Ally Charlotte Center (f/k/a Tryon Place) - 26 floors - 427'

[Ryepow]

I think if gas prices continue to rise as they have been, living within walking distance of work will be more appealing.

[ontap]

It would have been extremely difficult for it to be kept quiet if a transaction would have takent place but they never purchased the land. The site is currently owned by Crescent Resources and Trump no longer has an option on it. Crescent could possibly end up developing it themselves or it might end up in the hands of another developer. If or when Trump does do doing something in Charlotte, I doubt it will be at this site.

I'm curious, how do you know that Trump doesn't still have an option on the land? Maybe terms have been reached but the sale hasn't closed. Maybe the option was extended. Maybe Crescent will subordinate or be a partner in the development. There are a million different scenarios inwhich the dirt deal could be done. I don't think anyone on the site is privy to any of the actual terms.

[schmopperX]

I agree that it's cool, but I wouldn't get my hopes up about this quite yet. As for Saks and stuff like that, not likely. Retail is hurting (especially department stores) all over and sales of luxury goods have gone flat. As for residential, I have to wonder what Trump's price point is going to be on the condo tower? With all the projects that have been stalled, how is this one going to get off the ground? Trump New Orleans is now two years behind schedule (still not a construction trailer on site), Trump Tower Tampa never got its $300 million loan (it was supposed to have been completed this summer) and is still a vacant lot, and the second Trump Tower in Las Vegas is now on hold due to the slowing economy. Still, I guess we can dream...

I totally agree; This is GREAT to talk about and dream about, and kick around, but then reality kicks in.

This project won't be built, not that it's not a fun idea, or that I don't want it, but it just doesn't make good sense.

[ChiefJoJo]

Lots of info in the last few days... Good work dubone on overlaying the site plan on the Stonewall/Tryon site... it does seem like a perfect fit. That leads me to believe Trump is pretty serious about moving forward, or at least testing the market, and that is the likely site at this point--not the city land at 277.

I think that having the hotel and office space--both in high demand--as major components of the overall project increases it's viability. That, and the fact that the Charlotte market has been somewhat resistant to an economic downturn, if not a slight slowdown in growth. Good points about the poor comparison with Trump Charlotte and One Charlotte (all condos) and the Tampa and New Orleans Trump projects.

If you put it all together... Wachovia ad, website going live, site plan matches available Stonewall site, mixed use in a strong office/hotel market, resilient local economy, plus the full weight of the Trump organization behind it (ability to borrow major $), I think the chances are at least 50/50 of this going forward at some point.

FWIW, I really like the design too, and I don't think proximity to Wachovia matters whatsoever. Think about this for one second... We're probably talking almost $2B of investment in high-rise construction projects on two neighboring city blocks... I think the right answer is let's be glad this is even a possibility!

[83alphaunder]

I'm really in love with this project and its scale (73 floors and 40, WOW), but there is one very negative thing I have noticed about the project thus far and thats this one simple quote.

With Below Grade Parking and street level access this retail portion brings energy from the streets of Center city Charlotte inside to creat a memorable shopping experience.

I translate this to be "We Suck all the energy from the street around us"

So basically what I take from this is it will be a jazzed up more expensive luxury Overstreet Mall, with maybe 1 or two street level shops. I guess with its location it'd be hard for it to be otherwise, not to mention Diehl's building kind of ruins the possibility of sufficient street level retail. Overall however I am excited about getting 200k more retail downtown, especially when it will likely be apparel stores bookstores and etc.

[Southernyank]

^well, by looking at the picture on the right side of the 'shopping' section of the website, it looks to me like it will be an epicenter style retail design behind glass panes.

[Andyc545]

Lots of info in the last few days... Good work dubone on overlaying the site plan on the Stonewall/Tryon site... it does seem like a perfect fit. That leads me to believe Trump is pretty serious about moving forward, or at least testing the market, and that is the likely site at this point--not the city land at 277.

I think that having the hotel and office space--both in high demand--as major components of the overall project increases it's viability. That, and the fact that the Charlotte market has been somewhat resistant to an economic downturn, if not a slight slowdown in growth. Good points about the poor comparison with Trump Charlotte and One Charlotte (all condos) and the Tampa and New Orleans Trump projects.

