Greenville area population statistics

[Spartan]

I think that is inevitable. But fo Anderson County- that may depend on how much Powdersville has grown in comparison to the remainder of Anderson County. Based on population alone, we can't say how much has changed for sure until the 2010 census figures are released and we can get into the more detailed datasets (wow I sound like a true geek there ). I would guess that out of the people in Anderson County who commute to Greenville, the majority of them live in the Powdersville and NE Anderson County area.

[GvilleSC]

I'm not too familiar with Anderson county growth, but Powdersville sure does have a lot going on. If my memory serves me correctly, Anderson never really grows that much in comparison to Greenville and Spartanburg Counties. I would think that Powdersville's growth would bring Anderson, atleast, back to the Greenville-Anderson MSA. Hopefully Spartanburg will jump on board, too.

[erm1981]

I think the Highway 28 exit at I-85 is where a lot of the growth in Anderson has happened. That place is on fire down there.

[distortedlogic]

I suspect Greenville County's place at #1 will be secure for at least several more years.

Was that tongue in cheek, or are you serious about only "several more years?" The only county to outgrow Gville since 2000, in sheer numbers is Horry, and that only by about 4000 (per the estimates, except York may have grown more by a few hundred). With Gville currently about 180,000 more than Horry, if that trend countinued (which I am sure much will change in this time frame) it would take about 270 years for Horry to pass Gville. As for the three with the current closest population, Chas, Lex, Rich, Gville continues to extend it's lead over them, and there is no reason to suspect that will end.

[Greercat]

I suspect Greenville County's place at #1 will be secure for at least several more years.

WHAT?? Maybe I'm reading this wrong Kraz, but you state this as though you expect some county will surpass Greenville in the next "several years". Hate to spring this on you, but even if G'ville growth slowed to a crawl it would take a couple DECADES for your lower State counties to catch up.

The fact is, that since about the mid-twentith century G'ville's raw growth has been outpacing anything else in the State every decade since. Last year's growth estimates continue this 50+ year old trend and no low country or midland county is going to come close to even reversing this trend for the foreseeable future. Sure there are a few fast growing lower State counties, but most of those were very small twenty years ago and even today none of those have even come close to catching Charleston or Richland in their own neighborhoods.

I know it kills the rest of the State to think about it, but Greenville IS the big county and the big Metro (no matter how the Fed's try to slice it).

[krazeeboi]

First of all, calm down. Stop taking any little comment as a slight against your city/metro/county, etc.; it ain't that serious.

For the record, I said that I expect Greenville County to stay at #1 for at least several more years--"several more years" here meaning at least forty to fifty (which corresponds to your "couple decades"). Within that time frame, something could happen that could propel some other county past Greenville County (yes, as much as you hate to think about it, that could theoretically happen--although I'm not seeing anything that would indicate that it might). So I was merely making room for that possibility in my statement. There's absolutely no reason to believe that current growth rates will stay as is forever, as you seem to imply. I could cite several incidents, both in this state and elsewhere, where one city/metro/county was displaced by another within a relatively short period of time.

Geesh.

[Greercat]

First of all, calm down. Stop taking any little comment as a slight against your city/metro/county, etc.; it ain't that serious.

For the record, I said that I expect Greenville County to stay at #1 for at least several more years--"several more years" here meaning at least forty to fifty (which corresponds to your "couple decades"). Within that time frame, something could happen that could propel some other county past Greenville County (yes, as much as you hate to think about it, that could theoretically happen--although I'm not seeing anything that would indicate that it might). So I was merely making room for that possibility in my statement. There's absolutely no reason to believe that current growth rates will stay as is forever, as you seem to imply. I could cite several incidents, both in this state and elsewhere, where one city/metro/county was displaced by another within a relatively short period of time.

Geesh.

That's cool... Peace!

[Spartan]

GvilleSC- you are correct. Anderson usually doesn't grow as much as Greenville or Spartanburg. I guess what I was asking is to what extent is Powdersville holding up the rest of Anderson County's growth numbers? And to that same point, to what extent is Anderson proper holding its own? There is certainly growth occuring in Anderson, I'm just not sure to what extent.

WHAT?? Maybe I'm reading this wrong Kraz, but you state this as though you expect some county will surpass Greenville in the next "several years". Hate to spring this on you, but even if G'ville growth slowed to a crawl it would take a couple DECADES for your lower State counties to catch up.

