Eastern NC population drain

[carolinaboy]

I agree with you waverider, it is uneven, some counties are getting higher quality developments than others. I didn't mean to sound combative. But I think all counties/communities are dealing with the same issues, just maybe not to the same degree.

Forgive my ignorance, but I am not familiar with the Inner Banks Creative Communities Initiative, but I will Google it to see what it's about.

[waverider]

I'm not all that familiar with it either. I read about it on Wikipedia--apparently there are six smaller towns in northeastern NC (Edenton, Hertford, Murfreesboro, Tarbor, Plymouth, and Ayden) that are collaborating to attract more knowledge workers. The website is http://www.creative-enc.com/index.cfm

[ncwebguy]

I used to live on the Outer banks and would travel to the Triangle for high school and college as US 64, one of the "roads to nowhere" was being upgraded from two to four lanes. It did little for the cities along it except maybe Williamston, but that is due more to 17 than 64.

Plymouth's tree/pulp processing facility (Weyhauser?) is it's biggest asset and liability. It provides a lot of jobs, but also pollutes the environment with a nasty smell. If research being done at NC State pans out, there can be a boom in the area's agriculture to grow raw material and industry to process it. It could also solve the pig waste/lagoon problem by converting that to energy as well.

Making the NC/VA border counties into bedroom communities would be ok if residents were taxed accordingly, but that will take some changes long time residnets might fight. When I lived in Kill Devil Hills in the late 80s/early 90s, a lot of service sector workers on mainland Currituck and points northwest. The grocery stores saw this a lot, and almost all of the garbage collectors did not live in Dare County (I volunteered one summer in the recycling center).

What can be done? Ignoring the problem is not the answer. Some communities are already like the 9th ward in New Orleans, but spread out. Large numbers of uneducated or undereducated who used to work on farms or in factories no longer have those options. There were rumors Disney would open a park on land near Swan Quarter -- its land near Orlando used to be a swamp no one wanted once upon a time. These rumors also said Disney wanted better connectivity to 95, which was the reasoning behind the 64 and 17 improvements, but Disney never came.

The population drain would be even greater if residents had the means to leave. Unfortuately, the ones who can and do leave (educated middle class) are the group of people that could help it prosper. But it is past the tipping point, and unless a new economic engine can be created (and I don't think "creative class" alone will do it), the prospects are slim.

[waverider]

that's the concern that i have....i too left the area and went to high school in the triangle (ncssm) and college in the triad (wfu), and said i would never go back. i didn't feel like there was anything there for someone like me, who wanted a more urban, fast-paced, amenity-laced life. now, i find myself wanting to go back and GIVE back, but there aren't that many job opportunities in my area for my particular field.

i realize, though, that nostalgia plays a part in my outlook. i miss the "good ole days" of growing up in the country, and while i want to see the area prosper and grow, i also want it to remain the place that i remember from my childhood. those two things don't always work well together.

[urbanvb]

Intersting conversations here. I too left NE NC (Ahoskie) for the city (VA Beach). All of my family still lives there actually and I enjoy going back to visit. I find it a nice respite from the rush of the city. Having said that, I can't see myself moving back anytime soon. The economy, at least in Ahoskie proper, seems to be worse than when I left. The 'nice' parts of town are going downhill and honestly Main Street is downright depressing. I noticed in the last few years a lot of middle class folks are moving from town and moving out into the countryside. Sometimes you will find small communities sprouting up in new places like in Winton near the river.

[waverider]

Ahoskie does seem to be in a downward slope right now. Last time I passed through, I saw that they're turning the old high school into apartments, but that's about all the development I saw. The hospital seems to be the big economic engine of the city, and it seems pretty stable as rural hospitals go, but that's about it. I heard that the city of Ahoskie basically killed a US 13 bypass around town because it would further drain revenue from the town.

Winton's new riverfront development is promising, but still limited.

[urbanvb]

The riverfront in Winton is going to be prettty large once it is built out but that may take some years. I know of several people moving there from Va Beach to retire for a slower pace of life. And I find that interesting that the old high school is going to be apartments. It must have been quite expensive to convert since they would have asbestos issues and due to the overall deterioration of the structures.

[urbanaturalist]

Ahoskie does seem to be in a downward slope right now. Last time I passed through, I saw that they're turning the old high school into apartments, but that's about all the development I saw. The hospital seems to be the big economic engine of the city, and it seems pretty stable as rural hospitals go, but that's about it. I heard that the city of Ahoskie basically killed a US 13 bypass around town because it would further drain revenue from the town.

Winton's new riverfront development is promising, but still limited.

