2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NCB]

The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially started today, and just like last year, we'll have a pinned thread at the top of the page specifically for news and updates on tropical storms. Hopefully, however, this thread won't be too busy.

[NCB]

This didn't sit empty for long!

Tropical Storm Barry is expected to move into Florida sometime tommorow night. It will most likely be a major rain-maker more than anything, which is great as such much of Florida and Georgia is drought-stricken.

[dan326]

I hope not too much happens. We sure as heck don't need anymore hurricanes.

[richyb83]

Thanks for getting the 2007 season started. Like you said Nate, Tropical Storm Barry will give some much needed rain to drought-stricken Florida. Did yall see how low the water is in the Everglades?? And some of those forest fires in southern Georgia will be put-out too.

Sub-tropical storm Andrea started a few weeks before the season even started; just off the Atlantic coast. Tybee Island GA had some beach erosion; that was about it.

Yall are right, hopefully this will be a slow thread.

[ironchapman]

We Georgians are kind of looking forward to having TS Barry hit land, if it follows the course suggested in the pic you posted because it could bring some much needed rain to our state. It could also help douse some of the wildfire raging in South Georgia.

[SlidellWX]

Barry is the perfect type of tropical system. Not much wind, but a ton of beneficial rain. This is a good storm for FL and GA.

[richyb83]

I realize this is the "Atlantic Hurricane" thread...but a rare thing happened on the other side of the World.

Cyclone Gonu hammered on Oman and then headed toward southern Iran this past week.

It was the "strongest" Cyclone to threaten the Arabian Peninsula since records were kept in 1945. It was much stronger in the Arabian Gulf and got weaker by the time it made landfall wrapping in the drier desert climate. Still death and destruction happened in Oman. This could also affect oil price$

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/...lone-gonu_N.htm

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/06/06/afr...orm.4-70547.php

[richyb83]

It's August....and the tropics are becoming a little more active.

Tropical Storm Chantal, named yestrday morning, is already history as it races out in the northern Atlantic. No big deal.

Eyes are on the eastern Caribbean with an area of disturbed weather near the Leeward Islands...Air Force Reconaissance Plane flew into it today and found a weak mid-level low. They are saying this could become a Tropical Depression in a few days??

There is a weak-low forming along a stationary frontal boundry in the northerrn Gulf that will be monitored over the next several days.

[SlidellWX]

I'm not worried about the low in the Carribean. There is alot of dry air affecting that system...and that's not going anywhere fast.

There is the potential for a low to develop along the old frontal boundary in the Gulf, but it will be too close to land to really amount to anything. It may be able to obtain depression status...and dump a ton of rain...but that's about it.

[richyb83]

Thanks for the imput/updates Slidell WX. Yeah neither system is much to worry about; I tend to post the systems that have flights looking(to watch), or have potential to even become a depression.

I hope that's all thats ever posted this season. Nothing major.

[NCB]

William Gray Lowers '07 Hurricane Estimates

Article

Hurricane researcher William Gray lowered his 2007 forecast slightly Friday, citing cooler water in the Pacific and more atmospheric dust from Africa in predicting 15 named storms and eight hurricanes off the East and Gulf coasts of the U.S.

[richyb83]

Hey SlidellWX... what's yourt take on newly formed T.D.# 4 still way out there in the Atlantic?? The model I just saw has "Dean" becoming a Cat.2 Hurricane near the tiny volcanic island of Montserrat(Leeward Islands) by the weekend??

Will the strong high-pressure that's dominated the region over the past couple of weeks hold up and keep this away??

As always, thanks for your expert input.

[SlidellWX]

As of now...TD 4 will either hit Central America or the Mid-Atlantic States. It all depends on how deep a trough gets over the Western Atlantic in about 5 days. If the trough is deep enough it will curve northward. Otherwise...it will ridge under the ridge and into Mexico. Based off the data I've seen...it looks like our strong ridge will still be over the area next week. We should just keep an eye out on the system over the next week...and see how things shape up.

[richyb83]

Thanks SlidellWX, we will definetly keep an eye on Dean.

