Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Southron

Alabama Population Growth

42 posts in this topic

Interesting article in today's Montgomery Advertiser about the surging Hispanic population in Alabama. The state was in the top 6 nationally in Hispanic population growth between 2000 and 2003. The other five states were southeastern as well. Between 1990 and 2000, the Hispanic population increased by over 200%, the seventh highest rate in the country.

I had no idea that we ranked so high nationally. Looks like we need to learn Spanish sooner rather than later.

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/NEWSV5...hispanic27w.htm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Thank goodness I'm essentially fluent in Spanish. Birmingham suburb, Hoover, has an extremely large hispanic population and it's growing all the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always thought that Alabama had a slow-growing Hispanic population, especially compared to the states surrounding us. But, if the growth shown in this report continues (and it will), the state will probably make Spanish a requirement in the high school curriculum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always thought that Alabama had a slow-growing Hispanic population, especially compared to the states surrounding us. But, if the growth shown in this report continues (and it will), the state will probably make Spanish a requirement in the high school curriculum.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I really don't see that happening since it's a political backlash issue and the hispanic population isn't very well represented politically. You will, however, see mandatory spanish skills in certain careers (law enforcement, public services, construction and industrial management) and probably increased spanish language media and advertising.

Also, "rate of growth" depends as much on a modest start as it does on a huge gain. If we had one Mexican in 2000 and 5 in 2003, that would be 500% growth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven't heard about Alabama's hispanic population increase but I guess it doesn't surprise me. It seems much of the southeast is undergoing large increases. I believe North Carolina and Arkansas were the top two in hispanic growth in the 90's.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was bored, so I decided to try to predict how the biggest cities in Alabama'll turn out over time in terms of population if recent growth rates stay constant (of course they won't, so this is unlikely)...

However, in the unlikely situation that they do, apparently:

A. City population

Huntsville will pass Mobile in population before 2015, becoming the third-largest city in the state, then surpassing Montgomery in population before 2020, becoming the second-largest city at about 200,000 population (Montgomery will decline slightly). Inner-city Birmingham will continue to decline, falling behind Huntsville in population around 2021-22 or so to become the second-largest city and then meeting Montgomery at around 190,000 population and becoming the third-largest city around 2030.

So we have:

2005

Birmingham around 230,000

Montgomery around 200,000

Mobile around 195,000

Huntsville around 165,000-170,000

to

2030

Huntsville~ 220,000

Montgomery~ 190,000

Birmingham ~ 190,000

Mobile ~ 150,000

Of course, it's not going to turn out exactly like this because growth rates change. Birmingham might get its act together and prolong, or even make relatively permanent, its status as the state's largest city but they'll need better leadership than they have now. Huntsville's growth rate slowing as it gets bigger would also prolong Birmingham's "reign..."

B. Metropolitan Areas

Although Birmingham will likely fall behind Montgomery & Huntsville in terms of city population at some point, Birmingham should remain the dominant urban/population center in the state into the forseeable future. Going by 1990-2000 growth rates (not really accurate),

Huntsville metro would surpass Mobile's in population at about 580,000 around 2035. No shifts to the status quo other than that...

It would look like:

2005

Birmingham- 1,090,126

Mobile- 401,427

Huntsville - 368,681

Montgomery-- 357,244

2045 (long time from now)

Birmingham - 1,572,965

Huntsville - 686,154

Mobile - 661,495

Montgomery - 601,256

I have no idea why I posted this, as it is completely irrelevant to anything. But it'd be interesting to see whether these predictions work out.

Another thing... the obvious inaccuracies that result from making predictions this way are shown by applying the "method" to Hoover... if you continue Hoover's explosive 50% per 10 years growth rate indefinitely, then the prediction is that it'll be in competition with Huntsville for "biggest city in the state" by 2030, which seems highly unlikely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have no idea why I posted this, as it is completely irrelevant to anything.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, I certainly find it interesting... thanks for running the numbers and posting. And at the very least, you can sense that the spread between the 3-4 biggest metros is flattening - the 2020 census may narrowly determine Alabama's largest city between three strong candidates.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Interesting information but yet a little off nooffense the metro population of Birmingham which is Jefferson county proper is alittle over 600,000 . The Mobile metro population was is correct over 401,000 in population . montgomery county is at 221,000 and madison county poipulation is correstand growing rapidly as i&#39;m typing now Lol.

Ihe Birmingham CSA which is combined stitisctical area which is a combonation of of 7 or 8 different counties and it is better known as the Birmingham-Cullman CSA population that is where the population surpasses 1 million . The Mobile CSA is Mobile and Baldwin County and combined the population is over 567,000. Montgomery CSA is combined with 3 or 4 different counties and it&#39;s CSA is over 367,000 which was first mintioned. Huntsville CSA includes 4 to 5 different counties as well and is right behind Mobile in terms of CSA population . Huntsville CSA population is over 508,000 and Huntsville CSA is better known as Huntsville-Decatur CSA.

