Triangle Economic Forecast

[Eastwestrob]

Wake County median household income-$54,988

Mecklenburg County median household income-$50,579

Wake County median household income-$54,988

Mecklenburg County median household income-$50,579

^^^ You can say this and they can say that but it all boils down to these

[monsoon]

That article says Raleigh NC's median income is $47,878. However I believe the median income in CLT is $45,000 or there abouts. However there are 2.5x as many people in Charlotte so it's hard to say which is more affluient.

[dmccall]

How do they determine the wealthiest city? I would think Charlotte would take that crown having the worlds two wealthiest banks headquarted there. Perhaps I'm crazy, but this title seems a bit skewed.

But I'll take it!!

If you'll look at the REST of Charlotte, you'll see a LOT of bad, yucky areas.

[NoVA20176]

I would like to see some actual numbers where a comparison could be made. There was another post just made in the CLT forum where that city's median income was the 15th highest in the entire USA. I have no idea if that was true or not.

Raleigh and Charlotte do have some of the highest median incomes for "cities". I remember seeing the article you're talking about, I think it was a CNN Money piece. I think those statistics are scewed a bit though and here's why. Most weathly professionals live in the suburbs of major cities and not in the cities themselves. Philadelphia has about the same average per capita income as Raleigh, but in the suburbs of phila there are counties with an average in the 80k range. Same thing in the Washington DC area, where DC itself is about 45-50k, where as the Northern VA suburbs are in the 90's and higher. Suburban MD counties are in the 80's and 90's as well.

Aw here is the list, Forbes Ranks Raleigh ahead of DC. That is true but like I said the "Urban" suburbs of DC are double what DC is.

Top 10 Richest Cities

[monsoon]

NOVA, we already discussed that link.

[NoVA20176]

NOVA, we already discussed that link.

Sorry if I was redundant

[DanRNC]

Article on Raleigh being number 1 in the country on federal funding for eco-devo. I would suspect the majority comes from research spending.

Story

[pack-man]

Yeah, that rail project makes NO sense! I mean, why ride a train when you can commute 2 hours each direction from Clayton to RTP with a gazillion new neighbors?

I don't understand why certain statistics suggest one thing and then the statistics TTA are using doesn't seem to justify regional rail. Something isn't adding up.

[DanRNC]

There was also a story that indicated that Wake County is the fastest growing county in the U.S. If the politicians don't acknowledge this and push for the TTA we are going to be doomed as far as transit. They already stuck their heads in the sand concerning the school system growth.

Story

Story 2

[Durhamite]

The growth around here is incredible. I drive from Durham (Southpoint Mall) area to Knightdale for work. A co-worker suggested that I use backroads to get to I-540/Triangle Town Center (The Hwy 64 section of I-540 is scheduled to open in November (couldn't come sooner for me).

Anyway, the development on Fox Road and surrounding area (& Knightdale) is INSANE! The back roads were so jammed, I decided to use business 64 to I-440.

If something isn't done (mass transit, etc), the traffic is going to be miserable in 5 to 10 years at the pace this place is growing.

There was a time when Durham was the cellar dweller in terms of growth, but not anymore. It's all over the triangle and out towards Hillsborough.

[Creasy336]

The growth around here is incredible. I drive from Durham (Southpoint Mall) area to Knightdale for work. A co-worker suggested that I use backroads to get to I-540/Triangle Town Center (The Hwy 64 section of I-540 is scheduled to open in November (couldn't come sooner for me).

Anyway, the development on Fox Road and surrounding area (& Knightdale) is INSANE! The back roads were so jammed, I decided to use business 64 to I-440.

If something isn't done (mass transit, etc), the traffic is going to be miserable in 5 to 10 years at the pace this place is growing.

There was a time when Durham was the cellar dweller in terms of growth, but not anymore. It's all over the triangle and out towards Hillsborough.

I-40/85 will be a mess in the next decade.

The growth is even spreading to the small towns of Mebane and Graham in Alamance County.

[mattm]

I don't understand why certain statistics suggest one thing and then the statistics TTA are using doesn't seem to justify regional rail. Something isn't adding up.

The problem is that the FTA is making TTA change what is measured. In the past, the projected effectiveness of a project was measured by new transit riders compared to the cost of the project. More recently, the measure has been changed to "travel time savings".

Now, time savings are all fine and good, but there's really no way to measure those for road widenings, yet we spend gazillions of dollars on that anyway. Also, the outer loop project is adding up to much more than the regional rail project, but when the project was proposed there were not people living out there. All that growth has only occurred because the loop has been/is being/will be built to go there (mostly, anyway). On the other hand, TTA is not allowed to take into account for changes in growth patterns in response to regional rail.

TTA is also being required to compare itself to not one, but FOUR different bus routes of different "expressness" that all get to take advantage of the $2Billion I-40 HOV project that currently even lacks funding to finish studying it. Furthermore, it DOES show travel time savings compared to that, but the time savings are artificially clipped at 45 minutes!

What has happened is that $130Million have been invested to plan, design, and acquire property to build the project, which the FTA regional office was quite enthusiastic about, but then the project ran into the upper levels of the FTA in Washington, which are in love with the idea of Bus Rapid Transit. Since then, anything that tends to show TTA in a good light must be discounted, and anything that tends to show TTA in a poor light gets played up.

[DanRNC]

The economic forecast for the Triangle is very positive but this constant influx of people has and will continue to strain the region's infrastructure. Education took center stage this year and the nearly $1 billion bond package passed. I would say the next major hurdle is addressing transit needs.

Story

One intersting thing I noticed was that growth is being predicted in Charlotte and Wilmington as well but no mention of the Triad which was kind of surprising.