Wow, a town in North Carolina passing up a bypass. Damn, that deserves kudos. I'm sure there are times when a bypass may be necessary, but its good that some towns see that an exit ramp ain't all that serious, but with future growth it may change. The main thing is, whether or not the counties themselves see the benefit of trans-county smart growth initiatives. People are moving to Eastern North Carolina from the cities to retire, or 2nd homes, or for bigger homes outside of metros like Hampton Roads, but specifically what type of planning have those Northeastern North Carolina counties done to respond for future growth. Is it just going to be another land rush, and when traffic, and schools, and rivers are out of sync ....THEN they (community, local bureacrats and politicians) began to sloganeer with words like "manage", "sustainable", "comprehensive county planning", and so forth.

They need to come up with plans now. Of course, the libertarian and developer personalities will come out the wood works with slogarns of their own to discredit any need for proper planning as expensive, hurtful to the economy, and restrictive. The ususual story.

[waverider]

i hadn't even thought about it, but you're right, there are a lot of towns of any size in NC that have bypasses...some for good reason (Elizabeth City's, I think, is a good thing), but others, you just have to wonder. I saw the start of the US 17 bypass around Windsor at Christmas...pretty soon, there won't be much scenery along these "scenic highways."

[ncwebguy]

At least along 64, it seems a lot of small towns are "bypassed" because it is not possible to widen the existing road to four lanes.

A lot of towns in eastern NC sprung up along trade routes, well before automobiles. The highways followed these routes from town to town, and a lot of houses and businesses built close to the two lane roads. But to make 64 four lanes for hurricane evacuation/tourist convenience, they had to go around the towns and bridged over the crossroads.

This, plus the agrarian nautre of the economies of the east has left it unprepared for the 21st century. Big city conveniences are nice, but not necessary. Having a job, however, is. My computer skills are not in demand anywhere east of 95 outside of Greenville, Wilmington, or Wilson (BB&T) and even in those cities, high tech jobs are scarce.

A lot of eggs were put in the Global Trans Park basket. When it didn't pay off, a lot of people gave up hope. The military presence near Jacksonville has had a lesser effect on the economy there than Fayetville. They have a smaller presence, but despite the ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the area has seen little benefit.

I went to NCSSM ('91) and NC State ('96) and would notice the "progress" as the ride along 64 was quicker, yet less interesting. There was a dirt track somewhere east of Willamston I think (near Roper?), but it eventually closed shortly after 64 bypassed it. Towns like Ahoskie, Columbia, etc. were "urban" back in their day but it seems time has bypassed them.

[ChiefJoJo]

^ Feeding off what you and transitman said, I wonder if the anwer isn't to try to prop up the areas with costly economic development projects, but perhaps to better integrate them with the Piedmont in a smarter way, and not through road projects, but through commuter and intercity rail such as EASTRANS, the remaining NCRR corridor to Morehead City, and the future SE NC rail service to Wilmington. I know that wouldn't be politically popular, but I do think it could provide a unique opportunity for the eastern part of the state that maybe other areas don't have.

Give people better/smarter access to the SE beaches and RTP area, and maybe that will encourage a different type of development opportunity in the cores of those cities. One other potential benefit would be that rail projects are significantly easier to get through the difficult federal/state environmental review and permitting process than say a new location US 17 freeway bypass and these days are probably more cost effective per mile, especially if they use existing or midly improved track. Once it's built, you can add capacity very easily and cheaply. Maybe in time, you would see people who work in Raleigh want to move to a more rural communty down east, telecommute a few days and take in an easy ride on the train when they need to.

Communities should need to focus on what they do best--ie, what are their assets?

As the Piedmont becomes more urbanized, perhaps there could be environmental education programs utilizing the many undisturbed wetlands and tributaries in the lowland areas near the coast. Maybe the UNC System could open satellite research campuses with grad students from all 16 campuses to study these areas and educate the public on their value.

Also, preserving their history should be of importance and could be emphasized to a much greater degree. Many smaller communities date back to pre-Revolution days, and have a rich heritage that could be marketed in a package for a sort of Eastern NC Historic Adventure Trail... state could give grants for setting up preservation trusts in various E NC towns to participate and revamp those sites and later when its up and running, you might get history buffs who would get a little pamphlet with a map of the various towns and their historic homes and sites... maybe that would lead to B&B's and other small businesses setting up near those spots... that wouldn't cost too much to fund, market and implement... maybe they could even ride a special "murder mystery train" to the towns...

What about an E. NC BBQ & ribs tour? Start a competitio for E NC BBQ joints and hold a competition each year in a different spot... Goldsboro, Kinston, Williamston, Greenville, etc

I'm just throwing out random ideas--probably wouldn't be popular, but at least would utilze the strengths those areas already possess.

