Little Rock Growth

[theman]

New census data shows that the Little Rock metro population has grown 4.2% since 2010 to just over 730,000. That's more than the national average of 3.9% and third largest in the state behind NWA with 10.2 and Jonesboro with 5.9.

[Arkanzin]

9 hours ago, theman said:

New census data shows that the Little Rock metro population has grown 4.2% since 2010 to just over 730,000. That's more than the national average of 3.9% and third largest in the state behind NWA with 10.2 and Jonesboro with 5.9.

That's very good news!  I read an article yesterday about 25 fast-growing metropolitan areas.  None of the metros in Arkansas were listed based on the criteria used in that article but the growth rate of all three was up there with those 25 listed.  We just need to improve in other areas to make the metros a choice location to continue the growth.  

[Architect]

10 hours ago, theman said:

New census data shows that the Little Rock metro population has grown 4.2% since 2010 to just over 730,000. That's more than the national average of 3.9% and third largest in the state behind NWA with 10.2 and Jonesboro with 5.9.

Excellent.  Is there a link to an article or the data?  Also, I believe that is to 2010 to 2014 numbers, not to 2015, correct?  I know Metroplan has noted that growth has slowed this decade from the two decades prior, bringing into question whether or not we'll be able to hit 800,000 by the 2020 census.

[LRU1967]

4 hours ago, Architect said:

Excellent.  Is there a link to an article or the data?  Also, I believe that is to 2010 to 2014 numbers, not to 2015, correct?  I know Metroplan has noted that growth has slowed this decade from the two decades prior, bringing into question whether or not we'll be able to hit 800,000 by the 2020 census.

The article was on the front page of yesterday's Democrat. 

[Architect]

4 hours ago, LRU1967 said:

The article was on the front page of yesterday's Democrat. 

Ah!  Very well...I get the paper on my iPad, but missed yesterday's edition.  I'll check it out.  Thanks!

[Architect]

Metroplan released their annual report..."2016 Demographic Review and Outlook."  I haven't had a chance to study the content, but you can at the following link:

http://www.metroplan.temp1000.com/files/53/DemographicReview2016.pdf

[ArkansasTraveler]

18 hours ago, Architect said:

Metroplan released their annual report..."2016 Demographic Review and Outlook."  I haven't had a chance to study the content, but you can at the following link:

http://www.metroplan.temp1000.com/files/53/DemographicReview2016.pdf

Only a few hundred to go before Little Rock finally hits 200,000!

[skirby]

Buffalo Business First has a computer program that takes demographic data and determines the population of metro areas. It shows the Little Rock metro area with a population of 740,222 as of 1/01/2017 and a projected 1/01/2018 population of 745,992.

[Architect]

4 hours ago, skirby said:

Buffalo Business First has a computer program that takes demographic data and determines the population of metro areas. It shows the Little Rock metro area with a population of 740,222 as of 1/01/2017 and a projected 1/01/2018 population of 745,992.

Cool.  Do you have a link (is this online)?

[skirby]

7 minutes ago, Architect said:

Cool.  Do you have a link (is this online)?

Go to Buffalo Business  http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2017/01/11/population-milestones-loom-for-25-major-u-s.html  and there is a search box at the bottom where you can check out the 108 metros over 500,000.

[LR_Nomad]

19 hours ago, skirby said:

Go to Buffalo Business  http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/news/2017/01/11/population-milestones-loom-for-25-major-u-s.html  and there is a search box at the bottom where you can check out the 108 metros over 500,000.

Thanks for the link, some interesting data there, will be nice to break the 750k barrier in the next couple years.  Looks like NWA continues to be one of the fastest projected growing metros in the nation.  

[Architect]

I'll admit I was geeking out and perusing the Metroplan website, and found a lot of links/resources there on local growth.  One section was about projected growth for the Little Rock MSA.  Metroplan is projecting the following:

2020   752,000

2030   834,000

I thought I saw another online resource that was posted here a few years ago that projected when each metro would hit one million.  I thought LR was in the 2030's, but that may be wrong.  Either way, it's projected to hit one million before NWA...but, it's just a prediction.

