Granby Tower

[Telmnstr]

It may take a little longer, but I believe this project will resume. If it makes anyone feel any better (and I doubt it will), there were a few workers on the site on Saturday. Just talking but talking as if they were maybe prepping for a restart. As for the misinformation: yes, there has been some, but mostly it's been a lack of information. But for people to claim that Gaddams never had a loan in the first place, I find that ridiculous. Even the paper said the loan fell through. If it was never in place, then what fell through? Certainly there have been challenges, but I wish the absurd claims could be left for pilotonline.

Yea, but if you get a loan isn't it normally yours? I mean, when I bought my car I got a loan from the Credit union, and they gave me a check. I didn't go to the dealership and pick out a hot whip, broke out online printouts of what I should pay, and haggle... to have the bank say "Uh huh huh yea... we changed our mind."

It would seem to me if you get a loan, you GOT a loan....

I'm still head scratching over that earlier post about the whole thing being a move to milk more money from the gov't with the courthouse expansion, then they didn't buy. If there was some sort of proof or something that would be interesting.

When GT was first announced, you had speculators in many cities camping in tents to get their purchase in. Just like Playstation 3s at Christmas. Even if you have to hold the apartment empty for a year to meet the contract it wasn't a big deal. It's easy to forget those days, but it was only a few years ago.

How many actual sales have been made in like the last year? What percentage is back from the mania days?

I wonder how many people who have contracts are secretly hoping for it to fail?

I've heard one report (friend of a friend of a friend) of someone who bought with the goal of resell, who didn't realize in the fine print it says you have to wait a year or two (the idea is that the builder doesn't want to compete with specuvestor in sales).

If the prices were lower it would probably work. $800K for an apartment is nutty.

I have a pimp view from my pad, and here is a secret. Every once in a while you're like ahhhhh so pretty. But 99% of the time, past the first week, you are used to the view and it's not really new.

[urbanlife]

They cleared the lot, moved utilities, and after a delay started driving piles. It looked like it was going to go through, then work abruptly halted.

About how many piles would you say they have driven?

My guess is thanks to negative media support, they probably lost a few potential buyers which dropped them below the number they needed to keep the loan healthy and now have hit a point where they need to come up with the money lost to keep it. Chances are he is working with the bank to put other properties on that he owns on the loan to help pay for this building. That takes some time to negotiate and do the paper work for. You will probably see work start back up by the end of the month. They are too far along with this tower to stop...granted, that doesn't mean it can't be cancelled.

In Boise, Id there was a tower that was suppose to be the city's new tallest, but things fell through and the developer pulled out and left their downtown with a whole block hole in the ground where the parking garage would of went. They were stuck with it for 6 years, I think something just got built in it, but I am not sure.

[urbanfan]

About how many piles would you say they have driven?

My guess is thanks to negative media support, they probably lost a few potential buyers which dropped them below the number they needed to keep the loan healthy and now have hit a point where they need to come up with the money lost to keep it. Chances are he is working with the bank to put other properties on that he owns on the loan to help pay for this building. That takes some time to negotiate and do the paper work for. You will probably see work start back up by the end of the month. They are too far along with this tower to stop...granted, that doesn't mean it can't be cancelled.

In Boise, Id there was a tower that was suppose to be the city's new tallest, but things fell through and the developer pulled out and left their downtown with a whole block hole in the ground where the parking garage would of went. They were stuck with it for 6 years, I think something just got built in it, but I am not sure.

In the range of 400+. Financing for construction projects is much different then going out and getting a personal loan or car loan. There are strings attached. On top of that, some loans require certain progress thresholds before the next phase of financing will be released. Please do not use understanding of home, personal and car loans, and try to relate them to construction loans. Totally different beasts.

[Telmnstr]

About how many piles would you say they have driven?

My guess is thanks to negative media support, they probably lost a few potential buyers which dropped them below the number they needed to keep the loan healthy and now have hit a point where they need to come up with the money lost to keep it.

It's $400,000+ dollars for a small apartment. There just aren't that many affluent people. All the young professionals I know, that work in good jobs, can't afford it. You have to really be wealthy, because people who just make enough will (hopefully) want to get the most for their money, and a condo probably isn't it.

