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Bled_man

Ally Charlotte Center (f/k/a Tryon Place) - 26 floors - 427'

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Based on a quick calculation of new office space under construction/proposed and what I believe is already committed to, minus vacancy created from restacking of space, I'm projecting a downtown vacancy rate of 9%-10% in 2010. This does not inclue the Flagship Captial site on N. Tryon, that is supposedly 400k, though no firm announcement.

9%-10% is healthy, but certainly not justification to start another large spec tower in a market as small as Charlotte. I agree that if Trump happens, it will only be because they have someone lined up to take a large chunk of space. My speculation last year was a major relocation, but obviously the delays have killed that optimism. Trump could build on spec. because his ego says tenants will flock to his "superior" product, but that didn't work out too well for Hesta, who took a big loss on Carillon when they way overshot they market.

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Based on a quick calculation of new office space under construction/proposed and what I believe is already committed to, minus vacancy created from restacking of space, I'm projecting a downtown vacancy rate of 9%-10% in 2010. This does not inclue the Flagship Captial site on N. Tryon, that is supposedly 400k, though no firm announcement.

9%-10% is healthy, but certainly not justification to start another large spec tower in a market as small as Charlotte. I agree that if Trump happens, it will only be because they have someone lined up to take a large chunk of space. My speculation last year was a major relocation, but obviously the delays have killed that optimism. Trump could build on spec. because his ego says tenants will flock to his "superior" product, but that didn't work out too well for Hesta, who took a big loss on Carillon when they way overshot they market.

I think you may be incorrect, there are tons of companies looking for uptown office space right now even though they have none, and many companies in uptown are looking for more. I know several personally who would like a lot more. If Charlotte can continue growth, more businesses that enter the market will enter in uptown rather then Ballentyne and Southpark. Charlotte's office market won't deteriorate to 10% Vacancy for a while unless something big and drastic happens.

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^ BofA and Wachovia just announced prospective layoffs and the worst write-downs/earnings reports they've ever had. Isn't this probably "big and drastic" in a negative way to the extent that these two firms are the primary drivers of the downtown Charlotte office market ?

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^ BofA and Wachovia just announced prospective layoffs and the worst write-downs/earnings reports they've ever had. Isn't this probably "big and drastic" in a negative way to the extent that these two firms are the primary drivers of the downtown Charlotte office market ?

But it's not just these 2 companies. There is a trickle down effect right now and the whole country is borderline going into recession. It's all banks and many other businesses. Yes, this trickle down effect will slow up the economy, even here in Charlotte, as it has proven the past 2 years, but then I again say- this is Charlotte, and things will pleasantly surprise us and figure their way out soon enough. I don't know what this has to do with Trump, but I guess yes this does effect Trump as far as the market, but again- I don't think this will sway a decision for Trump since the Charlotte market has generally been much better than the rest of the country and only see the economic situation as a potential slow down for Trump, or switch the project into multi-stages to see how the residential market changes. Obviously the demand is still here for office and hotel. Even with bank cutbacks, I believe the demand will stay for office, especially if Charlotte is trying to attract more corporate HQers.

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Based on a quick calculation of new office space under construction/proposed and what I believe is already committed to, minus vacancy created from restacking of space, I'm projecting a downtown vacancy rate of 9%-10% in 2010. This does not inclue the Flagship Captial site on N. Tryon, that is supposedly 400k, though no firm announcement.

9%-10% is healthy, but certainly not justification to start another large spec tower in a market as small as Charlotte. I agree that if Trump happens, it will only be because they have someone lined up to take a large chunk of space. My speculation last year was a major relocation, but obviously the delays have killed that optimism. Trump could build on spec. because his ego says tenants will flock to his "superior" product, but that didn't work out too well for Hesta, who took a big loss on Carillon when they way overshot they market.

I don't think it's possible to predict vacancy rates 2 years out. There are so many unknowable factors (status of economy, relocating companies, health of our banks, blah blah blah) that looking forward two years based solely on 2 or 3 single factors won't be anywhere near accurate, imho. If it was that simple, real estate wouldn't be the tricky business it is. You'd simply do the math and know where to build. :lol:

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..... Even with bank cutbacks, I believe the demand will stay for office, especially if Charlotte is trying to attract more corporate HQers.
What city doesn't do this? Charlotte is also competing against every other city it's size in the USA for a shrinking corporate workforce. Many times if these do occur it's because there are significant financial reasons to do so.