There was a discussion about a year ago about includding other counties into Mobile&#39;s CSA Mobile&#39;s CSA only includes just 1 county and that is Baldwin. Tuscaloosa County may be included in Birminhams 7 to 8 county CSA and there has been talk about including Lee county into Huntsville CSA. The Mobile CSA in the near future will include neighboring Gulf Coast Mississipi counties which is over 300,000 in population to Pensacola,Fl whose CSA as of now is over 500,000 as well but city population is only over 50,000. If neghboring Mississipi counties and Pensacola,Fl was already added in the Mobile CSA it would be called the Mobile-Pensacola CSA which will include 6 counties with a population of over 1.6 Million . Just like counties in Kentucky was included in Cincinatti,Oh CSA the same was talked about for Mobile&#39;s.

Mayor Sam Jones of Mobile,Al has an annexation plan for the city which will be presented some time this year .It will be a about annexing un incorporaed west,norhtwest,and southwest prtions of the county that are very close to the city which is an addition of over 85,,000 people if this is succesful the Mobile city population will be greater then 150,000 which is pridicted for the future and i dought that it ever git that low any way.If not succsessful the way that God has been blessing the city of mobile ,the county and Baldwin county with such economic properity the two would still experience population increase just as the Huntsville-Decatur CSA has experienced .Only time will tell Population increase is a positive but with increase there is crime I rather live in a city with 150,000 than to have a city thats 300,000 with an annual murder rate of 180 lives . people want growth but with it comes problems just have to be well prepared.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting information but yet a little off nooffense the metro population of Birmingham which is Jefferson county proper is alittle over 600,000 . The Mobile metro population was is correct over 401,000 in population . montgomery county is at 221,000 and madison county poipulation is correstand growing rapidly as i&#39;m typing now Lol.

Ihe Birmingham CSA which is combined stitisctical area which is a combonation of of 7 or 8 different counties and it is better known as the Birmingham-Cullman CSA population that is where the population surpasses 1 million . The Mobile CSA is Mobile and Baldwin County and combined the population is over 567,000. Montgomery CSA is combined with 3 or 4 different counties and it&#39;s CSA is over 367,000 which was first mintioned. Huntsville CSA includes 4 to 5 different counties as well and is right behind Mobile in terms of CSA population . Huntsville CSA population is over 508,000 and Huntsville CSA is better known as Huntsville-Decatur CSA.

There was a discussion about a year ago about includding other counties into Mobile&#39;s CSA Mobile&#39;s CSA only includes just 1 county and that is Baldwin. Tuscaloosa County may be included in Birminhams 7 to 8 county CSA and there has been talk about including Lee county into Huntsville CSA. The Mobile CSA in the near future will include neighboring Gulf Coast Mississipi counties which is over 300,000 in population to Pensacola,Fl whose CSA as of now is over 500,000 as well but city population is only over 50,000. If neghboring Mississipi counties and Pensacola,Fl was already added in the Mobile CSA it would be called the Mobile-Pensacola CSA which will include 6 counties with a population of over 1.6 Million . Just like counties in Kentucky was included in Cincinatti,Oh CSA the same was talked about for Mobile&#39;s.

Mayor Sam Jones of Mobile,Al has an annexation plan for the city which will be presented some time this year .It will be a about annexing un incorporaed west,norhtwest,and southwest prtions of the county that are very close to the city which is an addition of over 85,,000 people if this is succesful the Mobile city population will be greater then 150,000 which is pridicted for the future and i dought that it ever git that low any way.If not succsessful the way that God has been blessing the city of mobile ,the county and Baldwin county with such economic properity the two would still experience population increase just as the Huntsville-Decatur CSA has experienced .Only time will tell Population increase is a positive but with increase there is crime I rather live in a city with 150,000 than to have a city thats 300,000 with an annual murder rate of 180 lives . people want growth but with it comes problems just have to be well prepared.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
B. Metropolitan Areas

Although Birmingham will likely fall behind Montgomery & Huntsville in terms of city population at some point, Birmingham should remain the dominant urban/population center in the state into the forseeable future. Going by 1990-2000 growth rates (not really accurate),

Huntsville metro would surpass Mobile's in population at about 580,000 around 2035. No shifts to the status quo other than that...

