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Southron

2007 Gubernatorial Race

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Who will win the party nominations in the May primary?

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Republican Primary: Looks like former Congresswoman Anne Northup looks might knock of Governor Fletcher for their nomination. Lots of the insider powerbrokers seem to be already out on her side, or passively neutral at best, with very few big names out for the Governor. Its pretty bad when your sitting Lt. Governor endroses your opponent. Harper probably will not play much of a role, no matter how much money he spends, although he might in the end help take away enough protest/antt-Fletcher votes from Northup to help Fletcher barely survive and edge by for the win. If they have a run-off, its hard to see Fletcher making past Northup in a two person race.

For the Republicans, Northup-Hoover is by far the strongest ticket to retain the Governors Mansion. Fletcher is going into the primary pretty damaged from his first term, esp. with the hiring scandal over his head, so his best hope if he made the general would be to face an EVEN more bruised up Democratic nominee, which could happen. Northup though goes with only the baggage of losing a Democratic leaning House seat, so unless Fletcher could really bruise her image up, its hard to see how she could not be the strongest candidate.

Democratic Primary : Who knows. The Dems really missed an opportunity to solidify behind a good consensus candidate (like Miller, Stumbo, ...anybody!), or heck even agree to split up their support between a couple of good options, instead you have basically a slew of past and present big names of the party fighting it out in a multi-ticket race that is going to suck up A LOT of funds from the donor base before the general and leave a lot of hurt feelings in the end; making the eventual nominee start the general from a much weaker position. Bloody primaries are never good, luckily for the Dems the Republicans look set to have their own.

For the Democrats I think Miller/Maze looks like the best ticket for the general, esp. if they can come out of the primary with more than 40%. Lundsford/Stumbo has a lot of money though, and that means alot, but with "big labor" not willing to support them and lots of hurt feelings in the party base over Lundsford endorsing Fletcher over Chandler in 03, its hard to see how he could be a viable general election challanger without somehow overcoming both those issues.

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I think in the end, the state would be well served with a new Governor, as I can't see a second Fletcher term turning out all that well. Instead a good dynamic Governor like Northup or Miller could really bring a breath of fresh air into a governorship that has for the last two terms has grown stale from all the problems that have distracted the last two Governors from moving the state forward. So I think any change will benefit the state, hopefully both primaries will yield candiates that can bring that change.

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There would be no way Fletcher could manage a second term, when his popularity is ranked 47 out of 50. That's just pretty pathetic.

I am putting my money on Stumbo but at this point, it's anyone's guess. Anne Northup has a nice chance of grabbing the Republican ticket.

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There would be no way Fletcher could manage a second term, when his popularity is ranked 47 out of 50. That's just pretty pathetic.

I am putting my money on Stumbo but at this point, it's anyone's guess. Anne Northup has a nice chance of grabbing the Republican ticket.

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