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CtownMikey

Hurricane Season 07'

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070327/ts_nm/..._accuweather_dc

"beotchi also predicted the U.S. Northeast would likely be a target for strong storms for the next 10 years.

"Last year, the Northeast may have dodged a bullet but, unfortunately, you can only be lucky for so long. We are in a pattern similar to that of the late 1930s through the 1940s, when the Northeast was hit by two major storms," he said."

anyone worried?

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Oh we are long overdue. I'm not scared persay, but I remember Bob, which was really nothing compared to '54 and '38 and I won't take the threat lightly if a storm is on the way.

I like that the person's name in the article is 'beotchi.' They should name a Hurricane beotchi. :silly:

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I remember Bob and Gloria, Bob because my room-mate at the times name was Bob and he clipped the paper headline "Bob hammers State". Gloria I was doing my paper route when the eye came over. During the worst of it, the guy drove by and threw my papers out the window.....

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I had so much fun during Hurricane Bob when I was a little kid. All six trees left in my neighborhood fell into my backyard making a cool fort for me to play in for a few weeks. Of course my block had no power for two weeks, so that kinda sucked.

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I'm calling this a slow news day.

Simply put, there is no real way to predict (especially this early) where and when storms are going to develop. The only thing that can be looked at is water temperatures and other conditions which may make hurricanes more favorable. 2005 was a freak year simply because everything lined up for extreme weather like Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and the other 25 storms of TS strength.

The northeast is overdue to get hit by a major hurricane, even though we should be thankful storms are tamer here than down south. Even a Cat 3 though can do considerable damage depending on where it hits. Would be interesting to see the sheer fury, but then it's bad because... now you have to recover from sheer fury.

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I was too young to remember hurricane Bob, so I have no clue what kind of damage can be done in the northeast. I imagine it would ruin our beach season though.. how about affecting development in our cities with rising costs like Katrina did?

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I was too young to remember hurricane Bob, so I have no clue what kind of damage can be done in the northeast. I imagine it would ruin our beach season though.. how about affecting development in our cities with rising costs like Katrina did?

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I kinda want one to hit so I can feel the excitement. But since I live on the South Shore of Long Island, it will cause really bad damage. Since were under sea level I think.

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No part of land in New York state is below sea level. You're probably barely above sea level, which isn't good when a hurricane barrels across Long Island. I'm assuming you're not young enough to have remembered Gloria or Bob or some of the storms of recent which blew by this way, huh. Or perhaps new(er?) to Long Island?

I kinda want to see one too, just see what it's like. In my fantasy, there's also a magic switch which changes everything back to normal twelve hours after the storm passes.

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No, im to young. (15)

Seeing one will be really exciting. I love walking when its really windy, and when we get thunderstorms on the Island everyone goes crazy.

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Oh man, you missed out on Bob then. That was the last major one. And that might have missed you to the west... unless you live in eastern Suffolk.

I remember that one, that was pretty crazy. So was Floyd back in 1999, but that was a T.S. as it went by (right over my hometown)

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while we are long overdue... they predicted the same thing last year, saying we would get one similar to '38. with weather, it's very hard to accurately predict more than 3-5 days out, even with big storm systems. hurricanes can easily change paths very quickly and go in a completely different direction than originally thought. sure, the weather sites give you 8-10 day outlooks, but after the first 5 days, the chances of actually seeing the predicted weather is greatly reduced. of course the changes depend on where you live. in the northeast, it changes often. in southern CA, it's more predictable. i have basically taken to looking out my window and checking my outdoor thermometer before i go outside to determine what the weather might be.

i remember playing outside during the eye of gloria. it was eerie and cool... but lots of branches and leaves down.

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They say every year that a big one can potentially hit New England. Which is true. However, it takes certain conditions and a certain trajectory seen like in 1938 for it to happen. Doesn't happen so often.

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They say every year that a big one can potentially hit New England. Which is true. However, it takes certain conditions and a certain trajectory seen like in 1938 for it to happen. Doesn't happen so often.

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If Barry had been later in the season, we'd all be pretty wet right now. Its remains made landfall right around Westerly which would have meant a major surge up the Bay had it been an actual hurricane.

There's something cool about hurricanes for sure, in that rubbernecking kind of way. But I'd be happy to never see a Bob again, and certainly not '38. There's no way make people understand what '38 would mean for us today, utter devastation.