In the meantime..T.D.#5 formed(23.3 N; 91.1 W) this evening in the south central Gulf of Mexico. It's a weak little system(30mph) that will bring more uneeded rain to south Texas. Tropical Storm Watch in effect from Freeport TX to NE Mexico. Erin will be the name. Should not have too much effect on Louisiana. They are saying this system has 36-hours til it makes landfall.

http://batonrouge.cox.net/cci/newsnational...validatearticle

[NCB]

Most models still have Dean heading towards Mexico, but there are still a few that have it coming towards Louisiana, and some have it heading towards Houston. What are you thinking, Slidell?

[richyb83]

Wow, did Dean turn into a monster fast or what???

The rapid intensification deepening 49 millibars in just 24 hours yesterday evening is very impressive!

Actually all the models have cleared Louisiana.

If it were to track along the GFDL Model(blue) "northern-most" to south Texas it's still possible the coastal sections of Louisiana could see some tropical storm wind gust huh SlidellWX??

That's the same model that had pinpointed Louisiana yesterday...so it looks encouraging!

[tombarnes]

While it looks better than it did yesterday, I would remain wary of this storm. Many things can and do happen to storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The thought of another big hurricane is soething I'm sure most in Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas are not wanting to contemplate right now, but this could still do many things.

[eastover neworleans]

We'll have to wait until sunday to see what will happen, anything can happen once it hits the gulf. It seems like New Orleans won't have anything to worry about, but I could be wrong....Houston has alot to worry about though, my cousin lives in Houston and he's telling me that the residents are getting prepared. They were asked to stock up on gas , in case of an evacuation he said there were also people getting wood for their homes. Like I said, we have to wait until Sunday and Monday so see what will happen.

[SlidellWX]

The upper level low is trucking westward in the Gulf at the same speed as Dean and will be over TX by the time it hits the Yucatan. As the low pulls westward...the ridge over FL will build over the Gulf protecting the northern Gulf Coast. All of the global dynamical computer models are picking up on this trend and handling it well. The GFDL model was a huge outlier earlier, and was pretty much discounted by me and everyone else in the office. It didn't fit with what was actually happening at the time. This hurricane will most likely end up in Northern MX and may affect the Brownsville/McAllen area with tropical storm force winds.

[SlidellWX]

Well...we've got Hurricane Felix this morning. Everything is pointing toward a landfall in Belize or Honduras at this time. A big ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic and Gulf should remain in place through at least next Thursday based off what I've seen today.

[richyb83]

Simply unbelievable how fast Felix got cranked-up to Cat.#5 with 165mph winds and gust nearing 200!!!

I know it's still too early, but there seems to be more of a hook northward in the 5 day window than Dean was. Looks like after crossing the Yucatan it could hit Brownsville?? Hope that high-pressure continues to do it's job.

[richyb83]

Thankfully for Honduras, Belize, Mexico, etc. Felix has weakened down to 135mph. Still a major hurricane; but maybe they avoid catastrophe??

[tombarnes]

I certainly hope so. Things did not look too good for them earlier today, but they may have dodged a bullet.

[richyb83]

Wow! Just named today; Humberto is already a strong T.S. with winds of 65 mph. Expected to cross SE Texas coastline early Thursday morning. Good thing this system is running out of real estate or it would become a hurricane! Southwest La. including Lake Charles will see some squally weather. The frontal system coming from the north early this weekend has computer models disagreeing. Some have Humberto riding along the front to northern Alabama, & Ga; others have it hooking down north of Jackson MS back down to La?? A big rain maker for many.

Tropical Depression #8 well east of the islands is expected to become Ingrid.

[Rardy]

Wow! Just named today; Humberto is already a strong T.S. with winds of 65 mph. Expected to cross SE Texas coastline early Thursday morning. Good thing this system is running out of real estate or it would become a hurricane! Southwest La. including Lake Charles will see some squally weather. The frontal system coming from the north early this weekend has computer models disagreeing. Some have Humberto riding along the front to northern Alabama, & Ga; others have it hooking down north of Jackson MS back down to La?? A big rain maker for many.

Tropical Depression #8 well east of the islands is expected to become Ingrid.