Charlotte has been moved into Agricultural Zone 8

[RaleighHeelsfan]

There's actually a good deal of truth to what you say. While snow in Charlotte obviously isn't a frequent occurence, we did used to get more snow than now. I did a little research and found out some amazing statistics, according to records at the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

Starting with the winter of 1957-1958 Charlotte recorded measurable snowfall at the airport EVERY winter through 90-91. That's 34 consecutive winters with at least some snow. Granted, sometimes it was less than an inch....but it was enough to get on the books. Then, starting in the winter of 91-92, snowfalls became much less common. Here's something amazing -- In the entire period from 1917 to 1991 (74 winters) there were only 6 years that Charlotte had no recorded snowfall. BUT, 6 of the last 15 have been snowless!

Here are snowfall totals by decade, starting with the 1920s, which is the first decade in which I could find reliable and consistent records:

1920s -- 56.9"

1930s -- 62.4"

1940s -- 45.2"

1950s -- 24.6"

1960s -- Charlotte entered a particularly snowy decade. Starting with the winter of 1959-60 and ending with 1969-70, Charlotte received 100.6" of snow!

1970s -- 74.7"

1980s -- 57.4"

1990s -- A marked decrease. Only 13.6" for the entire decade!

Since the turn of the new century we have received 20.1"....most of that coming from the major storm of February 2004 when 12" was recorded at the airport (while the SouthPark area of the city got an amazing 21").

Yes, it's obvious that weather works in cycles and patterns over a period of many years. And who knows? We may head back into another cycle of snowy winters at some point, although that's looking less and less likely. The point is that...yes....it did used to snow more frequently around here. And the contrast is particularly striking for those of us who can remember the 70s and 80s (heck, I can even remember the tail end of the 1960s)!

[PlazaMidwoodGuy]

I don't agree with you.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

I'm not sure exactly what it is you don't agree with. Basically, I stated that most of the decades of the 20th Century were snowier in Charlotte than recent ones. Those are facts that aren't up for debate. Also, those figures are strictly in reference to Charlotte -- not Manteo or Raleigh or any other place Down East.

I'm not going to get drawn into a debate about Global Warming in this forum. While it's true the Earth has certainly experienced many cycles of warm/cold over the eons, the OVERWHELMING majority of science supports the idea that the current warming is incredibly rapid and has been influenced by humans. Just today, it was in the news that a sheet of ice at least 3,000 years old has broken off from the main Arctic ice cap and that the remaining ice sheets in that area of northern Canada are 90% smaller than when they were first discovered in 1906. But since you introduced the topic I will say that, if anything, the recent snowy winters that you mention along the coast are completely in line with what scientists have been saying for years about one of the side effects of global warming....and that is that storm systems in general will become stronger when they feed off the warmer oceans and higher moisture content in the atmosphere. And if there happens to be enough cold air in place at the same time that one of those storms pops up, then it can result in copious amounts of snow. Then, of course, the temperature could rise to 70 degrees two days after the storm and stay there for a week. Such extremes could become more of the norm under most climate change models that I'm aware of.

So, just perhaps, the fact that coastal NC has seen some recent snowy winters from these storms that "explode" off the coast, is evidence of that very idea. Comparitively speaking, the inland areas farther away from these big coastal storms (the western Piedmont and the mountains) have seen less snow in recent years.

[ilektronik]

Again, it does not matter what century it is, with the current weather pattern, it would be mild in NC. These weather patterns can hold up for a couple years. The Cold air is locked up on the other side of the pole. This patter will change come the 12th of Jan. Expect some snow and much colder weather by the end of Jan.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

That's a big matza ball hanging out there if your predictions don't come true. Put me down for continued warm weather through mid-late feb, with a brief cold spell in late feb.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

Not to make this a weather thread, but here is one of the models I have been looking at. It still shows 8-10 days out now being very warm. But others are showing the colder air sooner. If you look closely, you will see the very cold air is in Alaska and points northwestward. This will begin to head our way slowly after the 10th!

[monsoon]

I am not saying global warming is not happening. I am just saying it can still get cold, for weeks at the time here. It is just the pattern we have been stuck in last winter and this season so far. Just like the sounds freezing over at the coast a couple winters ago. That is extreme cold! Charlotte and Raleigh had 4 straight days where the temps never got out of the 20's for highs. This was just a couple winters ago. ......

[ilektronik]

No way! No warm weather thru feb. That would stink!

The new long range models are hinting colder air might start a few days earlier than I thought! Maybe around the 10th. It will probably not be long lasting to start off with, but we will probably get some cold air coming in shots starting around that time! Finally!

Starts looking really good around the 20th! So much for the warm air!

[RaleighHeelsfan]

you should check out Rochester, NY. I used to live there and it sounds to me that you would definitely dig their weather better. It is always cold in the winter there.

I won't put away my shorts just yet. I think your predictions are bogus.

[ilektronik]

Why do you think it is bogus? I am just looking at long range computer models.....

[RaleighHeelsfan]

Well, first off, I don't listen to anything accuweather says.

Here is what I think, I guess you can call it an update. My predictions are simple. I am looking at the long range GFS.

We will have a shot of cold air around the 10th. Probably normal or slightly below normal weather for us. Upper 40's? But that will be cold compared to what we had.

