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tamias6

Light at the end of the tunnel?

Given the present condition of Michigan's economy, do you think that there will ever be a recovery.   62 members have voted

  1. 1. Do you think Michigan's economy will ever recover?

    • Yes
      58
    • No
      4
  2. 2. If you voted yes above, how long do you think the recovery will take.

    • 1-5 years
      19
    • 5-10 years
      23
    • 10-15 years
      11
    • greater than 15 years
      7
    • It will never recover
      2

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28 posts in this topic

I'm getting fed up with the bad economic conditions Michigan is in now. After hearing the Governor's State of the State, I'm again confronted with the question: Will Michigan ever recover and if so how long will it take?

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This isn't direct at you Tamias

I don't get it. First I hear the economy is doing great, next I hear this. Is it that Michigan is in a bubble of despair? The President and any ass on CNBC/Fox News says the economy is going well and strong.

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Economies can do great, all the while you're workers can be increasingly less well off and more financially insecure. It seems to be a myth that a great economy means a healthy and vibrant workforce. The economy is doing great...for some, but the working class isn't benefitting from this economic success.

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haha it's not quite as ominous as that sounds guys. and by that I mean you can keep your butter churns in the attic for now.

Michigan will recover, Michigan spent the last 60 years over reliant on a single economic sector, that until the last 25 years had no significant competition. Couple that with the six figure salaries of the uneducated workforce, what you end up with is an economic bubble. Well guess what, the bubble burst, and it doesn't take a genious to see it. What made Michigan so far ahead of the rest of us, is now the boulder tied to it's neck, sinking in water. What made Michigan great is now changing, and while The automobile industry will forever be apart of Michigan one way or another, but it is now making a bumpy transition into the services sector, that could give it sustainability for decades to come.

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This isn't direct at you Tamias

I don't get it. First I hear the economy is doing great, next I hear this. Is it that Michigan is in a bubble of despair? The President and any ass on CNBC/Fox News says the economy is going well and strong.

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I voted yes of course, but not for 10 - 15 years. As I mentioned in the SOS address, we're a little more buffered here from the constant barrage of bad news coming out of Detroit. I don't know if I could handle it if I lived over there (I'd probably move). But here are some sobering stats for you. For Michigan to feel like it's in full recovery (full confidence restored, economic engine consistently churning out new jobs, all jobs lost in recession replaced by new jobs) it will have to at least get back to the employment levels it was at previously.

This is what the Michigan employment statistics look like today, which appears to be leveling off in the trough:

383681681_ee7939e553_o.jpg

If Michigan can turn the ship around to normal levels of employment growth (1%/year or better), then this is what the graph would look like and when we would feel full recovery/growth mode in 2016. I mean, does anyone foresee anything that could possibly put Michigan's employment growth at a higher rate than that, considering we're probably still going to see manufacturing losses over the next 10 years?

383710576_8dd5973185_o.jpg

Here's the Grand Rapids picture:

383693216_aef6c231fa_o.jpg

And when I think we'll feel like we're in full recovery/growth mode again:

383693217_0356b91923_o.jpg

Keep in mind that my extrapolations require that NOTHING happens to the Michigan economy bigger than what we've seen already, or that nothing happens to the national economy, and that we don't get mired into giant world war. The big question is how much will the overall Michigan economy affect West Michigan.

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I agree that it will recover because as long as the US economic foundation remains a daily exercise in capatalism. Great minds will always be coming up with new ideas for services, inventions, ect! The recovery IMHO is directly linked to the level of support by which we can support those ideas ect. That said, I am disturbed by an article in the GR Press the other day basically forecasting the end of the middle class. It stated the perfect storm of the US woeful performance in education, the increase in immigration with zero or very little education - and what do you have -> a collapse. As business leaders, we need to do our part in making sure that all employees, from top to bottom, are being paid as great a wage as possible without jeopardizing the organization long-term (i.e. auto industry). I agree wholeheartly - you can't pay a hi-lo driver $100k and then cry the sky is falling when that business model collapses. It is the never-ending struggle to find that balance. Good business means having more people who can afford your product or services!

Bottom line is each and every one of us are completely accountable to our own economy. In spite of Jen's performance, whether we like it or not, we need to figure out a way to overcome all of the obstacles. So the economic paradigm remains - do we buy into the JMK economic theory "in the long-run we are dead" or do we figure this thing out and pursue unbelievable ideas for our future?