If you put it all together... Wachovia ad, website going live, site plan matches available Stonewall site, mixed use in a strong office/hotel market, resilient local economy, plus the full weight of the Trump organization behind it (ability to borrow major $), I think the chances are at least 50/50 of this going forward at some point.

FWIW, I really like the design too, and I don't think proximity to Wachovia matters whatsoever. Think about this for one second... We're probably talking almost $2B of investment in high-rise construction projects on two neighboring city blocks... I think the right answer is let's be glad this is even a possibility!

Nicely rounded up. Couldn't agree with you anymore. The investments that have already been made on S. Tryon at this point is astonishing with Wachovia's massive multi-building complex and Trump would just be mind boggling. A lot has happened in a small 3 or so days, and I believe there may be some more stuff leaking or expressed since it looks like at least Trump Jr is here (who should be the one over this project) for the Wachovia Championship. It's important to recognize what buildings are true Trump investments, because that is what this project will be. The projects that bought the Trump name actually required no investment from Trump himself and actually made money (I had the exact amounts somewhere) just for having his name on the project, which was suppose to be more tempting for those looking to buy into it. Trump can get the money for this if he wants, and they have certainly at least expressed interest into the Charlotte market long-term, so I don't see why this project would be unrealistic at this point. Probably 2 years ago this would have been laughed at, especially a 70+ story tower, but Charlotte's grown up a lot these last years. I think, also, that the big contingency is whether a large amount of the office space can be sold, likely from a large relocation or corporate hq relocation, which would bring the high paying jobs that can afford the condos. It should be noted that the only ultra-lux condo project that will be available on the market in the coming years is Encore, and that is only 20 units. Also the hotel portion would likely be 5-star, which Charlotte currently does not have, although the Ritz, going up now, will be the first. This hotel would serve more for the Wachovia high paid travelers, and would have the luxury of the convention center across the street (OK- so I pushed that one with the HofF). Maybe I'm just very optimistic because I'm excited about the project in all, and these towers have become some of my favorites already, but I truly think there is more realism in this working then one would have previously imagined.

[Miesian Corners]

I'm just going to have be the contrarian here (I know, you're all shocked by that). As much as I'd like to believe this will happen, I think it's as schmopper said, "a pipe-dream". And yes, the Charlotte economy is not terrible, but it's not great either. We're just beginning to see the effects of the recession and what the credit crisis will have on two of our largest employers, Wachovia and Bank of America.

As for my comparison to One Charlotte, well, John Portman has developed large projects all over the world. More, in fact, than Trump. And although I thought One Charlotte was silly from day one, a 70-story tower of condos by Trump isn't? On land that his organization doesn't own? In a recession?

[jednc]

I'm just going to have be the contrarian here (I know, you're all shocked by that). As much as I'd like to believe this will happen, I think it's as schmopper said, "a pipe-dream". And yes, the Charlotte economy is not terrible, but it's not great either. We're just beginning to see the effects of the recession and what the credit crisis will have on two of our largest employers, Wachovia and Bank of America.

As for my comparison to One Charlotte, well, John Portman has developed large projects all over the world. More, in fact, than Trump. And although I thought One Charlotte was silly from day one, a 70-story tower of condos by Trump isn't? On land that his organization doesn't own? In a recession?

Not to be too contrary, but we aren't in a recession. A recession, by definition is two consecutive quarters with negative growth. We have yet to have one quarter of negative growth, let alone two in a row. The liberal media that wants to make sure you vote for a democrat this November sure likes to through around the word recession...but we don't have one in America...at least not yet.

None of that is to say I think this project will happen. It's just I get tired of hearing about this imaginary recession we aren't in.

[wheatie]

Not to be too contrary, but we aren't in a recession. A recession, by definition is two consecutive quarters with negative growth. We have yet to have one quarter of negative growth, let alone two in a row. The liberal media that wants to make sure you vote for a democrat this November sure likes to through around the word recession...but we don't have one in America...at least not yet.

None of that is to say I think this project will happen. It's just I get tired of hearing about this imaginary recession we aren't in.

