Economic Trends in NWA

[Mith242]

That is an interesting map but it makes Washinton County look like it lost population- hopefully that's not right.

Yeah like I said earlier, I think it has a lot to do with the U of A. They've been pushing the Census Bureau to try to count the college kids here. But then as they graduate many leave and it makes it look like we have a lot of people leaving. That would be my guess. Because I doubt we've had a population drop. It probably slowed down when the economy tanked. But I just can't see things dropping off here like that.

[KJW]

Yeah like I said earlier, I think it has a lot to do with the U of A. They've been pushing the Census Bureau to try to count the college kids here. But then as they graduate many leave and it makes it look like we have a lot of people leaving. That would be my guess. Because I doubt we've had a population drop. It probably slowed down when the economy tanked. But I just can't see things dropping off here like that.

Mith, that indeed was a great link that was furnished.

What would also be interesting, if one could find it, would be a comparison of inbound/outbound moving destinations from, say, 1980 - 2010 of Benton/Washington.

Back in the 80s when we moved here after college, there were so many Arkansans moving to Texas that you would have thought Austin was the Natural State capital. I know there's still movement down there, but things have changed quite a bit...I've talked with graduates of the UA who say there's (duh on me for saying it) a lot more opportunity here, and students staying after graduation now vs years ago from what they understand. On the negative side (if you can call it that) seems like there are a lot of Bentonville High kids who go out of state (beside Texas) for school where the Razorbacks used to command full loyalty. In my son's algebra class of 20+ kids, when the teacher asked for a show of hands of Razorback fans at school year beginning last year I swear there were only 3-4 who raised their hands. That might have been unheard-of back in the 80s, but...NWA was a different place then.

[thewizard16]

Mith, that indeed was a great link that was furnished.

What would also be interesting, if one could find it, would be a comparison of inbound/outbound moving destinations from, say, 1980 - 2010 of Benton/Washington.

Back in the 80s when we moved here after college, there were so many Arkansans moving to Texas that you would have thought Austin was the Natural State capital. I know there's still movement down there, but things have changed quite a bit...I've talked with graduates of the UA who say there's (duh on me for saying it) a lot more opportunity here, and students staying after graduation now vs years ago from what they understand. On the negative side (if you can call it that) seems like there are a lot of Bentonville High kids who go out of state (beside Texas) for school where the Razorbacks used to command full loyalty. In my son's algebra class of 20+ kids, when the teacher asked for a show of hands of Razorback fans at school year beginning last year I swear there were only 3-4 who raised their hands. That might have been unheard-of back in the 80s, but...NWA was a different place then.

Dynamics have changed in where students go to college. NWA still represents a huge group of incoming students for the university each year (much larger group than in the 80s numbers wise of course, but I doubt it's a larger percentage of the overall student body than it was in the 80s), but more students (everywhere) are looking farther away from home for college. The average student applies to 7-12 colleges now, far more than the one or two of 15-25 years ago. The college search process has changed and students are looking at a wider variety of colleges and locations than ever before. I don't blame them, I didn't want to live a few miles from home and go to college, I wanted to go somewhere new and experience a new area. What is interesting about all of this is that the UofA is a far better school now than it was in the 80s. Of course, it was a much smaller school, and much more of the student body was in-state. Although the enrollment figures for in-state students has certainly risen (as the state grows and the university reaches out to where they actively recruit even the smallest AR high schools now), there are vastly more out-of-state students attending Arkansas than in the 80s, or even 10 years ago for that matter. A lot of their growth has been out-of-state, and will continue to be from out-of-state. Now that the University has been a top-tier research recognized university for over a decade, perception and reputation is constantly improving, and the interest in the university will continue to increase from students living farther from the university. Ultimately, I think the influx of students coming to the U of A from out-of-state is good for the area and the state as a whole. They may not be tax-paying residents of the state, but they rent, eat, and shop here. They also are more likely to look for jobs in the state and stick around and contribute to the state's economy and education levels than someone who hasn't been exposed to Arkansas and what NWA has to offer. The University has gained over 4,000 students in the last ten years, but the number of students from Texas has quadrupled, Oklahoma has doubled, Missouri, Kansas, and Tennessee have tripled, but the number of students from Arkansas has only increased 9.8%.

[jdevers]

That is an interesting map but it makes Washinton County look like it lost population- hopefully that's not right.

