Moody's predicts GR housing market bottom in 3rd Qtr 07

[GRDadof3]

A study done by Moody's that takes into account local mortgage rates, job outlook, current median home prices and other factors, predicts Grand Rapids' housing market will bottom out 3rd Qtr 07, with a total average price decline of -5.3%. Yowzers that's good news if true.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/19/real_estat...sion=2007091912

(#67)

Detroit is looking at 1st Qtr 09 with a -21.3% decline in values. For those who don't keep up on the housing market (local and national), this is great news for GR if Moody's gets it right.

[tamias6]

Would a fall in housing prices effect the property taxes, I.e., a home owner would pay less property taxes after a price drop than before?

[GRDadof3]

Would a fall in housing prices effect the property taxes, I.e., a home owner would pay less property taxes after a price drop than before?

[Rizzo]

What would happened if say a neighborhood was seeing a really large amount of homes on the market that weren't moving and just one house sold way below market price? Would that one closing greatly effect the overall salable value of homes in that neighborhood or future valuation?

[GRDadof3]

What would happened if say a neighborhood was seeing a really large amount of homes on the market that weren't moving and just one house sold way below market price? Would that one closing greatly effect the overall value of homes in that neighborhood or future valuation?

[AlexPKeaton]

I believe the city is doing a mass-reassesment as we speak. The timing probably couldn't be better if the final results come in at the bottom of our downturn.

[tamias6]

Prices have already dropped and my tax bill keeps going up. You have to formally appeal your tax assessment to the municipality in which you live, and show them sale comps in your area, and then they MAY adjust your assessment to where you think market value has fallen.

The Moody's report says our peak was 4th Qtr 05, which I'd say is pretty spot on. So they are saying prices will fall by about 5% (on average) to our bottom in the 3rd Qtr of this year, which would mean that most of the price hits have already been felt.

Ouch, I just read in that article that Saginaw will have a 31.8% price decline.

[Sailor]

Does anyone have any info on how accurate Zillow is for GR homes? If it's right, the so-called value (assuming we could sell) of our home jumped up nearly $20k in the past six months...with a City of GR address. Can't be possible.

[Rhino6885]

Does anyone have any info on how accurate Zillow is for GR homes? If it's right, the so-called value (assuming we could sell) of our home jumped up nearly $20k in the past six months...with a City of GR address. Can't be possible.

[GRDadof3]

Does anyone have any info on how accurate Zillow is for GR homes? If it's right, the so-called value (assuming we could sell) of our home jumped up nearly $20k in the past six months...with a City of GR address. Can't be possible.

[quoteme3]

Ouch, I just read in that article that Saginaw will have a 31.8% price decline.

[Rhino6885]

There are houses in Saginaw and Flint selling on EBAY for under 20k.

[thestranger]

Zillow is very inaccurate. I wonder how their value algorithms work. They seem way off for GR. I have heard that www.trulia.com is really good but have not had time to really check it out.

[hendervette]

I agree with thestranger, I would probably agree with thestranger about zillows values buuuut...they dont have my home in their system...or my whole city for that matter. I've used trulia, they're alright. I acutally prefer to use a website called www.housefront.com, if your looking for somewhere with a large databse of homes this website claims to have over 100 million homes and its really simple to use. So thestranger when you check out trulia, compare it with housefront they are both really good.

[GRDadof3]

I agree with thestranger, I would probably agree with thestranger about zillows values buuuut...they dont have my home in their system...or my whole city for that matter. I've used trulia, they're alright. I acutally prefer to use a website called www.housefront.com, if your looking for somewhere with a large databse of homes this website claims to have over 100 million homes and its really simple to use. So thestranger when you check out trulia, compare it with housefront they are both really good.

[hendervette]

GR, yeah I really like using them. I dont know if other real estate sites do this too but the great thing I like about them is the ability to use it with texting messaging.

[BigPlayJ]

Wow, that housefront is a great site hendervette (welcome btw!). I ran a search on our address and it's almost exactly what I would have thought based on homes like ours that have sold recently. Plus, it gives you a price range too.

[GRJunkie4Life]

Hate to play devil's advocate BigPlay, but the value of the house IS what you paid for it, not what it appraised for. If it were, without a doubt, worth what it appraised for, the seller would have never sold it to you for a discount.

[suydam]

Hate to play devil's advocate BigPlay, but the value of the house IS what you paid for it, not what it appraised for. If it were, without a doubt, worth what it appraised for, the seller would have never sold it to you for a discount.

[GRDadof3]

Well, I don't know if I would agree with that. I just ran my house through on that site and it priced it $18K below what I am selling it for this week. (Yes I sold my home in this market, and without a realtor too.)

I think we sold our house at about 8 to 10% below its true value. So maybe the Moody's article is correct and we are at the end of the downturn. I sure hope so.

Good news is the house I am buying appraised at $10K more than I am paying for it, so it is all probably evening out right now.

[BigPlayJ]

Hate to play devil's advocate BigPlay, but the value of the house IS what you paid for it, not what it appraised for. If it were, without a doubt, worth what it appraised for, the seller would have never sold it to you for a discount.

[AlexPKeaton]

I don't know if I'd say appraisers are being more conservative now, but more accurate. Appraisers have a lot of pressure on them from lenders and Realtors to make deals work, which means the appraisal usually comes back at the "target" level unless there are some major issues that the appraiser can't overlook.

Congrats on selling your house though. Even if you did accept less than you really wanted, without wasting money on commissions you probably came out alright.

[concretepoem]

I don't know if I'd say appraisers are being more conservative now, but more accurate. Appraisers have a lot of pressure on them from lenders and Realtors

[twoshort]

Well, I don't know if I would agree with that. I just ran my house through on that site and it priced it $18K below what I am selling it for this week.

[Sailor]

The thing appraisers typically fail to accurately factor in is the condition/taste/style of the interior, especially the kitchens and baths. Not sure how you'd quantify the value of that intangible 'wow' factor that can cause one house to sell while numerous 'comparable' homes sits unsold, but it exists.