Economic Trends in NWA

[andrewjensen]

Here's an interesting tidbit- in today's ADG Business Matters there were reported 85 single family home building permits issued the week of July 16-20 in the Big 4 citites in NWA. In Bentonville alone, 41 were issued. This isn't unusual as each week I've seen numbers close to that total. Granted most are for less than $175,000 but the amount of activity seems to run against the common view that there is a major slowdown in the local economy.

I guess it could indicate that this one segment of housing is still in demand and higher dollar housing and commercial is down, but it is a good sign that things aren't quite as bad as some people want to think.

affordable housing will sell all day in this market. that segment got left behind in the rush to cash in on $250K+ price points and demand still far outpaces supply at $180 and under.

[Mith242]

I certainly agree. I know high real estate prices hurt keeping the price of homes up. But I still would like to see some denser neighborhoods come about. Not only would the density be nice for our urban area, squeezing more houses onto smaller lots also makes it more able to keep home prices down. I guess I'm still surprised to see how big lots around here still are. Seems like any other metros I see(granted I'm talking about outside of Arkansas), you see houses on much smaller lots.

[Aporkalypse]

I certainly agree. I know high real estate prices hurt keeping the price of homes up. But I still would like to see some denser neighborhoods come about. Not only would the density be nice for our urban area, squeezing more houses onto smaller lots also makes it more able to keep home prices down. I guess I'm still surprised to see how big lots around here still are. Seems like any other metros I see(granted I'm talking about outside of Arkansas), you see houses on much smaller lots.

All of that land up there is the problem. Other than retirees concerned about lawn maintenance, few people would be interested in small lots with the land abundance. In larger cities' suburbs where land is at a premium the lots can be quite small even on new construction but I can't ever see that jiving in NWA though I agree with you that I'd like to see it. It sure does make things spread out. Builders and developers are trying to give people what they want, though.

[Mith242]

All of that land up there is the problem. Other than retirees concerned about lawn maintenance, few people would be interested in small lots with the land abundance. In larger cities' suburbs where land is at a premium the lots can be quite small even on new construction but I can't ever see that jiving in NWA though I agree with you that I'd like to see it. It sure does make things spread out. Builders and developers are trying to give people what they want, though.

But it seems to me that if people want houses under $300K then developers will have to start doing something like this. I don't see land prices going down. Of course what will probably be more likely to happen is developers just keep going further and further out instead. Which of course raises prices and keeps forcing things out. But eventually you'd think people are going to end up spending just as much money on fuel costs instead of putting that money towards an actual home.

[Mith242]

Here is an interesting link posts in the Fayetteville topic. I thought I'd put in in a more general topic dealing with the rest of the metro.

Northwest Arkansas deemed "Recession Proof."

http://www.nwaonline.net/articles/2008/05/...essionproof.txt

Interesting article. It is true, Wal-mart does do well when the US economy is down. Then when the economy is good other aspects of the metro kick in. I'm not sure I'd call it recession proof, but it is an interesting dynamic.

[Mith242]

Thought I'd bring up this old topic. Numbers were released about the average income of NWA. It increased about 4.6% but we're still below the national average. Although none of the cities in Arkansas are above the national average either. In 2006 the average income was $29,807 and in 2007 it went up to $31,191. But it looks like we're still about $7,000 below the national average. It's going to take a while to reach the national average unfortunately. Especially when you consider that growth 2008 is still projected to increase but at a slower rate.

[andrewjensen]

Thought I'd bring up this old topic. Numbers were released about the average income of NWA. It increased about 4.6% but we're still below the national average. Although none of the cities in Arkansas are above the national average either. In 2006 the average income was $29,807 and in 2007 it went up to $31,191. But it looks like we're still about $7,000 below the national average. It's going to take a while to reach the national average unfortunately. Especially when you consider that growth 2008 is still projected to increase but at a slower rate.

those stats should be viewed in the context of the cost-of-living index. The Fayetteville MSA's is 10 percent lower than the national average, which does offset some of the difference in average income.