The 2 quarters of negative growth definition is not the actual definition for a recession in the U.S.

National Bureau of Economic Research decides the exact dating of recessions in the U.S.. The NBER uses the following definition:

"A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough."

[elvigy]

Ignoring the "debate" over the term recession, it really doesn't matter if we are or are not in a recession. Each project in the country is evaluated on its own basis, not on the status of the national economy. For example, the Empire State Building was built during the Great Depression.

If Trump has his ducks in a row, this project will happen. If he doesn't, then it won't. They say all politics are local, but that saying applies to real estate as well.

[Miesian Corners]

OK, well I'll not debate the economy with anyone, after all, I don't know much about economics (didn't I hear that from a presidential candidate recently?).

Trump Chicago began construction in 2005. It won't be completed until 2010. All I'm saying is that even if he did own the land (which, by the way, he doesn't and friends in the know tell me Crescent was just as surprised by the ad as any of us, but I digress), we would not even begin to see this come to fruition before 2012.

It is a pretty building, though. And jednc, I hope you're enjoying our booming economy. I just helped it out by spending $85 to fill my tank. Damn liberal media.

[Bynocerus]

Damn librul media: it's all their fault folks such as Kentard went out and did things that would cost you your job as assistant controller for the local hospital, to say nothing of how CEOs of the world's largest financial institutions SHOULDN'T behave. I bet it's dang ole CNN's fault capitalist economies have dang ole business cycles too.

I know a little* bit about economics, so let me weigh in real quick.

1. We are in a recession. NBER won't declare it as such until well after the fact, the reason being that we have to actually be out of the recession before they can assign dates and assess severity. Make no mistake about it though: we've had two quarters of declining growth (meeting the generally accepted definition), and if the government hadn't screwed with the CPI to disguise those annoying phenomenon such as $5 milk, $3.50 gas and the fact that you can't buy a decent home in East LA making $100,000 a year (still), we most certainly would have had negative GDP last quarter (and the gov's been doing it since JFK, so I'm not assigning any specific blame. Shockingly, all politicians do it. /sarcasm off).

2. More germane to the topic, this project is not going to be initiated under any circumstances in the foreseeable future for one simple reason: All these developers understand NPV, and you don't need a Harvard MBA to tell you that a project's NPV goes negative very quickly when you have to fork over a crap-ton of cash just to get a commercial lender to play the game with you, assuming that lender can actually lend you a couple bil. Donald Trump ain't got half a billion dollars to plunk down, and even if he did, it wouldn't be worth him to tie up that much money on a project. On the flip side, if Mr. Trump doesn't plunk down hundreds of millions of dollars, no one's going to finance the project because: 1) banks are scared crapless right now; 2) quite frankly, no one has that kind of money to lend at the moment, and; 3) with inflation pressures mounting and scrutiny as high as ever, do you really want to be the VP who green lights this deal and gives someone five to ten percent of your entire commercial portfolio @ 4%? It's not like ANYONE is willing to swap that in the derivatives market, and if they are, EPIC FAIL may be renamed in their honor.

I'd love to see this project done, but I'm not sure why it's gotten so much hype over an ad buy that Mr. Trump probably didn't think twice about as a sunk cost. Perhaps it does get done down the road, but don't be surprised if the grading is just getting started a decade from now. People outside the financial industry, even now, don't seem to realize how much damage has been done, and how precarious many banks financial situation still is. This kind of deal is a death sentence for your career and anyone elses who comes near it if it blows up.

Edited May 4, 2008 by Bynocerus

[RaleighHeelsfan]

OK, well I'll not debate the economy with anyone, after all, I don't know much about economics (didn't I hear that from a presidential candidate recently?).

Trump Chicago began construction in 2005. It won't be completed until 2010. All I'm saying is that even if he did own the land (which, by the way, he doesn't and friends in the know tell me Crescent was just as surprised by the ad as any of us, but I digress), we would not even begin to see this come to fruition before 2012.

It is a pretty building, though. And jednc, I hope you're enjoying our booming economy. I just helped it out by spending $85 to fill my tank. Damn liberal media.

Hmmm $85 dollars to fill up your tank?

