Wilmington and NC MSA metro areas projected populations in 2030

[TLT]

Here is the 2006 estimated populations for census designated MSA ( Metropolitan Statistical Area) in North Carolina and the 2030 projections. Wilmington moves up a couple of spots.

North Carolina 8,856,505..................................12,090,083

MSA............2006 population........... MSA..........2030 projected population

Charlotte......1,583,106...................Charlotte.....2,426,982

Raleigh...........994,551....................Raleigh.......1,763,806

Greensboro......685,378...................Greensboro....872,098

Durham...........464,389...................Durham.........624,593

Winston Salem.456,614...................Winston Salem596,583

Asheville.........398,009...................Asheville........515,825

Hickory...........359,856...................Wilmington...493,205

Fayetteville.....341,363....................Hickory.........429,001

Wilmington....326,166...................Fayetteville...425,411

Greenville........165,776....................Greenville......219,871

Raleigh and Durham were separated in to different MSA's after the 2000 census. If they should later be rejoined, they would almost be as large as Charlotte by 2030. Here is the link to see what counties are included in each MSA (as of Dec. 2006) and a link of each NC counties projections for 2030.

Census defined MSAs

NC counties population projections 2030

[willrusso]

Jesus on the main line!!! I can only imagine what the CSA numbers will look like by then.

[CapeFearRiver10]

Here is the 2006 estimated populations for census designated MSA ( Metropolitan Statistical Area) in North Carolina and the 2030 projections. Wilmington moves up a couple of spots.

North Carolina 8,856,505..................................12,090,083

MSA............2006 population........... MSA..........2030 projected population

Charlotte......1,583,106...................Charlotte.....2,426,982

Raleigh...........994,551....................Raleigh.......1,763,806

Greensboro......685,378...................Greensboro....872,098

Durham...........464,389...................Durham.........624,593

Winston Salem.456,614...................Winston Salem596,583

Asheville.........398,009...................Asheville........515,825

Hickory...........359,856...................Wilmington...493,205

Fayetteville.....341,363....................Hickory.........429,001

Wilmington....326,166...................Fayetteville...425,411

Greenville........165,776....................Greenville......219,871

Raleigh and Durham were separated in to different MSA's after the 2000 census. If they should later be rejoined, they would almost be as large as Charlotte by 2030. Here is the link to see what counties are included in each MSA (as of Dec. 2006) and a link of each NC counties projections for 2030.

Census defined MSAs

NC counties population projections 2030

[TLT]

The new 2006 population estimates also brings new MSA projections for the year 2030.The new projections have changed Wilmington's population estimate in the year 2030 to 523,674 compared to last years estimate of 493,205, up over 20,000. Charlotte lost about 160,000 in the latest projections, Raleigh gains about 63,000 and the state over all gains about 180,000. Interesting numbers, wonder why Charlotte's population estimates went down so much? The rest of the MSAs stayed about the same as last year.

[CapeFearRiver10]

The new 2006 population estimates also brings new MSA projections for the year 2030.The new projections have changed Wilmington's population estimate in the year 2030 to 523,674 compared to last years estimate of 493,205, up over 20,000. Charlotte lost about 160,000 in the latest projections, Raleigh gains about 63,000 and the state over all gains about 180,000. Interesting numbers, wonder why Charlotte's population estimates went down so much? The rest of the MSAs stayed about the same as last year.

[davidals]

I think Charlotte will continue to have a large jump on population compared to other cities. Thats pretty dense if Wilmington ever reaches those numbers which I believe is possible. I also think "The Triad" will be a big hub soon & will make "The Triangle" & "The Triad" even in population maybe a 100k difference. I know Fayetteville, Burlington, & Roanoke Rapids are the sleepers for the state. Now I have a question are these population projection taken when they know all the development is coming or all these prediction just a hard guess.

[TLT]

^

My guess - regarding your question - is as follows:

I would expect that the foundation for the estimates comes from a growth curve - look at the trend in past decades in a specific place, figure out the rate of increase and specifically how fast that rate has (or hasn't) accelerated as you get closer to present day.

Add in variables: what are the main industries or forces driving growth in a specific region/place. What have those industries or drivers done in past decades, and what are the likely to do 5-10-15-20 years down the road? How diverse is the economy in an area? Is that diversity expanding, and are the major employers (who would concievably attract new workers into an area) all in the same economic sector? How much land is available for future expansion? In that area (and in the city in general) how dense are land use patterns, and how will this change in future decades?

All guess work, but basically you're attempting to chart multiple trends (both up and down), tie them together, and project them outwards.

[NcSc74]

I see the "edge" counties really gaining in population and spillover development in the years coming. All of these eastern NC counties with abundant land will be the bait these developers are looking for to exploit to make some cash. As long people are willing to commute then 30-40 miles is nothing considering that it take just as long to go 20 miles in a city full of traffic than 40 miles with almost none at all. I know plenty of folks who commute to Raleigh from Goldsboro. The Garner-Clayton area has pretty much hinged on those commuters. Once the new port opens I see the same effect happening on Brunswick and New Hanover counties.