[Mith242]

those stats should be viewed in the context of the cost-of-living index. The Fayetteville MSA's is 10 percent lower than the national average, which does offset some of the difference in average income.

Interesting point I hadn't really considered.

[Mith242]

NWA took a big drop in the Milken Institute rankings. After being in the top ten for so long we'd been dropping down a bit in recent years. But we took a pretty big drop this time, down to 57th. Ironically Little Rock took a big jump up and are actually ahead of us now at 54th. Ft Smith is at a respectable 69th as well.

[Mith242]

Well everyone knows that the economy is bad and growth around the area has slowed down. But it's not all bad as it might seem. Our metro is still showing job growth unlike most of the country. It is slower now than it was before but still nice to see some growth going on. The biggest hit to our job growth has been losses in the manufacturing area. We've netted around 1,800 jobs so far this year. I believe our peak period was around 2004 to 2005 when it was around 6,000. That was also when we saw our highest population growth as well. During 2004 to 2005 we were adding around 1,200 new people a month. Now that seems to have dropped down to under 400 a month. Sounds like some economists are saying our area should be okay the next couple of years despite the trend of the national economy. While in some ways it's not great to see things slowing down it does give our metro a chance to catch it's breath and maybe try to catch up on some things. Seems like overall the biggest thing I've noticed is that now that it's harder for developers to get loans from banks development talk has really slowed down.

[butttrumpet]

Well everyone knows that the economy is bad and growth around the area has slowed down. But it's not all bad as it might seem. Our metro is still showing job growth unlike most of the country. It is slower now than it was before but still nice to see some growth going on. The biggest hit to our job growth has been losses in the manufacturing area. We've netted around 1,800 jobs so far this year. I believe our peak period was around 2004 to 2005 when it was around 6,000. That was also when we saw our highest population growth as well. During 2004 to 2005 we were adding around 1,200 new people a month. Now that seems to have dropped down to under 400 a month. Sounds like some economists are saying our area should be okay the next couple of years despite the trend of the national economy. While in some ways it's not great to see things slowing down it does give our metro a chance to catch it's breath and maybe try to catch up on some things. Seems like overall the biggest thing I've noticed is that now that it's harder for developers to get loans from banks development talk has really slowed down.

Where did you get this data?

Its interesting. Honestly, I'm glad to see some slowdown. Hopefully we'll maintain a more managable growth level so that our infrastructure can catch up. 400 people a month is still 50k people over a decade. Thats healthy growth without being overwhelming.

[Mith242]

Where did you get this data?

Its interesting. Honestly, I'm glad to see some slowdown. Hopefully we'll maintain a more managable growth level so that our infrastructure can catch up. 400 people a month is still 50k people over a decade. Thats healthy growth without being overwhelming.

Mostly out of the newspaper. They cited some info from the internet as well. But after doing a quick search I'm not pulling anything up at the moment.

[hogwash]

Wal-Mart will be cutting 700-800 jobs from the home office.

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.as...94.54928.124439

[Mith242]

Wal-Mart will be cutting 700-800 jobs from the home office.

http://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article.as...94.54928.124439

That was really surprising news. Overall Walmart has been doing okay during this bad economy. I wonder if this is a sign they expect things to worsen later this year. Or maybe this move was coming eventually no matter how the economy is.

[zman9810]

In spite of all the bad economic news lately there are some good things happening locally. CaseStack, the logistics and outsourcing company that came to Fayetteville recently, announced they will be hiring several people to fill positions. They have moved to One Steele Plaza so it's good that that building is getting tenants. Several other green companies see a bright future in the area and with the nationwide movement towards sustainablity these companies will help NWA become a player in that movement. Here's a good article about the local happenings in the new green economy.

