Hampton Roads Population

[adctvmonkey]

This might be sorta off topic, but I'm curious about what you guys think about a possible trend of the Richmond and Hampton Roads areas' populations interacting more and more, such as in the form of commuting. The reason why is because I thought that Williamsburg could be a suburb of both Richmond and Newport News. Do you think there'll be more criss-crossing of both Metro areas?

[journiyin]

This might be sorta off topic, but I'm curious about what you guys think about a possible trend of the Richmond and Hampton Roads areas' populations interacting more and more, such as in the form of commuting. The reason why is because I thought that Williamsburg could be a suburb of both Richmond and Newport News. Do you think there'll be more criss-crossing of both Metro areas?

[adctvmonkey]

Talk about hitting the proverbial nail on the head. Williamsburg, James City County, and New Kent County are all becoming long distance suburbs of those two localities. Granted, only those who dont mind hour to two hour commutes and can afford such are moving there, but it is happening. While living in Williamsburg a year ago, I was in a subdivision of about 40 homes, 10 of which worked in Richmond, another 10 in HR. Another 10 were retired, that leaves about 10 of us who actually worked in the direct area. Might have been an anamoly, but I am thinking not.

[vdogg]

Population shifts from cities to suburbs, again

The latest population estimates from the federal government show an exodus from cities to suburbs with town centers, at least in Hampton Roads, bucking the notion that more people are moving back to cities.

Since 2002, Chesapeake and Suffolk gained population, increasing by 10 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Other cities, like Norfolk, Newport News and Hampton, lost population, according to the federal government

[adctvmonkey]

Newport News population estimate revised for gains

The Weldon Cooper Center at the University of Virginia, which produces annual official population estimates, has raised its 2006 population estimate for the city from 181,416 to 183,005 - an addition of 1,589 people.

[vdogg]

It's the battle of the population estimates.

[Telmnstr]

I've known a number of people that lived in Hampton Roads, but took jobs in Richmond to try to get the better pay of Richmond and bring it back to what was a lower cost of living in Hampton Roads. Now, this is much more difficult due to the rising costs of energy, and will continue to get more difficult.

As far as the population, I wouldn't be surprised if you see more retirees pass up Hampton Roads and go to NC. I don't know why Hampton Roads would be a destination for retirees, as the taxes aren't favorable. Florida used to be the destination, but due to the housing mania they are currently dead. Insurance and home prices are so expensive there that it's killing retirees. NC and SC are perking up, as I understand it. This is starting to change, as the housing markets collapse in Florida the prices will get more attractive. I've already read about auctions of newly built home where the bid prices were some 30% lower than the recent sales prices. But denial is still there, and many builders/sellers won't let the properties go for what the market is willing to pay -- they run the auctions in some sorta lame mode where they can reject the bids. So for now NC And SC are big on the retiree destination as I understand it, but once the prices drop in Florida they might continue. I speak from experience, I have direct family that left Chesapeake a few years ago for Florida, found they don't like it, want to relocate to NC (Definitly not VA because of taxes), but in the retirement community it's deadlocked due to all of the homes for sale. And they aren't where I read about.

As far as population increase, I wouldn't be surprised if much of the young population growth is in the poor communities. My friend who recently worked for Norfolk Public Schools dropped some crazy information, about how year after year in Norfolk more and more of the schools qualify for reduced price lunches for everyone as the number of students that are from impoverished homes rolls over ?60%?. He said they just got their first high school. You poor people are making babies cause they got nothing to do, and the wealthy are too busy working and trying to maintain the illusion that they have more money than they do. DINKs or whatever you want to call it. Another thing that isn't tracked is how many illegals are here. I'd be willing to bet we've got our fair share.

As far as people relocating here for jobs, I dunno. The new terminal is highly automated. Machine vision and other things allow them to run with a pretty thin staffing.

I got to see the Symmantec office last week in Newport News. Pretty sad, looked like it was a pretty nice place to work. The computer racks from the testing labs were shipped off to India. Even though the place is pretty empty, you could see that it was top notch.

As far as people cashing out of other housing markets and moving here, that is interesting. I've seen people on the Craigslist HoFo talking about this, coming from NY and other places. This will slow, and I wouldn't be surprised if it reverses.

We are a Navy town as well. A transient population that generally thinks of other areas as home. We don't have the job market to really support the home prices, and this is about to become apparent. A friend's relative currently is trying to sell their home for ~1.3million or so, and there is a large number of competing properties that are similar... like 150 or so, in the same price class on the water currently on the market. BOOYA. Good luck selling that, considering most of the recent gains in income came from the real estate ponzi scheme.