[vbfl85]

Metroplan estimates Little Rocks population at 201k for 2018.

 

http://metroplan.org/sites/default/files/media/publications/DemographicReview2018.pdf

[Architect]

14 hours ago, vbfl85 said:

Metroplan estimates Little Rocks population at 201k for 2018.

 

http://metroplan.org/sites/default/files/media/publications/DemographicReview2018.pdf

Wow.  Finally, that benchmark may have been crossed!  It's been years in the making, ha!  

I'll be anxious to peruse the updated July 2018 Metroplan report...always interesting about growth and demographics.  Thanks for the heads-up!

p.s.  This indicates that NLR is still slightly ahead in terms of population versus Conway, something often discussed (i.e. "when" would Conway pass NLR).

[adman0468]

I thought Pulaski would have hit 400k at the same time. Probably next year.

[Architect]

I really wish there were the political will and political climate for greater Little Rock to consider creating a consolidated City-County government, whereas Little Rock would officially become a city of 400,000 people (in a metro of 750,000).  The city would rank #48,  in the U.S., between Arlington and Tulsa.

This combined city-county consolidated entity would be the exact same setup as Nashville, Louisville, Lexington and others.  The world is only getting smaller people...we're not in competition with North Little Rock and Sherwood.

[Arkanzin]

1 hour ago, Architect said:

I really wish there were the political will and political climate for greater Little Rock to consider creating a consolidated City-County government, whereas Little Rock would officially become a city of 400,000 people (in a metro of 750,000).  The city would rank #48,  in the U.S., between Arlington and Tulsa.

This combined city-county consolidated entity would be the exact same setup as Nashville, Louisville, Lexington and others.  The world is only getting smaller people...we're not in competition with North Little Rock and Sherwood.

Agreed!  I've been a proponent of this for years!  

[ndark]

Yes!  But where would this start?  The "powers that be" in the surrounding areas will not want it to happen. Consolidation only lessens or removes their power. 

I host people from other cities in the region occasionally and most are surprised when I tell them that across the river isn't actually the same city. 

[Architect]

42 minutes ago, ndark said:

Yes!  But where would this start?  The "powers that be" in the surrounding areas will not want it to happen. Consolidation only lessens or removes their power. 

I host people from other cities in the region occasionally and most are surprised when I tell them that across the river isn't actually the same city. 

Yes, that's the issue.  You win everyone's approval if and when you convince them we're better of together than apart.

[Walls99]

The Little Rock Wikipedia page has the 2018 population estimate for Little Rock proper at 200,655. Can anyone find a source for this? Major milestone for the city if true. 

[vbfl85]

2 hours ago, Walls99 said:

The Little Rock Wikipedia page has the 2018 population estimate for Little Rock proper at 200,655. Can anyone find a source for this? Major milestone for the city if true. 

I've seen conflicting reports.  I haven't seen the 200,655 number.  But I have seen these:

US Census: 197,881 (2018)

Metroplan: 201,053 (2018)

[Architect]

So here's an interesting link that was reported on in Talk Business & Politics (Robbie Brock)...it is an independent research group that tracks "Places With the Most Incoming Investments."  The title of the TB&P article touts Benton & Washington Counties with the "most growth" as they make the top of the list, the methodology regarding ranking follows their own formula (which they describe in the link).  Check out the data in the following link:

https://smartasset.com/investing/investment-calculator#arkansas/incoming

[scroll to the bottom after the links to see the map and ranking/list]

Central, NE and NWA are solidly represented as you will see in the map.  What is interesting (as the TB&P notes within the article) is that the total GDP growth from 2014-2017 for Pulaski County was MORE than the growth of Benton and Washington Counties combined.  That is NOT an insignificant statistic, as Pulaski County's population is right at 400,000 and the combined population for Benton and Washington is right at 500,000.  I think the real estate/housing starts data are interesting as well. 

[Architect]

The U.S. Census Bureau just released updated population estimates through July, 2019 - the last report before the 2020 Census.

