The Promenade At Chenal

[Architect]

If I recall about a year ago you didn't think we were in a recession, that the jury was still out on how bad the economy really is and that fuel prices were going to be the big problem. Well so much for those thoughts. High fuel prices came and went. The jury came in and darn near voted a depression.

You obviously think that our current problems are not the most important ones we face. So what are the other reasons?

If I may quote myself, I said I didn't think those problems would have a LONG TERM impact on a super regional development in Little Rock. I didn't say these weren't a (current) problem. The economy continually cycles. It always has.

The "other reasons" it might not happen are literally infinite. I wasn't trying to imply there would be some greater problem.

And for the record, we were NOT in a recession last year (in Arkansas).

[EJC]

If I recall about a year ago you didn't think we were in a recession, that the jury was still out on how bad the economy really is and that fuel prices were going to be the big problem. Well so much for those thoughts. High fuel prices came and went. The jury came in and darn near voted a depression.

You obviously think that our current problems are not the most important ones we face. So what are the other reasons?

Recessions come and go. Do you really think that will play into the viability of new developments long term? ....I mean...basically...because of this recession we're destined forever to our current state...

But again...this is a thread about a nice new development, which apparently is finally going to see a DSW soon.

Edited June 26, 2009 by EJC

[bchris02]

In reality if it wasn't for the flooding rains in March and April of 2008 delaying this development it would probably be packed now with stores like Apple, Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie, and all the other new-to-market stores that were planned. However, the rains made a sloppy mess of the place and it got delayed into the fall, when most of the planned tenants decided to pull the plug.

[LRU1967]

If I may quote myself, I said I didn't think those problems would have a LONG TERM impact on a super regional development in Little Rock. I didn't say these weren't a (current) problem. The economy continually cycles. It always has.

The "other reasons" it might not happen are literally infinite. I wasn't trying to imply there would be some greater problem.

And for the record, we were NOT in a recession last year (in Arkansas).

To be precise, your post I referred to was made on the Alltel topic in June, 08.

I applaud your optimism, from your post I gather that you see our current economic situation as a SHORT TERM problem. My opinion is that we have dug a very deep hole, which is going to take years to climb out of. You're certainly correct that the "economy continually cycles". But these aren't regular predictable cycles, the great depression was a cycle as were all the other panics, recessions and depressions in our history. I think we have come very close to falling into a depression and depending on how the huge consumer debt is liquidated we might still. For a super regional development to be viable you must have a lot of people with a lot of disposable income. With a tightening credit card market, increasing unemployment and a higher savings rate where are these big spending consumers going to come from?

Also, years ago it was a common saying that Arkansas could build a wall around our borders and we would do just fine as we had all that we needed right here. It was wrong then and to think that the rest of the country might be in a recession but we weren't just ignores the fact that we're all in this together.

[LRU1967]

Recessions come and go. Do you really think that will play into the viability of new developments long term? ....I mean...basically...because of this recession we're destined forever to our current state...

But again...this is a thread about a nice new development, which apparently is finally going to see a DSW soon.

Yes recessions come and go. They are all different in their causes and their length. I believe this one came close to turning into a depression and will take a good long time to be worked through. Short-term and Long-term are imprecise terms. What do you think is Short-term. one year, two, maybe five?

I sure don't think that a shoe store coming to town is going to be a big economic boost.

[adman0468]

I sure don't think that a shoe store coming to town is going to be a big economic boost.

No, a shoe store isn't going to be a big economic boost by itself, but this is a pretty big name coming to LR and to a very underdeveloped shopping center. DSW is large and serves as a sort-of anchor for that end of the development. Traffic in the center should definitely increase.

Much has been said on here about several of the tenants having clauses that allow them to hold off building until a particular store opens. While we don't know what that store is, I think it could be DSW. If so, will that finally spur the others on?

And bchris02, that's an interesting observation you make about the rains. I hadn't thought about that, but it would have certainly gotten the center much more momentum. Of course, they were announcing plans for several years before they finally started, so those delays cost them as well.

[turboturtle]

To be precise, your post I referred to was made on the Alltel topic in June, 08.

I applaud your optimism, from your post I gather that you see our current economic situation as a SHORT TERM problem. My opinion is that we have dug a very deep hole, which is going to take years to climb out of. You're certainly correct that the "economy continually cycles". But these aren't regular predictable cycles, the great depression was a cycle as were all the other panics, recessions and depressions in our history. I think we have come very close to falling into a depression and depending on how the huge consumer debt is liquidated we might still. For a super regional development to be viable you must have a lot of people with a lot of disposable income. With a tightening credit card market, increasing unemployment and a higher savings rate where are these big spending consumers going to come from?