In Texas you can get fully bricked (all the way around, not just the front) 3000sqft McMansions for like $250K.

Don't forget, the closing of the Ford plant wiped out a bunch of good paying jobs too.

Someone posted that there was a news spot on TV about it, and that all of the people interviewed sounded like they didn't intend to live in the tower, just wanted the birdhouse for an investment. That was a post on craigs I believe, I didn't see the interview. I can believe it though.

That is ALOT of money for housing... and it's odd. You basically have rich people housing in an area that would be attractive to the less well off young people.

Is 411 Granby even full?

[Telmnstr]

In the range of 400+. Financing for construction projects is much different then going out and getting a personal loan or car loan. There are strings attached. On top of that, some loans require certain progress thresholds before the next phase of financing will be released. Please do not use understanding of home, personal and car loans, and try to relate them to construction loans. Totally different beasts.

Gotcha, I can understand it being based on performance... but if you have the loan it would seem odd to me that the lender would reneg.

In terms of incomplete projects, I heard in a previous real estate crash the skyline of one of the foreign countries was left with skeletons of half completed condo and office buildings. I can't remember if it was kuala lumpur or what.

Speaking of nutty, I crawled into bed a bit early last night. I fired up the projector and hacked xbox (it acts as a video player on the network) and randomly picked a documentary from the fileserver to watch as I dozed. The particular one had mention of the great depression, and it was like holy crap. Basically it said that the gov't generated too much money which was lent to people on loans that they could not service, which led to banks failing. It was dead on with the current conditions. The documentary was from 1996, and was obviously dumped from VHS. I think it's called Money, banking and the federal reserve and can be seen on youtube or google video. A younger Ron Paul was even in it. (It could be gold bug propaganda, not 100% sure). Just know that the one part caught my attention.

[urbanlife]

It's $400,000+ dollars for a small apartment. There just aren't that many affluent people. All the young professionals I know, that work in good jobs, can't afford it. You have to really be wealthy, because people who just make enough will (hopefully) want to get the most for their money, and a condo probably isn't it.

In Texas you can get fully bricked (all the way around, not just the front) 3000sqft McMansions for like $250K.

Don't forget, the closing of the Ford plant wiped out a bunch of good paying jobs too.

Someone posted that there was a news spot on TV about it, and that all of the people interviewed sounded like they didn't intend to live in the tower, just wanted the birdhouse for an investment. That was a post on craigs I believe, I didn't see the interview. I can believe it though.

That is ALOT of money for housing... and it's odd. You basically have rich people housing in an area that would be attractive to the less well off young people.

Is 411 Granby even full?

Oh wow, they closed the Ford Plant? That must of been a serious blow for the region. I remember when I lived there the Ford Plant was one of the few plants that Ford owned that was turning a profit.

The biggest problem you will find with projects like these and developers is that cities like Norfolk needs developers building projects that are selling units from 150k to 300k and ranging from 600sq ft to 1400sq ft. For starters units would sell faster and drive up the demand for more housing creating a profit for buyers and in turn create a market that developers are comfortable to build in. The problem is that developers tend to lose out on more money to be made, this is where the city would have to come in to lower and almost eliminate any of the taxes and added expenses the developer would usually have to pay in hopes of making that money back through property taxes on the new owners. Now if this plan was done and you do start to attract young couple, old couples, and young families, it begins to change the dynamics of the area and the amenities that are needed for them. Which in turn pushes up the demand for retail and restuarants and grocery stores.

In all honesty a downtown these days needs very little office space to survive. It is about changing the make up of the city to create a new dense neighborhood in a metro that provides amenities that the rest of the city cannot provide.

Trust me, if Norfolk actually did that plan, you would be looking at a completely different city in ten years. I would be willing to bet on it.

[vdogg]

Oh wow, they closed the Ford Plant? That must of been a serious blow for the region.

Not as much as was originally thought. We barely even felt it, and most of the jobs have already been absorbed.

[rusthebuss]

Not as much as was originally thought. We barely even felt it, and most of the jobs have already been absorbed.

Well it really takes a year or 2 to really feel that

[wrldcoupe4]

I'd imagine the biggest hurt from the plant closing will be on supporting industries in the area.

