1st MSA to reach a Million?

[Hybrid0NE]

I've always found it interesting that SC's Big 3 have for the longest had almost the same population in their metros, and experience almost identical levels of growth; but which one will hit the million mark standing alone quickest and what time frame? I do understand that GSA is comfortably above that point already but I want to focus on cities independently (Spartanburg would still exist if Greenville never took off vice/versa but North Charleston is dependant of Charleston) and not a broad region. I would've added Rock Hill into the mix but it's on it way to being completely absorbed into Charlotte. Share your thoughts...

I'm totally unsure which will make if first but within the next 50-75 years, I think they'll all have strongholds over one mill (with Myrtle Beach and Spartanburg being exceptions)...

P.S. MSA populations based on 2006 Census Bureau estimates.

[GvilleSC]

Greenville doesn't have much of a chance with its three counties considering that most of the growth outside of Greenville county is actually happening in Anderson and Spartanburg Counties. Who knows. I'll save my vote for further consideration.

Since the GSA is currently split up into three metros and as I understand it, we're not counting if any combination of the former metro is added back together, then are we limiting all metros to their current configuration of counties?

[Charles Pearson]

If Columbia's home sales continue rising, its metro should reach 1 Million shortly before Charleston and Greenville...esp. with an influx of "half-backers" or people moving from the Northeast to Florida, then moving halfway back to the Carolinas, because the threat of hurricanes is lower and insurance is cheaper. However, I think city proper of Charleston will overtake city proper of Columbia in population by 2010...

[Charleston native]

My hometown has a shot with all of the dense developments taking place in it, the additional surburban areas scheduled to be built, the development of biotech industries becoming a reality, and the impact of the Vought/Alenia aircraft plant. Chas has achieved most of its metro population without the plant, and we all have seen how G'ville just exploded when BMW came to the area. A similar "explosion" of growth could occur.

Oh, as a side note, the Daimler/Chrysler Sprinter van plant recently opened. If production goes up as expected, 1,800 more jobs will be added...another plant which could facilitate Chas to reach 1 million first.

[MikesLogic]

I love Charleston but if I had to go on current trends and MSA configurations I would say Columbia will probably hit 1 million first though it will be close between the two Columbia and Charleston. Greenville county will most likely continue to be the most populous but I don't think the current MSA configuration allows for 1 million people before Columbia or Charleston.

[krazeeboi]

I'd probably say Columbia by a hair--if current growth trends continue, which are variable by nature but have held somewhat steady in SC for the past 15-20 years it seems. When it happens, the other two will be close behind. Of course, all of this is contingent on current MSA definitions. Undoubtedly they will change again by the time any of the current MSAs are within striking distance of 1 million.

[monsoon]

This is a duplication of an older topic. I am closing it as I don't see any purpose on speculations on future population. Especially when many people don't even understand the conditions that cause a county to be included in a MSA.