Maybe you should give up that gas guzzler and get something more well....you know, logical for the times?

[Mid South NC]

"TELL A LIE LOUD ENOUGH AND LONG ENOUGH ... AND PEOPLE WILL BELIEVE IT."

(Adolph Hitler)

We enter a recession when the American consumer believes the lie, and stops, or drastically slow's down puchasing big ticket items ultimately causing an economic slow down!

Who wants to buy new appliances, automobiles, homes etc. when your not sure if this "recession" means you won't have a job next week?

The economy will go up and it will go down. Donald Trump is aware of these things.

There is a lot of focus on the negatives, and little appreciation and thankfulness for the positives! Yes gas prices are through the roof, food prices are rising, and we are a nation of debtors!

Negatives, $9-10 trillion federal deficit, 10 trillion in personal debt, an unstable dollar, and most of the time it doesn't seem to matter if Clark Kent is in the White House, because we are in trouble!

Positives: we have the worlds largest GDP, the strongest most sophisticated military in the world, and my personal favorite, the will of the American people!

96% of Amercians are up to date, and paying their mortgage on time.

95% of Americans are employed!

There have been no new terrorist attacks on American soil!

I know it's Sunday, and I don't mean to preach, but we are a blessed nation, and in my humble opinion if we would take the time to thank God for His goodness and providence, things would begin to get better.

"In this blessed land, there is always a better tomorrow." Ronald Reagan

Edited May 4, 2008 by Mid South NC

[CapeFearRiver10]

Yep my friend was right Charlotte is a conservative town for sure!

[HopHead]

What does any of this have to do with Trump in Charlotte? Please take the political discussions to the Coffee House.

[RiverwoodCLT]

It all depends on what data the governments uses to state the economy. Food and gas are not in the data that the feds use for inflation, it was taken out years ago. So we can sit here and debate if we have a recession or not. It is a shell game the government uses to fool the American people. Gas could go up to 10 dollars a gallon and would not affect the government

Edited May 4, 2008 by RiverwoodCLT

[1979Heel]

Damn librul media: it's all their fault folks such as Kentard went out and did things that would cost you your job as assistant controller for the local hospital, to say nothing of how CEOs of the world's largest financial institutions SHOULDN'T behave. I bet it's dang ole CNN's fault capitalist economies have dang ole business cycles too.

I know a little* bit about economics, so let me weigh in real quick.

1. We are in a recession. NBER won't declare it as such until well after the fact, the reason being that we have to actually be out of the recession before they can assign dates and assess severity. Make no mistake about it though: we've had two quarters of declining growth (meeting the generally accepted definition), and if the government hadn't screwed with the CPI to disguise those annoying phenomenon such as $5 milk, $3.50 gas and the fact that you can't buy a decent home in East LA making $100,000 a year (still), we most certainly would have had negative GDP last quarter (and the gov's been doing it since JFK, so I'm not assigning any specific blame. Shockingly, all politicians do it. /sarcasm off).

2. More germane to the topic, this project is not going to be initiated under any circumstances in the foreseeable future for one simple reason: All these developers understand NPV, and you don't need a Harvard MBA to tell you that a project's NPV goes negative very quickly when you have to fork over a crap-ton of cash just to get a commercial lender to play the game with you, assuming that lender can actually lend you a couple bil. Donald Trump ain't got half a billion dollars to plunk down, and even if he did, it wouldn't be worth him to tie up that much money on a project. On the flip side, if Mr. Trump doesn't plunk down hundreds of millions of dollars, no one's going to finance the project because: 1) banks are scared crapless right now; 2) quite frankly, no one has that kind of money to lend at the moment, and; 3) with inflation pressures mounting and scrutiny as high as ever, do you really want to be the VP who green lights this deal and gives someone five to ten percent of your entire commercial portfolio @ 4%? It's not like ANYONE is willing to swap that in the derivatives market, and if they are, EPIC FAIL may be renamed in their honor.

I'd love to see this project done, but I'm not sure why it's gotten so much hype over an ad buy that Mr. Trump probably didn't think twice about as a sunk cost. Perhaps it does get done down the road, but don't be surprised if the grading is just getting started a decade from now. People outside the financial industry, even now, don't seem to realize how much damage has been done, and how precarious many banks financial situation still is. This kind of deal is a death sentence for your career and anyone elses who comes near it if it blows up.

