Ally Charlotte Center (f/k/a Tryon Place) - 26 floors - 427'

[rockhilljames]

I wouldn't call Diehl a "yokel" either. He might be a bit slimy (see Shinn defense...), but he's a heck of a lawyer and has a high profile nationally.

[guy4charlotte]

While owning Diehl's parcel was never "critical" to the main project, it was desirable with a project of this magnitude to involve the entire block, and the hold-up over acquiring the additional parcel certainly didn't help move things along. So here we are now with a very questionable market.....and despite the continuing interest of the active players, and their belief in Charlotte, the market is what it is, and frankly the project is now on shaky ground---not dead ... but shaky ... due to MAJOR market concerns ...however, the parties involved are still working hard to make this project happen.

[brokenraven]

Well that's just great. If you believe what the sensationalist news channels are saying, then nothing will ever be built again, anywhere. Hopefully the Charlotte condo market hasn't been overdiluted yet (refer to the "Who's going to buy all the condos" thread).

[dubone]

Don't forget that smart business managers and owners are looking a real business stuff and not Channel 9 news. You know, the real stuff like the lack of liquidity. We'll see how it all pans out, but I wouldn't blame news channels for people not paying their mortgages and taking forever to sell their homes.

Thanks guy4charlotte for keeping us posted.

[Dale]

While owning Diehl's parcel was never "critical" to the main project, it was desirable with a project of this magnitude to involve the entire block, and the hold-up over acquiring the additional parcel certainly didn't help move things along. So here we are now with a very questionable market.....and despite the continuing interest of the active players, and their belief in Charlotte, the market is what it is, and frankly the project is now on shaky ground---not dead ... but shaky ... due to MAJOR market concerns ...however, the parties involved are still working hard to make this project happen.

I guess I don't undedrstand why it would go shaky just now. 'Major market' concerns have been playing out for months.

[guy4charlotte]

I guess I don't undedrstand why it would go shaky just now. 'Major market' concerns have been playing out for months.

All i can tell you is what I have heard--the project has become "complicated" because "the market is questionable"--whether the market that is viewed as being questionable is the national market or the local market I will leave to your speculation, but my suspicion is that it is a little of both. Having said this, let me reiterate that people are working very very hard to keep this deal together and make it work.

[hotshoe]

I regularly deal with bankers and some developers that are active with large projects throughout the southeast. Here is what I am hearing lately: 2008 is basically going to be a year of caution for most of the major players with most if not all large ambitious projects cancelled or at least shelved where that is posible. There seems to be a consensus that it's now time to move from condos to either the sidelines or to student housing or apartments in markets where these projects can be successful. Of course, some developers like Trump don't have those other disciplines in their shop so I'm told that the most likely thing to see out of them will be little or nothing in 2008 as everyones waits for the dust to settle on the economy as well as the seperate but interrelated credit and housing markets.

Of course, this is a general outlook for the overall southeast market (not FL) so there are certainly exceptons to be made and varying degrees to how this projection will relate to different markets. However, I'm told that the "2nd tier markets are different (better) than the coast" argument is losing steam as evidence of softness is now showing up just about everywhere. The credit crunch seems to be mostly to blame for this.

Despite this outlook my personal view is that we're still going to see some starts here and there but it sounds like most in the development and banking community are not chomping at the bit to surf what some think might be the last wave for a while in this business. FWIW, the last lender I talked to thought Novare deftly caught the "last wave" with Avenue and was quite puzzled about the prudence of starting Catylist. Of course, he's a banker not a developer and may be looking at things too conservatively. In any event, I thought those perspectives were relevant to some of the discussion on this thread.

[rockhilljames]

Catalyst, the Carolina Theater condo, and 300 will sell fast. One Charlotte will be in presales for a long time, and 210 and the Vue will be built but have some empty units on the market that might slow down other starts.

That's my prediction.

[Route]

What about the Wachovia Condo Tower? Will that still get built?

[rockhilljames]

Oh yeah, forgot about that.

It seems that is a definite go.