It should be noted that the 3 biggest users of office space in DT, that is BofA, Wachovia, and Duke have basically been there forever. Whenever Charlotte has managed to attract a major corporation to town, something of the size that would make a difference (say 1000+ employees), they have tended to locate to suburban space simply because of the cost thing. Microsoft, IBM, Royal Insurance, Lowes, Tiaa-Creff, Vanguard, and so forth all went to suburban campuses.

IMO, I think Trump was looking to cash in on the luxury condo and office tower fad that most cities in the USA has been going through over the last few years that has been made possible by unreasonable and unsustainable low interest rates. People don't realize that interest rates are lowered basically by the government printing more paper money and that in turn has caused the dollar to collapse which is very problematic for a lot of reasons. Possibly last fall, Trump, saw the coming collapse in this kind of investing before it became apparent and decided to put this project on ice until things shake out. Projects are being canceled all over the country and it's unreasonable to think that Charlotte is somehow immune to this downturn.

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It should be noted that the 3 biggest users of office space in DT, that is BofA, Wachovia, and Duke have basically been there forever. Whenever Charlotte has managed to attract a major corporation to town, something of the size that would make a difference (say 1000+ employees), they have tended to locate to suburban space simply because of the cost thing. Microsoft, IBM, Royal Insurance, Lowes, Tiaa-Creff, Vanguard, and so forth all went to suburban campuses.

That is correct, but isn't part of the problem the lack of available space downtown as well as cost? For Tiaa-Creff part of it was also the desire for a large secure campus. Shaw is one company that has recently relocated here in downtown with close to 1000 employees. They now occupy most of the First Citizens building -- they grew into the building incrementally as space became available. Only pointing it out because I've been told it is our lack of vacancy that has kept a few companies away that would otherwise choose to either be in Charlotte entirely or be in center city but have otherwise chosen locations in Southpark or further out. Don't Microsoft and IBM always have spread out multi-facility campuses wherever they locate?

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.... Don't Microsoft and IBM always have spread out multi-facility campuses wherever they locate?
IBM has built some very notable skyscrapers in many cities of the world. Microsoft is basically located in suburban Seattle with the Charlotte campus being their only development location outside that area. A few years ago Microsoft was approached about moving their campus to downtown, I think near Gateway, but they turned it down and decided to expand their Arrowood locale. On security, I can't imagine Tiaa-Creff needing more security than BofA or Wachovia so my guess is the primary motivator for them was cost.

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IBM has built some very notable skyscrapers in many cities of the world. Microsoft is basically located in suburban Seattle with the Charlotte campus being their only development location outside that area. A few years ago Microsoft was approached about moving their campus to downtown, I think near Gateway, but they turned it down and decided to expand their Arrowood locale. On security, I can't imagine Tiaa-Creff needing more security than BofA or Wachovia so my guess is the primary motivator for them was cost.

(not about Trump, sorry off-topic)

Actually Microsoft has development locations in the Silicon Valley; Vancouver, B.C. (created to hire developers into North America from the rest of the world and get around our maddening immigration policies here in the U.S.); Raleigh; Cambridge, England; Beijing, China and Bangalore, India. Charlotte is mostly sales, consulting and support, along with Dallas, Tx and Issaquah, Wa. (due south of Redmond aka Mecca :) ).

The reason the Microsoft Campus is off of Arrowood is because of the hue and cry raised by employees about "having" to go downtown to Gateway since a large proportion of Microsoft's employees relocated to Charlotte and wound up in south and southwest Charlotte and Union County and didn't want to fight traffic to get to work.

Now back to discussions of all things Trump.

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^I forgot to mention East Coast USA for MS which is how they describe the Charlotte campus.

In any case, for whatever reasons, the large corporations that have placed a lot of employees in Charlotte have located them in suburban locales. The original point being this won't be a reason for Trump to build a tower in downtown and most likely he has seen the fad in tower construction die off and that is why we haven't heard anything significant for this project in close to 6 months now. The land deal with Diehl was very vocally ended in August, that was dismissed as being irrelevant because of the claim that Diehl is an asshole, but I do note there has been complete silence on this project ever since. The big announcement in October never happened, so IMO, I think this project is on ice for now.

What is Trump's history on similar projects? (on projects that Trump actually builds, and not the ones that he sells his name for)

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The big announcement in October never happened, so IMO, I think this project is on ice for now.

