Arizona Tops Nevada in Pop. Growth

[MJLO]

According to latest estimates Arizona, has pulled in front of Nevada as the fastest growing state in the country. The article really talked about the entire country, but focused on Arizona's exponential growth surpassing, NV's. Other interesting things in the Article, North Carolina edged out New Jersey to become the nations 10th most populous state. All others in the top ten remained steady in position.

So the state is still gaining residents in droves, so why are we having a slowdown in housing? There is obviously still a demand for it.

[Manolos]

I never realized NC was so large. I have family in Charlotte and though its the largest city it still seems like a small state.

Im glad Arizona is luring so many people here but there may be bad effects.

[MJLO]

There will always be the good with the bad in growth scenario. Although I'm sure growth is all around better than Decline.

As for North Carolina, Charlotte and it's metro area are decent enough in size. It has alot of midsized metro areas and cities, and alot of small towns in between. It's one of those Ohio type states where you wouldn't realize that many people live there, they are just evenly spaced.

[Manolos]

Ya. I went to music camps back in the day at Brevard and Greensboro and Greensboro is a pretty major suburb and yet it seems ridiculously small.

Im fascinated by Arizona's exponential growth. I tend to see this as a positive thing for Arizona. I wonder how Phoenix will change in the next decade or so. Especially downtown Scottsdale and downtown Tempe, both of which are thriving.

[davidals]

Interesting article, no major surprise with AZ - the two big metros are booming, but there's also a little more dispersal of population around AZ than NV, so I'd expect this trend to continue.

[Wasn't aware that NC had unseated NJ either - didn't get much press here, though we knew it was coming. The metros here are sprawly - the big 3 metros (CSAs) are all 1,000,000+, with Charlotte's over 2 mil, but in both the Triangle & Triad it's split into 5 cities adjoining across a few county lines. The population is fairly evenly dispersed around the state, with 8 cities 100,000 or larger divided into 5 CSA/MSAs around the state. A 9th city will hit 100,000 within a year or so, and 5-10 years I would estimate for the 10th; Charlotte (at 641,000) and Raleigh (346,000) are the 2 largest, with Charlotte adding 100,000 (just in the city) since 2000. Greensboro, Durham and Winston-Salem are all between 200,000 and 300,000.]

[colin]

Yeah, and it makes you wonder why Downtown Phoenix isn't thriving the same. Lack of money? Lack of interest? I don't know.

But I'm not surprised by this. I mean, we had two of the ten fastest growing cities in the country last year (although Florida had three and it's #9). Everyone's moving to Arizona!

[Manolos]

Since we are on an URBAN forum, i guess its hard to understand but to my general understanding, most people I know prefer suburbian life D:, myself included. I lived in NYC for a couple years, lived in SF and worked in Chicago downtown. ITs fun for awhile and exciting, but suburbia is sooo appealing after just a couple years.

[colin]

Yeah, I guess it's a lifestyle thing.

When I first moved to Tucson I lived near the Tucson Mall, which isn't overly suburban but certainly not urban. I hated it and moved Downtown after the 6 month lease was over. And I always lived in a somewhat urban environment in Houston. I like being able to walk to stuff like stores, restaurants and bars and being able to bike to work. But then again, I have no kids (actually, none of my neighbors have kids either).

But there are those who want urban living. That's what I meant: why are the Downtown areas of Tempe and Scottsdale doing so well but Phoenix itself has yet to really take off? I'm sure it's some sort of image thing.

[MJLO]

It's an image thing, and I maintain that it's also a competition thing, with the perimeter cities trying just as hard for the same development money. So Phoenix doesn't get it's fair share, and doesn't represent very well.

AZ for the first time is estimated to have more than 6million residents. I wonder where that puts the state in the rankings.

[Manolos]

I think at least top 15 I think we passed Tennessee and such.

[Manolos]

ranked by '06 estimated population:

State -- Population 7/1/06

California - 36,457,549

Texas - 23,507,783

New York - 19,306,183

Florida - 18,089,888

Illinois - 12,831,970

Pennsylvania - 12,440,621

Ohio - 11,478,006

Michigan - 10,095,643

Georgia - 9,363,941

North Carolina - 8,856,505

New Jersey - 8,724,560

Virginia - 7,642,884

Massachusetts - 6,437,193

Washington - 6,395,798

Indiana - 6,313,520

Arizona 6,166,318

Tennessee - 6,038,803

Missouri - 5,842,713

Maryland - 5,615,727

Wisconsin - 5,556,506

Minnesota - 5,167,101

Colorado - 4,753,377

Alabama - 4,599,030

South Carolina - 4,321,249

Louisiana - 4,287,768

Kentucky - 4,206,074

Oregon - 3,700,758

Oklahoma - 3,579,212

Connecticut - 3,504,809

Iowa - 2,982,085

Mississippi - 2,910,540

Arkansas - 2,810,872

Kansas - 2,764,075

Utah - 2,550,063

Nevada 2,495,529

New Mexico - 1,954,599

West Virginia - 1,818,470

Nebraska - 1,768,331

Idaho - 1,466,465

Maine - 1,321,574

New Hampshire - 1,314,895

Hawaii - 1,285,498

Rhode Island - 1,067,610

Montana - 944,632

Delaware - 853,476

South Dakota - 781,919

Alaska - 670,053

North Dakota - 635,867

Vermont - 623,908 6

District of Columbia - 581,530

Wyoming - 515,004

[MJLO]

16th, that's pretty good. I bet it'll only be a matter of time before it's crowding out VA.

