Percentages

[New Name]

There are so many big ideas being thrown around for urban projects in the current boom...and everyone has an opinion about which will never get past the proposal stage. So how about we put it all together, and you veterans step up and drop some knowledge.

List as many projects as you can think of and give us an honest percentage (1-100) of the likelyhood that they will actual come to fruition. No indepth analysis, just a number (or maybe a side note if you think it will be scaled down).

[atlrvr]

Here is my best-guess analysis.

Any building currently vertical (above ground) 95%

Wachovia Office (95%)

Wachovia Condo (90%)

Ritz-Carlton (95%)

BofA Office Building (90%)

Vue (85%)

210 Trade - some version (70%)

210 Trade - as advertised (35%)

Aloft (65%)

Concourse (80%)

Novare Condo #1 (80%)

Novare Twelve (75%)

Novare Condo #2 (65%)

Novare Office Building (70%)

Citadin Phase I (60%)

Citadin Phase II & III (35%)

300 Tryon (70%)

Berkman Tower (25%)

NASCAR Tower (85%)

500 W Trade (45)

[rockhilljames]

Park: 20% (what?! You mean it's going up!!)

[Miesian Corners]

atlrvr, why only 70% on the Novare office tower? I was under the impression that Duke needs the space badly and had basically pre-leased the entire thing.

[atlrvr]

Because Duke is flaky, and Novare hasn't done a new construction office building....though I think I heard that Trinity was going to do the office buidling....but then again, Trinity hasn't done a downtown office building, and their 500 W Trade project has been quiet for months now. All that said, I still think it is likely to happen.

As far as 210 Trade as advertised, I was talking more about fit and finishing and amenities rather than overall scope of project changes.

[atlrvr]

Here is my best-guess analysis.

Any building currently vertical (above ground) 95%

Wachovia Office (95%)

Wachovia Condo (90%)

Ritz-Carlton (95%)

BofA Office Building (90%)

Vue (85%)

210 Trade - some version (70%)

210 Trade - as advertised (35%)

Aloft (65%)

Concourse (80%)

Novare Condo #1 (80%)

Novare Twelve (75%)

Novare Condo #2 (65%)

Novare Office Building (70%)

Citadin Phase I (60%)

Citadin Phase II & III (35%)

300 Tryon (70%)

Berkman Tower (25%)

NASCAR Tower (85%)

500 W Trade (45)

[fortyniner]

Wachovia Office (99%)

Wachovia Condo (96%)

Ritz-Carlton (99%)

BofA Office Building (98%)

Vue (90%)

210 Trade - as advertised (87%)

Aloft (60%)

Sierra Hotel (39%)

Novare Condo #1 (99%)

Novare Twelve (92%)

Novare Condo #2 (66% - 2010)

Novare Office Building (98%)

Citadin All Phases (10%)

300 S.Tryon Condos(95%)

300 S. Tryon Office Building (95%)

Encore (85%)

NASCAR Tower (99%)

500 W Trade (15%)

One Charlotte (82%)

Trump Condo/Hotel Tower (55%)

Trump Office Tower (55%)

631 N. Tryon Office Tower (88%)

Condos at Spirit Square (58%)

Royal Court Condos (15%)

W. Trade Transit Center Tower (30%)

[Andyc545]

Why is everyone putting The Vue higher than 210 Trade? Now if you look the skyline, there is only one of these that is partially built and is packed on a daily basis with construction. Interesting....

Also interesting how Trump surpased One Charlotte. I do think because of Encore that One Charlotte was punched below the belt, but I would certainly think that the percentage would be higher than Trump... Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if Trump sees what is taking place with Encore and the out-of-box thinking, and it tempts Trump even more. Here's mine:

Wachovia Office (99%)

Wachovia Condo (90%)

Ritz-Carlton (95%)

BofA Office Building (95%)

Vue (70%)

210 Trade (95%)

Aloft (90%)

Sierra Hotel (50%)

Novare Condo #1 (95%)

Novare Twelve (95%)

Novare Office Building (95%)

Citadin All Phases (20%)

300 S.Tryon Condos(93%)

300 S. Tryon Office Building (93%)

Encore (95%)

NASCAR Tower (99%)

One Charlotte (85%)

Trump Condo/Hotel Tower (65%)

Trump Office Tower (65%)

Royal Court Condos (30%)

[atlrvr]

As far as why I place 210 Trade lower, it's because I heard from a reliable source that as of a couple weeks ago, financing had not been secured for 210 Trade. As far as their current progress, I can't speculate as to whether that is self-funded for the time being, or if financing has indeed been wrapped up, but when I hear things like this from this source in particular, it gives me concern. Also, it appears that they may give people the option to walk away from thier contract. I don't know if they will, but apparantly it has been considered. If they did, I would think they realize that the initial units were sold too cheaply, and that they have too many investors.

Just my $.02.

[rockhilljames]

I'll take a stab at it!

Wachovia Office (101%)

Wachovia Condo (50%)

Ritz-Carlton (101%)

BofA Office Building (101%)

Vue (65%)

210 Trade (90%)

Aloft (90%)

Sierra Hotel (70%)

Novare Condo #1 (101%)

Novare Twelve (90%)

Novare Office Building (101%)

Citadin All Phases (10%)

300 S.Tryon Condos(80%)

300 S. Tryon Office Building (80%)

Encore (50%)

NASCAR Tower (101%)

One Charlotte (50%)

Trump Condo/Hotel Tower (30%)

Trump Office Tower (30%)

Royal Court Condos (10%)

[A2]

Sad to see so many put Royal Courts at such a low percentage. When I was looking for a condo, that was the one that I actually came closest to buying. Such an incredible location!

A2