[Nindec]

I fell like in many places the lack of economic development in recent decades could almost be an asset. Though they're experiencing tough times, a lot of these towns haven't been eaten alive by sprawl, leaving their built environment very conducive to harboring functional communties and a higher quality of life. Look at the places that have experienced development -- say, Greenville and Wilmington (to a much lesser degree) -- and economic success almost seems a fate almost worse than death.

It would be nice to see us try to do it right, now that we've learned from our mistakes. We don't neccesarily have to try to turn these places into the next RTP, just help them hold onto what they've already got. I think trying to turn some of these places into telecommuniting centers along EASTRANS is a great idea. There's a real opportunity for Creative Class types as well -- many of these places have block after block of beautiful historic structures that could probably be bought for pennies. If the state government would stop trying to find magic cure-alls like the Global Transpark, and start supporting more diversified projects (such as Eastrans, or more redevelopment incentives, or maybe moving out some office jobs), that would be a big help too.

No matter what happens, I think the region is due some sort of regional planning agency to not only facilitate economic development, but also make sure development actually benefits the region. We don't have to have any more Greenvilles or out-of-state landfills out there. It would be tough, but if we play it right I think this region could be a very desirable part of the state -- and largely as a result of it's having avoided the no-holds-barred progress of piedmont areas.

[davidals]

^^

Some might not be so politically popular, but some would.

The idea of satellite research campuses deserves a closer look - it strikes me as more realistic than new independent additions to the UNC system, and it could connect to the community college network as well, working with institutions already in place in E NC to do something beyond technical training. And there would be many benefits - research, tourism and preservation - in deepening the network of wildlife refuges in the area. Those facilities as it stands are not as well known as they should be; the current controversy over the Naval landing site could change that. And in both E and W NC (and the Uwharrie Mountains in the center), natural spaces will become economically beneficial as other areas of the state continue to urbanize.

Rail too, though the NC rail plan seems to also not consider a Charlotte-Wilmington link...

[iamnorthcarolina]

If you look at the raw numbers it is deceiving. Actually as a whole eastern NC is gaining population. It is mostly just happening around the larger cities. Greenville for instance is pulling population away from surrounding counties but is also looking to be a formidable player in the NC city game. Smart growth there, and I mean in the job sector, is securing one of the most economically immune markets in the state. (Health care, govt and university jobs) People move to where there are jobs. Greene County is reaping the benefits of its proximity to Greenville, mostly, and Wilson, Goldsboro and Kinston. The later being in an economic slump for the past ten years. Unfortunately for many areas, jobs have been on the decline or slow to come. An aging population in eastern nc's smaller counties are leading to much of the decline. These counties like Edgecombe and Martin don't have enough in migration or high birth rate to overcome this factor.

Wilmington is a product of interstate accesibility. The Wilmington area began a twenty year long ongoing boom beginning around 1988. Before that Wilmington had seen population decreases followed by stagnant or below par growth. For people who spout the "roads to nowhere philosophy" need to look at what has happened in Wilmington because of I-40.

The wild card is Roanoke Rapids. The amazing potential in this city, due to the new Carolina Crossroads and Advanced Vehicle Research Center, will be interesting to watch. Many new developments are happening in that area and speculative buying is rampant. I would guess Halifax and Northampton Counties will be seeing population increases within the next five years. Particularly around the city of Ronaoke Rapids.

In all I suggest that local job growth, proximity to large cities for commuting to jobs, and ocean access connected by an interstate has equaled growth for eastern North Carolina. Now their trying out destination tourism for size and it will probably work.

[ChiefJoJo]

If you look at the raw numbers it is deceiving. Actually as a whole eastern NC is gaining population. It is mostly just happening around the larger cities.

Wilmington is a product of interstate accesibility. The Wilmington area began a twenty year long ongoing boom beginning around 1988. Before that Wilmington had seen population decreases followed by stagnant or below par growth. For people who spout the "roads to nowhere philosophy" need to look at what has happened in Wilmington because of I-40.

I agree with you about overall growth, but we're talking about the areas in-between those and the coast that are struggling. I think if you ask the folks in Rocky Mount, despite what the population counts may be, you would find they need some spark to infuse economic prosperity, although as I've said, it doesn't have to be highway fed sprawl.

I agree with your statement about Wilmington and I-40, but it's an anomaly. There won't be anymore interstates constructed E of I-95 and Wilmington is essentially at the beach. Has Warsaw benefitted from being along I-40? Probably 95% of drivers heading SE on 40 are destined for Wilmington, so I'd submit that I-40 essentially functions as a giant bypass of SE NC and has provided little benefit to communties in it's path other than metro-Wilmington.