What is Trump's history on similar projects? (on projects that Trump actually builds, and not the ones that he sells his name for)

Overall i have to agree -- I think the Trump project and a few like it will likely either cease or be on hold. In the current atmosphere it just doesn't make sense UNLESS you do have a large tenant in place. Considering who could be that large tenant, many that might be are likely reeling from what has been going on in the economy. Too many moving parts right now, IMO, for many to make big moves.

Who does know much about Trumps history with projects in the past few years? I have to admit I know little about him other than his antics on TV and his name from way back in NY.

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ok admittedly I'm hesitant to post anything on here again other than a firm start date and a 3-D fly-thru rendering, but those of you who are still believers might be interested to know that at least the Charlotte preview site appears to be under construction (secure access only though) here:

http://www.witnesstherenaissance.com/

FYI--TTO likes the word 'Renaissance'--check out their Trump Toronto site

Edited by guy4charlotte

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ok admittedly I'm hesitant to post anything on here again other than a firm start date and a 3-D fly-thru rendering, but those of you who are still believers might be interested to know that at least the Charlotte preview site is under construction (secure access only though) here:

http://www.witnesstherenaissance.com/

FYI--TTO likes the word 'Renaissance'--check out their Trump Toronto site

you now have me excited... arg ive been waiting for this one for so long!

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Indeed, that site is registered to:

Stratagem, LLC

708 Calks Ferry Road

Lexington, South Carolina 29072

United States

Administrative Contact:

Matthews, Rhonda [email protected]

Stratagem, LLC

708 Calks Ferry Road

Lexington, South Carolina 29072

United States

(803) 361-7295 Fax -- 18774715768

Google last cached it on Feb 21 so there has been no front page activity for 2 weeks.

Stratagem is an advertising company.

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Today's Observer confirms that Trump in Charlotte is on hold. They quote Trump's son who says that the credit problems in the country have caused them to put this potential project on hold but that they still like the Charlotte market. It goes further to say they might not have the site on Stonewall if they don't move now, but that they could or would consider other sites in the future.

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I'm honestly not too terribly worried. This should get cooked up again around 2010. Hopefully the housing mess will be worked out by then. :)

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I'd be much more comfortable if a far reaching project like this happened in the next cycle. Don't get me wrong, though, if it all worked out, I'd be glad for it to happen. But we all know that for the past 6 months, there was a bit of a zero-sum game going on, so it is very good to have as many of the other, smaller scale projects moving forward and getting completed.

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I'm glad this happened in a way as it gives more chance for the smaller projects to grow. Were another mega-condo to open, it would just further saturate the uptown condo collection hurting all of the smaller projects. Next cycle sounds perfect. Their interest in Charlotte has already peaked so it will remain on their minds for when the credit crunch has been corrected.

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..... credit crunch has been corrected.
There isn't a credit crunch there is instead a credit flood. Too much easy credit has led to these kinds of proposals being made. From a macro perspective, there is absolutely no reason for a city of 650,000 people where the median household income is $47K, to have dozens of expensive highrise condo projects. The government continues to address the problem by printing more money and giving more credit to the banks that are creating the problem in the first place. I think it is going to be a long time until you see these kind of projects proposed again.

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There isn't a credit crunch there is instead a credit flood. Too much easy credit has led to these kinds of proposals being made. From a macro perspective, there is absolutely no reason for a city of 650,000 people where the median household income is $47K, to have dozens of expensive highrise condo projects. The government continues to address the problem by printing more money and giving more credit to the banks that are creating the problem in the first place. I think it is going to be a long time until you see these kind of projects proposed again.

I agree with your economic argument (as to the irrationality of demand for high rise condos), but as to the "credit flood" -- the difference this time (as in since the current trend of dropping interbank lending rates began) is that that credit isn't making its way to the consumer and commercial borrowers. I agree that it will be a long time (likely 3-5 years before the next proposal (but I hope I'm wrong)) before these kind of projects re-emerge, but this will be due to the scarcity of credit.

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I think it is appropriate at this point for everyone to take a look at the Wachovia Championship Official Program page 89. You can view it online at the tournament website. Anyone want to guess about the architect?

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I think it is appropriate at this point for everyone to take a look at the Wachovia Championship Official Program page 89. You can view it online at the tournament website. Anyone want to guess about the architect?

Pardon my ignorance. But what exactly are you referring to? Trump Charlotte?

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