Actually, I think the generally accepted definition as set by the NBER is 2 consecutive quarters of negative (not declining) growth. Last quarter's numbers came in at .6% growth; measly, but still not in recession territory by definition.

I'd love to see this project done, too. But I also agree that it's a good ways (years) away.

[dubone]

I agree, the I think economic references are fine here, but full-on diatribes should probably taken to another thread in general state of the economy.

I think most of us are highly skeptical about the prospects for this happening, but it is entirely plausible. Trump made his way while doing stuff during down markets, so he might know what he is doing by announcing right now. But if Crescent people were that surprised, then maybe this is not so much a well done craft.

[guy4charlotte]

so ummm..back to the project...ermmm...ok....proposed project....itself......Little is the only announced architect so far, but as I recall there were hints way back when that there would be multiple architects involved--one for the resi, one for the retail, and one for the office maybe? anyway what do you guys think--will this be all Little or do you think it likely that there would be other yet to be announced architectural firms involved as primary architects?

[dubone]

I have a feeling these renderings will be the direction for it, but that there will be many architects involved to design the office space, retail space, residential floor plans, etc. I'm not sure it common for such a complex project to have a single architectural firm design all the ins and outs.

[grodney]

Facts:

- There was an ad in the Wachovia program.

- The domain registration for TrumpCharlotte.com was updated 22-Apr-08.

- The Little website was changed recently to include renderings of Trump Charlotte.

- TrumpCharlotte.com was activated with content last week.

- TrumpCharlotte.com was updated with more content last week.

- According to Polaris, one possible site is currently owned by Crescent.

Those are facts. Do we have any other *facts*?

While I understand pessimism and/or doubting, I don't understand outright dismissal.

[Miesian Corners]

Hmmm $85 dollars to fill up your tank?

Maybe you should give up that gas guzzler and get something more well....you know, logical for the times?

If only I didn't make 27% less in total compensation (than I did in 2003)--there goes that booming econonmy again-- perhaps I'd have the money to put down on a new car.

OK, back on topic. Grodney, the things you mention cost the Trump Organization very little money. More than likely, someone at Trump forgot they had placed an ad in the program and when it was discovered it was still there, they did this to save face. And where else exactly could this fit and make ANY sense (espcially when you look at the site plan)? If no one in the commercial real estate community knows anything about a land deal, what does that say about this as a possibility?

Again, I'd love to see this happen, but come on guys, let's be realistic about this. $300 million in today's "uncertain economic times" is a bit of a stretch. Could it happen? Sure. Is it likely in the next year? Probably not. For goodness sakes, I just want to see the Park and 210 completed at this point.

Edited May 5, 2008 by Miesian Corners

[elvigy]

There would really be no point in throwing more money into the pot just to cover up a mistake. I seriously doubt that they'd get Little involved, create a website, update the website, have Little update their website, etc, just to cover up a whoopsie. Especially since they already said earlier that the project was on hold. All that would have been required was an additional press release saying "Sorry, folks, we goofed and didn't pull the ad in time. The project remains on hold but please do enjoy the pretty pictures."

I'm pretty sure quite a few people, including Doug Smith, have tried to contact them for an official statement and, to me, their silence speaks volumes. In addition, as of the time that the project was officially announced to be on hold, no rendering had been publicly released. So now we have a rendering (a first for this entire project), a website that is being updated (also a first, since the website never even got off the ground when this was supposedly being seriously considered), and a lack of any denial from Trump. To me that means that there is some forward movement on this.

Don't get me wrong, I still think it's a long shot, but to dismiss it out of hand just seems to be ignoring the few clues we've got that there is some kind of progress. It would be hard to say what the likelihood of this getting started really is, but IF the Trumps have a major tenant lined up for the office part, and a commitment from a hotel, and IF they believe the condo section would be at least partially filled by the theoretically relocated employees in the office tower, then I can see this having a good chance. Without those elements, I'd lean towards snowball/hell side.