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One thing we have going for us is the Great Lakes. All those people moving to Phoenix will feel really silly once they can't afford water anymore! :)

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This isn't direct at you Tamias

I don't get it. First I hear the economy is doing great, next I hear this. Is it that Michigan is in a bubble of despair? The President and any ass on CNBC/Fox News says the economy is going well and strong.

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the economy could recover but it wont be the same. Michigan will never be what it wonce was ranked near the top in income and low unemployment. Now near the middle in income and high unemployemnt. There are so many other states that are factors now that were not in the 60s and Mi will never recover from that. But will a crap in industries and smarter growth, I think the bleeding can stop but more manufacturing job will still be lost. btw I didn't vote

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I think I get it. The news media, especially in GR with 4 network stations, fall all over themselves to be "first with the worst". They emphacise(sp?) the negative over and over and over. I'm surprised that poll results show 100% agreement that the state will recover :shok:

PS: Can somebody tell me how spell check works on this board?

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haha it's not quite as ominous as that sounds guys. and by that I mean you can keep your butter churns in the attic for now.

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Hopefully alternative energy sources will have been found and taped into before 2060 for the sake of maintaining a global economy It may be hurting Michigan and the US at the time being. But it has risen allot of people around the world from all out poverty. If what you are saying comes to pass, people that are getting a taste of a better life thanks to a global economy would be put right back into poverty because like you said an 1860's based economies are heavily localized which means healthy areas would stay wealthy and poor areas would stay poor areas since the benefits of prosperity would not be able to filter into areas that need them while the wealthy areas would be isolated from the negative effects of impoverished areas. In short an 1860's based economy would be valued only by the upper crust while rendered worthless to the rest of us.

Didn't mean it to sound ominous, just bring some perspective of time. I see the rise of the American manufacturing ecomony, and of the middle class, and the current unraveling of both as a 100-year chapter in a 400 to 500 year-story. I happen to think 2060 will look more like 1860 than 1960.

Why? The petroleum age will be at its end, and it'll be prohibitively expensive to exploit cheap labor one place and ship goods half way around the world. Economies will revert to being more local, and that's a good thing for Michiigan given the natural benefits of its location --most especially as AlexKeaton points out, fresh water.

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About as well as Microsoft, i.e. it doesn't.

Seriously, some type into a spell-checking word processing program, then cut & paste.

emphasize is the correct spelling

[jumbo shrimp! military intelligence! white chocolate! Microsoft Works!]

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In short an 1860's based economy would be valued only by the upper crust while rendered worthless to the rest of us.

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I'm getting fed up with the bad economic conditions Michigan is in now. After hearing the Governor's State of the State, I'm again confronted with the question: Will Michigan ever recover and if so how long will it take?

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2 GR businesses to expand

Some good news, a half-step forward, but unfortunatley, it seems like there are still too many steps going backwards.

I wonder thought, if GM did buy Chrysler

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There's no way GM would buy Chrysler. They're selling off a bunch of their other divisions, why would they pick up a big unprofitable one?

rivegauche, that 2020 estimation is about what I figured for the State, and I'm not even a high-priced consultant.

383710576_8dd5973185_o.jpg

Good thing my full recovery estimate for GR is 2010 or 2011.

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Of all this talk of economic recovery, I must admit my own personal economic recovery has taken two years (2005-2007) and is now in full swing again :) So perhaps my views on the recovery are reflecting more on my own experiences then on the state as a whole.

I figure the state is already recovering. I don't think it will be too long, 2011 at the latest. My guess though is 2009.

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There's a real good piece in today's NY Times (2/18) in the magazine section about Toyota, and what makes them tick. One would hope the folks in the Ren Center/Dearborn/Auburn Hills might give it a read.

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Looking up. For me at least.

After 16 months of pounding the pavement,

I got a job today. A new career, actually.

Best of luck to all of you still looking. Don't

give up. There may be lots of layoffs in the

area but there is still plenty of turnover.

John

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Looking up. For me at least.

After 16 months of pounding the pavement,

I got a job today. A new career, actually.

Best of luck to all of you still looking. Don't

give up. There may be lots of layoffs in the

area but there is still plenty of turnover.

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