NWA Times article

[Mith242]

In spite of all the bad economic news lately there are some good things happening locally. CaseStack, the logistics and outsourcing company that came to Fayetteville recently, announced they will be hiring several people to fill positions. They have moved to One Steele Plaza so it's good that that building is getting tenants. Several other green companies see a bright future in the area and with the nationwide movement towards sustainablity these companies will help NWA become a player in that movement. Here's a good article about the local happenings in the new green economy.

NWA Times article

True, and you figure the green companies will benefit from Obama being President as well.

[Mith242]

Fayetteville and Rogers, Rogers in particular, showed declining sales revenue so far this year. While Springdale and especially Bentonville showed increases. In part it's thought people are shopping closer to home. That and Fayetteville and Rogers have more high end shops whose sales have dropped more with the current economy.

[Mith242]

Big increase in housing sale for NWA in February. Too soon to get too excited that the economy might be finally looking better. But it's still a nice sign to see. I haven't heard any specific numbers. Overall the housing slump has been worse in Benton County. Although of course that's where a lot of the growth was happening earlier as well.

[Mith242]

Looks like all the NWA cities were down in sales tax revenue for January. Although the big ice storm certainly do help matters. Betonville dropped 17.4% from $753K to $622K. Springdale dropped 12.4% from $836K to $732K. Rogers dropped 7.6% from $879K to $812K. And Fayetteville managed to only drop 2.9% from $1.224M to $1.189M.

[Snaple4]

Coody and his "Spend in Fayetteville" thing should be re-emphasized. I try to do all my spending in Fayetteville if possible. I even go a little out of my way to stay living in Fayetteville. I just hope our current Mayor and Administration does not discourage this type of behavior, be it indirectly or directly.

[zman9810]

It looks like things may be looking up around NWA. Bentonville issued almost $23 million worth of building permits May 11-15. Along with a $4.3 million commercial project on S Walton it looks like Lindsey is building another complex in town. It was very surprising that there were quite a few single family homes valued over $200,000 permitted also. The rest of the area didn't fare as well but it's still an encouraging sign of a turnaround.

[zman9810]

Wow.....Bentonville issued another $34 million worth of permits the week of May 18-22. A large portion of that is for Crystal Bridges but there were several for single family homes over $200,000. These must be custom built homes- I can't imagine anyone building spec houses at that price in this market.

Fayetteville did show up with almost $6 million in permits- one large one for a what I think is The Village at Scull Creek, a residential facility for individuals with disabilities that will be located behind Sam's on Garland.

[Mith242]

Wow.....Bentonville issued another $34 million worth of permits the week of May 18-22. A large portion of that is for Crystal Bridges but there were several for single family homes over $200,000. These must be custom built homes- I can't imagine anyone building spec houses at that price in this market.

Fayetteville did show up with almost $6 million in permits- one large one for a what I think is The Village at Scull Creek, a residential facility for individuals with disabilities that will be located behind Sam's on Garland.

Thanks for the info. I hadn't heard about The Village at Scull Creek. But I had heard some recent info about Crystal Bridges. It's certainly a big project.

[Mith242]

I heard a little about this yesterday but got more info today. Apparently Forbes is picking NWA as the second best metro that will recover from the current economy. I looked on the Forbes website and couldn't find their actual list I've seen on the tv news and newspapers though. But apparently we're second behind Austin.

I did find another list we made on Forbes as the 4th best metro for businesses and careers.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/25/best-citi...ces_lander.html

[Architect]

I heard a little about this yesterday but got more info today. Apparently Forbes is picking NWA as the second best metro that will recover from the current economy. I looked on the Forbes website and couldn't find their actual list I've seen on the tv news and newspapers though. But apparently we're second behind Austin.

I did find another list we made on Forbes as the 4th best metro for businesses and careers.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/25/best-citi...ces_lander.html

In a related matter, of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, the Brookings Institute ranked Little Rock the 7th-strongest economy in the country during the first quarter.

http://www.nwanews.com/adg/Business/262220/