Part of that is a side of effect of U of A combined with the IRS not tracking anything less than a ten person net move. In effect, colleges tend to collect from all over but more of the outward movement is to cities only. I know this was stated earlier, but the ten person limit REALLY exaggerates this as I can pretty much guarantee at least a couple people moved here from every county in the state, but a lot of them get left off. If thirty of those then move to KC, it shows up as a net loss of thirty instead of a wash or even a small gain.

[Mith242]

Well Arkansas certainly didn't do well in the newest rankings from the Milken Institute. NWA dropped from 27th last year to 43rd. But NWA is back on top in the state. Little Rock had passed up NWA last year. But Little Rock and FT Smith saw even bigger drops. Ft Smith having the second biggest drop from 62nd to 150th. Little Rock not far behind with the 6th biggest drop from 23rd to 93rd.I also thought it was ironic the 'other' well known Fayetteville (NC) has now jumped above us as well.

http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/bpc2010.pdf

[Mith242]

Earlier in the week a lot of local leaders got together to talk about NWA and a study that was done on the region for future growth. Overall the message wasn't really anything new that we haven't already heard. One being that the area needs to work together as a region rather than a bunch of separate entities. One thing that gets mentioned is the percentage of college graduates in the area. It's not particularly high when compared to other areas. For that matter even with having the state's flagship university here NWA lags behind Little Rock. But I think overall is finding a way to keep the students here after they graduate. Many move elsewhere after they graduate. The U of A attracts a number of students from out of state so maybe a number of them plan to leave even if there's a possible job here for them. But I think more would consider staying if they could find a job in the area.

The area is obviously dominated by several companies. Walmart obviously being the leader with Tyson and JB Hunt as well. The study mentioned finding other businesses to locate offices here but ones that don't compete against the pre-existing ones. Once again to me seems sorta obvious. There are a lot of vendors in the area with local offices because of Walmart, and if Walmart really pushed for it there could obviously be more. But I don't think NWA leaders could really persuade Walmart to alter it's plans just to try to get more vendors in the area. I think Walmart is going to do whatever it think is best for itself.

The study mentioned promoting the sustainability related technologies and jobs. Once again I think many already know about this and have been trying with the Green Valley Network. The study mentions expanding the role of the university to strengthen technology based businesses. I think this is a big one. This would help create good jobs and also help keep graduates here. Maybe the question is more what can we do to help this process along?

One thing mentioned was to capitalize on recent investments in new hospitals to become a more of a regional health care destination. This is one thing I don't hear mentioned a lot. In part I think in the past the area wasn't big enough and there were other metros in the region close enough. But this really is an area I think NWA could work on. While it might be hard to try to compete with much larger metros like Tulsa. Honestly in some ways I think Ft Smith still competes rather well in this are with NWA. So obviously there's work to do in this area. I'm sorry to say this to any Ft Smith people but really NWA should really be establishing itself to overtake Ft Smith. But overall I think we know this metro has been rapidly growing and things like this are going to take a little time.

One more thing mentioned in the study was arts, entertainment and tourism. But I think this is one area that we all know is going to be changing very soon with the opening of Crystal Bridges. Crystal Bridges isn't just going to be a state draw or even a regional draw. I think Crystal Bridges is going to have enough going for it to be a national draw. It might take a little time after it opens but I think Crystal Bridges is going to really help in the arts/tourism area.

While I wouldn't say the study was a waste or anything. But overall I don't think there were really any big revelations in the study either. It might be more of a how do we find a way to accomplish some of these things. But at least we can try to get people in the area to discuss this and start looking for ways to help our metro continue to grow.

[bubba72704]

Great article today on nwaonline.com -- job growth levels have recovered to pre-recession levels -- and seem to be trending upward. In other words, the area had more jobs last month (over 211,000 jobs) than the highest totals back in the boom time of 2007 (around 210,000 jobs)!!! Unemployment keeps dropping (down to 5.4% this year in June vs. 7.0% last year). I know anything is possible, but it sounds like things around here are really going to get busy!!!!!!

[Mith242]

Great article today on nwaonline.com -- job growth levels have recovered to pre-recession levels -- and seem to be trending upward. In other words, the area had more jobs last month (over 211,000 jobs) than the highest totals back in the boom time of 2007 (around 210,000 jobs)!!! Unemployment keeps dropping (down to 5.4% this year in June vs. 7.0% last year). I know anything is possible, but it sounds like things around here are really going to get busy!!!!!!

Yeah things are certainly sounding better for the area. I don't we'll ever see another period like it was during the big boom. But nice to see the area coming back better than the over all national trend. Things especially seem to be looking good up in the Benton County area.