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Charlotte Residential Tower Rumors


appatone

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I was kind of getting at this point yesterday when Dubone posted that article from Chlt.com. It said a large percentage (I can't remember for sure but like 1000 of 1300 units released for sale) so far have been bought. I too think that sales will fade a bit. But they will always pick up in the years to come as more people move to the city. I also think this thing will feed off of itself. As more people move into highrises downtown and there are more things to do downtown, (stores, restaurants, etc.) downtown will become more appealing causing more people to want to live there. I am just waiting for this first wave of condos to be built and see what happens from there.

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what a great example, vancouver, one of the densitest CBDs for a city its size, I love that city, how I would love to become that beautiful canadian city.

So how much of these towers do you think will happen, there has to at least be a couple, and can you highlight any of the areas? for instance any of the specific hated parking lots going away.

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Hahahaha......well a lot of them have already been mentioned on here at least briefly.

This does make a good segway into.....what is something hideous that might go away with some yet to be "officially" announced projects.

1. Rennaisance Place

2. 222 S. Church

3. Parking lot near 222 S. Church (can't say more)

4. Adams Mark Hotel parking lots

5. Polk Bldg. parking lots

6. Another Levine Parking lot (not Twelve)

7. BP station and surface lots at Elizabeth and Hawthorne

8. 300 S. Tryon

9. Wachovia condos

Hmmmmm.....those are the only ones I can think of getting rid of a surface lot or hideous building.....

I'm not sure how many of those can be built.....I'd like the idea of demand compounding. I do know that there is demand for the 3 apartment towers currently in the planning stages, but I don't know if any of them will make sense financially for the developer.

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Well, even though in general, I'm starting to get nervous, I think there are circumstances in which 25 towers wouldn't be such a big deal. If some of them are Courtside-sized, they really only have 100 units, not 250. But even if the average is 250, and total number of planned units is really 7000, I think that is workable. Some of those will certainly be in Dilworth and SouthEnd, which are actually a very different market. I think there are quite a few people willing to live in a tower in Dilworth that wouldn't live uptown.

Also, I doubt all 7000 units would flood the market at once. Some projects would probably be like 615 E Morehead, which get rumored for a while but never make it to a marketing phase. There would be some like Citadin which are planned to hit the market in phases over the next 5 years. There might be others that have enough financial backing to wait 2 years to sell, like The Vue. Some will be Furman projects, which sell out fast due to an incredible name brand and waitlist. Others will be Novare projects, which also sell out fast due to name brand and relatively low price points.

Also, I think I can see Furman's comments about how many tens of thousands of high price point units get planned in the suburbs. Why couldn't 7000 units go in uptown with 95% of them at prices between 200k and 600k. There is a national trend toward urban living, with high gas prices and smaller family units, there is also momentum just having uptown suddenly being much more interesting and liveable than a few years ago. If the price point stays within reason, I believe 7000 units spread over the next 3 or 4 years is not that big of a deal.

(I reserve the right so say the opposite at some point in the future :) )

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Well, even though in general, I'm starting to get nervous, I think there are circumstances in which 25 towers wouldn't be such a big deal. If some of them are Courtside-sized, they really only have 100 units, not 250. But even if the average is 250, and total number of planned units is really 7000, I think that is workable. Some of those will certainly be in Dilworth and SouthEnd, which are actually a very different market. I think there are quite a few people willing to live in a tower in Dilworth that wouldn't live uptown.

Also, I doubt all 7000 units would flood the market at once. Some projects would probably be like 615 E Morehead, which get rumored for a while but never make it to a marketing phase. There would be some like Citadin which are planned to hit the market in phases over the next 5 years. There might be others that have enough financial backing to wait 2 years to sell, like The Vue. Some will be Furman projects, which sell out fast due to an incredible name brand and waitlist. Others will be Novare projects, which also sell out fast due to name brand and relatively low price points.

Also, I think I can see Furman's comments about how many tens of thousands of high price point units get planned in the suburbs. Why couldn't 7000 units go in uptown with 95% of them at prices between 200k and 600k. There is a national trend toward urban living, with high gas prices and smaller family units, there is also momentum just having uptown suddenly being much more interesting and liveable than a few years ago. If the price point stays within reason, I believe 7000 units spread over the next 3 or 4 years is not that big of a deal.

(I reserve the right so say the opposite at some point in the future :) )

Buildings aren't like stocks. You need significant cash outlay up front by someone, and that someone is usually pretty cautious. Usually. I would think they would largely self-regulate by projects failing to launch due to lack of interest, not to perhaps the point of where prices will keep increasing, but to the point where there shouldn't be a calamatious drop in prices. Barring, of course, some larger economic malaise where the actual buyers themselves start going under. But, everyone's got to live somewhere and I don't think most people can sell at much of a loss. I just wouldn't count on earning the year over year increases that have characterized the CBD in the past five years.

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Good point about the percentage of investors buying into the early stages of a lot of these projects. How many units do you see listed on MLS right after they are finished with construction? In many cases, I would guess, you have one investor purchasing several units at a time. Does this artificially inflate the appearance of Uptown condo demand?

