Augusta Metro next new county

[augga706]

Im wondering what will be the next county to become part of the metro? The last few days while driving around augusta for some reason i was looking at cars licensed plates. I think augusta gets more tourist than ppl who live here think. Not really our fault when the masters publicity outweights every other event. I was surprised i thought it would mostly be sc tags other than ga's but i saw ny, tx, nc, tn, & fla tags downtown(aug best mid-size city nightlife) even though its no hurricane in fla, along with other states licensed plates in augusta. While on I-20, 520, & in the city the counties that had the most cars i saw besides of course richmond, columbia, aiken, burke, & mcduffie are # 1 jefferson or lincoln, #2 wilkes,

#3 washington, #4 screven, #5 warren or mccormick. There were some others who had a few glascock, jenkins, emanuel, taliaferro, hancock, also laurens county does anybody no where that is i have never heard of it on the news or anything so it must be a good distance away. Augusta is becoming a medium-size atlanta, with people willing to drive 1,2, or 3 hrs even to get the city. I would pick lincoln since it probably has the most ppl in augusta everyday

[Topher1]

I'll have to pull up the link a little later, but the commuting stats the census uses for MSA calculation are publicly available online. From what I remember from those stats:

Barnwell and Lincoln are the closest to meeting the criteria. McCormick isn't too far off either, but it still has more commuters to Greenwood, SC than to Aiken or Augusta. None of these counties are "on the cusp" of being added to even the CSA, so don't expect any changes before census 2010.

[socaguy]

Is there any way we can close the other 4 threads....Mods???

Id pick Mcormick btw....

[Pillsbury]

yeah, McMormick for me as well. It's right across the river on Fury's Ferry and seems a natural place for growth.

[Topher1]

I'll try to keep this post non-convoluted. These stats are from census 2000, so clearly there are changes in commuting patterns, but this is the most recent info available. All of the populations used will be from census 2000 as well for consistency. When I use the term "core counties," I'm referring to Richmond, Columbia, and Aiken.

Definitions: There is some fluidity to the MSA/CSA definitions, but it revolves around commuters. For MSA's, 25% of a county's workforce must commute to the core counties of the metro OR 25% of a county's jobs must be taken by commuters from the core counties. Those numbers are 15% for CSA's I believe. However, these numbers are not set in stone, and social ties are considered too. For example, Aiken Co doesn't meet the 25% commuting requirement, but is part of the MSA for obvious reasons. Finally, a certain percentage of a county must be "urbanized" before it can join an MSA.

McCormick Co: Total workforce of 3,602. Total commuters to core counties is 447 (including Edgefield this time) or about 12% of the workforce. While this seems significant, keep in mind that McCormick sends far more commuters to Greenwood and Abbeville. Those counties receive a total of 973 commuters, or 27% of McCormick's workforce. If Greenwood/Abbeville combine to form an MSA, they're likely getting first dibs at McCormick over Augusta. Here's a list of non-metro counties with a significantly higher commuter presence in the area than McCormick: Barnwell, Saluda, Orangeburg, Lexington, Richland, Jefferson, Lincoln.

Barnwell Co: Total workforce of 10204. Total commuters to core counties is 1,546, or 15.2%. Realistically, Barnwell could have already been added to the CSA, as it already meets the criteria. However, since Barnwell and Aiken share SRS, as SRS weakens, this tie may also weaken.

Lincoln Co: Total workforce of 3,637. Total commuters to core counties is 804, or 22%. Lincoln could also realistically be added, however, I doubt the population of Lincoln meets the threshold for "urbanization."

Jefferson Co: Total workforce of 6,747. Total commuters to core counties is 697, or 10%. Jefferson is still a ways off.

No counties beyond these were seeing significant commuting numbers.

Interesting observations: 57% of Columbia Co's workforce commutes into Augusta or Aiken. 44% of Edgefield's workforce commutes to the core counties. Only 17% of Aiken's workforce, or about 11,700 people commute to Augusta or Columbia Co. However, a fairly small, but still statistically significant number of Aiken Co workers commute into the Columbia core counties (Lexington and Richland). Those 2 counties see 2,500 Aiken commuters.

[Topher1]

Oh, and all stats from from the US Census 2000.

http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/commuting.html

[socaguy]

Id think that before Greenwood/Abbeville ever formed a MSA, Augustas spill over growth along the river on and off hwy 28 in Mcormick County will be greater (in population) than the city of Mcormick. There are already housing developments that have recently been built right on the border on the SC side, and this part of Mcormick County is only growing. If we see another 4-5 large subdivisions go up in that area, we may get Mcormick before we think.