Also, years ago it was a common saying that Arkansas could build a wall around our borders and we would do just fine as we had all that we needed right here. It was wrong then and to think that the rest of the country might be in a recession but we weren't just ignores the fact that we're all in this together.

I agree with LRU1067. I think the American way of life prior to this recession and post this recession will be profoundly altered. I'm not calling for doom and gloom, nor is LRU1967. In the past few months, as I have talked to folks in the finance industry during the process of closing on two house, I have consistently heard both in LR, AR and Richmond, VA that the rules have changed. This is meant both literally and figuratively.

Many in the financial industry believe we are headed for more consolidation in their industry. There will eventually be 3 to 5 banks in the US. This is similar to Canada.

While the economic free-fall has ceased, the economy has still been worsening, albeit at a slower rate, a rate that seems to be "in-control." There is another shoe that still must drop, before this current cycle turns back towards an improving economy. The Fed is going to have to start raising interest rates. I don't know the appropriate timing of this, but the metaphor I heard to describe it was; "It will be like taking away the punch bowl, just as the party is starting." In other words it will be unpopular.

We really can't judge the recovery until 3 to 6 months after this begins to happen.

With regard to a large retail development in the Central Arkansas area, take the date of the 1st legitimate proposal and add 10 to 15 years. If a proposal came down today, ground-breaking would occur sometime in 2018 to 2023. My guess is that the first legitimate proposal (hopefully not from Simon) will not occur until after the 2010 census. It is likely to be something outside the LR City limits. By my methodology it will be 2021 to 2025 before anything new AND large happens in Central Arkansas. In the meantime, I believe Park Avenue and the Promenade will develop and continue to develop. Also, I believe the Main Street corridor will be developed between 2010 and 2020.

Edited June 27, 2009 by turboturtle

[EJC]

Yes recessions come and go. They are all different in their causes and their length. I believe this one came close to turning into a depression and will take a good long time to be worked through. Short-term and Long-term are imprecise terms. What do you think is Short-term. one year, two, maybe five?

I sure don't think that a shoe store coming to town is going to be a big economic boost.

Long term certain is more than a few years, I would would imagine that economic growth will occur again in less than 5 years. So there's certainly room to think that retail options will exist in the next 10 yrs.

I sure do think the shoe store coming to Promenade will boost the center...which is what this thread is about.

Edited June 27, 2009 by EJC

[Architect]

I agree with LRU1067. I think the American way of life prior to this recession and post this recession will be profoundly altered. I'm not calling for doom and gloom, nor is LRU1967. In the past few months, as I have talked to folks in the finance industry during the process of closing on two house, I have consistently heard both in LR, AR and Richmond, VA that the rules have changed. This is meant both literally and figuratively.

Alright guys, let me further elaborate. I don't disagree with the current assessment...the economy's underpinning has been fundamentally altered, but I think for the better. I concur with your points that in many ways, things won't be the same. BUT THAT'S GOOD...at least relative to the issues of the unsustainable consumer spending that was driving our economy, the low savings rate, and the foreign currency holdings that (were?) underwriting our spending spree...and something had to change with that. Long term, consumer spending has to decrease, personal savings must increase (and signs are that this is changing...hopefully permanently), and the U.S. needs to reinvigorate our industrial and technological base. Here's to hoping that our penalty for misbehaving won't be too painful.

So, back on topic....will these issues affect the matter at hand regarding a new, super-regional development? Maybe. But back to my original point: I don't think long-term that these issues are related in THIS market. I think the fact that we have over-capacity, that the market is saturated with 3-4 mid-sized developments will have much more to do, long-term, with when something will happen. But you're right LRU1967, I am an optimist!

[LRU1967]

Architect I agree with your analysis. If we survive this crisis I think we'll come out a stronger, smarter nation.

Edited June 28, 2009 by LRU1967

[VistaLakes01]

No, a shoe store isn't going to be a big economic boost by itself, but this is a pretty big name coming to LR and to a very underdeveloped shopping center. DSW is large and serves as a sort-of anchor for that end of the development. Traffic in the center should definitely increase.

Much has been said on here about several of the tenants having clauses that allow them to hold off building until a particular store opens. While we don't know what that store is, I think it could be DSW. If so, will that finally spur the others on?

And bchris02, that's an interesting observation you make about the rains. I hadn't thought about that, but it would have certainly gotten the center much more momentum. Of course, they were announcing plans for several years before they finally started, so those delays cost them as well.