The ridge will quickly build back over the east...so it will warm up again quickly. But this time, the warm air will be holding on for dear life. The cold air....I mean really cold air will be on its door steps. Models are showing very cold air to enter the eastern U.S. around the 16th or so. I have been watching the GFS for a couple weeks now, and they have not changed much.

Here is the GFS for right now.... link:My Webpage

Here is the GFS for the 10th, colder air moves in...around normal to slightly below:

Here is the brutal stuff coming in around the 17th: The colder air will continue to flow in after this..get colder and colder. If the models are right:

[monsoon]

Note: It's OK just to post a link to these weather reports.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

Note: It's OK just to post a link to these weather reports.

[PlazaMidwoodGuy]

Anyway, notice the highs for Wednesday, upper 40's. Just like I said nearly 10 days ago. May be a bit cooler than that...around 45 to be exact. The national weather service is now showing those highes for the 10th. They show the temps rebounding to the mid 50's after, just like I said it would. But the really cold stuff will be coming by the end of the month.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

Well, between Accuweather and Weather.com, the highs in Charlotte are only supposed to drop back to the "frigid" low 50's later this week, which is right at normal. Then back up into the 60's by next weekend. The extended Accuweather forecast shows highs in the mid-to-upper 40's most of the week of the 15th thru the 19th. Granted, that's quite chilly compared to the recent warmth and slightly below normal, but nothing noteworthy, even by Charlotte standards. Still, I'll happily take highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's if it stops the vegetation from sprouting nearly two months early AND kills some of those damnable mosquitoes!

Believe me, I hope the end of January and all of February are cold and that we get at least one good snow. You'd be hard-pressed to find a bigger cold weather hound than me. But last winter was about as mild as this one has been so far, and if we go back to the original point of this thread, it's obvious that our winters are getting more consistently mild, with only the occasional "shots" of cold air. Springs are coming earlier and earlier. Maybe I should give in and go ahead and plant a date palm in my front yard.

[PlazaMidwoodGuy]

Also, Accuweather is a joke in the weather world

[ilektronik]

it's obvious that our winters are getting more consistently mild, with only the occasional "shots" of cold air. Springs are coming earlier and earlier. Maybe I should give in and go ahead and plant a date palm in my front yard.

[PlazaMidwoodGuy]

As for the Date Palm, I'd stay away from those. They even get leaf burn down in FL on colder nights, they wouldn't stand a chance here.

[ilektronik]

Oh, trust me...I was only kidding about that. You won't ever see any type of palm...date or otherwise...on my property. If I want to live someplace that looks tropical, I'll move to Flahrida.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

Boy, did I ever nail this forecast or what. I told ya

Mid to upper 40's for Jan 10th. I told you back in late december. And thats what the mets are saying now...finally.

I said it would warm up again...it will after the tenth. I then said around the 16th, it would get cold again. We should see highs in the low 40's at that time. Maybe another brief warm up.....but then the very cold stuff gets in hear. We could be seeing highs below freezing perhaps. The cold weather could be lasting for a while. So get ready!

Jan 16th.....might be colder than the low 40's I am predicting. There could be some rain around at the time. If so, it could be much cooler....30's. ????? To early for snow I think. Those chances will increase dramatically after the 20th.

We will be seeing some snow here shortly. Maybe by the end of the month.

[monsoon]

Do you want a prize?

[NCMike1981]

...lol...

[ilektronik]

Boy, did I ever nail this forecast or what. I told ya

Mid to upper 40's for Jan 10th. I told you back in late december. And thats what the mets are saying now...finally.

I said it would warm up again...it will after the tenth. I then said around the 16th, it would get cold again. We should see highs in the low 40's at that time. Maybe another brief warm up.....but then the very cold stuff gets in hear. We could be seeing highs below freezing perhaps. The cold weather could be lasting for a while. So get ready!

Jan 16th.....might be colder than the low 40's I am predicting. There could be some rain around at the time. If so, it could be much cooler....30's. ????? To early for snow I think. Those chances will increase dramatically after the 20th.

We will be seeing some snow here shortly. Maybe by the end of the month.

[RaleighHeelsfan]

how were you right?? we are seeing two nights with NORMAL winter temps for this area, and next week we are heading back into the upper 60's. this el nino has definitely not let up yet.

there is NO way we are going to see daytime highs drop below 50's for any real stretch(ie more than a day or two). also don't forget, you can't compare Raleigh and Charlotte as the transitional zone line sort of runs right in-between the two cities. actually, Charlotte itself is sort of in the split, with areas northwest of Lake Norman in a solid zone 7b and southeast of Lake Norman in a marginal 8a

[MZT]

As a kid in the 1980s I generally expected 2 or 3 snows. The main question to me then, was whether they would be "wasted" on weekends.

I think the winters in the late 1970s were unusually cold by historical standards. I remember seeing houses in Greensboro with big, nasty looking ice-cicles hanging from the eaves.

On the whole though, I don't think it has ever been normal for snow to stay on the ground more than about 3 to 4 days. Even the monster once-a-decade foot-deep ones usually melted off fairly fast.

Sleet, on the other hand could take a while. We have had some heavy sleets that simply congealed into 2 or 3 inch thick ice sheets on the ground.