It would look like:

2005

Birmingham- 1,090,126

Mobile- 401,427

Huntsville - 368,681

Montgomery-- 357,244

2045 (long time from now)

Birmingham - 1,572,965

Huntsville - 686,154

Mobile - 661,495

Montgomery - 601,256

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't like to be over critical or boosteristic, but I think some of these projections are unrealistic. Huntsville will likely surpass Montgomery and Mobile at some point due to the BRAC, but I am doubting that it will be surpassing Birmingham. I will say that Birmingham's city population has been on the decline lately, but it's likely to bottom out in the next few years. I'm not saying Huntsville isn't growing as a city, but it will likely top out around the 225,000-250,000 range.

Birmingham (barely) and its metropolitan area will likely continue to lead as both the state's largest. Its CSA will likely surpass 1.5 million inhabitants way before 2045 (more likely to occur between 2010-2020). Honestly, the current mayor and leadership issues in Birmingham and its region has shown that it has and is making major changes to fix these very problems. Birmingham will likely remain within this number range also due it changes that the city is attempting to make. Huntsville-Decatur CSA will likely surpass 1 million inhabitants within the next 2-3 decades.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well... I mentioned that it was destined to be inaccurate. But Birmingham's metro population (MSA, not CMSA) includes a number of counties and is about 1,100,000 in population currently (you can look it up if you want.) The CMSA with Cullman is closer to 1.2 million, but I didn't use that because it's misleading. The urban area (not including the commuter belt) is between 600,000-700,000, I think... the other guy's right that Huntsville & Decatur'll probably combine. In the hypothetical situation that Decatur's MSA growth rate from 1990-2000 stays constant, the population should be at about 232,000 by 2045, which would give the newly combined Huntsville-Decatur MSA a population of about 918,484.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As a native of Bama, here's my two cents. Huntsville will grow larger in city population than Montgomery and possibly Mobile. However I doubt its metro in our lifetimes will ever be bigger than Mobile. I feel like in the future the Mobile metro might consolidate w/Pensacola and possibly w/Pascagoula, Miss. Also FWB might consolidate w/ P'cola making a huge consolidated metro from Okaloosa or at least Santa Rosa counties in FL to at least Mobile County in AL and possibly Jackson or even Harrison counties in Miss. This megalopolis would have a pop. well over 2 million at that time. While Huntsville/Decatur is growing rapidly, I don't think they could match these numbers.

Birmingham metro will always be Bama's dominate and most populous metro.

On preview I see I've just about repeated what you said about Mobile, PortofBama. Sorry about that. Good to see we agree on the consolidation of Mobile and P'cola. I think that's a reality in the near future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


As a native of Bama, here's my two cents. Huntsville will grow larger in city population than Montgomery and possibly Mobile. However I doubt its metro in our lifetimes will ever be bigger than Mobile. I feel like in the future the Mobile metro might consolidate w/Pensacola and possibly w/Pascagoula, Miss. Also FWB might consolidate w/ P'cola making a huge consolidated metro from Okaloosa or at least Santa Rosa counties in FL to at least Mobile County in AL and possibly Jackson or even Harrison counties in Miss. This megalopolis would have a pop. well over 2 million at that time. While Huntsville/Decatur is growing rapidly, I don't think they could match these numbers.

Birmingham metro will always be Bama's dominate and most populous metro.

On preview I see I've just about repeated what you said about Mobile, PortofBama. Sorry about that. Good to see we agree on the consolidation of Mobile and P'cola. I think that's a reality in the near future.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just an FYI. (Since I am a numbers freak, and Birmingham is where I am from originally)

The MSA of Birmingham has grown about 22% in 35 years. If you add that same statistical math to the current MSA of roughly 1.08 million people, then B'ham will boast a metro population of around 1.34 million in the year 2042. Granted it could grow faster (or slower), so the number could be off by 50-150K, but you get the idea that Birmingham's metro will still be around 1.4M in the year 2042.

http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popm/pm1000.htm

(I could have posted the link from the Census, but I liked the way the above link broke it down year to year to see the trend. FWIW, the numbers above are identical to the Census counts of the MSA going back to the 1970 Census)

***The 2005 Census estimate puts the Birmingham-Hoover-Cullman CSA at 1,170,014. Just so there is no confusion. ***

A2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well you also have this huge babyboomer population that is going to retire. the demographics of the Mobile Metro in south Mobile county will change big time. hopefully the 3,000 job steel plant will come to Mobile. Mobile's job growth rate is great and is growing fast. I think Mobile will continue to grow and again the gap between P-cola, Mobile, and Biloxi will fill in.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just an FYI. (Since I am a numbers freak, and Birmingham is where I am from originally)

