Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

orlandonative

Current housing (condo, downtown, huouse, suburbs) discussion

80 posts in this topic

Eh...I don't know. It's by far the worst thing I've seen in my short career, but I wonder if others in the development world see it the same. Locally it's almost as if you have two seperate camps. On the one side there sits the folks who have taken off the rose colored glasses and have started to come to terms with what is going on and are generally becoming more skeptical. To little suprise these folks seem to be the ones that have taken the hardest blow. The other camp seems to be just meandering around and paying very little attention to what is going on. Things are going pretty well for these people, they're still buying homes, cars, etc. and all in all are generally insulated from loss. These types scare me. These seem to be the people that continue to drive the machine while the others seek correction.

All in all I still hold out hopes on some various projects around town. I have been taught to recognize the cyclic nature of things and as such I feel comfortable when I observe the wheels of change around here. Along with everyone else here I look forward to seeing the immeadiate and long term affects that our new venues and rail have on downtown. This is as an imporant time as any skyscraper boom that we could ever hope to experience. We are very fortunate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Eh...I don't know. It's by far the worst thing I've seen in my short career, but I wonder if others in the development world see it the same. Locally it's almost as if you have two seperate camps. On the one side there sits the folks who have taken off the rose colored glasses and have started to come to terms with what is going on and are generally becoming more skeptical. To little suprise these folks seem to be the ones that have taken the hardest blow. The other camp seems to be just meandering around and paying very little attention to what is going on. Things are going pretty well for these people, they're still buying homes, cars, etc. and all in all are generally insulated from loss. These types scare me. These seem to be the people that continue to drive the machine while the others seek correction.

All in all I still hold out hopes on some various projects around town. I have been taught to recognize the cyclic nature of things and as such I feel comfortable when I observe the wheels of change around here. Along with everyone else here I look forward to seeing the immeadiate and long term affects that our new venues and rail have on downtown. This is as an imporant time as any skyscraper boom that we could ever hope to experience. We are very fortunate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lets move on to commercial and civic constructions. Office buildings tend to look a lot more nicer than residential building anyway.

Anyhow, as a non construction related forumer here, I see that hotels constructions is picking up at I-drive and low rise shopping center is popping up in the entire metro outside of downtown. Tourism can really blanket the growth of Orlando.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
They scare me too. Everyone I consider to be knowledgable thinks it will get better before it will get worse. The only cheerleaders are some developers and realtors. But pull them aside and sometimes they will be candid with you. What they say in the paper about a project compared to what they will tell you is two different things. We should focus on quality of life issues as well as filling up our existing inventory. The big time construction projects will come around again. We still have not proven ourselves here in Downtown Orlando. Lets see how fast 55, Solaire, Camden, The VUe and the Paramount fill up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they are lower now but will not know until the end of the year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What are the numbers of people moving into the Orlando area each month? I think they were around 7 or 8 thousand? These people need to live somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What are the numbers of people moving into the Orlando area each month? I think they were around 7 or 8 thousand? These people need to live somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i can't really see this getting off the ground any time soon with the doom & gloom housing data coming out as of late, ranking condos dead last in amount of available inventory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


A lot of housing, condo, construction problems was being discussed in various thread. So I start this one so you guys can do your discussion here instead of take over other threads. Enjoy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was in the gym this morning and a couple guys from Hughes Supply were talking about possible layoffs. One of them said that he wished Hughes never sold to Home Depot, because they were always able to make money even during the slow times like right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Layoff?

I thought they are expanding and building stuff on Old Winter Garden Road.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Layoff?

I thought they are expanding and building stuff on Old Winter Garden Road.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As much as I hate to say it, I don't think we're anywhere near out of the current downturn. After a few months of looking at the market downtown for a place to live, I saw a significant number of homes/condos which had been for sale for over 120 days, and a surprising amount in the 200+ day bracket. With inventory that high in the downtown core, something has to give. That "something" is usually prices, and though they've come down a bit, they're still not at levels low enough to start clearing out inventory. High levels of inventory can (of course not always) work against new construction, and against bringing business in. Look at Baldwin Park's rough start as an example.

From what I've seen/heard, too much of the new downtown construction was purchased on speculation and so those units will likely sit empty as well until they are flipped. So while I think downtown Orlando is in good shape for the long-term, I still see prices coming down until that inventory clears. For now, I'm adding foreclosure properties to my list of candidates to see if I can find a "bargain" but I'm likely going to wait out the market for another few months. Downtown rocks, our city rocks, but our downtown condo pricing is currently a bit out-of-touch.

