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Bled_man

Ally Charlotte Center (f/k/a Tryon Place) - 26 floors - 427'

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These things take time, therefore I haven't formed a mindset for this project yet. I've almost ignored it just to avoid getting bummed if it where ever scaled back or cancled. Ever since this news has broken I've tried not to get excited and to look at it as a bonus possibility... rather than an expected addition to our current boom.

Look at how long the Park has been around... Heck it was announced during the previous boom of towers (Hearst, Westin, etc..) and its just now nearing completion. A project of sig's size is bound to run into setbacks.... it could happen... and it might not, but right now the momentum is still in its favor (1yr isn't all that much time for a project of that size to remain in the proposal stage imo). Unfortunantely for us skyscraper and urban groupie's these things take longer then we'd like them too. I'll continue to look at this post objectively and try not to get to excited.... but when/if something firm does happen, boy will I freak out. Hoping for the best.

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I'll continue to look at this post objectively and try not to get to excited.... but when/if something firm does happen, boy will I freak out. Hoping for the best.

Trust me when I tell you that you will not be disappointed--this project is still on track --- with or without the additional parcels---and it is going to be stunning.

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Trust me when I tell you that you will not be disappointed--this project is still on track --- with or without the additional parcels---and it is going to be stunning.

What's the purpose of the additional parcels, and which are they? Why are they important yet apparently simultaneously so optional?

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In order that things are report correctly, I will take a stab at metropoitan's questions...

First of all, metro_M, I agree with your logic about the marketplace right now. The only thing I will say about the stock market affect on the economy is that this type of swing usually is in the favor of someone shopping for a mortgage, so borrowing, albeit somewhat responsible for the swing, will become easier for some.

Metropolitan -

The additional parcels are the Query Spivey Building (James, McElroy and Diehl Law Firm) 22K+ square feet of dirt and the Faison building, @ 11K+ square feet of dirt. As you know, an acre is 42,560 square feet of dirt. So, if the entire city block is 3.6 acres, this represents about 20% or so of the total land for the project. The other (Central Parking and Goodyear = Crescent) is equivalent to 2.9 acres or 124K square feet of surface area.

The big thing here is that a project of this magnitude should really encompass the entire city block and should not have old, delapidated, asbestos-ridden assets in its shadow. HOWEVER, since this portion of the city block was slated for green space and public space for the project (based on the current building config), it is not worth it to pay a premium for dirt that will not be generating any revenue.

This project will happen. It may not be as originally planned (GRANDIOS AND OFF THE CHART), but it will be like no other project Charlotte has ever seen.

Stay tuned...

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....

First of all, metro_M, I agree with your logic about the marketplace right now. The only thing I will say about the stock market affect on the economy is that this type of swing usually is in the favor of someone shopping for a mortgage, so borrowing, albeit somewhat responsible for the swing, will become easier for some.

....

Actually in this particular case, the prediction is that mortgages will go up for everyone and not entirely having to do with the the meltdown of the sub-prime market. The dollar is also becoming mostly worthless against the other currencies and interests rates are going to have to rise in order to keep the Chinese, Japanese, and Europeans from selling off their American bond holdings. That isn't going to be good for the mortgage market.

If the term "vulture investor" becomes common in Charlotte as it has in other cities where there has been a lot of high rise condo construction, then I predict this project will go on indefinite hold.

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I think the QSM bldg is owned by a partnership of about 8 or 9 lawyers. I wonder if any of them represented that guy who held out and wouldn't sell his tiny piece of property in front of Panthers stadium? That really worked out well for him didn't it.

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I'd prefer these buildings staying as opposed to open space....we don't need these token patches of green at every single corner of the city. The only issue would be is I believe UMUD requires a certain amount of open space, so if they didn't get these buildings, would that not alter the footprint of the proposed buildings? I'm not really sure how the code works, so maybe it wouldn't impact it....

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Buildings like this take years to build, so the immediate current market conditions are somewhat moot unless the builder/developer is hurting for funds. I don't think anyone believes Trump is running out of money -- if he is he can just do a couple TV cameos, some WWF appearances, and other side-line things to re-stuff the coffers.

Seriously though, no one can predict conditions in 2, 3, 4 years when units in any high-rise would be closing, so that is rarely a major factor with properly backed and funded developers in this scale of construction. Office vacancy in town and other factors are playing much more important roles than mortgage company woes and the stock market. Hotel, office, and retail are large components of this, so housing trends are only part of the picture.

Edited by Charlotte_native

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.....

The 1000 footer announced in Nashville, The Signature Tower, has yet to show any signs of actually closing in on a ground breaking though it's been more than a year since it was announced.

Almost on cue, a story has appeared in the Nashville Business Journal claiming the Signature Tower has been "pushed back". Remember, unlike the Trump tower, this one was announced more than a year ago and a sales office opened to sell condos.

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I don't know I'm real optimistic that Trump knows; or has hired people that have given him the information to form his opinion that his project will succeed. After that book I've read, that is pretty good if anyone wants to pick up a copy its, by Stephen A. Ross his guy on the side. Projects of this size definately take a long time and in the book it says Trump loves pulling of complex deals thats where he gets his kicks from. He doesn't just like to do the real straight vision everyone has for the site. The Trump touch and the fact this building would be finished years after this building boom most likely has me optimistic that he could find a perfect spot to be coming in the market. Finally I think there will be a market for living in the tallest building in Charlotte and potentially the East Coast. I think there won't be as many condos in it as Signature because of the hotel rooms so perhaps it will be easier to fill so I'm not worried and Trump can get a project off the ground faster than that local guy in Nashville could.