[Telmnstr]

Not as much as was originally thought. We barely even felt it, and most of the jobs have already been absorbed.

One of my coworkers is ex-ford. He still has a big check coming to him. He was able to secure a new but far less paying job (I don't know how much he makes now, but his earnings before were very, very high (worked lots of hours and overtime). He will flat out tell you that many of the workers will never find employment like they had. Some have left are in the process of leaving. For instance, have moved but much of their stuff is still here in HR (including NC).

I don't think all of the employees have been absorbed and everything. It will take time to play out, and with the payouts many of the people will be able to live a few years (depending on how they handle it).

I'd imagine the biggest hurt from the plant closing will be on supporting industries in the area.

From what I can tell, the direct salaries were very very good. Like $60-80K and such for line workers (don't get me wrong, they worked their tails off).

They won't find similar employment.

[burt]

One of my coworkers is ex-ford. He still has a big check coming to him. He was able to secure a new but far less paying job (I don't know how much he makes now, but his earnings before were very, very high (worked lots of hours and overtime). He will flat out tell you that many of the workers will never find employment like they had. Some have left are in the process of leaving. For instance, have moved but much of their stuff is still here in HR (including NC).

I don't think all of the employees have been absorbed and everything. It will take time to play out, and with the payouts many of the people will be able to live a few years (depending on how they handle it).

From what I can tell, the direct salaries were very very good. Like $60-80K and such for line workers (don't get me wrong, they worked their tails off).

They won't find similar employment.

Some may want to contact Phillip Morris. The company is closing its huge plant in Concord, NC and offering transfers to all 2400 employees to Richmond. Most probably won't make the move, so its likely there'll be plenty of jobs paying $17 to $29 per hour (+ overtime) at the plant on I-95 south of Richmond.

[johnhowell]

Is this project dead or what?

[virginia pe]

The housing market's main raw materials are wood and concrete, both of which have seen sharp falls in prices. How much wood do you think they're using to build Granby tower? I certainly hope not a lot. Steel? Yes. China and India need steel and other raw materials? Yes. Europe's economy finally picking up? Yes. That's why raw material prices haven't collapsed.

They will be using a lot of wood to build Granby Tower. It is a concrete structure. The cost of formwork for a concrete structure can be as much as 50 percent of the total cost for the concrete work. And much of the formwork is wood. Of course, the majority of the cost for formwork, like most other elements of construction, is labor.

Actually, the price of cement is up over the past twelve months. A good source for construction prices is Engineering News-Record. If you are a subnscriber, you can get a tremendous amount of information, but even non-subscribers can pick up some tidbits. Here's a link:

http://enr.construction.com/features/conec...centindexes.asp

[Telmnstr]

They will be using a lot of wood to build Granby Tower. It is a concrete structure. The cost of formwork for a concrete structure can be as much as 50 percent of the total cost for the concrete work. And much of the formwork is wood. Of course, the majority of the cost for formwork, like most other elements of construction, is labor.

Actually, the price of cement is up over the past twelve months. A good source for construction prices is Engineering News-Record. If you are a subnscriber, you can get a tremendous amount of information, but even non-subscribers can pick up some tidbits. Here's a link:

<a href="http://enr.construction.com/features/coneco/recentindexes.asp" target="_blank">http://enr.construction.com/features/conec...centindexes.asp</a>

Thanks for that link! Futures prices don't exactly correlate to market prices and what not. I don't really understand it. I know that there are stories of lumber mills laying off people because of drops in demand for product, trimming back shifts and what not.

It will take a long time, but the death of residential real estate will cause problems in many markets. The sheer loss of the wealth effect alone affects the psychology of the consumers. A huge percentage of the GPS was propped by people extracting money from their homes (the housing ATM) and blowing it on things. Nothing like paying for a car with a 7 - 10 year service life for 30 years.

[Telmnstr]

I was posting about Granby Tower on a ... basically the most excellent thing on the web. That is, Ben Jones Housing Bubble Blog (www.thehousingbubbleblog.com). Been a reader since the beginning. Anyways, I was reminiscing on the disclaimer on the information card they have you sign.