[Charlotte_native]

I regularly deal with bankers and some developers that are active with large projects throughout the southeast. Here is what I am hearing lately: 2008 is basically going to be a year of caution for most of the major players with most if not all large ambitious projects cancelled or at least shelved where that is posible. There seems to be a consensus that it's now time to move from condos to either the sidelines or to student housing or apartments in markets where these projects can be successful. Of course, some developers like Trump don't have those other disciplines in their shop so I'm told that the most likely thing to see out of them will be little or nothing in 2008 as everyones waits for the dust to settle on the economy as well as the seperate but interrelated credit and housing markets.

Are you hearing, also, like I am -- that some projects that were going to be residential might move to office? Here in Charlotte we have an abnormally low vacancy rate for office so some sites are being reconsidered for heavier, or a complete change, to office to fill the void.

[elvigy]

Are you hearing, also, like I am -- that some projects that were going to be residential might move to office? Here in Charlotte we have an abnormally low vacancy rate for office so some sites are being reconsidered for heavier, or a complete change, to office to fill the void.

This is something I've been wondering about as well. It seems that an office tower wouldn't face nearly the problems that (yet another) condo tower might. The bulk of the credit problems are associated with subprime lending and the banks and other financial institutions that are involved with that. I wouldn't think a developer would have trouble getting a loan for a speculative tower in the lowest vacancy rate area in the nation.

I don't know what experience Trump has with office towers though. My admittedly limited knowledge of his "empire" is that it focuses on high end residences and resorts. So even if he considered switching to an all office or mostly office tower, he might actually face a little more scrutiny from lenders that developers with a proven track record in office towers.

[hotshoe]

Are you hearing, also, like I am -- that some projects that were going to be residential might move to office? Here in Charlotte we have an abnormally low vacancy rate for office so some sites are being reconsidered for heavier, or a complete change, to office to fill the void.

I am hearing that to be the case in some markets but I wouln't expect to see much af that in Charlotte given the new supply already in the pipeline. I think Charlotte is like 3rd in the country behind only NYC and San Fran with over 3 million SF under construction. Obviously, most of this has been driven by the banks and the firms serving them. But given the billion dollar write-offs we keep reading about and the uncertainty about more one has to wonder whether all the new space is still as needed as it was before all the credit problems surfaced only a few months ago.

Also, last Friday this article ran in the WSJ about Trump's condo projects running into problems. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1195178673...;s_Most_Popular

There was quite a bit of discussion about how important it is for him to disclose the exact nature of his involvment (license or controlling equity owner). The article quotes some peeved buyers who say that this role wasn't fully disclosed on the front end when they were putting donw deposits. Trump now says he couldn't be expected to solve solvable construction problems when he was only selling his name. My take on the article and the state of the market is that there will be far fewer license deals in Trumps future and he seems to have his hands full with the big projects he has control over. This article seems consistent with what I'm hearing about low expectations for new projects in 2008.

[hotshoe]

^ To my point in the first paragragh above, I think these are the logical outcomes from the banks hardest hit by this credit mess. Let's hope we don't start hearing about cuts like this from BOA and Wachovia. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071126/citigroup.html

Sorry this is somewhat off-topic but I think it's responsive to some of the earlier questions and discussion on this thread.

[USAirways]

According to the Observer, Trump is still looking at a 60 story+ Office tower, and "possibly" a condo tower.

Edited December 17, 2007 by USAirways

[voyager12]

While a Trump project would boost Charlotte's profile I am tired of the groveling and begging posture from city officals and local boosters. The pleading nature of today's article is embarassing.

[atlrvr]

Best I can tell, the article was a non-story. I understand that Doug Smith probably gets dozens of emails requesting an update on the project, but it seemed pointless to dedicate several paragraphs about how phone calls from the Trumps aren't returned.

My biggest question in all of this is that I was under the impression the office component was being driven by a company wishing to occupy the space. What has happened to that? Is their time frame flexible, have they lost interest?