The MSA of Birmingham has grown about 22% in 35 years. If you add that same statistical math to the current MSA of roughly 1.08 million people, then B'ham will boast a metro population of around 1.34 million in the year 2042. Granted it could grow faster (or slower), so the number could be off by 50-150K, but you get the idea that Birmingham's metro will still be around 1.4M in the year 2042.

http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popm/pm1000.htm

(I could have posted the link from the Census, but I liked the way the above link broke it down year to year to see the trend. FWIW, the numbers above are identical to the Census counts of the MSA going back to the 1970 Census)

***The 2005 Census estimate puts the Birmingham-Hoover-Cullman CSA at 1,170,014. Just so there is no confusion. ***

A2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
A2, as much I agree the numbers shows the regions slow growth over the past few decades, anything can occur between now and then. I too am a numbers freak and I don't buy into number projections/trends because they are just that projections/trends. Also, I will admit that Birmingham-Hoover-Cullman CSA may not surpass 1.5 million within the next decade, but it will likely surpass it before 2040. The fact there have been recent strides by the individuals (including myself) to make changes and improve the infastructure in Greater Birmingham has shown that that number trend is likely to be bunked sooner than you think.

You seem to underestimate the potential of a population growth of this region simply because the numbers reveal that the region has only grown like 0.5-1% for the past decade. I wouldn't bank on that trend to continue much long in fact I wouldn't be a bit of surprised if the region's growth percentage actually increases to 1-2% range by 2015. Many have predict stagnation about Birmingham (and Alabama in general) numerous times but we seem to have made a way and still actual have a decent growth rate. If my memory serves me right, the numbers shown by the US Census Bureau that Alabama grew 1.1 (2005-2006), so apparently it is growing faster than those numbers from 1999 reveals.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Birmingham metro grew by 9.64% from 1990-2000 accoding to Census Data. That would mean in thirty years a roughly 30% increase, if compounded then it would be a nominal 37%

This would put the Birmingham Metro Population @ around 1.46M by the 2040 time frame.

And to be fair, out of the last four decades, I am choosing one of the fastest growing (1990-2000).

Here is the source derived directly from the Census.

http://www.censusscope.org/us/metro_rank_popl_growth.html

I agree that the sunbelt cities are growing very fast, but in all of my time in tracking metro regions the above number is fairly accurate. For one example, I was born and raised in Birmingham and lived there for over 22 years of my life. In that time the metro population grew by 200,000. (I left in 1999 for what it is worth).

A2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with the points above, but I still don't go by projections that just because it follows trends of the past few decades. The same could be said about all other Sunbelt cities until they all began their growth boom in late 1980's into the 1990's. Birmingham may start its much later than others, but it is likely to occur within the next 2 decades. Thus is my reasoning of having trouble believing the validity of any real trends especially from the Census. Also, Blazer85 and myself do tend to believe that there has been a lot undercounting of Greater Birmingham also, but that another discussion.

The US Census didn't even predict that the Sunbelt cities were going to boom in population until figures shown that the growth rates were drastically higher than previous counts of past decades. I said that Jefferson County hasn't grown in a couple years, but Alabama's recent counts of numbers shown otherwise and had proven me wrong. IMO, predicting numbers from the US Census trends is like playing the lottery. My own experience comes from me working with a planning commission and still living here in Central Alabama made me realize how really off numbers and trends really are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree with the points above, but I still don't go by projections that just because it follows trends of the past few decades. The same could be said about all other Sunbelt cities until they all began their growth boom in late 1980's into the 1990's. Birmingham may start its much later than others, but it is likely to occur within the next 2 decades. Thus is my reasoning of having trouble believing the validity of any real trends especially from the Census. Also, Blazer85 and myself do tend to believe that there has been a lot undercounting of Greater Birmingham also, but that another discussion.

The US Census didn't even predict that the Sunbelt cities were going to boom in population until figures shown that the growth rates were drastically higher than previous counts of past decades. I said that Jefferson County hasn't grown in a couple years, but Alabama's recent counts of numbers shown otherwise and had proven me wrong. IMO, predicting numbers from the US Census trends is like playing the lottery. My own experience comes from me working with a planning commission and still living here in Central Alabama made me realize how really off numbers and trends really are.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People are trying to change the way the census is done. It is increadably inaccurate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[threads merged]

Annual statewide population increases since 2000:

2006 --- 50,703

2005 --- 30,885

2004 --- 22,353

2003 --- 17,518

2002 --- 10,953

2001 --- 14,243

Of the big 4 counties (Jefferson, Mobile, Montgomery, Madison), only Jefferson County lost population since the 2000 census. The good news is that Jefferson County showed an increase in population between '05 and '06. Unfortunately, most of our rural counties continue to lose population.

Source:

http://www.census.gov/popest/countie...ST2006-01.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.