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TheGerbil

Something interesting from the census

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Some of the other cities that have lost population according to the latest census: Cleveland, Buffalo, Youngstown, Scranton, Dayton, Toledo, Rochester and Syracuse.

Notice a pattern? These cities are all in Ohio, PA and New York. Which raises a big red flag for me. However much we do to attract people, we've still got a problem. We are located in a part of the country that is apparently in shrink mode. If the other cities listed are shrinking for the same reason we are (not enough in-migration), and I suspect they are, then it makes me wonder what we can do. In general, people do not move to the rust-belt.

We'll have to work extra hard if we want to become an exception to that rule. It is possible, and I know we can do it. But it will be a lot of work.

I would love to see some kind of colarboration among rust-belt cities to improve the image of this region. That would be good for everyone.

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I've noticed that too... in addition... the 5 largest metros in nearby WV have shrunk... and Detroit... while posting a modest gain of 0.4% since 2000... is now beginning to shrink due to its rapid economic collapse... and will likely see shrinking populations in the future. In additinon, nearby metros and just about all of Western Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio, Northern WV and western Maryland are losing population. Nearby small metros like Weirton-Steubenville, Wheeling, Erie, Altoona, Johnstown and Cumberland are losing population. The whole interior Northeast / eastern Great Lakes /norther Appalachia region is struggling... much of it due to misguided state economic policies.

The difference between Pittsburgh (Western Pennsylvania) and these other regions (WV excluded)... is that we're losing population primarily due to our birth deficit... a rather unique attribute... while the other metros are losing population primarily due to severe rates of net out-migration.

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Pittsburgh's severe outmigration occurred during the 1980s. Cleveland and Detroit's are occurring now. In 2020, Cleveland and Detroit will be where Pittsburgh was in 2000 --- losing population through natural causes. By that time, I think Pittsburgh will be growing again.

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What gets lost is the fact the people are moving to these cities every year. As mentioned, the effects of the 80s losses has impacted Pgh with a higher death rate than birth rate. Obviously it still comes down to jobs. If the local economy could create jobs faster this would also change. Detroit and the American auto industry is in bad shape and I think it is all but collapsing in some sense. No GM is still huge, as if Ford, but all they do is shrink. This obviously affects Detroit but also auto towns like always struggling Dayton and Cleveland too, among others. Columbus and Indy were never big industrial towns and they continue to do decent to well. Cincy though is struggling with a steep city decline and its main county struggles with population loss, still has a growing metro of ok levels.

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Some of the other cities that have lost population according to the latest census: Cleveland, Buffalo, Youngstown, Scranton, Dayton, Toledo, Rochester and Syracuse.

Notice a pattern? These cities are all in Ohio, PA and New York. Which raises a big red flag for me. However much we do to attract people, we've still got a problem. We are located in a part of the country that is apparently in shrink mode. If the other cities listed are shrinking for the same reason we are (not enough in-migration), and I suspect they are, then it makes me wonder what we can do. In general, people do not move to the rust-belt.

We'll have to work extra hard if we want to become an exception to that rule. It is possible, and I know we can do it. But it will be a lot of work.

I would love to see some kind of colarboration among rust-belt cities to improve the image of this region. That would be good for everyone.

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Some of the other cities that have lost population according to the latest census: Cleveland, Buffalo, Youngstown, Scranton, Dayton, Toledo, Rochester and Syracuse.

Notice a pattern? These cities are all in Ohio, PA and New York. Which raises a big red flag for me. However much we do to attract people, we've still got a problem. We are located in a part of the country that is apparently in shrink mode. If the other cities listed are shrinking for the same reason we are (not enough in-migration), and I suspect they are, then it makes me wonder what we can do. In general, people do not move to the rust-belt.

We'll have to work extra hard if we want to become an exception to that rule. It is possible, and I know we can do it. But it will be a lot of work.

I would love to see some kind of colarboration among rust-belt cities to improve the image of this region. That would be good for everyone.

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Thank you, David, for that post. Very good points. A lot of those are issues we here in the Pittsburgh forum care strongly about.

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I got the impression that much of the declines in Northeast Ohio were primarily inner city declines-Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron, Canton, Lorain and the inner ring suburbs of Cleveland-Parma, Euclid, Cleveland Heights. Medina County continues to grow as does Portage and slowly Geauga and Lake. The steel industry's decline was just as detrimental to the region as it was to Pittsburgh and I think much of the declines are a result of a birth deficit, only a larger outmigration is still occurring. Buffalo and Rochester are experiencing similar problems, particularly Rochester-Buffalo has yet to truly rebound. Detroit is bleeding population from both the city and the region, suburbanites are not fleeing nearly as rapidly and some areas are growing, but it seems most leaving the city of Detroit are completely leaving the region, after experiencing a small rebound in the suburbs during the 90's. Much of rural Western Pennsylvania and Upstate New York are experiencing a birth deficit like Pittsburgh. The massive immigrations gains many large cities made during the 90's have bypassed the Rochester-Detroit corridor as well. New York City is one of the fastest growing inner cities due to immigration and natural increase, otherwise there is outmigration to Florida(primarily retirees) and New Jersey and Connecticut(suburban flight). The Long Island suburbs-Nassau and Suffolk and Hudson Valley suburbs-Westchester and Rockland are growing very slowly as Newark and Jersey City are revitalizing.

Pennsylvania has been growing slowly since the Great Depression, with the only large increase being in the late 40's to early 60's-the Baby Boom years. Johnstown, Altoona, and Scranton all peaked in size in the 1920's, predating the "Rustbelt" declines often cited as happening in the 70's and 80's.

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All true, except that the Pittsburgh region really is not experiencing any more out-migration than the average city. It just doesn't get enough in-migration to make up for the unusually high death-to-birth ratio.

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