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Good point about the percentage of investors buying into the early stages of a lot of these projects. How many units do you see listed on MLS right after they are finished with construction? In many cases, I would guess, you have one investor purchasing several units at a time. Does this artificially inflate the appearance of Uptown condo demand?

It does. I anticipate that if growth in prices slows that will stop very fast. I think there are about 23 listed in Courtside, but half of those are under contract. Ten percent. Seems fairly sustainable.

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Well, it looks like Trump is interested in another southern market: Atlanta. In a very short period of time, he has made plans to build in Dallas, New Orleans, Tampa, Atlanta, and Miami. I've also heard rumors that he (his team really) is actively scouthing a lot of southern cities for potential towers. Now I know this is a long shot, but if he wants to build in Tampa, then why not here? I know the water thing and such, but what about a Trump Tower Charlotte? I could see a 55 story tower somewhere on Church/ or Trade. Maybe even on the South LRT line near the new Wach. Project. :lol:

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According to this article: http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/business/14477816.htm

1000 of the 1300 uptown highrise condo units on the market are under contract. Most of those came on the market in the past year. There are only about 1200 announced highrise units planned so far to come on the market in the next two years. I hardly think that ~100-200 units for another highrise will cause saturation.

What should be considered incredible is to think of the sheer volume of sales compared any other area in Charlotte or North Carolina - perhaps almost any other place outside the largest cities in the USA. Here's what I mean: If we think of downtown (the area inside the Brookshire and Belt Freeways) as one neighborhood 1000 - 1300 sales in one year is truly epic. I manage a mixed-use, mixed-housing product, neighborhood that is geographically very large. Our sales were among the highest in the region. Last year agents sold 165 units. Of course we have a lot more competition in the "suburban" housing market - but still, if one was managing a neighborhood called "Uptown" - those sales numbers (1000 - 1300) would be considered incredible.

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  • 3 months later...

Wasn't sure where to put this, but CCCP has updated thier baseball website to include individual investment dollars per project for 3rd Ward.

Here is the table.

I tried to do some math, based upon current averages.

We have talked about 300 S. Tryon before, but this shows $133M. That seems pretty consistent with a 300,000 sq. ft. office tower and 200-225 residential units in a 40-45 story tower.

The Power Building and Packared Building together would add $545M in development. At the average condo price value in Uptown at $275k, that's 1981 units. Assuming all three towers are of equal size, that's almost 500 units per tower....that's some big towers, though my gut feeling is that the Packard site will be a mixed use tower including some office space (which costs more per square foot that residential space).

The site at 4th and Mint (currently owned by Roger Stack aka Preferred Parking) would be a $70M investment. I believe this will be a luxury APARTMENT tower, which would average about $180k per unit in value. That's 389 units. Considering it's a two acre site, that would be probably a 25-30 story tower.

The back side of Trademark is expected to have $40M invested. Almost certainly condos, so that's another 148 units. Since it would need it's own parking deck, it should boost this tower to 13-14 stories on that size parcel.

Just some speculations.

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545m for the power building site, thats a huge development.

I'm liking all of these #'s. ummm, go third ward...

So much for everyone that likes to keep saying the area around stadiums in general including ours is "dead space" and destined to be so. It was just a matter of time...this on the north end from the stadium and Beazer w/ 20 acres to the south.

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So altvr, your findings show a great deal that could be done in third ward. now all we have to do is hope for at least some, if not all of these plots can be developed into true urban neighborhoods. in my opinion, third ward is the next big "district" to be thought of for development, and i mean prime, first-class development, not the shoddy kind like we are getting with the Park. i really hope this becomes the "stadium district," much like the area around Petco Park in San Diego feels, with hotels, offices, retail, homes, and a great vibe. to me, that's what's most lacking in uptown. oh well, here's to 2010.

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  • 1 year later...

Hahaha....yeah, Spectrum messed me up by doing two towers instead of 1, but I'd say the office space and condo count were pretty spot on :)

Novare also messed me up by adding a 4th tower that was dedicated for office....hence I overshot on the condo estimate.

It seems to me, that Twelve will probably be delayed a bit, but I still expect it to happen since they are sinking a bit of money into infrastructure costs (mostly the parking deck). 222 S. Caldwell will probably be delayed a bit further out. I don't see the rush to tear down an office building to build 400 more condos in the next 3 years.

I'm just surprised that we haven't heard of an apartment tower announced in 3rd Ward yet.

I suspect that a lot of condo towers that have been in the works (but not yet announced) probably won't be announced until 2009-2010. I think developers are a little nervous, and would like to see the job growth (from the new office towers) as well as the new inventory get burned through.

I think it will be a smaller bump than most expect, and developers would be wise to keep things in the works ready to announce at the first moment of optimism. I'm also thinking N. Tryon will take off during the next cycle....I also predict we will see some true condo high-rises in South End on some of the UMUD parcels, but this won't happen until things pick up as well.

The order of the day for the next 2 years will be smallish (low- to mid-rise condos) is prime locations and serving niche markets.

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In most places, yes, but there are some random parcels along Morehead and in South End that there is no height limit. The furthest south from Uptown that there is no height is where the American Community Bank branch is on South across from McDonald.....random question, does anyone remeber the name of the diner that used to be where that bank branch is now? I keep think Copper St. Diner, but I don't think thats right.

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