[PeninsulaKiddo]

Many of the retirees (including many of my neighbors in York County) come from New York, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, and the rust belt, and if anything their entry into our market appears to be accelerating. If they can sell their 2000 square foot house on Long Island for 3 million then reinvest in a house twice that size for half the price in Williamsburg, I don't think they will care so much about the "unfavorable taxes". I list those numbers as examples because a family friend did just that and got an incredible house just outside of the 'Burg. For this reason I believe that, if anything, more and more people will be retiring to the suburban cities and counties of Hampton Roads.

Another demographic that often retires here are the military personnel. Although the military tends to be a 'transient' population, when these officers and enlisted men and women get to a certain age, it is quite popular for them to either leave rental housing or base housing, buy land in the county (York, for example) and bulid a house to retire in, then retire from active duty and get a job in contracting. I know - literally - dozens of people on just my street who have done so in the past 5 years and I doubt this phenomenon is unique to Tabb.

In addition, as far as the military seeing a worthwhile job market here... there are literally thousands of job positions being formed every year in modeling and simulation, as well as other contracting jobs. For example, I work for a contractor at NASA-Langley doing simple clerical work. Because of the nature of the work on the bases, and the volume of said work, they contract out massive amounts of work in construction, utilities, maintenance, etc. to civilians (who are mostly retired military). This cycle keeps a large portion of the military in the area, although I do know of some who leave the area as well. It varies from family to family, but in my experience I have seen many more examples of people staying in the area because, paradoxically, they can make a s***-ton more money doing contracting work than anything else as a retiree.

[adctvmonkey]

I agree with PeninsulaKiddo. I think the thing is that it's mostly wealthy people retiring in HR, especially Williamsburg and York, while the average American will go to NC or SC. My parents are friends with the owners of the City Center Maggie Moos, and although they're not retired, they're planning to stay in Williamsburg, where they live in a mansion that they bought after they moved from the New Jersey/New York area. My aunt, a HUD auditor that makes big bucks here in DC, will retire in two years with my uncle. They're in the process of checking out Florida, Georgia, NC, SC and Williamsburg. But many of my family's close friends are retired officers who, as PeninsulaKiddo mentioned are now in the contracting business. Most of them reside in York or W-burg.

I believe there's a demographic split between the Southside and Peninsula. The Peninsula, although the housing inventory is bloated, is in a slightly cheaper condition than places like Va Beach, which is wayy too expensive. The suburban areas of the Peninsula seem to appeal and attract more people because it's less dense and in a less populated area than the Southside. My family can personally attest because when we lived in NN/York for 20 years, we loved the Peninsula but would've highly disliked to live in a crowded area such as Va Beach. Although HR is one metro, I believe the Peninsula and Southside are emerging differently.

[adctvmonkey]

btw, I forgot to mention, that's probably why the 2034 population prediction places the Peninsula at a slightly higher growth rate because of its accessibility to other cities and lower population/density than the Southside. Our frequent 2.5 hour trips to NoVa would've been less possible and less appealing from Va Beach.

[Telmnstr]

I worked at NASA, and know there was a good number of layoffs. Constant threat.

While I'm sure there are a number of people with the dough to retire to Williamsburg, but as things constrict the sales of their homes will be impacted, which will have a trickle down effect.

I don't know if you keep up with things. but a 20 billion dollar hedge fund consisting of recent loans just blew up, along with a smaller one. On July 22nd, some rules change which will cut out alot of new buyers using 100% CLTV loans I believe, under some programs.

Lending is going to tighten up hardcore, and that will help drive the steak into the vampire. REOs (foreclosures) are jumping, and are going to get way crazier.

As far as population, there is SOOO much property for rent, it's insane. I used archive.org to retrieve the available rentals from the company I rent from, it's 3 times+ as many availible as any time I could find in the previous 5 years.

And Craigslist is absolutely banging with available rentals. And it's not just Hampton Roads, it's all over the country. It's like the playstation3, before Christmas idiots were paying $2000+, but after Christmas you couldn't get retail. Nothing really changed before or after, it was just a mania.

[adctvmonkey]

No, I don't keep up with things. I have other things to worry about. But that doesn't mean I don't agree with you- your analysis does make sense.

[vdogg]

Lending is going to tighten up hardcore, and that will help drive the steak into the vampire. REOs (foreclosures) are jumping, and are going to get way crazier.

[adctvmonkey]

but, btw; although foreclosures will go up and peak into next year and I think, if I'm not mistaken, affect around 5% of U.S. mortgages, the lending stuff is major but still not detrimental to the U.S. housing market. We're not going to face extreme crazies. But cheaper housing would be a BIG plus.