The fact is, that since about the mid-twentith century G'ville's raw growth has been outpacing anything else in the State every decade since. Last year's growth estimates continue this 50+ year old trend and no low country or midland county is going to come close to even reversing this trend for the foreseeable future. Sure there are a few fast growing lower State counties, but most of those were very small twenty years ago and even today none of those have even come close to catching Charleston or Richland in their own neighborhoods.

I know it kills the rest of the State to think about it, but Greenville IS the big county and the big Metro (no matter how the Fed's try to slice it).

Greenville is not the largest metro unless you include Spartanburg and Anderson, in which case you must recognize that the multinodal nature of the Upstate requires Greenville to share that distinctive limelight. The Upstate is more than just Greenville. It suprises me that you all would reply in such defensive an manner to that stray comment.

[distortedlogic]

GvilleSC- you are correct. Anderson usually doesn't grow as much as Greenville or Spartanburg. I guess what I was asking is to what extent is Powdersville holding up the rest of Anderson County's growth numbers? And to that same point, to what extent is Anderson proper holding its own? There is certainly growth occuring in Anderson, I'm just not sure to what extent.

Greenville is not the largest metro unless you include Spartanburg and Anderson, in which case you must recognize that the multinodal nature of the Upstate requires Greenville to share that distinctive limelight. The Upstate is more than just Greenville. It suprises me that you all would reply in such defensive an manner to that stray comment.

I agree, the upstate is more than just Greenville, much more. That is part of what makes it the largest region in the state, and why the upstate cities and towns need to work together more than they do instead of always trying to compete so much. The Grand Strand is more than just Myrtle Beach, (though MB is clearly the main player) and it would not do as well if there were no Surfside, Garden City, N Myrtle, etc.

[gs3]

I agree, the upstate is more than just Greenville, much more. That is part of what makes it the largest region in the state, and why the upstate cities and towns need to work together more than they do instead of always trying to compete so much. The Grand Strand is more than just Myrtle Beach, (though MB is clearly the main player) and it would not do as well if there were no Surfside, Garden City, N Myrtle, etc.

Same could be said for Charleston, North Charleston, Mt.Pleasant, Summerville, etc or the Midlands with Columbia, Lexington, Blythewood, Sumter, etc.

The Upstate does need to work together, because under the old metro terms, Greenville, Spartanburg and Anderson are one metro, the largest, with Greenville at the core. This is how national companies see it.....and we all know, "perception is reality".

[GvilleSC]

Does anyone have one, feel like making one , or know where to find such: a map noting all the major developments of the upstate? Something maybe of just underconstruction neighborhoods perhaps??? I don't know where you'd find information, but I wouldn't mind seeing how the upstate is going together. Where Spartanburg's growth is at the moment, Greenville's, and Anderson's. It could help us get a good feel for when we might see the MSA combined again...? Just tossing this out there

[gs3]

^ Excellent idea!

It'd be cool to have a Wikimapia image of the Upstate with no labeling, and then we could go in and label only new projects.

[krazeeboi]

^I think another way to attempt to assess that is to compare 2000 commuting patterns (I think those would be the most recent available) with job announcements and where those jobs will be located. I'm not sure if that would be any better, but it's just another way to look at it. But MSA inclusion requirements are at the whim of the US Census Bureau (or the OMB), so they could change at any moment.

[gs3]

^ Good idea Krazee, thanks.

I'm wanting to look at developments though. The east county line of Greenville and west county line of Spartanburg are just boiling with new developments. When I'm at someones house, I never know which county I'm in.

[GvilleSC]

This is generating some good thoughts. I wonder what's feasible? My main focus is the Powdersville area and of course like you said, the Greenville/Spartanburg county line.

[erm1981]

I feel like im more part of greenville than anderson.

[goodbye]

I feel like im more part of greenville than anderson.

There is a good reason that you do. I don't know of anyone in the NE part of Anderson County (Powdersville, Wren, Piedmont, Pelzer, West Pelzer) who does not feel more connected with Greenville. What is really hard to capture through the census is how people live. Some work in one county, but spend free time and money in another.

