsfree]

One thing to note is the fact that Metro schools are up for an award for systems that have shown the most improvement. They are a finalist there. So things are getting better.