[PeninsulaKiddo]

I agree with PeninsulaKiddo. I think the thing is that it's mostly wealthy people retiring in HR, especially Williamsburg and York, while the average American will go to NC or SC. My parents are friends with the owners of the City Center Maggie Moos, and although they're not retired, they're planning to stay in Williamsburg, where they live in a mansion that they bought after they moved from the New Jersey/New York area. My aunt, a HUD auditor that makes big bucks here in DC, will retire in two years with my uncle. They're in the process of checking out Florida, Georgia, NC, SC and Williamsburg. But many of my family's close friends are retired officers who, as PeninsulaKiddo mentioned are now in the contracting business. Most of them reside in York or W-burg.

I believe there's a demographic split between the Southside and Peninsula. The Peninsula, although the housing inventory is bloated, is in a slightly cheaper condition than places like Va Beach, which is wayy too expensive. The suburban areas of the Peninsula seem to appeal and attract more people because it's less dense and in a less populated area than the Southside. My family can personally attest because when we lived in NN/York for 20 years, we loved the Peninsula but would've highly disliked to live in a crowded area such as Va Beach. Although HR is one metro, I believe the Peninsula and Southside are emerging differently.

[adctvmonkey]

lol to PeninsulaKiddo concerning Maggie Moos.

and theres always a constant threat in everything.

[Telmnstr]

It will take a long time to play out, in terms of price corrections. Someone I know, a relative of his had a place for sale. Bought for $89K 2 years ago, wanted to sell for $160K now. Found *ONE* fool willing to buy, but they wanted it for $150K. Since they had *0* money, they needed all closing costs paid. Seller said, "I'm not going to get scammed into selling it for too little" and wouldn't agree to cover the closing costs (since they had 0 money) and pulled it off the market. Rinse and repeat, this type of stuff is going on all over. All it takes is a slowdown in employment (aka, anything real estate related) to send a bunch of these people on the edge into trouble. Lots of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, I'm only now getting to the point where I'm not, and I have nearly zero debt, crappy rent, and according to stats make more than the average household in the region.

Speaking of that. Stupid landlord harassing me again. I live in downtown Norfolk, the so called walk friendly place. I rent a two bedroom apartment, pay a huge amount... and have two vehicles. A-Hole property mgmt company gave me 4 day notice that I have to have my 2nd vehicle removed, since it's not driven every day. Well guess what, a few weeks ago I started walking to work, so my car isn't driven either. Evidentially there is some sort of issue with cars being in the apartment building's parking lot during the day...

Of course, this is the same property managemnt company that when I said that 3 of the 4 dryers in the building wouldn't dry a load of clothes, the head guy replies, "I don't see an issue, they are profitable." The company is owned by old Norfolk money, and the guy who runs it (not the owners) has some sorta odd trump wanna-be attitude.

I figured it out. Hampton Roads is so transient, many of the property management companies -- especially the well established ones, just figure they can act like slime to everyone and there will always be new people lining up. Hint, It's not Crooke & Neff and not Meri-death Mgmt.

STAB STAB STAB. All I want is to be left alone. I pay these P!@#$cks a ton of money, get crappy service... and there isn't really a good place to turn.

But at last, I get to grin at the growing vacancies at their properties.

Seriously guys, the USA is in for a major correction. You just can't have home prices so far out of line with prices. Over the past few years lenders have been handing out cash to anyone, because they don't hang onto the loans. So all these people, with 0 down, have been buying properties they won't be able to afford in the short future. Value declines aren't going to help.

Check out craigslist, go to real estate, and search for the following terms:

"under assessment"

Nothing like people trying to sell their places at $30K below city assessment.

[Padman]

I really don't know how to respond to this theme of yours Tel, but I don't think it's so far from being a strong possibility. It's a hard world, and with few barriers to entry, real estate has more than its share of fools and sharks. It's almost as bad as show biz, gambling and the stock market. Anyway, looking at thuings globally, I think that real estate should hold it's own over the long run, maybe being stagnant for the short term. With costs of energy rising, national debt soaring, and a need to maintain global hegemony and somehow address general health care issues, wages must rise while currency must continue to decrease in value. It ain't a pretty picture and a few empty condos for a while don't matter that much overall.

[Telmnstr]

I really don't know how to respond to this theme of yours Tel, but I don't think it's so far from being a strong possibility. It's a hard world, and with few barriers to entry, real estate has more than its share of fools and sharks. It's almost as bad as show biz, gambling and the stock market. Anyway, looking at thuings globally, I think that real estate should hold it's own over the long run, maybe being stagnant for the short term. With costs of energy rising, national debt soaring, and a need to maintain global hegemony and somehow address general health care issues, wages must rise while currency must continue to decrease in value. It ain't a pretty picture and a few empty condos for a while don't matter that much overall.