[distortedlogic]

I know several people in the Powdersville Wren area who work in Greenville, but do a lot of shopping in Easley. With most of Greenville shopping on the Eastside, they do not want to fight the longer drive and extra traffic. This is precisely why 123/25 intersection would be perfect for a greenridge type development. Give the Westside a little of what the Eastside has. It would be very close to the urban core (which would promote dense development). I garantee you a big development would do excellent in this or a similar area, and promote a lot of needed new development for this side of town.

[GvilleSC]

I know several people in the Powdersville Wren area who work in Greenville, but do a lot of shopping in Easley. With most of Greenville shopping on the Eastside, they do not want to fight the longer drive and extra traffic. This is precisely why 123/25 intersection would be perfect for a greenridge type development. Give the Westside a little of what the Eastside has. It would be very close to the urban core (which would promote dense development). I garantee you a big development would do excellent in this or a similar area, and promote a lot of needed new development for this side of town.

Shifting some development and growth toward the westside would be a welcomed sight. Maybe it would help clean up that entry into downtown on 123.

[Spartan]

Same could be said for Charleston, North Charleston, Mt.Pleasant, Summerville, etc or the Midlands with Columbia, Lexington, Blythewood, Sumter, etc.

No not really. With every other metro in the state, you do not see the multi-nodal nature of the Upstate. You have multiple municipalities to be sure. But municipal boundaries are meaningless in SC as we have discussed many times before. The Upstate has 3 distinct urban cores whereas the places that have been mentioned: Charleston, Columbia and Myrtle Beach - all are 1 urban core.

The Upstate does need to work together, because under the old metro terms, Greenville, Spartanburg and Anderson are one metro, the largest, with Greenville at the core. This is how national companies see it.....and we all know, "perception is reality".

Indeed.

Does anyone have one, feel like making one , or know where to find such: a map noting all the major developments of the upstate? Something maybe of just underconstruction neighborhoods perhaps??? I don't know where you'd find information, but I wouldn't mind seeing how the upstate is going together. Where Spartanburg's growth is at the moment, Greenville's, and Anderson's. It could help us get a good feel for when we might see the MSA combined again...? Just tossing this out there

Haha, I wish you all the best of luck tackling this project! This is a monumental task, but if you're up to the challenge I would suggest contacting the respective County governments to find out what has been approved. They may have this type of thing on their GIS systems, in which case they may be able to provide a map.

As far as population growth, I can show you maps that break down the population growth at the sub county level. Unfortunately I won't be able to do this anytime soon as I have an extremely heavy workload right now. But generally you see the following predominant growth patterns:

Greenville: South and East

Spartanburg: North and West-Southwest

Anderson: Northeast

Note that I'm talking about major growth patterns here, not ALL growth patterns.

[krazeeboi]

The Upstate has 3 distinct urban cores whereas the places that have been mentioned: Charleston, Columbia and Myrtle Beach - all are 1 urban core.

For the Midlands, you could say that it's two: Columbia and Sumter. But the dynamic that exists between the Upstate urban cores does not exist between Columbia and Sumter.

[Spartan]

Right, and thats what I'm talking about. The reciprocal economic relationship of the Upstate's cities is unique within SC.

[GvilleSC]

I stumbled across this from the Greenville County Planning Comission: Demographics (pdf)

It KIND OF does what we discussed, but not really. It's giving projections for 2030 for the respective planning areas of the county. It's kind of funny to think of 530,000+ in the county in 25 years. Anyone think it's modest?

Edited March 27, 2007 by GvilleSC

[distortedlogic]

It KIND OF does what we discussed, but not really. It's giving projections for 2030 for the respective planning areas of the county. It's kind of funny to think of 530,000+ in the county in 25 years. Anyone think it's modest?

Absolutely. Almost all the projections I have seen for Gville county seem to be waay low. If we were at 417 as of last July, we should be close to 425 as of today. I would say 450 is very likely by 2010 (maybe even quite a bit more). Therefore, 530 is much more likely for 2020, instead of 2030. We could be looking at 600k+ by 2030, and that's if the growth rate does not increase much.

[Spartan]

The state's projection for 2030 is 528,180.

Greenville County's for 2030 is 543,822.

600k may be a bit of a stretch, given the information we have, but I would trust Greenville County's estimates over the state's. Its impossible to calculate population growth 100% accurately, but there are accepted methods by which it can be done. When the 2010 Census comes out we will have a much more clear picture of where things are moving.