I think in these economic times there are a lot "different" anchor options than we are used to seeing in the past. DSW could certainly be considered an anchor, a movieplex could be an anchor, even a restaurant such as Cheescake Factory could be considered an anchor, or a Barnes and Noble Superstore, Old Navy, Super Target, Best Buy, even a large gym such as LA Fitness can anchor a shopping center these days. In Orlando we have one floor stand-alone type JCPenney stores opening in some centers that look identical to Kolhs', with shopping carts and all-front of store check outs. We just had a new regional center open at I-4 and US 27 in Haines City (suburban) and the major stores that have opened so far are Dick's Sporting Goods (our first), one-level JCPenney, Target, Kohls, Belk all of which are almost identical on the inside. Also a Best Buy. It looks like there are several acres of the project that are undeveloped, I don't know if they are for more retail or apartments, it was probably tough just getting this much of the center opened. I think things will be different after this recession, that most retail will be more "budget" oriented, much like in Europe or Australia where it is not uncommon to see KMart as the anchor of a nice mall. If you look at the set up of the center at the following website: http://www.wintergardenvillage.com/shopping.html , it seems like anything new retail wise that has opened lately has been very similar to this set up. A "main street" with some shops and restaurants and then a big "U" shaped center surrounding it with the larger retailers. I believe Simon (I know Little Rock has some sort of fued with them) developed the first center of it's type here in Orlando, called Waterford Lakes Town Center, which was supposed to be an enclosed mall when it was first announced. This is the floorplan of that development and most regional centers with the exception of Mall at Millenia that have opened over the past few years have been very similar:

http://www.simon.com/mall/directory.aspx?ID=394#

[VistaLakes01]

I think in these economic times there are a lot "different" anchor options than we are used to seeing in the past. DSW could certainly be considered an anchor, a movieplex could be an anchor, even a restaurant such as Cheescake Factory could be considered an anchor, or a Barnes and Noble Superstore, Old Navy, Super Target, Best Buy, even a large gym such as LA Fitness can anchor a shopping center these days. In Orlando we have one floor stand-alone type JCPenney stores opening in some centers that look identical to Kolhs', with shopping carts and all-front of store check outs. We just had a new regional center open at I-4 and US 27 in Haines City (suburban) and the major stores that have opened so far are Dick's Sporting Goods (our first), one-level JCPenney, Target, Kohls, Belk all of which are almost identical on the inside. Also a Best Buy. It looks like there are several acres of the project that are undeveloped, I don't know if they are for more retail or apartments, it was probably tough just getting this much of the center opened. I think things will be different after this recession, that most retail will be more "budget" oriented, much like in Europe or Australia where it is not uncommon to see KMart as the anchor of a nice mall. If you look at the set up of the center at the following website: http://www.wintergardenvillage.com/shopping.html , it seems like anything new retail wise that has opened lately has been very similar to this set up. A "main street" with some shops and restaurants and then a big "U" shaped center surrounding it with the larger retailers. I believe Simon (I know Little Rock has some sort of fued with them) developed the first center of it's type here in Orlando, called Waterford Lakes Town Center, which was supposed to be an enclosed mall when it was first announced. This is the floorplan of that development and most regional centers with the exception of Mall at Millenia that have opened over the past few years have been very similar:

http://www.simon.com/mall/directory.aspx?ID=394#

This is an article about Posner Park that I just visited which is the newest regional center in the area:

Printed on page R9

Target Opens Doors at New Posner Park Center

By MIKE GROGAN

The Reporter

Published: Thursday, March 20, 2008 at 12:01 a.m.

MIKE GROGAN {sodEmoji.|} REPORTER photos

EMPLOYEES OF THE NEW TARGET STORE at Posner Park gather during the grand opening for a ribbon-cutting ceremony. Target is the first store to be up and running full time at the huge shopping center and multipurpose development on the old Baseball City site.

FOUR CORNERS {sodEmoji.|} They came, they saw

[VistaLakes01]

If you go to Glimcher :Properties website and pull up Dayton Mall, you will see that that mall has a DSW as an anchor.

[LIT uPP]

This may be a case of

[Architect]

This may be a case of

[adman0468]

Good catch and very interesting. I started to comment that labels mean very little on marketing plans, but this is a more technical drawing which gives it legitimacy - particularly considering that the known locations match stores already open.

Now we know what slot to watch for construction activity on Apple!

Very interesting. I did notice a few things about it:

It has Luxury Nails in the correct space. Construction is going on right now and I saw the building permit. The center's website has always had it at the opposite end of the center.

There are signs on some empty store fronts that group together a few store names. The ones that mention Peyton Place, Lucky and J Crew have all been covered up. Also, the large J.Crew sign on their actual location has been covered up, too.

And, unfortunately, I downloaded the pdf instead of viewing it on the website and it shows that it was created in February of this year. Afraid it may be outdated.