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I tell you, it's GLOBAL WARMING that's driving this complete lack of hurricane activity!!! :rolleyes:

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I am not so sure a hurricane like the one in '38 would be quite as devastating today. Mind you, it would certainly do some damage. But we now can track storms much better, and we would have more advanced notice to prepare for one. In addition, much of our building is stronger these days, and better able to withstand those forces. The biggest problem would be the flooding issue, and those areas immediately along south facing shore. I would not expect as much woodland damage - much of that had to do with the fact that our forests at the time were primarily white pine, which blew down easier than some of our hardwood varieties today. Again, there would still be damage, but I don't think as devastating as that one was.

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While the building codes are a lot better than in 1938, the problem is ... it's still a 100 mph hurricane moving at a very high rate of speed (making the damage potential worse, but for shorter period of time). The fact there are so many people living on Long Island and in coastal areas of southern New England (Stamford, Bridgeport, New Haven, New London-Groton, Newport, Providence, Fall River, New Bedford, Hyannis) ... it will be devastating to millions of people in some way or form.

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providence has a hurricane barrier now. we're all set. :thumbsup::tough::D

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I am not so sure a hurricane like the one in '38 would be quite as devastating today. Mind you, it would certainly do some damage. But we now can track storms much better, and we would have more advanced notice to prepare for one. In addition, much of our building is stronger these days, and better able to withstand those forces. The biggest problem would be the flooding issue, and those areas immediately along south facing shore. I would not expect as much woodland damage - much of that had to do with the fact that our forests at the time were primarily white pine, which blew down easier than some of our hardwood varieties today. Again, there would still be damage, but I don't think as devastating as that one was.

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While many passing hurricanes go by to the coast off Cape Cod along the Gulf Stream (or farther east being pushed by fronts, as is the case with Chantal), there have been some which have gone straight up along the coastline and have slammed into southern New England and Long Island. 38 is not so much of a rarity as you might think.

Gloria for example in 1985 made landfall on Long Island, then again at Milford CT. Floyd in 1999, though a Tropical Storm at the time, passed directly over parts of Long Island and then central and eastern Connecticut. Some T.S. a few years back made landfall near New Bedford MA.

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This is an interesting graphic - part of a arger one that shows the tracks of all the hurricanes since 1900. This is the New England area. Alas I do not have the key to the colors, I believe that light blue or green is a tropical storm, and they get darker going into yellows and reds from there are strength increases. So yes, we do get them, but they are rarely very strong. What is most interesting is how similar the paths are.

post-6913-1186006348_thumb.jpg

post-6913-1186006348_thumb.jpg

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The darker blue is Tropical Depression. The lighter blue is Tropical Storm. The pale yellow is Cat 1, and the more intense the yellow orange is Cat 2-3.

I believe the one near Hartford is Gloria, the one at the mouth of the Narragansett Bay is Bob. I'm not going to sort the rest out. Some of them were moving so fast but having strong intensity, they aren't shown on this map.

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The darker blue is Tropical Depression. The lighter blue is Tropical Storm. The pale yellow is Cat 1, and the more intense the yellow orange is Cat 2-3.

I believe the one near Hartford is Gloria, the one at the mouth of the Narragansett Bay is Bob. I'm not going to sort the rest out. Some of them were moving so fast but having strong intensity, they aren't shown on this map.

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Bob came up Buzzards Bay making landfall on the western shore near New Bedford. Storm surge in Buzzards Bay was up to 15 feet and numerous homes were destroyed in Bourne, Wareham, and Mattapoisett. It had 100 mph sustained winds when it made landfall in Massachusetts, with max gusts at 125 mph. Bob was a weak storm but it wrecked havoc across the Cape and Islands. Narragansett Bay had about a 10 foot surge and power was lost across much of the state, but the Cape bore the brunt (being on the east side of the storm). Damage was also significant in Maine, where it made a second landfall near Portland as a tropical storm. Bringing Portland its highest 24 hour rainfall (over 8 inches).

Bob was a rather minor storm as storms go, had it made landfall further west, it would have had a much greater impact on large population centers in Providence and Boston. People on the Cape were without power for weeks, and it effectively ended the tourist season, but had Boston been without power and cleaning up for weeks, it would have had a much greater impact on the economy.

Building codes are better than they were in '38, but there's many more buildings, it only takes one poorly built building to fail, then have wind and surge driven debris crash into other buildings. Most importantly our forecasting has improved, in '38 no one knew the storm was coming. Today we have plenty of time to get out of harms way, but will people? Gloria was a dud and Bob didn't unleash its full furry on very much of the Southern New England population. We've had 2 storms in the modern era that were kind of laughable, and not many people remember '38 or Carol in '54.

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