[augga706]

i agree augusta will definitely add mccormick before greenvile/abbeville form a MSA, but arent saluda, orangeburg, lexington, richland, already part of columbia,sc MSA. The next county since those are 2000 is probably lincoln, jefferson, mccormick, barnwell, since the percentage is higher now.

[Topher1]

^ Lexington and Richland are the core Columbia counties. There are quite a few more, but Orangeburg and Saluda aren't included (and won't be for a while if ever). Columbia's furthest northwest reach is Newberry Co., which is included in the CSA. It's pretty easy to envelop a sparsely populated county like Lincoln Co. for Augusta, but a somewhat heavily populated county that has historically had it's own industry and commerce, such as Orangeburg takes a lot more to gain.

[augga706]

wikipedia says columbia added 4 more counties in 2003 fairfield, calhoun, kershaw, & saluda. Now their MSA is the largest in the south carolina. Columbia metropolitan area with the newberry micropolitan area forms the Columbia Newberry CSA which is 741,533.

Columbia,sc metropolitan counties richland, lexington, fairfield, calhoun, kershaw, saluda 703,771

Augusta, ga metropolitan counties richmond, columbia, aiken, edgefield, mcduffie 525,000 i notice that burke isnt included thats very strange i thought it was part of our MSA

It will be intresting to see what city gets orangeburg first

[PJA]

wikipedia says columbia added 4 more counties in 2003 fairfield, calhoun, kershaw, & saluda. Now their MSA is the largest in the south carolina. Columbia metropolitan area with the newberry micropolitan area forms the Columbia Newberry CSA which is 741,533.

Columbia,sc metropolitan counties richland, lexington, fairfield, calhoun, kershaw, saluda 703,771

Augusta, ga metropolitan counties richmond, columbia, aiken, edgefield, mcduffie 525,000 i notice that burke isnt included thats very strange i thought it was part of our MSA

It will be intresting to see what city gets orangeburg first

[erm1981]

^^^If you follow the official 2000 census the Greenville-Spartanburg-Anderson MSA is at 1.2 million and is the largest in South Carolina. They did a revision a few years ago but the last "official census" has GSA as being the largest. We will have to see in 2010 if they split spartanburg and anderson up from Greenville kind of like they did Raleigh and Durham. Greenville is still experiencing incredible growth and is the most populated county in SC. Just thought i would add that in for craps and giggles.

[augga706]

Augusta, Ga & Columbia, Sc should form a msa or csa it would attract more businesses & corporations since the msa would be 1.5 or so million. There is alot of construction happening on I-20 btw augusta & columbia. More construction than ever before its takin place on I-20 at one point near n. aug its construction for like 15-18 miles straight with more construction in little pockets near lexington, graniteville, & aiken. Does anybody know if most of this construction is for the I-520/palmetto pkwy or is more homes like the ones in graniteville. The palmetto pkwy should have flyovers also with all the construction takin place like the I-20/520 interchange.

[Topher1]

I'm not aware of any construction along I-20 at the Aiken exits (18, 22, and 29) nor any at the Wagener exit. I haven't driven to Cola in a while so I can't speak for Lexington Co. The Graniteville exit (11?) and North Augusta exit 5 are the only ones in Aiken Co. that I'm aware of any significant construction. Even still that's a marked change from the past trends in Aiken Co., where development tended to steer away from I-20.

The SCDOT website has some enormous PDF's of the Palmetto Parkway interchange. It's pretty massive but I don't think it gets any higher than 2 levels at a time. I actually stitched together the pdf's in photoshop a while back, but it's a HUGE and unwieldy file. I'll post it in the transportation thread if anyone wants to see an absurdly detailed layout for the parkway.

[augga706]

i drove to columbia its not excatly at one of aiken's exit its btw near n.aug at one point its like a long road of construction in aiken county closer to n.aug. Its alot on both sides on i-20 near or in n.aug alot of acres are going to be gone. Yeah exit 5 has a couple of tractors but this construction is movin trees along i-20 is not at a exit.

[socaguy]

While we are on the topic of I-20 and exit 5 in SC and North Augusta, are they still planning on building that Walmart Neighborhood Market at that Interchange? Anyone know?

[krazeeboi]

It will be intresting to see what city gets orangeburg first