When thinking about it more indepth, I say let the thing burn. I say that anyone who put a deposit is a frigging MORON. When you go to a store, if the sales person tells you a bunch of stuff about a product that isn't true, you are not going to be happy.

So why is it okay for there to be a disclaimer that whatever the sales ladies say about the Granby Tower could be wrong? I understand that conditions may change, but to invest that much money in a product that has an absolute wild card... "Anything we say may be a lie" .... Forget it. Only an idiot would go for that.

I *could* be wrong, but I'm 97% sure that is what it had on the bottom of the information card. That the sales people do not represent the builder and that things are subject to change or differ or some crap. THEY DO REPRESENT THE BUILDER.

[rusthebuss]

This isn't the place to spread your Housing bubble propaganda! Give it a freakn rest dude

[vdogg]

1 month and 10 days later and still nothing happening. I drove by today in the hopes of seeing at least a hardhat or two doing some menial work. I'm about ready to pronounce the time of death on this patient, lets hope something actually *happens* in the next week instead of another update article.

[ace707]

1 month and 10 days later and still nothing happening. I drove by today in the hopes of seeing at least a hardhat or two doing some menial work. I'm about ready to pronounce the time of death on this patient, lets hope something actually *happens* in the next week instead of another update article.

Sorry man but that may be a premature decision on your part. This past Friday, I decided to drive by the site around 1 pm and despite the rain, to my shock, drove by three workers at the site with red hardhats on and one of them was lugging a ladder on his shoulder. Perhaps vertical construction will start soon?! lol I wasn't sure they were doing but just hold on a bit. I wasn't expecting to see anything and was feeling like you vdogg but it was definitely a huge and pleasant surprise for me so hopefully its a sign of things to come. Sorry I didn't post this sooner but I've been VERY busy the last few days. But better late than never...

[spiker3]

Sorry man but that may be a premature decision on your part. This past Friday, I decided to drive by the site around 1 pm and despite the rain, to my shock, drove by three workers at the site with red hardhats on and one of them was lugging a ladder on his shoulder. Perhaps vertical construction will start soon?! lol I wasn't sure they were doing but just hold on a bit. I wasn't expecting to see anything and was feeling like you vdogg but it was definitely a huge and pleasant surprise for me so hopefully its a sign of things to come. Sorry I didn't post this sooner but I've been VERY busy the last few days. But better late than never...

It's tidbits like this that have ballooned our hopes for two years now, and while they feel great in the short term, literally everytime has turned out to be incorrect or shadow games or nothing. While i'm hoping against hope for this project, three guys on site does not fill me with optimism or encouragement. And vertical construction? Would be my last assumption. I'd go with new developer representatives or bank surveyors, but definitely not an immintently resuming construction.

As for financial news, like i said before, as soon as Gaddams (if he ever does) line up new financing he HAS to release a press release, marketing, etc, to combat the overwhelming negative perception this project has. All the luxury in the world gets you nowhere if your demographics want nothing to do with your project. As soon as anything happens, we'll hear about it through the Pilot, i'm sure. It won't be activity randomly starting back up on the site. So until we get a press release/news article, any person seen on site or a piece of equipment being moved or turned on means nothing, unfortunately.

[ace707]

It's tidbits like this that have ballooned our hopes for two years now, and while they feel great in the short term, literally everytime has turned out to be incorrect or shadow games or nothing. While i'm hoping against hope for this project, three guys on site does not fill me with optimism or encouragement. And vertical construction? Would be my last assumption. I'd go with new developer representatives or bank surveyors, but definitely not an immintently resuming construction.

As for financial news, like i said before, as soon as Gaddams (if he ever does) line up new financing he HAS to release a press release, marketing, etc, to combat the overwhelming negative perception this project has. All the luxury in the world gets you nowhere if your demographics want nothing to do with your project. As soon as anything happens, we'll hear about it through the Pilot, i'm sure. It won't be activity randomly starting back up on the site. So until we get a press release/news article, any person seen on site or a piece of equipment being moved or turned on means nothing, unfortunately.