Additionally, highway construction is not the cost effective way to deal with this problm as construction costs have risen tremendously. New location freeways can reach around $50M/mile, so I would think that type of expenditure should be reserved for the most congested areas of the state first. Again, if leaders could think outside of the box and team up with other entities (as they have begun to do) I'm sure there are some innovative solutions to help fuel prosperity.

[urbanvb]

Wikipedia states American Demographics Magazine projects the city of Greenville is among the top ten places for growth rate of both population and employment over the next 20 years. I was quite surprised to hear this. I wonder what is driving such growth? I would suspect ECU and Pitt County Hospital as well as influx of northerners to the region are contributing.

wikipedia article

[Lithuania]

^I would say you are correct on the growth factors. Both institutions are growing...especially the hospital. With the new cardiovascular center and the potential dental school, PCMH is definitely changing dramatically.

You can definitely see the growth by all the new subdivisions sprouting up.

[redjeep77]

^I would say you are correct on the growth factors. Both institutions are growing...especially the hospital. With the new cardiovascular center and the potential dental school, PCMH is definitely changing dramatically.

You can definitely see the growth by all the new subdivisions sprouting up.

The dental school isn't potential anymore. It's online and scheduled to start in 5 years.

[ChiefJoJo]

Communities should need to focus on what they do best--ie, what are their assets?

As the Piedmont becomes more urbanized, perhaps there could be environmental education programs utilizing the many undisturbed wetlands and tributaries in the lowland areas near the coast. Maybe the UNC System could open satellite research campuses with grad students from all 16 campuses to study these areas and educate the public on their value.

Also, preserving their history should be of importance and could be emphasized to a much greater degree. Many smaller communities date back to pre-Revolution days, and have a rich heritage that could be marketed in a package for a sort of Eastern NC Historic Adventure Trail... state could give grants for setting up preservation trusts in various E NC towns to participate and revamp those sites and later when its up and running, you might get history buffs who would get a little pamphlet with a map of the various towns and their historic homes and sites... maybe that would lead to B&B's and other small businesses setting up near those spots... that wouldn't cost too much to fund, market and implement... maybe they could even ride a special "murder mystery train" to the towns...

What about an E. NC BBQ & ribs tour? Start a competitio for E NC BBQ joints and hold a competition each year in a different spot... Goldsboro, Kinston, Williamston, Greenville, etc

I'm just throwing out random ideas--probably wouldn't be popular, but at least would utilze the strengths those areas already possess.

This bird watching trail is just the type of ecotourism I was talking about. Let's use some of our natural assets to our advantage insetead of trying to develop like the Piedmont.

[urbanaturalist]

I agree we need more reasons to conserve land, and possibly make profit from it. However, sometimes I think its forgotten that the monetary values of natural resources should be more accurately studied.

I wrote on another thread that possibly having counties work together to be Greenways, especially near tributaries, rivers and wetlands, would be away to stifle development and protect land in Eastern North Carolina and statewide.

Not to mention the fact that the whole 1 million Land Conservation proposal hasn't recieved much funding or enough support.

[NcSc74]

Ahhh the good ole bobwhite. I used to try and whistle its call but couldn't quite get it. As far as eastern NC is concerned I think the state gov has gone about it all wrong. The writing was all over the wall as far as tobbacco and the Global Transpark...well we know what happened to that. IMO things could be alot differnet with eastern portion getting a fair share and the big metros getting the urban funding they need. A plan to replace manufacturing jobs and tobbacco farming needs to be in place. Also funding vocational schools to educate those who have lost those jobs so they can move in to the information age. Next pinpoint focus cities that have positive growth trends and funnel the majority of the funds earmarkded for the east to these cities so that highway and infrastructure money are used in a more efficient manner. Lets face it the east does not the density to require piles of highway funds. So if the focus was on 3 or 4 cities then the other metro areas of the state would get the emergency funding needed to fix their urban problems. Kinda sounds like herding but essentially it is opening up these cities to more oppurtunity while giving those citizens looking to stay close to home the amenities they desire in other cities. New Bern, Greenville and Wilmington would be my first tier eastern cities that would get the extra focus. In doing so projects that take up much needed money in not so dense and indurstrial places could be used by a greater number of people. Also this would in fact encourage conservation because instead building roads and focusing on a whole region just 3 or 4 cities would see the greatest number of growth saving habitat that otherwise would be in danger. I did not include Fayetteville because the economic engine of Fort Bragg/Pope AFB kinda of sets it apart. Meaning that cities growth will always be tied to federal influx of workers and not so much from inter-county migration.