Just my $0.02, of course. Always curious what others are thinking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This might be a good thing for downtown (not for current owner, sorry).

If all these empty condo are done and they are not selling because of the price, they will have to lower their asking price. Hopefully around the area of 250K per unit. With the more realistic pricing, normal folks or middle class people can get into downtown condo market and start creating an area where people actually live in. This will eventually diversified downtown and attract normal business and not just high end+fancy restaurants like what we have now.

If they charge the right price, people will buy them. Example: Metropolitan.

High end houses are still selling but not sure if the same thing can apply to high end condo. I think we need a few big name companies downtown to start create high paying jobs with employee that can actually afford the downtown condo. You can build all the condo you want but people need a place to work to afford those condo. I said lets build super office buildings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


There isn't a person in the world that could convince me that the problem is nothing more than developers and sellers pricing themselves out of the market.

We still have demand, we just have extremely high prices and nobody is willing to come down, especially those who bought when prices were at their highest. If prices come down another $50K to $100, we'll see them flying off the shelves again. Yes, we are THAT overpriced right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
There isn't a person in the world that could convince me that the problem is nothing more than developers and sellers pricing themselves out of the market.

We still have demand, we just have extremely high prices and nobody is willing to come down, especially those who bought when prices were at their highest. If prices come down another $50K to $100, we'll see them flying off the shelves again. Yes, we are THAT overpriced right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This might be a good thing for downtown (not for current owner, sorry).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It doesn't even have to be a bad thing for current investors, just takes a different perspective. Real estate investors can survive a downward pricing trend by renting the property (if permitted to) and then selling it when the cycle shifts and prices go back up. It's just not the immediate flip people intended, but it can still be profitable in the long-term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would assume the expensive insurance and porperty tax also drive the housing down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

so what do you think about projects like verde & Tradition Towers? Think they have any more legs? I honestly will not be surprised if neither condo goes up in the near future. Both are supposed to break ground soon, but with the combination of excessive condo inventory, slumping state economy and overall grim housing data, i dont see how any developer would want to take a chance in this current market. As badly as i want to see TT take to the skies, I just dont see it happening. Ditto for verde.

add blue rose to my list as well

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Orlando is in trouble, what is in store for Miami?

I agree with sunshine, this is certainly an opportunity to focus on luring commercial/office and civic institutions into downtown. The city successfully employed (i would argue) the most successful downtown boom in the state. Now it is time for the market to mature. All these residents will need somewhere to eat, shop, play. Otherwise, they might as well be living in a suburb and drive everywhere.

I can see how the current slowdown could be troubling to those in the construction field, but I don't see how it comes as a surprise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
so what do you think about projects like verde & Tradition Towers? Think they have any more legs? I honestly will not be surprised if neither condo goes up in the near future. Both are supposed to break ground soon, but with the combination of excessive condo inventory, slumping state economy and overall grim housing data, i dont see how any developer would want to take a chance in this current market. As badly as i want to see TT take to the skies, I just dont see it happening. Ditto for verde.

add blue rose to my list as well

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My friend from NYC just bought 2 condo at south beach for 500K.

Miami has international reputation that I think will help them. European and south american will buy those condo. Orlando need to aggresively market their real estate to the Brit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
As much as I hate to say it, I don't think we're anywhere near out of the current downturn. After a few months of looking at the market downtown for a place to live, I saw a significant number of homes/condos which had been for sale for over 120 days, and a surprising amount in the 200+ day bracket. With inventory that high in the downtown core, something has to give. That "something" is usually prices, and though they've come down a bit, they're still not at levels low enough to start clearing out inventory. High levels of inventory can (of course not always) work against new construction, and against bringing business in. Look at Baldwin Park's rough start as an example.

From what I've seen/heard, too much of the new downtown construction was purchased on speculation and so those units will likely sit empty as well until they are flipped. So while I think downtown Orlando is in good shape for the long-term, I still see prices coming down until that inventory clears. For now, I'm adding foreclosure properties to my list of candidates to see if I can find a "bargain" but I'm likely going to wait out the market for another few months. Downtown rocks, our city rocks, but our downtown condo pricing is currently a bit out-of-touch.

Just my $0.02, of course. Always curious what others are thinking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.