[hinsp0]

While a Trump project would boost Charlotte's profile I am tired of the groveling and begging posture from city officals and local boosters. The pleading nature of today's article is embarassing.

Agreed. I found today's article laughable. It made me embarassed to be a Charlotte native. I don't understand why we're begging for a Trump project. Do the rest of you really want Charlotte's potentially tallest building to carry the Trump moniker?

[Andyc545]

Agreed. I found today's article laughable. It made me embarassed to be a Charlotte native. I don't understand why we're begging for a Trump project. Do the rest of you really want Charlotte's potentially tallest building to carry the Trump moniker?

To answer your question- yes. Having Trump in Charlotte would completely change the level that Charlotte is looked on from onlookers in other cities and countries. It could mean that we are a "real city" to some of the average joes out there in major areas. I think Trump would bring a lot more along then what is just proposed, also. Imagine other buildings following, and more people- travelers, residents, etc. following, more life into the city, and possibly more minor projects and money to support them. But I do tend to agree, that article was a beg for answers and him to come- a bit amateur and degrating to be published into an Observer article.

[Charlotte_native]

To answer your question- yes. Having Trump in Charlotte would completely change the level that Charlotte is looked on from onlookers in other cities and countries. It could mean that we are a "real city" to some of the average joes out there in major areas. I think Trump would bring a lot more along then what is just proposed, also. Imagine other buildings following, and more people- travelers, residents, etc. following, more life into the city, and possibly more minor projects and money to support them.

I have to respectfully disagree. I think having a Ritz-Carlton, many towers (office and residential) springing up, true retail if it comes, professional sports, and so many other factors accomplish this. Having Trump would just be one more single piece. For the many that like what he does or what he represents, there are just as many that can't stand it. From my travels and from my conversations with business folk all over the country, this Trump deal isn't really a big deal. It is interesting and it does show investment interest on a national level, but so do many other projects in the city being done by large and well recognized developers from FLA, Cali, wherever the new Vue builders are from, etc. The countless business travellers and bankers that travel to and work in Charlotte raise our national profile as much or more than anything else.

That being said I really hope this does come to pass -- but it won't make or break Charlotte either way. We've done just fine in the last 10 years without an ego-driven media hound.

Edited December 17, 2007 by Charlotte_native

[monsoon]

..... It could mean that we are a "real city" to some of the average joes out there in major areas. I think Trump would bring a lot more along then what is just proposed, also. .....

I don't know. Trump is earning himself a really bad name because of a project that is wants to do in Scotland but the locals don't want him there. They seem him as an American bully and he is getting a huge amount of negative press in Europe because of it. Coveting a Trump deal is much like trying to build the tallest building the world where it isn't needed. It's not seen in a positive manner by most in the world.

If you are interesting in true sustainable urban development for the people, then I am not sure that you would want to be identified with someone that is so conspicuous for excessive excess as Trump.

[ES Charlotte]

I like Trump... He's a successful business man who sometimes uses his money to get his way (Much like our own Bruton Smith) But how i can i not like him for his success and brains in business.. I'm sure if any of us were Trump we would find ourselves doing many of the same things.. And we wouldnt be liked by people who didnt have the money, nor power (for lack of a better word) to complete their coveted business ventures.

Im not saying trump is always perfect.. But im not a big fan of all the haters...

[ES Charlotte]

oh and yes i do think regardless of what developers, or people with experience say.. The average joe (as in non-urban developer) which is about 99% of our population will think much higher of our city with Trumps name in the skyline.

so i really hope this development makes it...

[Charlotte_native]

Im not saying trump is always perfect.. But im not a big fan of all the haters...

Hope I'm not lumped in as a hater. I don't really care about Trump one way or another. I see him as a another in a large list of very successful folks on a national level -- he is just more known because he seeks the attention. I don't believe Charlotte will be better or worse with our without him. There is so much going on here that this is just another project.

[Raintree21]

I don't really see how an editorial writer in a second rate newspaper can be seen as the City of Charlotte being desparate. I hardly think Doug Smith asking for details on the project puts us in a negative light.