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FWIW, Doug Smith has posted a list of the projects uptown and says this about the possible Trump tower-

"15. Trump site

The Trump Organization is evaluating the 600 block of South Tryon Street with Infinity Partners for redevelopment. Trump plans to make a decision on whether to proceed with a project by early September. Real estate experts anticipate condos, hotel, offices and shops. "

So prob nothing official until at least September, if then.

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So I was with my friend who's dad works for the firm Little last night. Well anyway he said that its 74 stories and a 1000ft plus right now but he thinks in the end and his dad told him he thinks it will be scaled down a little but would still be the new tallest in town no matter what happens if I get anything else out of him; I'll tell like color and look of the building he said its two towers like everyone thinks.

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Actually in this particular case, the prediction is that mortgages will go up for everyone and not entirely having to do with the the meltdown of the sub-prime market. The dollar is also becoming mostly worthless against the other currencies and interests rates are going to have to rise in order to keep the Chinese, Japanese, and Europeans from selling off their American bond holdings. That isn't going to be good for the mortgage market.

If the term "vulture investor" becomes common in Charlotte as it has in other cities where there has been a lot of high rise condo construction, then I predict this project will go on indefinite hold.

I concur and believe that all projects that have not started by the end of the 3rdQ of 2007 will be put off. I have stated this in many other threads and have to again state that I am not trying to be negative, just realistic. The markets are JUST STARTING to correct and the housing market is miserable. I have been a little off on my timing, but the backdrop to all of my arguments on other threads will be validated in the upcoming weeks and months.

To get back to Trump, my thoughts are that the longer this takes, the more possibility it has for being shelved until another upcycle in housing emerges (which might not be until 2010-2011 time frame, at earliest).

A2

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Almost on cue, a story has appeared in the Nashville Business Journal claiming the Signature Tower has been "pushed back". Remember, unlike the Trump tower, this one was announced more than a year ago and a sales office opened to sell condos.

I am going to suggest to all those getting their hopes up on Signature being built be prepared to be VERY disappointed. My thoughts are that this project will NEVER be built, or if it is built, then it would be significantly less impressive than what was been promised to Nashville over 18 months ago.

A2

(ps--Sorry to drift from topic, but prolific projects (including The possibility of a Trump Charlotte project ) are very hard to pull off, especially in a decelerating market)

Edited by A2

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I concur and believe that all projects that have not started by the end of the 3rdQ of 2007 will be put off. I have stated this in many other threads and have to again state that I am not trying to be negative, just realistic. The markets are JUST STARTING to correct and the housing market is miserable. I have been a little off on my timing, but the backdrop to all of my arguments on other threads will be validated in the upcoming weeks and months.

To get back to Trump, my thoughts are that the longer this takes, the more possibility it has for being shelved until another upcycle in housing emerges (which might not be until 2010-2011 time frame, at earliest).

A2

Yea, but I think the Charlotte market really never got inflated like other markets did, and that is what is helping it stay strong (and grow!). I mean, look at how house prices just SKYROCKETED in areas like DC and the northeast, among other areas. Houses that were $150,000 in say 1995 were selling for close to $750,000 last year! And this was normal! Things were getting completely out of control, and the market is correcting itself in those areas. I really don't think the market in Charlotte even needed correrction, housing here is still dirt cheap when compared to other areas. I mean finding a 1-2 bedroom condo for $250,000 in a city center the size of Charlotte's is almost unheard of in many other parts of the country.

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Just spoke to a friend who's on the Trump project and he says the only work done so far is that they are currently still doing feasibility studies, looking at utilities and such. The holdout buildings are nothing to worry about and if Trump wants their land, he'll get it, no questions asked. he also said he's not aware of an architect being picked yet but that the project is definitely a go. The man calling ALL of the shots is actually Trump Jr. and him and Ivanka have been in the office several times lately. Also, as for height, there have been some talks of 80 floors, but it will most probably be no more than 70.

Edited by Raintree21

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Yea, but I think the Charlotte market really never got inflated like other markets did, and that is what is helping it stay strong (and grow!). .....

That's true for most of the market, but not true for downtown and certain neighborhoods near downtown especially since 1995.

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Just spoke to a friend who's on the Trump project..............he's not aware of an architect being picked yet but that the project is definitely a go.

The architects (yes... plural) have been selected--3 firms are involved from what I understand--one is the AOR, one for design, and one for the retail space.

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Sounds like we have some good resources on this forum and looks like things are going to come around afterall. That September project sounds a little delayed. I remember originially when it was announced that Trump was looking here in Charlotte, they said by the end of summer for an official announcement. I don't think it's unreasonable for us to see an official announcement here in September.

I also agree that the housing slumps pertain more to other areas in the country than to Charlotte. Charlotte is a much different market and area, and we all know that Charlotte has been an exception to many rules in the real estate industry. I don't think Charlotte would have trouble supporting the tower as well as the retail / residential / office by any means. It's already welcomed with open arms, and with the amount of high income jobs (banking industry) on the rise here in Charlotte, as well as the much success that BofA and Wachovia has had over the last few quarters, buying out more companies and relocating more jobs to Charlotte, it shouldn't be unreachable in having condos at Trump Charlotte sell in todays time or in the forseen future. Plus with One Charlotte still given the go-ahead with prices from 1-10 million, we know we have the market.

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At this point, I certainly wouldn't label this project as definite. Multiple sources confirm major negotiation problems with Trump.

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At this point, I certainly wouldn't label this project as definite. Multiple sources confirm major negotiation problems with Trump.

Multiple sources? As in, who, might I ask? What type of troubles?

Edited by brokenraven

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