But I'm still going to watch the theoretical Apple space for any activity.

[LRguy21]

I think there is a wall up in front of the theoretical space for apple. If im not mistaken, its rite next to the proposed lucky brand jeans.

[adman0468]

I think there is a wall up in front of the theoretical space for apple. If im not mistaken, its rite next to the proposed lucky brand jeans.

I think you're right. The supposed Apple space has a wall that sticks out from where the window would be. I guess to allow construction on the facade without people knowing what's going on. Maybe it's happening right now? Probably not. However, any store that hopes to open by Christmas season will have to start construction very soon.

[adman0468]

The new Arkansas Business has an article about the lack of stores at the Promenade. The future looks pretty dismal. According to them, several stores have confirmed that they are pulling out, including Bebe, Bath & Body, Victoria's Secret, Talbots, J. Jill, J. Crew and Newk's Express Cafe. A spokesman for the center said they had some names to announce in the next month or so, but couldn't name them yet.

On a brighter note, Maggie Moo's has had their best month ever last month and Ya Ya's continues to grow.

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.as...8342&page=1

[LRguy21]

I really hope that this doesn't come true, but if it does the the future does seem bleak.

I would not call this a cause of the little rock economy, but more of the national economy. I would bet that if this center had opened 2 years ago when everything was just moving along, it would be about full. Every time i am walking around the center, i often hear people talk about how they wish the stores would open up.

I bet that if little rock got more variety, then we could keep some of the shopping in state vs people like me that often go out of state to do their shopping. This again is an effect of not having 1 large shopping center that can attract all this. I would still like to think that if the right people were involved, they could market the midtown area has 1 large shopping district (parkplaza, midtowne, and park avanue).

on a side note, i wounder if chicos and jos a banks will ever move to the promenade? i think that these stores would do better in a cluster vs 1 in this center and 1 in the the other. you could add old navy to the mix also.

[adman0468]

on a side note, i wounder if chicos and jos a banks will ever move to the promenade? i think that these stores would do better in a cluster vs 1 in this center and 1 in the the other. you could add old navy to the mix also.

I think Jos. a Banks and Chicos were once mentioned as possibilities. And since they already have locations in mid-towne, they make sense. However, they seem to be pretty big draws in and of themselves. Would it really make sense to move from a very visible center near a very busy LR intersection to something with much less traffic. Also, Ethan Allen was mentioned as a transplant at one time, too. In an outparcel, I think.

[Architect]

The new Arkansas Business has an article about the lack of stores at the Promenade. The future looks pretty dismal. According to them, several stores have confirmed that they are pulling out, including Bebe, Bath & Body, Victoria's Secret, Talbots, J. Jill, J. Crew and Newk's Express Cafe. A spokesman for the center said they had some names to announce in the next month or so, but couldn't name them yet.

On a brighter note, Maggie Moo's has had their best month ever last month and Ya Ya's continues to grow.

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.as...8342&page=1

Wow. Unbelievable. However, I doubt that's a long-term decision. I imagine - like another poster noted - this is just a temporary response to the economic climate. When that improves, they'll be back.

Regardless, my wife and I ate at YaYa's tonight (very good), and were surprised at how crowded it was. Regarding the other retailers (the few that there are), we noted that they all closed at 6:00 or 7:00. Yikes. That's a bad sign. The stores at Midtown are open until 9:00.

[EJC]

Wow. Unbelievable. However, I doubt that's a long-term decision. I imagine - like another poster noted - this is just a temporary response to the economic climate. When that improves, they'll be back.

Regardless, my wife and I ate at YaYa's tonight (very good), and were surprised at how crowded it was. Regarding the other retailers (the few that there are), we noted that they all closed at 6:00 or 7:00. Yikes. That's a bad sign. The stores at Midtown are open until 9:00.

Yeah, until there are other restaurants, I don't think things will stay open late.

[dman]

Yeah, until there are other restaurants, I don't think things will stay open late.

we definitely need additional restaurants in this mall. I work in one of the offices in the neighborhood and we all are craving to have some mediocre restaurants in this area. Something like Chipotle, Buffalo Wild Wings will sell like a hot cake and draw a large crowd.

[slyder1]

^I don't think Chipotle and Buffalo Wild Wings would go into this high scale of a development. I'm sure the lease rates are too high for those types of restaurants, but I agree with you, Little Rock does need more Buffalo Wild Wings.

So I visited the website for this mall today and I have to say I was very disappointed with the graphics, and overall design. They need some photos of the mall (at least of the stores that are there), and maybe even re-do the entire website. Maybe I'm being too picky, but I could even do a better job than what they have done.