[MJLO]

So the state is over 6 million now, it may be a long shot, but if this growth continues, do you think in the next 15 to 20 years AZ could be in the top ten? The articles state an influx of residents from California, I wonder how much of an effect incoming CA residents really have on us. Are we like the "up north" for people from CA?

[colin]

"Up north"? You mean like we're Canadians or our state is some sort of summer vacation mecca? I don't think either are true.

No way Arizona will ever be in the top 10. The quality of life in the cities is quickly eroding away and, with the housing costs eventually reaching that of California, much of the attraction will be lost before we can get anywhere close to another state. But, either way, where would we ever get the water for these people? Especially since most migrants will demand grassy lawns, wash their cars in their driveways once a week, and have a general lack of knowledge on water conservation.

Just a thought.

[MJLO]

Were the numbers released on city and metro areas? I'm kind of curious to know if Metro Phoenix is over that 4million hump yet. If Maricopa county has reached that number.

[colin]

The Daily Star ran a story on this this morning attributing it to growth in the tourism sector and affordable housing:

State's growth is fueled by jobs, tourism, housing

Oh, "and a huge influx of Californians".

But they also point out that AZ has more water than Nevada. I didn't know that, but they also mention that we have the Verde River, which is a little disconcerting because that's the only perennial, unabated river left in the state and Prescott keeps talking about tapping its headwaters.

[nowensone]

Ya. I went to music camps back in the day at Brevard and Greensboro and Greensboro is a pretty major suburb and yet it seems ridiculously small.

[convulso]

NC is like an Ohio in that it doesn't have a single dominant population area but has many smaller ones.

[MJLO]

Well tourism for as much as you guys say, still isn't that dominating of an industry in Arizona. We certainly are no Florida. At this point we aren't even a Michigan or Ohio. The growth here is solid, fueled by opportunity, as the economy grows more services are needed, the job sector gets more desperate for help, and those in the midwest offset by the fading manufacturing sector are taking not. The same is true in Vegas. Everyone who moves there are full time ressies, there's more than just gambling there. There has to be.

There are alot of states like OH and NC. I would say South Carolina is the most indicitive of this. It's just solid population thruout. It has more than 4million people in it, but it doesn't have more than a midsize metro area, and it's largest city not more than a little over 100k. But that probabally has more to do with small land area. The older cities in this country stopped expanding their borders long ago. Pretty much any state in New England . Look at Michigan, of it's 10+ million residents, more than 9 million of them live in the lower 2/3rds of the LP. It's full of midsize cities and small towns, until you get north of Midland then it's pretty much a seasonal tourist destination where the nations wealthy play for the summer.

[convulso]

Well tourism for as much as you guys say, still isn't that dominating of an industry in Arizona. We certainly are no Florida.

[colin]

I've always assumed that the tourism in the Midwestern states came from Midwesterners, whereas our tourism here comes from all over the place. Cedar Point or Mackinac Island don't hold a lot of appeal for me as summer destinations living in the Southwest, but places like the Grand Canyon, Lake Powell, and even Scottsdale and Tucson hold a special appeal for those living outside of the Southwest, enough so that people fly out, or often even drive out, here just to see them. Personally, I usually end up in New Mexico or California for my "vacations", but I take weird trips.

[MJLO]

Cedar Point or Mackinac Island don't hold a lot of appeal for me as summer destinations living in the Southwest, but places like the Grand Canyon, Lake Powell, and even Scottsdale and Tucson hold a special appeal for those living outside of the Southwest, enough so that people fly out, or often even drive out, here just to see them. Personally, I usually end up in New Mexico or California for my "vacations", but I take weird trips.

[colin]

Maybe nature boy. I do city trips as well, but I just don't go do stupid stuff like Disneyland or Sea World.

Tourists dig birds, wildlife

I see this a lot. Today I went hiking on the Pima Canyon Trail in the Catalinas. I actually got a late start (about 9:15) but was one of 5 cars in the lot at the trailhead. I hit my stopping point, turned around and met more people than I've ever seen on that trail: families, loners, couples, old women. It seemed like I hit a group every 5 minutes, which is nuts. When I got back to the lot, it was full, and about half of the cars had out-of-state plates.

People think Arizona is open, natural and wild, be it in the tacky cowboy sense or the Ed Abbey/endless spaces sense, and that's what a lot of the tourist attraction is to our state. So why are we killing this with tract homes, mines and fenced-in ranchettes? Can this non-renewable source of revenue really trump this promise of nature tourism? Or is it just short-sightedness?

[colin]

Sales fall, but Phoenix home prices rise

A further sign that Phoenix is going to crash really, really hard?

[MJLO]

It doesn't make sense. prices rise as sales fall. Isn't that opposite of how the market works? This coming from the economics major. I'm confused. What I still don't understand is, Where are all the people that are moving to Phoenix living? How can home sales plummet, while record numbers of residents are moving here? They gotta live somewhere. Are new homes just that plentiful and cheap?