• Arkansas (2010-2019)
  • grew from 2,916,031 to 3,017,804 (3.5%)
• Central Arkansas Metro (2010-2019)
  • grew from 699,790 to 742,384 (6.1%)
    • 78th largest in the U.S.
  • Pulaski County (2010-2019)
    • grew from 382,749 to 391,911 (2.4%)
  • Saline County (2010-2019)
    • grew from 107,118 to 122,437 (14.3%)
  • Faulkner County (2010-2019)
    • grew from 113,237 to 126,007 (11.3%)
  • Lonoke County (2010-2019)
    • grew from 68,356 to 73,309 (7.8%)
• NWA Metro (2010-2019)
  • grew from 440,121 to 534,904 (21.5%)
    • 107th largest in the U.S.
    • 13th fastest growing metro in the U.S. between 2010-2019
  • Benton County (2010-2019)
    • grew from 221,348-279,141 (26.1%)
  • Washington County (2010-2019)
    • grew from 203,050 to 239,187 (17.8%)

A few other notes/tidbits:

• The Talk Business article noted that slowing birth rates are continuing to impact growth across the U.S. (including the LR-NLR-Conway metro), but ironically, NWA birth rates are relatively high, and the death rates are relatively low, furthering their growth rate.
• Growth of the Central Arkansas metro is about average for metros of its size (between 500,000 and 1,000,000)
  • but is being impacted by slowing birth rates nationwide
• I had hoped that by 2020, Central Arkansas would hit the following targets:
  • LR-NLR-Conway Metro at 750,000 (this is a realistic target given the 2019 estimate at 742,000)
  • Pulaski County at 400,000 (seems to have stalled right at 392,000 per estimates)
  • Little Rock at 200,000 (this is also a realistic target as prior census estimates were 199,000 or so, but slowing birth rates may undermine this right before the census)

[Architect]

Thinking out loud relative to the 2020 Census...has anyone thought about the possibility, unfortunately, of Pine Bluff's status and declining growth, and if it's possible that it could lose its independent MSA status?  If so, would Jefferson County role into the Little Rock MSA?  I know those decisions aren't subjective, and they're data-driven (I think it has to do with what percentage of a counties population commutes to the central county).  In fact, the condition of Pine Bluff's MSA is really contingent I think on OTHER counties that commute into Jefferson County, and any chance of it being added to LR MSA would have to be driven (pun intended) by a shift in commuting patterns from Jefferson to Pulaski County.

Even though it would technically add numbers to Little Rock's MSA, it would all of a sudden be a drag on growth.  Frankly, I'd prefer that not to happen as that would mean things are going from bad to worse in Jefferson County, but who knows.

[theman]

On 5/1/2020 at 10:06 AM, Architect said:

Thinking out loud relative to the 2020 Census...has anyone thought about the possibility, unfortunately, of Pine Bluff's status and declining growth, and if it's possible that it could lose its independent MSA status?  If so, would Jefferson County role into the Little Rock MSA?  I know those decisions aren't subjective, and they're data-driven (I think it has to do with what percentage of a counties population commutes to the central county).  In fact, the condition of Pine Bluff's MSA is really contingent I think on OTHER counties that commute into Jefferson County, and any chance of it being added to LR MSA would have to be driven (pun intended) by a shift in commuting patterns from Jefferson to Pulaski County.

Even though it would technically add numbers to Little Rock's MSA, it would all of a sudden be a drag on growth.  Frankly, I'd prefer that not to happen as that would mean things are going from bad to worse in Jefferson County, but who knows.

I don’t know if enough people travel in from Jefferson County for it to be added to the MSA if it lost it’s own MSA designation. There are many people who live in Pulaski County that drive to Jefferson Country for work. We’ll have to see if the casino stabilizes the population in the county. That won’t affect what happens with this census.

If any county would be added to the MSA it would be White County. There seems to be a lot of commuting from there to Pulaski County. It will be interesting to see how the count comes out, especially with covid-19 surely affecting the count.