[urbanesq]

One intersting thing I noticed was that growth is being predicted in Charlotte and Wilmington as well but no mention of the Triad which was kind of surprising.

[RaleighRob]

^ You and me both. It's kinda sad, but I really don't see a place for myself there as I do in the Triangle.

[DanRNC]

I lived in the Triad for a year and would never see myself going back but could potentially come back to the Triangle in the future-maybe.

[ChiefJoJo]

The region's unemployment is holding steady at 3.8%, a figure lower than the state and national average.

[ChiefJoJo]

This could have just as easily gone in the nightlife topic, but ...

This article seems to pose a question as to whether the area's big 20/30s crowd, and their high-paying jobs and disposable income, will help reduce the strain on the local economy. I must say, I almost have felt a bit guilty lately, because, personally, my financial situation is as good as it's been in some time, while the rest of the country seems to be in dire straits. I do think the govt/university sectors do provide some stability to counteract recessionary pressures.

So are you feeling the impacts of a recession?

[Jones_]

Government employee here too...I have no fear of losing my job. Car is about to be paid off that I purchased during better global economic times...living ITB insulates me a bit from the rising price of gas in the US....locked in to a nice low mortgage rate from a refinance during the last economic slowdown......not being married, I feel pretty comfortable now or if I get married (two years in a relationship....better make up my mind soon I suppose )

[RaleighRob]

This could have just as easily gone in the nightlife topic, but ...

This article seems to pose a question as to whether the area's big 20/30s crowd, and their high-paying jobs and disposable income, will help reduce the strain on the local economy. I must say, I almost have felt a bit guilty lately, because, personally, my financial situation is as good as it's been in some time, while the rest of the country seems to be in dire straits. I do think the govt/university sectors do provide some stability to counteract recessionary pressures.

So are you feeling the impacts of a recession?

[Gard]

This could have just as easily gone in the nightlife topic, but ...

This article seems to pose a question as to whether the area's big 20/30s crowd, and their high-paying jobs and disposable income, will help reduce the strain on the local economy. I must say, I almost have felt a bit guilty lately, because, personally, my financial situation is as good as it's been in some time, while the rest of the country seems to be in dire straits. I do think the govt/university sectors do provide some stability to counteract recessionary pressures.

So are you feeling the impacts of a recession?

[DB78]

In a similar boat financial wise as the rest of you guys so far. Doing quite well lately. I'm in medical sales, which is pretty recession proof. I've always lived beneath my means too. Wife is finishing law school soon too, so we can live off of 2 salaries instead of just mine. May be moving to DC metro soon though, so cost of living will be going up (but then so will our salaries).

The Triangle never went into a housing market bubble since there's been so much land to build and redevelop for people moving here. I've been reading about the housing market for 2 years now. I could go on a long rant about it, but I'll spare you guys that. Let's just say it is not going to be pretty in many US cities, but Raleigh should be great by comparison. Hopefully the monkeys running our federal govt don't try too many bailout schemes and artificially keep home prices higher than they should be.

Raleigh will be doing quite well through this recession that we're at the beginning of. Not fantastic, but quite better than many cities.

[ncwebguy]

I'm on a government contract that will run till at least late 09... after that is fuzzy, but hoping for the best. I am paid well below industry average, but I've had a roommate (and now a wife), and a mortgage/taxes payment close to what rent would be (helped by 5.75% fixed 30 year loan) so I'm not bad off. Having the wife's second income and no kids results in even more we can save. The no kids thing may change eventually, and I hope we can stay in the current house. We don't go out to Glenwood South for drinking, but we do eat out there, F Street, etc. on average 3-4 nights a week.

Just because I'm ok, I don't think the area in general is immune to the credit crisis. This weekend we drove around south Raleigh/Garner/Clayton and saw a lot of new housing complexes with cheap houses that could fall into foreclosure if an adjustable rate mortgage were to reset.

The neighborhood of "Woodmeadow Parkway" just inside the beltline across from the Walnut Creekt softball complex felt like it could become a "suburban ghetto" hit hard by the subprime crisis. There were a lot of lots leveled for construction overgrown with weeds and several completed homes sitting empty with "for sale" or "sold" signs out front. There is a "more neighbors coming soon" sign at the NW "end" of Woodmeadow, though there wasn't any heavy equipment nearby. I hope the last houses completed are not convereted to rentals, as that could make the neighborhood worse. There already is a large apartment complex between 440 and Woodmeadow.

The same fate may come to the complex in the area bound by 40, 440, Sunnybrook, and Rock Quarry. Sunnybrook south of Rock Quarry was unviting, with no houses on it and rows of houses on the other side of a man-made berm. And another development to the west off Rock Quarry.

Olde Towne, the mega-development off Rock Quarry and New Hope will add even more housing units to the market. Though it may be a lift to the area, and is somewhat convenient to interstate exists for Jones Sausage (40) and Poole Road (440), it could flood the market at the wrong time.

I would have rather seen suburban growth here, somewhat close to the city, than Clayton, but that horse left the barn a while ago. Also along those lines, this story in the N&O shows that the suburbs aren't necessarily "safe" and one bad house has an adverse affect on the rest of the subdivision. Someone who was already not paying their mortgage (and had mental problems) had a fire in January and the remains have become an eyesore to the neighbors.

[dmccall]

I am a dentist and can attest to the fact that my business completely gasps for air the more the media talks about gas prices. The Katrina-related pipeline thing put me in a whale of debt after 3 months of horrible no-shows and cancellations. My colleagues all felt it, too.

[RaleighRob]

^ Interesting. I guess I always assumed that medical-related stuff stays stable in a recession. But it looks like people instead will just put off certain branches of it, like dentistry, orthodontics, optometry, etc, until they can loosen their purse strings some. I'll admit I have been known to delay some of those a good deal, myself.