[JeffC]

I grew up in Washington, which is another place that seems to be something of an oasis in the pervading sense of blight in Eastern NC. Washington benefits from (1) beautiful waterfront city that attracts rec. boating and associated tourism; (2) proximity to Greenville allows it to serve as a bedroom community of sorts...I guess it's no further from Greenville than downtown Raleigh is from, say, Wake Forest or Clayton. The main deficiency I see in small towns like Washington is a lack of political leadership with foresight who realize that you have to spend money (in the form of government revenues to fund the services and improvements to set your community apart from others) to make money (growth). Washington has done a good job of the 2nd redevelopment of its waterfront (after one of those now in-explicable 1960s urban renewal projects where they redirected the entire focus of downtown away from the river by clearing all the warehouses and wharves and replacing with acres of asphalt parking lots), and there is some new waterfront condo construction going on. I don't think the completion of the 17 bypass will impact the town...it will take away the limited truck/commercial traffic that uses 17 as a through route, but the tourists who use it as a scenic alternative to I-95 will still get off the bypass and explore the town.

[NcSc74]

I grew up in Washington, which is another place that seems to be something of an oasis in the pervading sense of blight in Eastern NC. Washington benefits from (1) beautiful waterfront city that attracts rec. boating and associated tourism; (2) proximity to Greenville allows it to serve as a bedroom community of sorts...I guess it's no further from Greenville than downtown Raleigh is from, say, Wake Forest or Clayton. The main deficiency I see in small towns like Washington is a lack of political leadership with foresight who realize that you have to spend money (in the form of government revenues to fund the services and improvements to set your community apart from others) to make money (growth). Washington has done a good job of the 2nd redevelopment of its waterfront (after one of those now in-explicable 1960s urban renewal projects where they redirected the entire focus of downtown away from the river by clearing all the warehouses and wharves and replacing with acres of asphalt parking lots), and there is some new waterfront condo construction going on. I don't think the completion of the 17 bypass will impact the town...it will take away the limited truck/commercial traffic that uses 17 as a through route, but the tourists who use it as a scenic alternative to I-95 will still get off the bypass and explore the town.

It is a shame that urban renewal strikes cities of all sizes. It would have been great to see those warehouses converted to apartments and condos. Also the possibilities for those wharves to be turned in to some kind of park or even a market makes me shake my head. Noone could have known that those structures would be the "in" thing nowadays. I imagine that most sound side cities in the state went through this same type of thing. So much potential yet there very little vision.

[JeffC]

It is a shame that urban renewal strikes cities of all sizes. It would have been great to see those warehouses converted to apartments and condos. Also the possibilities for those wharves to be turned in to some kind of park or even a market makes me shake my head. Noone could have known that those structures would be the "in" thing nowadays. I imagine that most sound side cities in the state went through this same type of thing. So much potential yet there very little vision.

I can't really fault them, though...who wanted to live in a converted warehouse in the 1960s?? That was the very height of the "ranch house in the suburbs" mania. Like pedestrian malls, it was an idea that seemed good at the time, but turned out to be horribly wrong. Now, cities that tear down old, high quality industrial construction TODAY could, I think, be accused of lack of vision.

It makes me wonder, what actions regarding city renewal are WE taking TODAY that will be viewed 40 years from now as ultimately as wrong headed as the urban renewal urban demolition programs of the 1960s...

[davidals]

New Bern, Greenville and Wilmington would be my first tier eastern cities that would get the extra focus.

Looking at the census data and the N&O article focusing on the fastest-growing US and NC cities today; there are a few interesting changes down east:

Wilmington's hitting 100,000 was after the cutoff date for those estimates (July 2006), thus it wasn't commented on in any of the press releases. If that 100,000 is accurate, that would give Wilmington an increase of ~5,000 in a years' time; the 8th city in NC over 100k. I didn't calculate the percentage of increase; it would be 4th or 5th fastest-growing (of cities over 50,000) in NC. High Point, BTW, is about 2300 away from becoming the 9th NC city to hit 100k.

New Bern is - as of 7-06 - up to 27,650, with increases of a little below 1000 a year for the last few years. About the same gains per year in Elizabeth City (19,056) and Rocky Mount (57,057). Wilson aded about 400 people.

Greenville is (as of these latest estimates) 72,052 - about 600 away from overtaking Asheville as 10th largest city, though some pending annexations in Asheville might alter that for the time being. Greenville's gain of ~3000 people, would also make it a candidate for 4th or 5th fastest-growing NC city.

Goldsboro, Jacksonville, Kinston & Fayetteville all saw slight declines.