The whole "vertical construction" line was pure sarcasm. I'm not stupid to think that a 15ft long ladder is a sign of vertical construction of a tower that will stand 490ft. Additionally, I'm not trying to say we're close to construction resuming. Whether there are 3 workers or 30 workers on the site, someone has given them orders to be there and someone is paying them to do whatever they're there for. My point was to say that yes, I am feeling down and worried that we won't go beyond what's already done, but when I get lucky and see people on that site doing something, it shows that at least, even if financing doesn't come thru, in the time till we find that out, someone is out there with some cash and some priority to get any work done that can be done despite a possibility of a project cancellation. At least someone is in the background of all this mess is trying to handle his business the best way he can in this type of situation. I posted that earlier bit to put my two cents, not to put a blind eye on everyone by making them think we're on the verge of construction resuming but to re-iterate that little by little something must be going on that site even if we never see it because it happens once a week for an hour.

[spiker3]

The whole "vertical construction" line was pure sarcasm. I'm not stupid to think that a 15ft long ladder is a sign of vertical construction of a tower that will stand 490ft. Additionally, I'm not trying to say we're close to construction resuming. Whether there are 3 workers or 30 workers on the site, someone has given them orders to be there and someone is paying them to do whatever they're there for. My point was to say that yes, I am feeling down and worried that we won't go beyond what's already done, but when I get lucky and see people on that site doing something, it shows that at least, even if financing doesn't come thru, in the time till we find that out, someone is out there with some cash and some priority to get any work done that can be done despite a possibility of a project cancellation. At least someone is in the background of all this mess is trying to handle his business the best way he can in this type of situation. I posted that earlier bit to put my two cents, not to put a blind eye on everyone by making them think we're on the verge of construction resuming but to re-iterate that little by little something must be going on that site even if we never see it because it happens once a week for an hour.

Sorry if my reply came off biting, i was worried it might appear that way. I wasn't tryin to scorn you or put you to shame, it was more directed at random appearances from workers and equipment on the site, but nothing ever happening as a result. Obviously appreciate the news, and you reporting it, just warning about being encouraged by yet another random appearance. Apologies if it came off as an attack or towards you.

[Chesapeake Pirate]

I wonder what the business arrangement is with the piledriving equipment, and how long it will remain on site if construction remains suspended?

[urbanfan]

I wonder what the business arrangement is with the piledriving equipment, and how long it will remain on site if construction remains suspended?

It really depends on the ownership. If it is an outside pile driving company, then marathon is paying daily for those pile drivers to be sitting there. However, if they are owned by Turner Construction, than this would not be the case.

[virginia pe]

It really depends on the ownership. If it is an outside pile driving company, then marathon is paying daily for those pile drivers to be sitting there. However, if they are owned by Turner Construction, than this would not be the case.

The pile drivers are owned by Ford Pile. The piling subcontractor gets paid for the number of piles driven, not for the number of hours his pile driver is on the site. The pile driving was expected to last into November, so Ford Pile committed the equipment to GT for that period. They would have to schedule their work assuming the three drivers were not available for another job. Now that GT is on hold, there is no place else that the pile drivers are needed, so they sit at the GT site. They have to sit somewhere, and the GT site is just as good as Ford's yard in Virginia Beach. It is very expensive to demobilize (take apart the pile drivers, load the pieces onto trucks, and move them off-site), and then store the disassembled equipment in their yard. They would rather just let them sit there until construction resumes at GT or until they are needed elsewhere. If they are needed somewhere else, then they will demobilize from the GT site, move to the new jobsite, and reassemble the pile drivers there, and save the cost of off-loading and storing in their yard.

Ford Pile may have a claim against Turner for lost profits during this downtime, but that is for the lawyers to argue about.

[nedlilly]

New mini-story in Virginia Business magazine, dated today:

http://www.virginiabusiness.com/edit/news/...1030_buzz.shtml

More than a month after major construction stopped on Granby Tower, the developer of the $180 million high-rise condominium project in Norfolk says it has lined up a new lender. "We have our new lender, and we are waiting to close," Jason Dodd, vice president of marketing for Marathon Development Group, told Virginia Business.

Dodd wouldn't disclose the lender's identity. However, he says the project is a go, with five new contracts sold in the last few weeks. "When the financing fell through, our sales didn't stop," said Dodd. According to him, about half of the project's 302 units are sold, with buyers required to put down 10 percent of the value of the unit's purchase price. "We're at $80 million in sales."