Sen. Graham in '08?

[Version70-8]

I was just wondering what you all thought about Sen. Graham's re-election chances in 2008? I read somewhere recently that with his support of President Bush's immigration bill causing his popularity in the state to drop sharply that more thought has been given by some Republicans to a possible challenge for the party's nomination in the primary. Can't remember the name of one of the possible contenders but it sounded like he could pose a serious threat for Sen. Graham if he chooses to run?

Personally, I'm a Democrat but just thought it was interesting to read about all of this.

What do you guys think are Graham's chances? I feel like with the state being solidly Republican that by the time the '08 elections come around, unless Graham does something else to displease his supporters, most people won't hold the immigration thing against him as much.

[whitehourseview]

It would be about useless for a Republican to challenge him for the nomination.

Graham has nearly $3 million in reelection funds. Unnamed opponent(s) have $0. The filing deadline for a Republican primary run is a few weeks after the GOP Presidential primary. That event alone will suck all the oxygen out of the room for pretty much anything, including what would be a bruising, ugly primary fight that won't happen.

Nearly 2 out of 3 GOP likely primary voters prefer Graham. For a realistic shot of beating him that number needs to be closer to 50 50. If that number hasn't moved by now, it's never going to move.

The hardest thing to do in politics is for a US Senator or Govenor or House member to be beaten in a primary. Graham has done very well acheiving a lot of connections with local politicians around the state. His constituent services are rated well.

Granted, his work on the recently defeated immigration bill will haunt him to some degree, but that's it.

As far as a Democratic challenger, in South Carolina, in a state where the GOP Presidential nominee will lead the ticket, chances are slim to none, lower than Alex Sanders run five years ago.

Probably a real high chance Lindsey Graham gets reelected next year, but I'm sure he'd like Jim Demint's popularity ratings just in case.

South Carolina campaign politics at the moment is about two things: the Presidential primaries and their role on the national stage, and the jockeying for position for the Governor/ state races in 2010, where everyone will await Greenville resident, and Canadian Amb. David Wilkins decision about running that year.

[monsoon]

Graham has nearly $3 million in reelection funds. Unnamed opponent(s) have $0. The filing deadline for a Republican primary run is a few weeks after the GOP Presidential primary. That event alone will suck all the oxygen out of the room for pretty much anything, including what would be a bruising, ugly primary fight that won't happen.

.....

[vicupstate]

In order to have a prayer of knocking off Graham, a 'name' opponent would have to run. Andre' Bauer's name has been mentioned. Fraankly, I can't believe he was re-elected after the speeding incident last year.

It would be an uphill battle for sure. Incumbency, and the President on your side, not to mention plenty of money, give Graham an edge regardless of the hardliners that oppose Graham. The National party will want no part of that either, because they will have there hands full as it is in other senate races.

It wouldn't be IMPOSSIBLE though. 2008 could be a year like no other in politics in a generation. The Democrats need to have a credible candidate lined up, just in case Graham were defeated in a primary.